Fears grow across the Atlantic over Brexit fallout

Kamal Ahmed

Economics editor

@bbckamalon

 

Nearly all the possible trading relationships between Britain and the European Union following Brexit would be less favourable than staying in the European Union, according to an influential US think tank.

 

The Rand Corporation study said the worst option would be a "no deal".

 

That would leave the UK economy 4.9% poorer by 2029. "No deal" would also have a negative effect on the EU economy, but it would be "relatively minor".

 

Full story: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-42315280

 

-- © Copyright BBC 2017-12-12

The chickens are pouring into the roost now. 

Rand has clearly not factored into their analysis the indomitable spirit of the British People.

Keep calm 

       and

put the kettle on

Of course all trading relations would be worse then what they have now. Seems normal to me why give them something better if they want to leave. Seems totally illogical and yes the UK will suffer of course they need the EU more then the EU needs them trading wise. They are just a small country and will lose out a lot. But at least they are free (did i not read somewhere they would keep most EU laws). So worse trading opportunities and still keeping most EU laws.. seems like a lot of freedom *LOL*

3 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

Rand has clearly not factored into their analysis the indomitable spirit of the British People.

rum?

Talk about stating the bleeding obvious!  We all know we are going to be worse off but that is what the savvy people of Britain voted for.

(did i not read somewhere they would keep most EU laws).

if you did you read wrong

*"LOL"

Just now, Happy enough said:

(did i not read somewhere they would keep most EU laws).

if you did you read wrong

Really?  So when the government conceded that the EU laws would be cut and pasted into English law that was just a joke was it?  Not all laws but certainly most of them.

1 minute ago, dunroaming said:

Really?  So when the government conceded that the EU laws would be cut and pasted into English law that was just a joke was it?  Not all laws but certainly most of them.

the ones we choose?

*well those living there, think i lost my right to vote along time ago 555. 

1 minute ago, Happy enough said:

the ones we choose?

Well none have been quoted yet and with the negotiations for a trade deal I expect we will have to abide by all EU laws and maybe even more!

25 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

Really?  So when the government conceded that the EU laws would be cut and pasted into English law that was just a joke was it?  Not all laws but certainly most of them.

No you need to read the full commitment.  Once they are incorporated the UK Lawmakers can then accept/reject as they see fit.  This is called taking back the control of your Country.  You also need to re-read the Rand Corporation "possible" scenario.  But, I have said many times and I will say again.  NO ONE KNOWS what the outcome will be, less these so called experts, who are inclined to spout their opinion without responsibility for the outcome.

What an amazingly astute conclusion. But it only considers the UK / EU trade relationship. Not any new ones.  Project Fear from afar .

18 minutes ago, robertson468 said:

But, I have said many times and I will say again.  NO ONE KNOWS what the outcome will be, less these so called experts, who are inclined to spout their opinion without responsibility for the outcome.

True but there is a real shortage of "experts" saying that the UK is going to be better off!  In fact I can't think of any.

 

20 minutes ago, robertson468 said:

This is called taking back the control of your Country.

Have you seen the current state of play after Fridays latest developments?  Why not have a word with Nigel about that.  If you think that that is taking back control then you must be witnessing a very different Brexit to the one the rest of us are seeing.

5 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

Rand has clearly not factored into their analysis the indomitable spirit of the British People.

OH YEAH, MOANING AND GROANING

 

It's the EU's fault . It could have been an economic relationship like before the EU or like Norway , Sweden & Switserland have.

3 hours ago, soalbundy said:

rum?

That might explain the outcome of the referendum.

I think it is fairly clear that the folk who voted for Brexit in old-industrial GB, in quite large part felt that todays Economic status-quo doesn't really serve them - so I suspect they don't give a damn about trying to maintain it! I also suspect that there's more folk out there pissed at the idea of the elite corporations trying to keep their trade relations unchanged, and that when it comes to 39 billion as a getout bill, they aren't likely to be out there saying it is a great deal. The sentiment is more likely '<deleted>'em - walk away and make them bring the begging bowl'.

2 hours ago, jobwolf said:

OH YEAH, MOANING AND GROANING

 

Just like we moaned and groaned helping to bale most of the present EU members out during WW2.

 

Festering, ungrateful bludgers, I wouldn't give them a penny.

 

1 hour ago, BuaBS said:

It's the EU's fault . It could have been an economic relationship like before the EU or like Norway , Sweden & Switserland have.

It could still be that. The UK would just have to agree to pay the EU and abide by free movement of people and and all other applicable EU rules and regulations which apply to the single market as do the Norwegians and the Swiss. And the UK wouldn't even have to worry about having a say in EU policy. That would be a relief. As for Sweden, it happens to be a member of the EU.

Too many moving parts for my peanut brain but it seems to reach a conclusion of the obvious.  The EU will be as vindictive and viscous as possible all the while saying they are not. The Rand Corporation makes no mention about the ability of the UK to make trade deals with the rest of the world without EU interference. Also I don't fully understand the duty implications on trade.  With the UK importing more goods from the EU than the EU imports from them would they actually not end up further ahead in total amount of tax taken in. Can they not use this extra money to create programs that will help UK exporters. 

1 minute ago, Ulic said:

Too many moving parts for my peanut brain but it seems to reach a conclusion of the obvious.

The EU will be as vindictive and viscous as possible all the while saying they are not. The Rand

Corporation makes no mention about the ability of the UK to make trade deals with the rest of

the world without EU interference. Also I don't fully understand the duty implications on trade.

With the UK importing more goods from the EU than the EU imports from them wound they

actually not end up further ahead in total amount of tax taken in. Can they not use this extra

money to create programs that will help UK exporters. 

Because the UK really doesn't need these imports so won't be getting them from the EU or elsewhere?

I think the EU is worried about a long term domino effect. What if Norway, Switzerland, entered into a free trade relationship with the UK instead of the EU. I am sure many in both countries are tired of being under the boot of the EU and would prefer a trade agreement without

the free movement and contributions to the EU budget. Plenty of dissatisfaction in Holland, Austria and Italy. What if they were to join that group. What if the UK recognizes Spain's indipendant regions. How much longer until the Greek financial problem becomes untenable for Germany

and the responsible former Soviet Union countries who have joined the EU. When will they say enough. I know that is way too many "what ifs" but that is what I am saying. Too many moving parts.  If I were the UK I would go for the hard Brexit, no divorce settlement money and tell the EU you will  be as tough on the EU as the EU is on the UK. Ireland does most of its trading with the UK not the EU and they will now be a contributing country not a receiving country. There will be lots of  internal discussions there. We live in interesting times.

Until the actual break and the resulting settling down period. The Economic effect on the UK is an unknown. It may be negative, positive or neutral that,s economics. All the fluctuations currently happening are the result of Market manipulators profit taking at the expense of the UK Taxpayer.

I prefer a wait an see approach. I personally do not think the UK will be the last to leave the EU.

9 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

As for Sweden, it happens to be a member of the EU.

Yes you are right . I was thinking about still having their own currency.

11 hours ago, korkenzieher said:

I think it is fairly clear that the folk who voted for Brexit in old-industrial GB, in quite large part felt that todays Economic status-quo doesn't really serve them - so I suspect they don't give a damn about trying to maintain it! I also suspect that there's more folk out there pissed at the idea of the elite corporations trying to keep their trade relations unchanged, and that when it comes to 39 billion as a getout bill, they aren't likely to be out there saying it is a great deal. The sentiment is more likely '<deleted>'em - walk away and make them bring the begging bowl'.

Without wishing to disparage the British voter, I am not sure that there was such a degree of economic nous for which you give them credit - on both sides of the argument. My experience is that the degree of debate you see on TV is not reflective of the information at hand with the wider public. Arguments about bendy bananas and the ECHR and other such non issues seemed to be dominant themes (memes) during the run-up to the referendum. 

 

As for Elite corporations trying to maintain the status quo, again that doesn't really hold water - or, at least, it shouldn't, when you look at the main backers of Brexit such as Lord Rothemere, James Dyson, Arron Banks and numerous shadowy elites.  

On 12/12/2017 at 7:37 PM, soalbundy said:

rum?

Or  Dandy  Lion   Whine  ?

face  fact !  The   Bulldog  era   has  long  passed  ! 

1 hour ago, Dumbastheycome said:

face  fact !  The   Bulldog  era   has  long  passed  ! 

That's what Galtieri and Argentina thought!

Another brillant alarmist prediction, intended to fear,  from the Wall Street gurus,  who never saw the crisis in 2007-2008 emerging ?