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Undercurrents of instability despite Pheu Thai ‘loyalty pledge’


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Undercurrents of instability despite Pheu Thai ‘loyalty pledge’

By ATTAYUTH BOOTSRIPOOM 
THE NATION 

 

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Prayuth Siripanit leads Pheu Thai Party ex-MPs to provide well wishing at the party's headquarters on Wednesday

 

THE VISIT on Wednesday by local politicians to Pheu Thai Party’s headquarters was graced by sweet New Year blessings and certainly wishes for the upcoming election.

 

Some former MPs went to bless Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan, one of the party’s active key figures and, one of the leading candidates to be chosen party leader for the next election.

 

On the same day, former PM Chavalit Yongchaiyudh also declared his support for the party when Pheu Thai politicians paid him a visit.

 

But when Prayuth Siripanit led the Northeast-based ex-MPs to pledge “life-long loyalty”, the third incarnation of the Thaksin Shinawatra-founded party was assured of the support of Isaan MPs ahead of the election.

 

Prayuth is a political heavyweight – a veteran politician, a former minister, and a key campaigner behind drafting the notorious blanket amnesty bill that triggered the fall of the Yingluck Shinawatra government.

 

The amnesty fiasco might erode his credibility but he continues to maintain control over his stronghold and hence was able to lead such a pledge of loyalty. But to what extent will these Isaan MPs stay with the most obstructed party under the junta, which still bans political gatherings and obliges parties to “update” their membership list in a way much seen as a requirement to reset?

Going with a military-leaning end of the spectrum becomes an undeniably good choice for political survival. The Sasomsap clan and the Palangchon group have the potential to detach from the Pheu Thai Party, let alone Bhumjaithai, Chart Thai Pattana and the Machima blocs.

 

Prayuth may hold a tight grip on the Isaan MPs group, Pheu Thai Party’s strongest area, but the emergence of internal conflicts would likely shake the party’s regional stability.

 

Many Pheu Thai members, particularly key red-shirt figures, want to replace Prayuth in order to hold power in such an influential region once the election process is underway.

 

When a party can nominate only one candidate per constituency, local ex-MPs and red shirts would have to compete at their best to gain the seats.

 

Each side has their own sense of belonging. The red-shirt leaders think that they have done their job in keeping up with the masses against the military coup. The ex-MPs, meanwhile, can still participate in community projects and activities although barred from formal political movements.

 

This is only the beginning of internal Pheu Thai conflict in its largest stronghold – even when the promised election remains murky to all.

The moves of Prayuth, Sudarat or Chavalit could hint at the party’s path.

 

Lifelong loyalty, though sweet, is merely another political discourse and marks the beginning of political uncertainty ahead of the election.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30336131

 

 
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-- © Copyright The Nation 2018-01-14
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7 minutes ago, robblok said:

I wonder how many will keep loyal knowing their chances to be in the next government are slim and by jumping ship they could secure a seat in government and make money again. Will be interesting to see how things turn out. 

Dont forget after Bhumjaithai had broken away and joined the Democrats to form a government in 2008 they got hammered at the 2011 election, winning only 34 seats. Issan people and northerners remember those who betray PheuaThai. No doubt those same MPs wil bear that in mind.

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1 minute ago, bannork said:

Dont forget after Bhumjaithai had broken away and joined the Democrats to form a government in 2008 they got hammered at the 2011 election, winning only 34 seats. Issan people and northerners remember those who betray PheuaThai. No doubt those same MPs wil bear that in mind.

Even if those who break away get hammered.. they still have 4 years in goverment to get money. What good is it to spend all that money to control your people and not being able to get your money back. The PTP has been out of power for a while and it looks that without support of an other party they will not get into power again. So that would mean 8 years of no income for those guys... (the 4 that passed and the 4 that follow).

 

With income I mean income from being in power (corruption) not the salary from Thaksin. I think it will be pretty tempting for them. Not that I want an army party to be in power but I think its pretty tempting. I doubt that this year given the laws the PTP could really form a government. A lot will depend on money.

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1 minute ago, robblok said:

Even if those who break away get hammered.. they still have 4 years in goverment to get money. What good is it to spend all that money to control your people and not being able to get your money back. The PTP has been out of power for a while and it looks that without support of an other party they will not get into power again. So that would mean 8 years of no income for those guys... (the 4 that passed and the 4 that follow).

 

With income I mean income from being in power (corruption) not the salary from Thaksin. I think it will be pretty tempting for them. Not that I want an army party to be in power but I think its pretty tempting. I doubt that this year given the laws the PTP could really form a government. A lot will depend on money.

They won't be elected as MPs if they break away from PT. The people will not elect them.

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1 hour ago, bannork said:

They won't be elected as MP's if they break away from PT. The people will not elect them.

 

The people will either vote for the choice given out by the PTP or strangely enough they can vote for somebody else or even spoil the ballot paper.

 

It is not necessarily a command from above that they must ONLY vote for the person who is chosen for them.

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3 hours ago, robblok said:

Yes but if they break away after the election.. or is that impossible ? Its what the Bhumjaithai did. 

Bhumjaithai didnt break away after an election. They broke away after their party PPP was dissolved by the courts leaving them free to join its successor Pheua Thai or defect as some MPS did to join Abhisit. The people who had voted for those MPs s memebers  of PPP, Thaksin's party, were naturally aggrieved and punished Bhumjaithai at the next election.

 

Edited by bannork
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1 hour ago, billd766 said:

 

The people will either vote for the choice given out by the PTP or strangely enough they can vote for somebody else or even spoil the ballot paper.

 

It is not necessarily a command from above that they must ONLY vote for the person who is chosen for them.

Thaksin has won the hearts of the north-east, most of the north and the poor in urban areas. I can't stand the guy but to think those voters won't vote for his next party is to believe in fairies.

Will he give up politics? I doubt it. He has nothing to lose and probably still harbours hopes of returning one day.

 

Voting figures in 2001

Party Votes  % Seats
List Const Total
Thai Rak Thai 11,634,495 40.6 48 200 248
Democrat Party 7,610,789 26.6 31 97 128
New Aspiration Party 2,008,945 07.0 8 28 36
National Development Party 1,755,476 06.1 7 22 29
Thai Nation Party 1,523,807 05.3 6 35 41
Liberal Integrity Party     0 14 14
Citizen's Party     0 2 2
Social Action Party     0 1 1
Thai Motherland Party     0 1 1
Total 28,629,202   100 400 500

 

Voting percentages in 2005 election:

Thai Loves Thais Party (Phak Thai Rak Thai) 60.7375%

Democrat Party (Phak Prachatipat)18.396%

 

 

Election 2011

 
Parties Constituency Proportional TOTAL
Votes % Seats Votes % Seats Seats %
Pheu Thai 12,211,604 44.3 204 15,744,190 48.41 61 265 53.0%
Democrat 8,907,140 32.3 115 11,433,762 35.15 44 159 31.8%
Bhumjaithai 3,123,567 11.3 29 1,281,577 3.94 5 34 6.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, bannork said:

They won't be elected as MPs if they break away from PT. The people will not elect them.

 

That may perhaps be true, but exactly why?

 

Is it because of the personalities and their longer-term solid balanced development manifesto?

 

Or would it be because of possible loss of immediate handouts?

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3 minutes ago, scorecard said:

 

That may perhaps be true, but exactly why?

 

Is it because of the personalities and their longer-term solid balanced development manifesto?

 

Or would it be because of possible loss of immediate handouts?

Loyalty to the party that has offered the most benefits to them in terms of policies.

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9 minutes ago, scorecard said:

 

And no longer-term real development, better education, more higher paid job opportunities, etc.

I'm not defending Thaksin's policies, I'm just pointing out he has won the hearts of most working classThais and it will be difficult for any other party to win those hearts unless they follow the same populist policies. Something Prayuth seems to be doing now with his large budget handouts and dependency on the Agriculture Ministry to raise the price of crops.

Abhisit refuses to resign as party leader in spite of losing successive elections and boycotting others. Suthep is supporting Prayuth to be PM again, splitting the party further. I can't see any hope in the Democrats, especially with the death of Dr Surin, the one charismatic figure they had.

 

Edited by bannork
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Interesting article and thread.

 

I think the key factor will be who Thaksin picks as leader, going into the election, and will it be another family-member or another loyal-outsider like Samak, or someone completely different ?  Negotiations are clearly now underway, hence the jockeying for position & declarations of loyalty, described in the OP.

 

Also whether he will continue to fund the party, given that the military (and their backers, whoever they really are) are clearly determined not to permit his return, he may be getting tired of it all.

 

I don't have any answers, but look forward to watching what goes on, this year.  And hope that it stays peaceful.

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correct me if I am wrong but didnt they change the law so that thaksin cant run a party or form one, if thats the case then he will get no say in what they do or be paying them, ptp/the reds  will have to do it all themselves

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