Brexit has created chaos in Britain – nobody voted for this

[simoh1490]

Just now, aright said:

So what is the link between this and Brexit?

A reduction in policing numbers and reduced social spending in the current economic climate can only be magnified in a future environment where taxes are even higher and social spending is reduced even further:

 

"Sex offences, robberies and assaults have also increased significantly across London in the last 12 months, but senior officers have stressed that the pattern is not unique to the capital and is being replicated across the country.

Police leaders have consistently warned the government that proposed cuts to force budgets threaten to undermine the fight against violent crime but the Government has insisted on driving through cost cutting reforms".

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/13/violent-crime-rise-every-corner-country-figures-suggest/

[aright]

1 minute ago, simoh1490 said:

A reduction in policing numbers and reduced social spending in the current economic climate can only be magnified in a future environment where taxes are even higher and social spending is reduced even further:

 

"Sex offences, robberies and assaults have also increased significantly across London in the last 12 months, but senior officers have stressed that the pattern is not unique to the capital and is being replicated across the country.

Police leaders have consistently warned the government that proposed cuts to force budgets threaten to undermine the fight against violent crime but the Government has insisted on driving through cost cutting reforms".

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/13/violent-crime-rise-every-corner-country-figures-suggest/

Cost cutting reforms are a constant.

The last Labour Government guaranteed reduced social spending  for a long time. Have you seen the deficit?

Current problems have little to do with Brexit

I repeat where is your hard evidence this has something to do with Brexit?

[simoh1490]

1 minute ago, aright said:

Cost cutting reforms are a constant.

The last Labour Government guaranteed reduced social spending  for a long time. Have you seen the deficit?

Current problems have little to do with Brexit

I repeat where is your hard evidence this has something to do with Brexit?

Oh please!

 

Cost cutting reforms are not a constant under Labour governments, in fact the obverse is historically true. "Dear chief secretary, I'm afraid to tell you there's no money left", Liam Burne, Treasury Secretary - 2010,  

 

Current UK economic problems do not have much to do with Brexit but future ones will if Brexit proceeds as thought by most commentators.....isn't this where we started the discussion, I'm not having another cyclical debate!

[aright]

Just now, simoh1490 said:

Oh please!

 

Cost cutting reforms are not a constant under Labour governments, in fact the obverse is historically true. "Dear chief secretary, I'm afraid to tell you there's no money left", Liam Burne, Treasury Secretary - 2010,  

 

Current UK economic problems do not have much to do with Brexit but future ones will if Brexit proceeds as thought by most commentators.....isn't this where we started the discussion, I'm not having another cyclical debate!

As you wish!

[Khun Han]

7 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

You see there you go again, I accuse you of deflection and what's your response, to accuse me of deflection, it's a pathetic and kindergardenish way to debate anything.

 

Every time a study or report showing the economic impact of Brexit is put forward you always manage to avoid its contents and point to other reports where the results were wrong. You almost never acknowledge that only some items in these reports were inaccurate or that the timing was off, significantly you repeatedly fail to acknowledge that the overarching principle in all of them is actually correct, that Brexit will result in a significant hit to the economy and we have been saying that for many many months. People don't want to debate a topic as serious and important as Brexit with other people who ignore fact and best efforts economic forecasts, such people simply don't have anything worthwhile or useful to say.

 

This is getting very boring. You just keep on claiming that the forecasts are right because they are made by experts. I point out (entirely correctly) that these 'experts' record so far on brexit is a 100% fail. I have also gone into detail many times as to why their predictions keep on failing: they use a highly-flawed, increasingly discredited economic model. Even the BOE's chief forecaster, Andy Haldane, has admitted that their system is somewhat inadequate. But ThaiVisa's simoh1490 just ignores all the evidence that's staring him in the face, and just keeps repeating his standard deflections of 'timing' and 'experts'. The Boy Who Cried Wolf, and hardly anybody believes him any more.

[Khun Han]

7 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

Oh please!

 

Cost cutting reforms are not a constant under Labour governments, in fact the obverse is historically true. "Dear chief secretary, I'm afraid to tell you there's no money left", Liam Burne, Treasury Secretary - 2010,  

 

Current UK economic problems do not have much to do with Brexit but future ones will if Brexit proceeds as thought by most commentators.....isn't this where we started the discussion, I'm not having another cyclical debate!

 

But all your debates on brexit are going to be cyclic, because all you ever back your arguments up with are your discredited 'commentators' and 'experts'. And, when they are yet again proven wrong by the latest actual economic figures (not forecasts), you deflect with 'only the timing is wrong'. A debate doesn't get any more circular than this.

Edited March 15, 2018 by Khun Han

[simoh1490]

22 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

This is getting very boring. You just keep on claiming that the forecasts are right because they are made by experts. I point out (entirely correctly) that these 'experts' record so far on brexit is a 100% fail. I have also gone into detail many times as to why their predictions keep on failing: they use a highly-flawed, increasingly discredited economic model. Even the BOE's chief forecaster, Andy Haldane, has admitted that their system is somewhat inadequate. But ThaiVisa's simoh1490 just ignores all the evidence that's staring him in the face, and just keeps repeating his standard deflections of 'timing' and 'experts'. The Boy Who Cried Wolf, and hardly anybody believes him any more.

So every economic forecast ever produced on Brexit has been 100% wrong! Really! 

 

You see that's the level and type of comment that makes any debate (on any subject) not only impossible but also not worth having

[Khun Han]

1 minute ago, simoh1490 said:

So every economic forecast ever produced on Brexit has been 100% wrong! Really! 

 

You see that's the level and type of comment that makes any debate (on any subject) not only impossible but also not worth having

 

Then produce one which has got things right so far, and not another prediction. That's the real reason why these debates are impossible: I argue with real-time facts, you argue with speculation made by people who keep getting it wrong.

[simoh1490]

8 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Then produce one which has got things right so far, and not another prediction. That's the real reason why these debates are impossible: I argue with real-time facts, you argue with speculation made by people who keep getting it wrong.

Your argument now is that you won't support economic forecasts by any body, government, international, private, academic because they always get them wrong and you prefer only the current moment, the real-time -- perhaps one of the reasons why that is so is because team Brexit has never been able to produce a single economic forecast or model that has withstood scrutiny, including that by some mad professor from Wales! Yet you're quite happy as always to demand that others produce such forecasts so that you can shoot holes in the parts that are not 100% correct and thereby invalidate the entire forecast, I ask you, does that really seem like an intelligent thing to do! 

 

Your attitude on this is troubling, as indeed it has been for almost the two years we've been participating in this scrum. Other aspects that are troubling include your fellow poster who can only convey his thoughts by posting cartoons and pictures that carry slogans and a third who is unable to get even that far and is thus reduced to constant clicking of laughing emoticons alone. I ask myself, are these the people who are worthy adversaries in an important debate on a critical subject, people who after it is all over would join us down the pub and congratulate each other on a well fought battle,  I really really don't think so. 

 

[StreetCowboy]

23 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Then produce one which has got things right so far, and not another prediction. That's the real reason why these debates are impossible: I argue with real-time facts, you argue with speculation made by people who keep getting it wrong.

There's a difference between being wrong, and being inaccurate.  In any real world measurement there is some degree of error, as I explained in another post some years ago, and I'll repeat the anecdote here.

 

I was walking down the road one day, and I noticed a workman taking remarkable care and diligence in measuring and cutting paving slabs.

"My good man, " I said, striking up a conversation with the tradesman "Did you know that at the National Physics Laboratory we can measure distances with an error of one millionth of an inch?"

"Nae good in this job, pal.  In this job, ye've got to be dead on."

[StreetCowboy]

4 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Your argument now is that you won't support economic forecasts by any body, government, international, private, academic because they always get them wrong and you prefer only the current moment, the real-time -- perhaps one of the reasons why that is so is because team Brexit has never been able to produce a single economic forecast or model that has withstood scrutiny, including that by some mad professor from Wales! Yet you're quite happy as always to demand that others produce such forecasts so that you can shoot holes in the parts that are not 100% correct and thereby invalidate the entire forecast, I ask you, does that really seem like an intelligent thing to do! 

 

Your attitude on this is troubling, as indeed it has been for almost the two years we've been participating in this scrum. Other aspects that are troubling include your fellow poster who can only convey his thoughts by posting cartoons and pictures that carry slogans and a third who is unable to get even that far and is thus reduced to constant clicking of laughing emoticons alone. I ask myself, are these the people who are worthy adversaries in an important debate on a critical subject, people who after it is all over would join us down the pub and congratulate each other on a well fought battle,  I really really don't think so. 

 

Internet discussions are the only credible argument against democracy

[Khun Han]

1 minute ago, simoh1490 said:

Your argument now is that you won't support economic forecasts by any body, government, international, private, academic because they always get them wrong and you prefer only the current moment, the real-time -- perhaps one of the reasons why that is so is because team Brexit has never been able to produce a single economic forecast or model that has withstood scrutiny, including that by some mad professor from Wales! Yet you're quite happy as always to demand that others produce such forecasts so that you can shoot holes in the parts that are not 100% correct and thereby invalidate the entire forecast, I ask you, does that really seem like an intelligent thing to do! 

 

Your attitude on this is troubling, as indeed it has been for almost the two years we've been participating in this scrum. Other aspects that are troubling include your fellow poster who can only convey his thoughts by posting cartoons and pictures that carry slogans and a third who is unable to get even that far and is thus reduced to constant clicking of laughing emoticons alone. I ask myself, are these the people who are worthy adversaries in an important debate on a critical subject, people who after it is all over would join us down the pub and congratulate each other on a well fought battle,  I really really don't think so. 

 

 

I will conditionally support economic forecasters when they stop relying on an outdated,  discredited economic model. Something which, imo,  they won't do because their sponsors don't want individual countries going down individual routes, because they lose control and and the profits get spread about, away from themselves.

 

As to the rest of your post, I prefer to let the mods clean up garbage.

[simoh1490]

Just now, Khun Han said:

 

I will conditionally support economic forecasters when they stop relying on an outdated,  discredited economic model. Something which, imo,  they won't do because their sponsors don't want individual countries going down individual routes, because they lose control and and the profits get spread about, away from themselves.

 

As to the rest of your post, I prefer to let the mods clean up garbage.

So now your position evolves to be one where you don't support any economic model from any organisation, governmental, international, academic or private, not only because they are ALL wrong but also because they are all sponsored by elements that oppose your view, some secret joined up society that is out to overthrow the country perhaps! Really! 

[Khun Han]

6 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

So now your position evolves to be one where you don't support any economic model from any organisation, governmental, international, academic or private, not only because they are ALL wrong but also because they are all sponsored by elements that oppose your view, some secret joined up society that is out to overthrow the country perhaps! Really! 

 

The international banking organisations which own the UK's huge debt can be quite secretive in their workings, but they are not 'secret societies'. Neither are the huge multinational corporations which own much of the UK's industry. These groups tend to set much of the agenda for the obvious reasons that they are able to do so, and it suits their interests to do so.

Edited March 15, 2018 by Khun Han

[StreetCowboy]

3 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

The international banking organisations which own the UK's huge debt can be quite secretive in their workings, but they are not 'secret societies'. Neither are the huge multinational corporations which own much of the UK's industry. These groups tend to set much of the agenda for the obvious reasons that they are able to do so, and it suits their interests to do so.

Is this "Class Struggle" by a different name?

After the rule by the bourgeoisie comes rule by the proletariat?

 

Are we looking at throwing off the shackles imposed on us by foreigners through unequal treaties, and uniting to take our place at the heart of the world stage, free and united in our defence of our people and our homeland?

 

I'm a traditionalist at heart, too.

 

SC

[simoh1490]

1 minute ago, Khun Han said:

 

The international banking organisations which own the UK's huge debt can be quite secretive in their workings, but they are not 'secret societies'. Neither are the huge multinational corporations which own much of the UK's industry. These groups tend to set much of the agenda for the obvious reasons that they are able to do so, and it suits their interests to do so.

So the CBI, PWC, E&W Item Club, OBR, IMF, World Bank and all the other highly regarded bodies, they're all owned by the international banks that own UK debt, is that what you want us to believe? Really! No, I mean really really!

[CG1 Blue]

8 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

A reduction in policing numbers and reduced social spending in the current economic climate can only be magnified in a future environment where taxes are even higher and social spending is reduced even further:

 

"Sex offences, robberies and assaults have also increased significantly across London in the last 12 months, but senior officers have stressed that the pattern is not unique to the capital and is being replicated across the country.

Police leaders have consistently warned the government that proposed cuts to force budgets threaten to undermine the fight against violent crime but the Government has insisted on driving through cost cutting reforms".

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/13/violent-crime-rise-every-corner-country-figures-suggest/

You need to chill out a bit my friend. Are you genuinely this pessimistic, or are you just trying to win the argument by predicting as much doom and gloom as possible?

[StreetCowboy]

10 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

So the CBI, PWC, E&W Item Club, OBR, IMF, World Bank and all the other highly regarded bodies, they're all owned by the international banks that own UK debt, is that what you want us to believe? Really! No, I mean really really!

It's all the old-boys' club.  If it wasn't for them, we'd have the growth rate of the Indians, the productivity and working hours of the Germans, and the weather of the Caribbean.

 

Once we're out of the EU, we'll no longer have Old Etonians in charge, filling their own pockets at the public's expense, and we won't need workers' rights and a maximum working week because everyone will be working for the common good of the country.

 

Let's face it; if you can't predict economic growth to within better than 0.3% you might as well not bother, and just taking a flying leap blind.  What's the worst that could happen?

[simoh1490]

4 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

You need to chill out a bit my friend. Are you genuinely this pessimistic, or are you just trying to win the argument by predicting as much doom and gloom as possible?

I'm neither an optimist nor a pessimist when it comes to economics and the sociology impacts of an economy because the facts and trends speak for themselves, there's enough history around on these things to be able to draw unemotional conclusions. When the social safety net is withdrawn and when living standards are reduced, crime increases, I don't want it to be that way but that's certainly the way it's always been throughout history. And when government need to borrow more at times of increasing inflation, they have to pay more and that results in reduced services and higher taxes. I would like nothing more than to lose this argument and I hope and pray every day before I go to bed that I am wrong in my forecasts. Personally, I'd like to see the UK return to the serenity of the 1960's when everything was sweetness and light amongst the population, that would make me very happy, unfortunately, the evidence to date is almost entirly to the contrary.

[simoh1490]

7 minutes ago, StreetCowboy said:

It's all the old-boys' club.  If it wasn't for them, we'd have the growth rate of the Indians, the productivity and working hours of the Germans, and the weather of the Caribbean.

 

Once we're out of the EU, we'll no longer have Old Etonians in charge, filling their own pockets at the public's expense, and we won't need workers' rights and a maximum working week because everyone will be working for the common good of the country.

 

Let's face it; if you can't predict economic growth to within better than 0.3% you might as well not bother, and just taking a flying leap blind.  What's the worst that could happen?

It's an appalling thing I agree, families spending those huge amounts on fees to Oxbridge and Eton and they're producing graduates who make errors of that magnitude, they should demand refunds at a minimum.

 

And I've read somewhere that the recent cold weather in the UK is the fault of the remain group, apparently, they organised it in order to lower GDP and prove how Brexit is crippling the country's economy. Have those people no shame, is there no lengths they won't go to in order to defeat the will of the people.

[CG1 Blue]

28 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

the facts and trends speak for themselves, there's enough history around on these things to be able to draw unemotional conclusions.

 

Sorry, but this is incorrect.  There has never been a Brexit before.

 

29 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

When the social safety net is withdrawn and when living standards are reduced, crime increases

 

This is just your assumption of the impact of Brexit, before you know the outcome of negotiations, and before you know if the UK will strike meaningful trade deals with other nations, and completely ignoring the possibility of any positive impact of Brexit. That's pessimism in my book.

 

[simoh1490]

Just now, CG1 Blue said:

 

Sorry, but this is incorrect.  There has never been a Brexit before.

 

 

This is just your assumption of the impact of Brexit, before you know the outcome of negotiations, and before you know if the UK will strike meaningful trade deals with other nations, and completely ignoring the possibility of any positive impact of Brexit. That's pessimism in my book.

 

There is an economics picture that presents itself today and that is widely understood because it is the status quo.

 

There is then a series of economic forecasts which exist that attempt to estimate the impact of Brexit and extrapolate the status quo, into the future, these are models produced by a long list of government, private, academic and international bodies, separately and in some cases jointly. 

 

Those two things above are what I and most economists base their views of the economic future of the UK on, as and when things change that model may also change and perhaps a different picture will emerge. Right now there is no other picture, regardless of this being Brexit or anything else. If you have an economics model showing a more positive future scenario, please post a link to it so that we may all see it.

[StreetCowboy]

8 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

 

Sorry, but this is incorrect.  There has never been a Brexit before.

 

 

This is just your assumption of the impact of Brexit, before you know the outcome of negotiations, and before you know if the UK will strike meaningful trade deals with other nations, and completely ignoring the possibility of any positive impact of Brexit. That's pessimism in my book.

 

He explained the flow of logic already.

 

The UK already has meaningful trade deals with other countries, thanks to its membership of the EU, and some of those other countries may agree to continue trading on that basis, or may decide that as we're no longer part of the EU, they don't need to treat us so favourably.  Or they may decide for whatever reason to grant us more favourable deals.

 

Anyway, we've never tried it before, so let's give it a go.  What's the worst that could happen?

 

By the way - my recommendation for an investment opportunity? Boat chandlers in Calais.  At first, it might be difficult to repatriate the profits, but the black market will soon take care of that.

Remember - you heard it here first

 

SC

 

[sandyf]

On 3/12/2018 at 6:10 AM, Khun Han said:

 

All the information about what leaving the EU entailed was sent out to every household in the UK prior to the referendum.

Maybe you can post "All the information", I can't be the only one that got some sort of condensed version.

[simoh1490]

16 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

 

Sorry, but this is incorrect.  There has never been a Brexit before.

 

 

This is just your assumption of the impact of Brexit, before you know the outcome of negotiations, and before you know if the UK will strike meaningful trade deals with other nations, and completely ignoring the possibility of any positive impact of Brexit. That's pessimism in my book.

 

Just to add:

 

Why is it do you suppose that government is now trying to decide the size of the hit that the UK economy will take as a result of Brexit and not whether it there will be a hit or not? And why is it the Hammond last week when he addressed Parliament on this subject, didn't say anywhere that there may be a hidden financial upside that could potentially improve the country's purse and negate the need to borrow more and fill a large black hole? Was he being pessimistic or was he simply be a realist and stating fact!

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, CG1 Blue said:

You need to chill out a bit my friend. Are you genuinely this pessimistic, or are you just trying to win the argument by predicting as much doom and gloom as possible?

I think everyone understands that the UK is a deeply troubled, unhappy country and has been So for a long time. A huge underclass barely making way and inequality bordering on American levels of obscenity.

 

The thing is, Brexit will not fix this. It will make things significantly worse by making the economy perform worse than would otherwise be the case.

 

I see Unilever are moving to Rotterdam. They say Brexit was not a root cause. I beg to differ.

 

We had the German equivalent o for the CBI pointing out that time is up for businesses with complex supply chains. 

 

However, HOORAY! For the Brexiter in chief who has graciously agreed to 20 month transition rather than 24 months! What a BREAKTHROUGH ?

[Khun Han]

18 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Just to add:

 

Why is it do you suppose that government is now trying to decide the size of the hit that the UK economy will take as a result of Brexit and not whether it there will be a hit or not? And why is it the Hammond last week when he addressed Parliament on this subject, didn't say anywhere that there may be a hidden financial upside that could potentially improve the country's purse and negate the need to borrow more and fill a large black hole? Was he being pessimistic or was he simply be a realist and stating fact!

 

I assume that you're referring to the infamous, leaked, impact assessment? It's now come to light that the report wasn't even produced by the Treasury. It was produced, and leaked, by civil servants in an incomplete format not approved by the government. So it can be taken with a pinch of salt.

 

By the way, you do realise, dont you, that you have just done something (twice) that you got me suspended for doing? ie: allowing the forum software to remove an embedded quote.

Edited March 15, 2018 by Khun Han

[Grouse]

No bright people think Brexit is a good move. Why is that?

23 minutes ago, StreetCowboy said:

What's the worst that could happen?

We could be worse off not better off. If one takes a risk, the upside needs to be substantial to make the downside risk worthwhile. This gamble is not worth the risk

[simoh1490]

Just now, Khun Han said:

 

I assume that you're referring to the infamous, leaked, impact assessment? It's now come to light that the report wasn't even produced by the Treasury. It was produced, and leaked, by civil servants in an incomplete format not approved by the government. So it can be taken with a pinch of salt.

No I'm not referring to any one single report, instead, I'm talking about all of them which collectively should not be taken with anything other than a large ladle full of realism, you of course will dismiss them for the reasons stated earlier......your choice.

[Grouse]

2 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

I assume that you're referring to the infamous, leaked, impact assessment? It's now come to light that the report wasn't even produced by the Treasury. It was produced, and leaked, by civil servants in an incomplete format not approved by the government. So it can be taken with a pinch of salt.

So where is the official impact assessment. There isn't one. Why? It would either be untruthful or would demonstrate that a majority of the UK population are turnips.