What's with the Baht? ???

[simoh1490]

57 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

GDP up, more tourism, booming construction, you name it...and yet it feels the same as far as the average guy is concerned.

 

Why is that?

Because most if not all developed and developing countries have become oligarchies!

 

An overwhelming part (80 to 90%) of the new wealth created goes into very few pockets, those of the infamous 1%, who are even less than that, while the rest struggles to make ends meet.

 

 

Come on now, you can do better than that....your 80 to 90% figure can't be supported, even the concept can't be so. Every five day tourist stay puts money into the pockets of lots of small and average entities, hotels, restaurants, bars, car rental companies, tour operators, tips to everyone, etc. 

 

Ditto construction. Every condo building construct puts money into a raft of peoples pockets from cement companies to steel suppliers, windows manufacturers, furniture stores and not least of all, construction workers.

[soalbundy]

5 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Come on now, you can do better than that....your 80 to 90% figure can't be supported, even the concept can't be so. Every five day tourist stay puts money into the pockets of lots of small and average entities, hotels, restaurants, bars, car rental companies, tour operators, tips to everyone, etc. 

 

Ditto construction. Every condo building construct puts money into a raft of peoples pockets from cement companies to steel suppliers, windows manufacturers, furniture stores and not least of all, construction workers.

depending on the amount of their wages of course

[simoh1490]

18 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

depending on the amount of their wages of course

Since the country has to import Burmese labour in order to meet the staffing needs of the construction industry, given that Thai people don't want to do that job, presumably the wages aren't exactly lousy. I'm guessing that every large scale condominium block construction projects probably uses around fifty sub-contractors and supplier companies, not all of those people are oligarchs!

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, simoh1490 said:

Come on now, you can do better than that....your 80 to 90% figure can't be supported, even the concept can't be so. Every five day tourist stay puts money into the pockets of lots of small and average entities, hotels, restaurants, bars, car rental companies, tour operators, tips to everyone, etc. 

 

Ditto construction. Every condo building construct puts money into a raft of peoples pockets from cement companies to steel suppliers, windows manufacturers, furniture stores and not least of all, construction workers.

Not my numbers...

 

https://www.zmescience.com/other/economics/economic-inequality-one-percent-22012018/

Edited March 8, 2018 by Brunolem

[simoh1490]

16 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Not my numbers...

 

https://www.zmescience.com/other/economics/economic-inequality-one-percent-22012018/

A good analogy is the ownership of land in the UK, 95% of which we are led to believe is owned by the top 1% of the population. That leaves 5% of the land for the remaining 99% which seems to make an awfully large number of people seriously rich. Which of course makes my mind boggle at the thought of how wealthy the other 1% must be, if of course we are to believe such things in the first place.

[soalbundy]

4 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

A good analogy is the ownership of land in the UK, 95% of which we are led to believe is owned by the top 1% of the population. That leaves 5% of the land for the remaining 99% which seems to make an awfully large number of people seriously rich. Which of course makes my mind boggle at the thought of how wealthy the other 1% must be, if of course we are to believe such things in the first place.

95% seems to be an exaggeration but I could believe 80%. Yes the 'establishment' is incredibly rich and they rule behind the smoke of parliament which is why I find it so funny when the Brexiteers say they want their country back, they never had it in the first place. Of course the peasants can cause upsets with voting and referendums and such but on the whole they won't really move much although the establishment is careful to give them the idea that they have 'made a difference'. Democracy can be so much fun.

[simoh1490]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/britain-richest-people-own-uk-wealth-inequality-credit-suisse-oxfam-a7432076.html UK - richest 1% own 24% of the country's wealth.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/may/15/britains-richest-1-percent-own-same-as-bottom-55-population

UK - top 1% own as much wealth as bottom 55%.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/nov/14/worlds-richest-wealth-credit-suisse

World - richest 1% own half the planets wealth.

 

It's a numbers games really and not particularly meaningful when discussing economies.

[ExpatOilWorker]

11 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/britain-richest-people-own-uk-wealth-inequality-credit-suisse-oxfam-a7432076.html UK - richest 1% own 24% of the country's wealth.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/may/15/britains-richest-1-percent-own-same-as-bottom-55-population

UK - top 1% own as much wealth as bottom 55%.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/nov/14/worlds-richest-wealth-credit-suisse

World - richest 1% own half the planets wealth.

 

It's a numbers games really and not particularly meaningful when discussing economies.

All you need is $770.000 to join the 1% club. 

 

http://www.globalrichlist.com/wealth

[simoh1490]

2 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

All you need is $770.000 to join the 1% club. 

 

http://www.globalrichlist.com/wealth

It seems I'm number 133,446,004 but you can call me 004 for short, or you can call me ....

 

 

[Brunolem]

57 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/britain-richest-people-own-uk-wealth-inequality-credit-suisse-oxfam-a7432076.html UK - richest 1% own 24% of the country's wealth.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/may/15/britains-richest-1-percent-own-same-as-bottom-55-population

UK - top 1% own as much wealth as bottom 55%.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/nov/14/worlds-richest-wealth-credit-suisse

World - richest 1% own half the planets wealth.

 

It's a numbers games really and not particularly meaningful when discussing economies.

Still better than the US where 3 guys (Gates + Buffett + Bèzos) own as much as the lower 50% of the population (160 million persons)!

 

It is meaningful in the sense that it underlines the massive distorsions created by insane monetary policies, and it helps explaining the rise to power of so-called populist figures...

[Brunolem]

48 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

All you need is $770.000 to join the 1% club. 

 

http://www.globalrichlist.com/wealth

Yearly income, not wealth!

[ExpatOilWorker]

28 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

It seems I'm number 133,446,004 but you can call me 004 for short, or you can call me ....

 

 

Try run it with your annual income and you will surely raise a few million steps up the ranks.

[ExpatOilWorker]

3 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Yearly income, not wealth!

You can input both, but $770,000 on your bank account will grant you access to the 1% club.

 

$32,400 in yearly income is enough to enter the 1% club.

Edited March 8, 2018 by ExpatOilWorker

[Brunolem]

43 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

You can input both, but $770,000 on your bank account will grant you access to the 1% club.

 

$32,400 in yearly income is enough to enter the 1% club.

Then this 1% club is a very large one!

At least half of the people who own a piece of real estate in a major city are part of this club.

That must be another club...

The 1% I was refering to is a club whose members spend 770,000 dollars...on a watch!

 

[ExpatOilWorker]

16 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Then this 1% club is a very large one!

At least half of the people who own a piece of real estate in a major city are part of this club.

That must be another club...

The 1% I was refering to is a club whose members spend 770,000 dollars...on a watch!

 

The issue is that there are a lot of dirt poor people out there. Usually the house you live in does not count as wealth, it is a liability, not an asset.

In western countries most people don't own their own house, it is only their name on the title deed, but the bank owns it.

The watch buying club, is reserved to the 0.1%

Edited March 8, 2018 by ExpatOilWorker

[simoh1490]

10 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Then this 1% club is a very large one!

At least half of the people who own a piece of real estate in a major city are part of this club.

That must be another club...

The 1% I was refering to is a club whose members spend 770,000 dollars...on a watch!

 

And that was exactly the point I tried to make when you first started with this 1% nonsense - it doesn't matter to most people that the 1% own what they do, there's not much that can be done about that. The point is that the remaining 99% still have access to an extremely large piece of the action which is more than enough for most people. The top 1%, that's another problem entirely and honestly, why worry about things you can't change.

[Thian]

On 3/5/2018 at 4:41 PM, simoh1490 said:

Sane people on the otherhand will point to extreme Dollar weakness

Few years ago it was 1.5us$ against the euro...now it's 1.2 so it's not extreme weak.

[simoh1490]

4 minutes ago, Thian said:

Few years ago it was 1.5us$ against the euro...now it's 1.2 so it's not extreme weak.

Dollar strength or weakness is measured by its value on the Dollar Index, not against other currencies and especially not against the Euro, currently, it is at 89 so yes whereas 100 is the norm, it is extreme weakness! https://www.investing.com/quotes/us-dollar-index-streaming-chart

[Brunolem]

2 hours ago, Thian said:

Few years ago it was 1.5us$ against the euro...now it's 1.2 so it's not extreme weak.

It's not only the US dollar...it's a race to the bottom...

[theguyfromanotherforum]

Canadian dollar hitting new lows every day.

 

I thought British Pound was bad.

 

Yay!

 

 

[ExpatOilWorker]

3 minutes ago, theguyfromanotherforum said:

Canadian dollar hitting new lows every day.

 

I thought British Pound was bad.

 

Yay!

 

 

BIS singled out Canada among HK and China for the next banking crisis.

 

China, Canada and Hong Kong are among the economies most at risk of a banking crisis, according to early-warning indicators compiled by the Bank for International Settlements.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-11/china-at-risk-of-banking-crisis-in-bis-s-early-warning-signal

[theguyfromanotherforum]

1 hour ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

BIS singled out Canada among HK and China for the next banking crisis.

 

China, Canada and Hong Kong are among the economies most at risk of a banking crisis, according to early-warning indicators compiled by the Bank for International Settlements.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-11/china-at-risk-of-banking-crisis-in-bis-s-early-warning-signal

 

good find

[ExpatOilWorker]

13 hours ago, theguyfromanotherforum said:

 

good find

BIS, also referred to as the central bank of central banks, mention Canada and Thailand several times in their quarterly review.

 

Aggregate credit indicators point to vulnerabilities in several jurisdictions (Table 4, first two columns). Canada, China and Hong Kong SAR stand out, with both the credit-to-GDP gap and the DSR flashing red. For Canada and Hong Kong, these signals are reinforced by property price developments. The credit-to-GDP gap also flashes red in Switzerland, whereas the total DSR flashes red in Russia and Turkey. Credit conditions are also quite buoyant elsewhere. Credit-to-GDP gaps and/or the total DSR send amber signals in some advanced economies, such as France, Japan and Switzerland, as well as in several emerging market economies (EMEs). In Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, as well as some other countries, property price gaps underscore this signal. Some jurisdictions also exhibit some signs of high household sector vulnerabilities. In Korea, Russia and Thailand, the household sector DSR flashes red (Table 4, third column). In Thailand, the red signal for the household DSR is underlined by the property price indicator. Property prices have also been in elevated in Sweden and Canada, which exhibit an amber signal for the household DSR

BIS r_qt1803.pdf

[Banana7]

6 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

BIS, also referred to as the central bank of central banks, mention Canada and Thailand several times in their quarterly review.

 

Aggregate credit indicators point to vulnerabilities in several jurisdictions (Table 4, first two columns). Canada, China and Hong Kong SAR stand out, with both the credit-to-GDP gap and the DSR flashing red. For Canada and Hong Kong, these signals are reinforced by property price developments. The credit-to-GDP gap also flashes red in Switzerland, whereas the total DSR flashes red in Russia and Turkey. Credit conditions are also quite buoyant elsewhere. Credit-to-GDP gaps and/or the total DSR send amber signals in some advanced economies, such as France, Japan and Switzerland, as well as in several emerging market economies (EMEs). In Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, as well as some other countries, property price gaps underscore this signal. Some jurisdictions also exhibit some signs of high household sector vulnerabilities. In Korea, Russia and Thailand, the household sector DSR flashes red (Table 4, third column). In Thailand, the red signal for the household DSR is underlined by the property price indicator. Property prices have also been in elevated in Sweden and Canada, which exhibit an amber signal for the household DSR

BIS r_qt1803.pdf

Be sure to read page 50 of the above PDF. Especially, "In fact, in our sample and as a rule of thumb, the likelihood of a crisis emerging once the threshold for an indicator is breached is around 50%." So there is also 50% chance nothing happens.

 

Also, "Taken together, these caveats suggest that EWIs cannot be analysed in isolation. They are best seen as a useful starting point for a more granular assessment of vulnerabilities."

 

The conclusion is " ... in assessing these results it is also important to take into
account data limitations. Crises are rare events even in samples where data coverage is good...."

 

Basically, a lot more detailed data is needed to concluded a crisis is going to occur.

 

 

Edited March 15, 2018 by Banana7

[Banana7]

On 3/8/2018 at 11:43 AM, WinterGael said:

This seems to be an 'all over' complaint from Thais.  I see it all over our village.  I hear it from friends and family.  Strong GDP growth means improved incomes and more jobs.  Except in Thailand.  Despite what I read and hear, the strengthening Baht is having a negative effect on peoples' lives. 

 

Need to go back to home country for a few months.  While I'm there, I'll be stocking up on a few things because I can buy them cheaper in Canada: ie good shoes and eyeglasses. 

???

Lots of things are cheaper in Canada than Thailand. For example, all of the following are 50% less in Canada than the price in Thailand:

 

1. Sun tan lotion (Banana Boat brand),

2. Shaving gel/cream like Edge is about 40% of the cost in Thailand,

3. Leather goods like belts, shoes, coats,

4. Coffee (high quality 100% arabica beans),

5. Even rice crackers, 50b or more at Big C, 25b (CAD$0.99) at No Frills, (Canada doesn't grow rice, it's all imported, some from Thailand),

6. Everything that has a large % of wheat or grains, like pasta and bread

7. Beef, an example: 5% fat (extra lean) ground beef, 390b/kg. at Big C, (CAD=$15.60), in Canada CAD$6.50/kg. (reg. price , even cheaper if "on sale")

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 15, 2018 by Banana7

[ExpatOilWorker]

40 minutes ago, Banana7 said:

Be sure to read page 50 of the above PDF. Especially, "In fact, in our sample and as a rule of thumb, the likelihood of a crisis emerging once the threshold for an indicator is breached is around 50%." So there is also 50% chance nothing happens.

 

Also, "Taken together, these caveats suggest that EWIs cannot be analysed in isolation. They are best seen as a useful starting point for a more granular assessment of vulnerabilities."

 

The conclusion is " ... in assessing these results it is also important to take into
account data limitations. Crises are rare events even in samples where data coverage is good...."

 

Basically, a lot more detailed data is needed to concluded a crisis is going to occur.

 

 

Sure, BIS have to be careful with their wording, they can draw any conclusions. Alan Greenspan said something like: "If you understand what I am saying, then I haven't said it right"

 

They also have some kind words for the developers in Thailand on page 101:

First, property developers in all economies except Thailand have become less profitable in recent years.

[Banana7]

Two major factors for a strong Baht are:

 

1. Thailand taxes most imports, it is highly protectionist, and has not joined TPP,  because it would likely encounter some difficulties with respect to certain sectors;

2. It has a high balance of trade as stated in https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/balance-of-trade

Balance of Trade in Thailand averaged 19.34 USD Million from 1991 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 4974.14 USD Million in February of 2016 and a record low of -5916.16 USD Million in January of 2013.

The above numbers are per month.

 

 

[Banana7]

CAD is strongly tied to USD. So if USD goes down against THB then CAD goes down, if USD/CAD is consistent. CAD/USD relationship is highly influenced by raw material prices, especially oil and the interest rate differential between CAD/USD and the international balance of trade.

 

Canada has been running a trade deficit of about 1.9 billion CAD per month for about the last 5 years. That will probably continue until the Federal government becomes more business oriented, removing red tape, than trying to get re-elected, by appeasing every minority group and subordinate level of government in Canada. For example, they imposed over 200 conditions to build a new pipeline, in additions to the existing rules, regulations and laws - absolutely ridiculous!

 

The aboriginal people even went to the Supreme Court of Canada (SCC) to get legal authority over all oil and gas in Canada. Even though they lost, the case provided uncertainty and risk to private investment, for many years. Other groups won't stop opposition to business initiatives until they get a judgement from SCC.

 

Lots (10-20 millions of barrels per day) of Canadian oil and gas is land-locked and can't get to international markets. Canadian Government policies and laws (at federal, provincial and municipal levels) prevent enlarging or building new pipelines to deep sea ports. Lots of oil is sold to USA at up to 40% discount because of too much supply,  and a lack of pipes to deep sea ports.

 

In Canada, there are too many legal avenues to prevent commercial development. The current Federal government hasn't provided adequate timely action or support to private industry to build the pipelines.

 

 

 

[Berkshire]

Perhaps the Chinese dumping some of their US treasuries contributed to the weakening of the USD....

 

[China's holdings of US government debt fell to a six-month low of $1.17 trillion in January, according to Treasury Department data published Thursday.]

 

http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/16/news/economy/china-treasury-holdings-fall-january/index.html

[Sparkles]

Ozzie dollar is heading south 24.2 baht today.Pretty scary