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Posted
42 minutes ago, jesimps said:

What are you even doing on this forum? You say "Whata life" and yet here you are, not even a crypto trader spending your life arguing about cryptos. At least the traders are here to share their views, TA and maybe pick up a few trading tips.

Be truthful, you're one of these strange people, all forums have them, who become orgasmic over knocking whatever it is that the majority posters are interested in.

I regard you and one or two others on here as sickos.

 

Oh, look....a group of people behind this Ponzi decided to bid up bitcoin a bit, so we got a poster getting his confidence back and blasting posters who see through this scam.

 

Post a screenshot of this.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, jesimps said:

What are you even doing on this forum? You say "Whata life" and yet here you are, not even a crypto trader spending your life arguing about cryptos. At least the traders are here to share their views, TA and maybe pick up a few trading tips.

Be truthful, you're one of these strange people, all forums have them, who become orgasmic over knocking whatever it is that the majority posters are interested in.

I regard you and one or two others on here as sickos.

I think troll is the word, you even got a reply from one I see. by the way, for all the trolls out there, a record one trillion dollars worth was traded in just one hour yesterday, and the price went up so they were mostly buying in. seems the institutional investors and the experts they employ arent able to see through the scam as well as the trolls here. oh well

Edited by phycokiller
  • Like 1
Posted
1 hour ago, phycokiller said:

I think troll is the word, you even got a reply from one I see. by the way, for all the trolls out there, a record one trillion dollars worth was traded in just one hour yesterday, and the price went up so they were mostly buying in. seems the institutional investors and the experts they employ arent able to see through the scam as well as the trolls here. oh well

 

Dead cat bounce :)

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Posted
3 hours ago, jesimps said:

What are you even doing on this forum? You say "Whata life" and yet here you are, not even a crypto trader spending your life arguing about cryptos. At least the traders are here to share their views, TA and maybe pick up a few trading tips.

Be truthful, you're one of these strange people, all forums have them, who become orgasmic over knocking whatever it is that the majority posters are interested in.

I regard you and one or two others on here as sickos.

Open forum...not restricted or limited to any particular group or school of thought...HIGHLY moderated for trolling and flaming. Those with opposing opinions are also sharing their views. Not even sure the pro-cryptos are the majority here! :vampire:

 

As I've said before...IF cryptos are so.awesome and valuable and the ultimate future of everything, then should have no problem standing on their merits and performance despite what we skeptics think! ?

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, theguyfromanotherforum said:

 

Dead cat bounce :)

I dont know what it is but I think its about 2 weeks too late to be considered a dead cat bounce 

Edited by phycokiller
  • Like 1
Posted
7 hours ago, jesimps said:

What are you even doing on this forum? You say "Whata life" and yet here you are, not even a crypto trader spending your life arguing about cryptos. At least the traders are here to share their views, TA and maybe pick up a few trading tips.

Be truthful, you're one of these strange people, all forums have them, who become orgasmic over knocking whatever it is that the majority posters are interested in.

I regard you and one or two others on here as sickos.

 

i agree. its sad that there are people that dont like something and spend all their time on an old man forum arguing against it.

i dont like toyotas, but i dont spend my life collecting thousands of post on forums arguing with people that like that.

 

its pathetic it really is.

 

i have found that most the people so negative about it, are the people that are mad at themselves for not buying in early because they know they missed their chance at millions. and now they are so pissed about missing the chance all they can do is try to fight it and hope it never rises anymore just so they can feel better about themselves

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Posted
22 minutes ago, Jabers said:

 

i agree. its sad that there are people that dont like something and spend all their time on an old man forum arguing against it.

i dont like toyotas, but i dont spend my life collecting thousands of post on forums arguing with people that like that.

 

its pathetic it really is.

 

i have found that most the people so negative about it, are the people that are mad at themselves for not buying in early because they know they missed their chance at millions. and now they are so pissed about missing the chance all they can do is try to fight it and hope it never rises anymore just so they can feel better about themselves

 

Nope. I don't spend all my time on old man's forum (lolz) trying to justify the chance I missed on crapto. This is literally my fifth post on the subject. Anyhooz, even if I bought it at 2 bucks and held it all the way to 10k, I'd still think it's a scam. But I didn't and neither did you. Most of you guys are day trading satoshis at whatever price level and loving those fiat. Maybe you are making some money on spreads, but to me the risk is too big....and it's not even because I think bitcoin is garbage, it's because of vulnerable and unregulated exchanges that get hacked daily. Add to that the unlimited government and bank regulations, there's no chance in hell I'd touch this with a 10 foot  pole Nong Nat was rubbing herself with.

 

Anyhow.....why does my opinion bothers you so much? Is it because  betcoin crashed worse than US real estate back in 2008?

 

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Jabers said:

 

i agree. its sad that there are people that dont like something and spend all their time on an old man forum arguing against it.

i dont like toyotas, but i dont spend my life collecting thousands of post on forums arguing with people that like that.

 

its pathetic it really is.

 

i have found that most the people so negative about it, are the people that are mad at themselves for not buying in early because they know they missed their chance at millions. and now they are so pissed about missing the chance all they can do is try to fight it and hope it never rises anymore just so they can feel better about themselves

:crazy: :clap2::cheesy: 

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, theguyfromanotherforum said:

it's because of vulnerable and unregulated exchanges that get hacked daily. Add to that the unlimited government and bank regulations, there's no chance in hell I'd touch this with a 10 foot  pole Nong Nat was rubbing herself with.

using exchanges and banks is not necessary with btc, thats part of the reason its so popular

Edited by phycokiller
  • Like 1
Posted
6 hours ago, Jabers said:

 

i agree. its sad that there are people that dont like something and spend all their time on an old man forum arguing against it.

i dont like toyotas, but i dont spend my life collecting thousands of post on forums arguing with people that like that.

 

its pathetic it really is.

 

i have found that most the people so negative about it, are the people that are mad at themselves for not buying in early because they know they missed their chance at millions. and now they are so pissed about missing the chance all they can do is try to fight it and hope it never rises anymore just so they can feel better about themselves

on the way up its "dont buy its a bubble", on the way down its "dont buy its a burst bubble". reality is in the long term price has gone up 3x per year, quite a lot more the last year and shows no signs of slowing down. apart from the people that bought in the last 4 months every bitcoin holder has made a profit and short of nuclear war they will be in profit at some stage as well if they hold

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Posted
15 hours ago, Jabers said:

 

i agree. its sad that there are people that dont like something and spend all their time on an old man forum arguing against it

 

What's "like" got to do with this?

Do you "like" dollar or yen or yuan?

Bitcoin and other cryptos are supposed to be currencies, not instruments of pure and unbriddled speculation!

Supporters are only talking about the profits they made or will make trading cryptos, as others did in the past with other products, such as tulip bulbs or pet.com or mortgage backed securities, with the results we know.

As currencies, there is not a chance that 99% of the actual cryptos will succeed, for a simple matter of convenience...People do not like to deal with multiple currencies in their daily lives!

As a matter of fact, most people in the world are not even using cheques and credit cards, using only cash...One can't imagine them jumping from cash to cryptos...Unless they are forced to do it by their governments...But governments won't force people to use private cryptos...

So, as currencies, private cryptos have a very limited future...And as a mean of speculation one might wonder why the future should be brighter...

 

Posted
On 4/13/2018 at 1:35 AM, jesimps said:

I'd like to screenshot this and post it back to you at the end of the year but I can't be arsed. 

Many who missed out have posted similar nonsense in the past only to have their nose wiped in it. Jealousy makes people very bitter and twisted.

No jealousy, no bitterness, no twist. Simply my view on the matter, based on years of experience as a systems engineer, as well as building real-time trading systems for Wall Street. As such, I know a little bit about the technology involved, as well as various markets and trading instruments. Because of that experience, I would never talk in absolutes, nor think that I could predict the path of these markets. I simply provide my point of view for those who wish to look beyond the end of their nose.

  • Like 2
Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, Brunolem said:

What's "like" got to do with this?

Do you "like" dollar or yen or yuan?

Bitcoin and other cryptos are supposed to be currencies, not instruments of pure and unbriddled speculation!

Supporters are only talking about the profits they made or will make trading cryptos, as others did in the past with other products, such as tulip bulbs or pet.com or mortgage backed securities, with the results we know.

As currencies, there is not a chance that 99% of the actual cryptos will succeed, for a simple matter of convenience...People do not like to deal with multiple currencies in their daily lives!

As a matter of fact, most people in the world are not even using cheques and credit cards, using only cash...One can't imagine them jumping from cash to cryptos...Unless they are forced to do it by their governments...But governments won't force people to use private cryptos...

So, as currencies, private cryptos have a very limited future...And as a mean of speculation one might wonder why the future should be brighter...

 

yes, we can call it speculation, but what is speculation? its buying and selling stuff. and why is bitcoin so popular for speculating? because its the easiest and most efficient currency available to do that, and also its opened up speculating to millions of people that had no way to do it before bitcoin. in other words, bitcoin is popular for speculating because its a very good form of currency. 

 

also, speculation is the part of bitcoin that is easily tracked and publicized,  when people use bitcoin off the exchanges for buying and selling other things its not so easy to track,  just because speculation is big doesnt mean that its not also being used as a so called currency as well

 

but I agree that most of the other cryptos will vanish

Edited by phycokiller
Posted
20 hours ago, phycokiller said:

[…] its opened up speculating to millions of people that had no way to do it before bitcoin. in other words, bitcoin is popular for speculating because its a very good form of currency. 

Lotteries are also very popular for speculation, doesn’t necessarily make them good. Even ponzi schemes are surprisingly popular, especially in China, Russia, and India (where you have a lot of people tempted by the promise of going from rags to riches).

 

As for what bitcoin is: Buying and selling on exchanges is simply a zero-sum investment game. The money you can win by investing in bitcoin comes from other investors, as no value is being generated, only the new money coming into bitcoin, but most likely miners are regularly cashing out to cover their operational costs, so the pool of money is (highly likely) less than what have collectively been put into it, and thus on average, investors will take a loss. The winning strategy would be to cash out before everyone else starts to…

 

As for the technology: It has some problems preventing it from actually being used as a currency:

  1. The energy required for proof-of-work must be higher than the value being protected. This works now because the miner get a block reward, but that basically means that all holders of bitcoin collectively pay for the mining via inflation. The unsustainability of proof-of-work will be clearer when the mining reward decrease (as that should cause the transaction fee to increase proportionally, and eventually the transaction fee will match the value being transferred, as if it is less, the network is not secure).
  2. Transaction fees go up with popularity.
  3. It does not scale to anywhere near world wide adoption (because everyone needs a full copy of the entire ledger which must contain all transactions in the world).
  4. There is no way to do chargebacks or reverse a transaction in case of fraud or mistakes.
  5. Not suitable for real-time transactions as reasonable confidence in a transaction being confirmed requires at least 4 blocks.
  6. Subject to denial-of-service attacks (you can either spam the bitcoin network itself, as some claim Coinbase did in December/January, causing major delays and transaction fees to go up, or you can attack the internet connection of the nodes).
  7. No way to work in offline mode; this may seem minor, as I don’t think they do imprint of payment cards anymore, i.e. payment cards also need an online terminal, but payment cards use the same currency as your cash! There is no physical cash with bitcoin, and there is no way to have physical cash without a trusted authority, which is what bitcoin wants to avoid. Presumably the bitcoin proponents are thinking that gold will be the currency to use for offline payments?

Lastly you have bitcoin (or altcoins) as a real currency. The million dollar question is why would we actually want this? The answer seems to come down to ideology, i.e. some do not want the government to control our money supply.

 

Personally I do trust my government, and I do believe that a central bank is doing more good than harm in controlling our currency, e.g. increasing the money supply during a crisis etc.

 

But even if I was to think that governments were not suitable to control our currency and that something closer to the gold standard would be good for our economy, then I would still argue that bitcoin / blockchain is *not* the proper way to implement a currency free from government control, as it just has too many problems and the usability of it is terrible.

 

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Posted

Blockchain is not only crappy technology but a bad vision for the future

This recent article by Kai Stinchcombe with its provocative title is actually a well-researched and very interesting read

https://medium.com/@kaistinchcombe/decentralized-and-trustless-crypto-paradise-is-actually-a-medieval-hellhole-c1ca122efdec

Also the responses - pro and con - the article generated are very worthwhile.

Posted
3 hours ago, lkn said:

Lotteries are also very popular for speculation, doesn’t necessarily make them good. Even ponzi schemes are surprisingly popular, especially in China, Russia, and India (where you have a lot of people tempted by the promise of going from rags to riches).

 

As for what bitcoin is: Buying and selling on exchanges is simply a zero-sum investment game. The money you can win by investing in bitcoin comes from other investors, as no value is being generated, only the new money coming into bitcoin, but most likely miners are regularly cashing out to cover their operational costs, so the pool of money is (highly likely) less than what have collectively been put into it, and thus on average, investors will take a loss. The winning strategy would be to cash out before everyone else starts to…

 

As for the technology: It has some problems preventing it from actually being used as a currency:

  1. The energy required for proof-of-work must be higher than the value being protected. This works now because the miner get a block reward, but that basically means that all holders of bitcoin collectively pay for the mining via inflation. The unsustainability of proof-of-work will be clearer when the mining reward decrease (as that should cause the transaction fee to increase proportionally, and eventually the transaction fee will match the value being transferred, as if it is less, the network is not secure).
  2. Transaction fees go up with popularity.
  3. It does not scale to anywhere near world wide adoption (because everyone needs a full copy of the entire ledger which must contain all transactions in the world).
  4. There is no way to do chargebacks or reverse a transaction in case of fraud or mistakes.
  5. Not suitable for real-time transactions as reasonable confidence in a transaction being confirmed requires at least 4 blocks.
  6. Subject to denial-of-service attacks (you can either spam the bitcoin network itself, as some claim Coinbase did in December/January, causing major delays and transaction fees to go up, or you can attack the internet connection of the nodes).
  7. No way to work in offline mode; this may seem minor, as I don’t think they do imprint of payment cards anymore, i.e. payment cards also need an online terminal, but payment cards use the same currency as your cash! There is no physical cash with bitcoin, and there is no way to have physical cash without a trusted authority, which is what bitcoin wants to avoid. Presumably the bitcoin proponents are thinking that gold will be the currency to use for offline payments?

Lastly you have bitcoin (or altcoins) as a real currency. The million dollar question is why would we actually want this? The answer seems to come down to ideology, i.e. some do not want the government to control our money supply.

 

Personally I do trust my government, and I do believe that a central bank is doing more good than harm in controlling our currency, e.g. increasing the money supply during a crisis etc.

 

But even if I was to think that governments were not suitable to control our currency and that something closer to the gold standard would be good for our economy, then I would still argue that bitcoin / blockchain is *not* the proper way to implement a currency free from government control, as it just has too many problems and the usability of it is terrible.

 

I wont answer all your questions but a few points

 

2. they also go down with efficiency and competition

3. you dont need the full ledger

4. its digital cash, like cash theres no chargeback, but like cash you can use an escrow service if you want that, it will cost of course

7. its like email, if you are out in the boondocks you might have to use paper money, but satellite connections are coming and its not likely to be an issue in future

 

of course there will be scaling issues, thats a natural result of growth

Posted
25 minutes ago, phycokiller said:

I wont answer all your questions but a few points

 

2. they also go down with efficiency and competition

3. you dont need the full ledger

4. its digital cash, like cash theres no chargeback, but like cash you can use an escrow service if you want that, it will cost of course

7. its like email, if you are out in the boondocks you might have to use paper money, but satellite connections are coming and its not likely to be an issue in future

 

of course there will be scaling issues, thats a natural result of growth

 

2. The network has a fixed limit (of transactions it can process), if you add more nodes to the network, it decreases the odds of a single node getting a block reward, therefore the (true) cost of a transaction actually goes *up* with number of nodes. I therefor fail to see how competition will result in lower transaction fees. Only if nodes operate at a loss, will you see transaction fees go down. But if transaction fees are to reflect the true cost of a transaction then fees will go up with the number of nodes in the network.

 

3. If you do not have the full ledger, how do you verify money has been sent to you (and not double spent etc.)? Do you trust someone else to verify it on your behalf? Because then it is no longer trustless, which is the entire point.

 

4. You do not need chargebacks when paying with physical cash, but you need it when going digital, because that opens up a whole new world of potential fraud. Having everybody let transactions go through escrow is once again adding a trusted authority.

 

7. If you have to use paper money, who backs these paper money? If we still have to trust paper money, why are we moving to bitcoin? We already have digital money denominated in the same currency as our paper money and they are much more convenient than bitcoins.

 

So for #2 I think you have not thought through how the network actually works and the incentives at play. For #3, #4, and #7 you are basically saying we can solve that with a trusted third party, but the entire point of bitcoin is to not have to rely on trusted third parties, as if we need trust, we already have far superior payment options.

 

 

As for your comment that scaling issues is a result of growth: They’ve had 9 years to fix it, but it’s a theoretical problem that isn’t really solvable. Again, I don’t think you have fully thought about how it would work if the entire world had to use just one (distributed) ledger for all transactions.

 

Posted
1 hour ago, phycokiller said:

great minds want to know, when does a dead cat bounce become a bubble?

Never!

The dead cat bounce comes after the bubble, once the latter has popped.

Posted
2 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

Bitcoin is the greatest scam in history

Article written by Bill Harris, former CEO of PayPal.  Good (short) read and makes some very valid points.

https://www.recode.net/2018/4/24/17275202/bitcoin-scam-cryptocurrency-mining-pump-dump-fraud-ico-value?platform=hootsuite

all those old theories, greater fools and lack of backing etc, in fact pretty much that whole article has been disproved by the mere existence and growth of bitcoin

Posted

The fact that Bitcoin is very much alive and will almost certainly grow to new heights, does not mean that it's not a scam.  It only demonstrates that the combination of hype and greed is a more powerful driver than common sense. 

Posted
On 4/25/2018 at 5:06 AM, Peter Denis said:

Bitcoin is the greatest scam in history

Article written by Bill Harris, former CEO of PayPal.  Good (short) read and makes some very valid points.

https://www.recode.net/2018/4/24/17275202/bitcoin-scam-cryptocurrency-mining-pump-dump-fraud-ico-value?platform=hootsuite

This is a great read and I actually wrote the very same on another thread here on 26...4 months ago! Someone asked for an explanation of Bitcoin. Below is what I wrote. Can click the link below to see the actual original post...

 

A digital, shit-filled bubble mania currency/commodity which...

 

1. has NO intrinsic value

2. has HIGH volatility

3. Is highly unstable

3. IS gambling, not an investment

4. Is purely SPECULATIVE

 

Bitcoin...

 

Understood...NOT

Private...not

Free transactions...not

Tax free...not

EZ to use...not

Widely accepted...not

Even Minimally accepted...not

Safe...not

Secure...not

Intrinsic value...NONE (this bears repeating)

 

To sum it up...an overblown, over-inflated, over-ripe shit filled balloon that is going to explode. Sure...a lucky minority will make or have made BANK...while the vast majority are about to get hosed. Much better name would be...Bitcon.

 

 

Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Skeptic7 said:

This is a great read and I actually wrote the very same on another thread here on 26...4 months ago! Someone asked for an explanation of Bitcoin. Below is what I wrote. Can click the link below to see the actual original post...

 

A digital, shit-filled bubble mania currency/commodity which...

 

1. has NO intrinsic value

2. has HIGH volatility

3. Is highly unstable

3. IS gambling, not an investment

4. Is purely SPECULATIVE

 

Bitcoin...

 

Understood...NOT

Private...not

Free transactions...not

Tax free...not

EZ to use...not

Widely accepted...not

Even Minimally accepted...not

Safe...not

Secure...not

Intrinsic value...NONE (this bears repeating)

 

To sum it up...an overblown, over-inflated, over-ripe shit filled balloon that is going to explode. Sure...a lucky minority will make or have made BANK...while the vast majority are about to get hosed. Much better name would be...Bitcon.

 

 

1. has NO intrinsic value

--its value is as a medium of exchange, its worth what the market says its worth

 

2. has HIGH volatility also 3,3 and 4

--yes, its still very small compared to say US$, but its volitity is decreasing as it grows, as you would expect

 

Understood...NOT

---obviously

 

Private...not 

----can be if you are careful

 

Free transactions...not 

--- of course not, somebody has to pay for the data storage etc

 

Tax free...not 

-- unpolicable

 

EZ to use...not 

--- same as any money app, put in the address and amount and click send, difficult to see how to make it simpler

 

Widely accepted...not

--- cant expect it to happen overnight, which is another good reason to invest now

 

Even Minimally accepted...not

----theres quite a lot you can buy on the internet with it, I accept them anyway, and consider that the last bubble becan at around 1000$ the day that japan legalized it and it is apparently quite largely accepted there.

 

Safe...not

---bitcoin itself is very safe, but like any thing of value you shouldnt leave it with people that can just run with it, but you dont have to leave it with anybody, you can be your own bank

 

Secure...not

--- just a repeat of your previous example with no added detail

 

Intrinsic value...NONE (this bears repeating)

---its a pure medium of exchange, the only cost is the data, its not supposed to have an intrinsic value, but all the same, as an owner, I think 8800 times that of a dollar is pretty cool

Edited by phycokiller
  • Like 1
Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, phycokiller said:

EZ to use...not 

--- same as any money app, put in the address and amount and click send, difficult to see how to make it simpler

First, payments can be easier than entering in the address and amount, e.g. contactless payments where you just hold your NFC enabled device up to the payment terminal.

 

Second, what app do you enter this in for bitcoin? If I want to send my friend money via iMessages, I simply tap the ApplePay icon and enter the amount, I assume similar for LINE Pay, WeChat Pay, etc. Is there some chat app that makes it similarly easy to send bitcoins?

 

Third, as there is probably no chat app like above, what address do you enter? Can people have an easy to remember address like their email address or phone number? Or are we actually talking about long alphanumeric strings where it matters whether the letters are capitalized or not? Fact: Many people do not know about copy/paste and will manually enter the address rather than copy it from an email/website, so bitcoin addresses are *not* easy to deal with for regular people.

 

Fourth, once you hit send, are the money there? How long does it take? Similarly for receiving money, when someone claims to have sent you money, why are they not showing up instantly? When they show up, how confident can you be that they’ll remain yours? You really think regular people understand the underlying issues surrounding this? For them, the process will seem arcane, even many bitcoin proponents seems to be unaware about the process as they claim transfer speeds faster than what is theoretically possible and never consider the uncertainty of whether the block with the transaction remains on the longest blockchain, which one shouldn’t before at least 3-4 more blocks have been mined.

 

Lastly, what is the transaction fee? Money sending services have clear policies about fees, and there are many ways to send money for free. Yet with bitcoin, there is no way for a user to know what it’ll end up costing, as we saw some months ago, fees can easily spike to absurd levels regardless of the actual money being transferred.

 

 

Edited by lkn
  • Like 1
Posted
7 hours ago, lkn said:

First, payments can be easier than entering in the address and amount, e.g. contactless payments where you just hold your NFC enabled device up to the payment terminal.

 

Second, what app do you enter this in for bitcoin? If I want to send my friend money via iMessages, I simply tap the ApplePay icon and enter the amount, I assume similar for LINE Pay, WeChat Pay, etc. Is there some chat app that makes it similarly easy to send bitcoins?

 

Third, as there is probably no chat app like above, what address do you enter? Can people have an easy to remember address like their email address or phone number? Or are we actually talking about long alphanumeric strings where it matters whether the letters are capitalized or not? Fact: Many people do not know about copy/paste and will manually enter the address rather than copy it from an email/website, so bitcoin addresses are *not* easy to deal with for regular people.

 

Fourth, once you hit send, are the money there? How long does it take? Similarly for receiving money, when someone claims to have sent you money, why are they not showing up instantly? When they show up, how confident can you be that they’ll remain yours? You really think regular people understand the underlying issues surrounding this? For them, the process will seem arcane, even many bitcoin proponents seems to be unaware about the process as they claim transfer speeds faster than what is theoretically possible and never consider the uncertainty of whether the block with the transaction remains on the longest blockchain, which one shouldn’t before at least 3-4 more blocks have been mined.

 

Lastly, what is the transaction fee? Money sending services have clear policies about fees, and there are many ways to send money for free. Yet with bitcoin, there is no way for a user to know what it’ll end up costing, as we saw some months ago, fees can easily spike to absurd levels regardless of the actual money being transferred.

 

 

breifly

1, yes you can use QR codes and since phones can read them its the obvious way

2, the apps are called bitcoin wallets

3, you can save addresses, altho if you are wanting to remain anonymous best to use a new one

4 and 5. are connected because the speed of the transaction depends on the fee, I dont think any wallets feature it yet but you can calculate how much you need to pay for how long the transaction will take at that particular time. the transaction shows up, as far as I know,  in the blockchain as soon as its sent and its pretty much irreversible at that stage but many businesses wait for 3 confirmations which takes about 30 mins. if its personal and you know the person you are dealing with isnt a scammer I think you could consider the transaction instant.  

 

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