Consensus builds on growth path

[webfact]

Consensus builds on growth path

By The Nation

 

 

 A PEAK private-sector grouping has raised its forecast for economic expansion to 4-4.5 per cent, backed by an upward revision for growth in the country’s exports to 5-8 per cent.

 

 The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) also cites the sustained recovery of the global economy and the steady gains in Thailand’s export and tourism receipts.

 

JSCCIB chairman Chen Namchaisiri said Thailand’s economic indicators for the first two months of 2018 show consistent expansion in overseas shipments on the back of the positive global economic conditions, as well as the tourism boom.

 

Also rising were imports in categories including capital goods, raw materials, intermediate goods and goods for consumption. This reflects an improved outlook for manufacturing activities and domestic spending, said Chen, who is also chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries.

 

However, there remain challenges for Thai growth, ranging from trade conflicts between the United States and other countries to the rate of progress in Thailand’s state investment, he said.

 

He said that Thailand may face a limited impact on exports from the US decision to impose higher tariffs on products imported from China, and may be placed on a US watch list depending on the findings of an exchange rate policy report that will be announced this month.

 

The committee proposed the postponement of the scheduled enforcement of the International Financial Reporting Standard IFRS 9 from next year to 2022, as it could broadly affect the business sector, Chen said.

 

Ghanyapad Tantipipatpong, chairman of the Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC), said the council maintains its 2018 target for export growth at no less than 6 per cent.

 

In the first two months of this year, exports increased 10.3 per cent year on year to US$20.365 billion.

 

However, for the first quarter of this year foreign exchange risks remain in the form of baht appreciation, stock market fluctuations, supply shortages in some agricultural products and an increase in international trade barriers, she said.

 

The TNSC estimates that the baht will trade at an average of 31.5 per US dollar this year. On April 2, the currency appreciated by 3.4 per cent from February and more than 12 per cent from the same period of last year to 31.17 per. Most Asian currencies have also appreciated against the greenback.

 

 Reflecting the growing optimism over the economy, the Monetary Policy Committee last week revised up its estimate of 2018 economic growth to 4.1 per cent, from the 3.9 per cent projected earlier.

 

Others economic forecasters have also revise up the country’s economy growth projections thanks to public investment along with the robust export and tourism sectors.

 

The SCB Economic Intelligence Centre (EIC) has pencilled in economic growth of 4 per cent for this year, up from an earlier estimate.

 

The centre, a unit of Siam Commercial Bank, said exports and the number of tourist arrivals are projected to see year-on-year expansion of 5 per cent and 80 per cent, respectively.

 

Kasikorn Research Centre (Kresearch) is sticking with a forecast of 4.5 per cent export growth, amid concerns over a trade war. It estimates economic growth of 4 per cent for this year, shading earlier estimates.

 

Kresearch said that although the United States has implemented protectionist measures that will have varying impacts on trade partners and product types, certain flexibilities in enforcement may limit the overall impact and lead to negotiations with each of the country’s trade partners.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30342386

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2018-04-04

[Samui Bodoh]

Economic projections require one to make certain assumptions, and if the assumptions are not correct then the projections will not be correct. This is also known as the GIGO principle; Garbage in, Garbage out.

 

I assume that one of the underlying assumptions is that Thailand has political stability. If the Junta does not keep its promise and allow fair elections in a timely manner, all of these projections are worth nothing.

 

A large element of economics is confidence. If there is no political stability and democratic progress, then confidence will do a swan dive out the window.

 

Hey Junta! Something to think about...

 

[Cadbury]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

Kasikorn Research Centre (Kresearch) is sticking with a forecast of 4.5 per cent export growth, amid concerns over a trade war. It estimates economic growth of 4 per cent for this year, shading earlier estimates.

Export growth rate predictions seem to be below that of last year. But it is reassuring to note that the Bank of Thailand Governor has said "that while exports have not been harmed, yet, the Bank would ensure that exporters and certain businesses would not be affected negatively".

Could that be interpreted as meaning the value of the baht could be in for a bit of "twiddling"?  POTUS won't be happy about that.

[Anak Nakal]

Ha!

They want government money so they say good thing.

Same same every country.