Stage being set for ‘neutral’ Prayut to return as the PM

[candide]

Actually it will not be as easy as the article states. The election of an outsider PM requires a majority of two thirds of votes. It means he will need the vote of 50% of MPs, so a coalition of small parties will be far from enough. He can only succeed if the Dems vote for him.

But even if he does not get a majority, he will be able to prevent anyone else to be elected. And remain in power.

[Samui Bodoh]

21 minutes ago, JAG said:

I'm sorry but I must disagree with you Eligius, as I do with Baboon and Samui Bodoh. You have in my opinion made a fundamental misjudgement by mistaking acquiescence for acceptance,

 

This society is being run by the men with the guns. The guns may be for the most part holstered, but they are still strapped to the people wielding power. The thing about a holstered gun is that you can still see it, and you know that it can be quickly drawn and used. There have been several occasions in the last few decades when the people running the country have not hesitated to use those guns to protect their hegemony. 2010 was the last of several occasions, and there is a very direct connection between that occasion, and the people issuing the orders then and the current regime. The Thai people are entirely aware of that, that is why they acquiesce. 

 

I remember my very basic science (chemistry) education. Two incompatible substances may require the presence of a third substance or event (a catalyst) to initiate an often powerful reaction. (My most powerful memory is of my chemistry teacher setting fire to his trousers by dropping phosphorous onto them from a dish of water!) That reaction can often be sudden and unpredictable. Whilst it is often difficult, and an imprecise business to attempt to judge the mood of a society,  I think that analogy applies to the current situation in this society. What the catalyst will be I don't know. I rather thought that the jailing of Yingluck might have been it - that was forestalled by " allowing " her to leave. An election which results in an overwhelming mandate for one party, only to see an engineered "logjam" result in the imposition of an appointed Prime Minister, as now seems likely, may prove to be a catalyst. Or it may be a succession of much more minor things. I don't know, none of us does, but it is not I am sure true, or fair, to say that the Thai people accept what is being done to their country. They continue to try and enjoy themselves, that is in their nature, they are not a particularly sullen people - one of the reasons why I rather like living amongst them.  Again that does not indicate acceptance, but acquiescence. The two are very different states of mind.

 

One other point to bear in mind - the single most stabilising factor in this society has gone. Uncharted waters.

Interesting post (as always!)

 

However, I don't think you have quite cottoned on to the nuance(s) of my posts. Yes, the phrase "acquiescence is acceptance" is mine (er... and others), but I use it as a call to action in the hope that matters in Thailand can be settled by non-violent/political means. 

 

I quite agree that a spark can set off a chain-reaction, but I very much don't want to see that occur. And the method of creating conditions whereby that does not occur is to create a political narrative where the only outcome is based on free and fair elections (or as free and fair as possible). Simply put, if the parties set a political marker that their acceptance of the results of an election is the only way that true legitimacy can be granted, then it makes it in the interest of the military/Junta/Prayut to meet those criteria and hold free and fair (-ish) elections.

 

I see the current state of affairs as the 'pre-game show', something akin to boxers facing off at the weigh-in. The Junta/Military/Prayut are trying to intimidate their opponents and set as many of the ground rules as they can in order to enter the ring with all the advantages. I (perhaps pointlessly?!) advocate that the parties and/or other political actors need to start speaking up now to counter the narrative and make clear that any future acceptance of a result requires fairness. If they don't, then essentially they are acquiescing to a set of unfair rules and therefore they will lose. They don't need to be marching in the streets attracting millions of supporters (at this stage), but they DO need to be putting that marker down, slowly but clearly.

 

Perhaps a better metaphor is that the sides are playing a game of "Chicken". The military needs an (accepted) election result to gain legitimacy. The parties need an election because they don't have the means of dislodging the military. Each side circles the other to try to gain advantage for the time when the clash begins. At the moment, the military is playing the game better (in my view) and I want to see the parties step up and fight better. No direct action is needed yet, but as above, the marker of what will be accepted needs to be put on the board, and sooner rather than later.

 

I can understand the reticence of the Thai people to become too outspoken at the moment; there are some particularly bloody events in recent Thai history. I am happy to leave the details and the tactics used to them; they have a better understanding of the dynamics than I do. However, if a juggernaut is allowed to be created unchallenged, then all is moot. My point(s) are to not let that occur.

 

Finally, I think the final comment in your post is the most telling... and I'll leave it at that.

 

 

 

 

[yellowboat]

Ah yes, savoring the sweet taste of exploitation, and dooming a citizenry of a lack luster future.   Modern Thailand

 

The country will have to reconcile now to stop the country's current foppish ways. 

Edited April 14, 2018 by yellowboat

[sandrew33]

6 hours ago, saakura said:

It seems to me that it is only the foreigners in Thailand who are angry and frustrated over Mr.P's power grab and all that he has done over the last few years to extend it. A huge, almost 99% Thais just dont seem to be bothered much, except a handful of students and activists. The only thing which can scare off these bullies is a mass uprising, which is not going to happen, as most seem to either accept or are resigned to it. Yesterday out in the streets, everyone was very happy enjoying throwing water and having a lot of fun, as always.

This is simply bullshit. 

 

It is true that a large slab of the Thai populace ignores politics and don't really engage at all with the process but anyone who has involved themselves with a broad cross section of Thais would have noticed the strong change in sentiment towards Prayuth and the Junta over the last 12 or so months. 

 

And it's at all levels of society. Many prominent and influential Thais have been increasingly openly contemptuous of Prayuth and his mob in all forms of media but particularly their social media. 

 

He is currently on the nose and, frankly, if you are living in Thailand and haven't noticed you must be in a bubble. 

 

Read Thai social media and even other general Thai media and converse with Thais across the spectrum. It's pretty obvious. Obviously it's easier if you can do that in Thai but even without that it's been evident. 

Edited April 14, 2018 by sandrew33

[Toscano]

In the light of the present world political crisis , with the US seeking to dominate the world , even at a risk of WWIII ; I believe it would be better for Thailand not to have an election or pretend to have democratic government .

At present the US does not approve of the Thai military junta and therefore doesn't want to be close to Thailand .

I believe it would be better for Thailand to keep it that way , better to ally with China your big near neighbour .

[rudi49jr]

7 hours ago, rooster59 said:

‘neutral’ Prayut

[biggles45]

The people get the government they deserve, but surely no-one deserves this! 

[Dukeleto]

6 hours ago, bannork said:

Posters, remember the new owners of The Nation have strong right wing leanings. This is one such article expressing unbridled optimism in its predictions of public support fot the parties supporting the return of Prayuth as PM. Election day, a long long way off, will be the litmus test. I suggest the result will be as in the past three elections.

One can only hope, however I fear if that does occur the military will simply step straight back in until they get the result they want. Honestly, it’s going to take a war between Thai people and the military to ever get democracy back. The previous governments really should have seen this coming and could have crippled them (military) with budget cuts and more importantly by ending compulsory conscription 10 years ago. But as we all know, thinking ahead is really not Thailand’s strong suit. The longer the military remains in control it has the power to change the voting system and constitution to keep them in power indefinitely.

[newatthis]

37 minutes ago, sandrew33 said:

This is simply bullshit. 

 

It is true that a large slab of the Thai populace ignores politics and don't really engage at all with the process but anyone who has involved themselves with a broad cross section of Thais would have noticed the strong change in sentiment towards Prayuth and the Junta over the last 12 or so months. 

 

And it's at all levels of society. Many prominent and influential Thais have been increasingly openly contemptuous of Prayuth and his mob in all forms of media but particularly their social media. 

 

He is currently on the nose and, frankly, if you are living in Thailand and haven't noticed you must be in a bubble. 

 

Read Thai social media and even other general Thai media and converse with Thais across the spectrum. It's pretty obvious. Obviously it's easier if you can do that in Thai but even without that it's been evident. 

You may be right, but I'll bet London to a brick that  they will still acquiesce if he continues as PM.

[Acemaker]

3 hours ago, JAG said:

I'm sorry but I must disagree with you Eligius, as I do with Baboon and Samui Bodoh. You have in my opinion made a fundamental misjudgement by mistaking acquiescence for acceptance,

 

This society is being run by the men with the guns. The guns may be for the most part holstered, but they are still strapped to the people wielding power. The thing about a holstered gun is that you can still see it, and you know that it can be quickly drawn and used. There have been several occasions in the last few decades when the people running the country have not hesitated to use those guns to protect their hegemony. 2010 was the last of several occasions, and there is a very direct connection between that occasion, and the people issuing the orders then and the current regime. The Thai people are entirely aware of that, that is why they acquiesce. 

 

I remember my very basic science (chemistry) education. Two incompatible substances may require the presence of a third substance or event (a catalyst) to initiate an often powerful reaction. (My most powerful memory is of my chemistry teacher setting fire to his trousers by dropping phosphorous onto them from a dish of water!) That reaction can often be sudden and unpredictable. Whilst it is often difficult, and an imprecise business to attempt to judge the mood of a society,  I think that analogy applies to the current situation in this society. What the catalyst will be I don't know. I rather thought that the jailing of Yingluck might have been it - that was forestalled by " allowing " her to leave. An election which results in an overwhelming mandate for one party, only to see an engineered "logjam" result in the imposition of an appointed Prime Minister, as now seems likely, may prove to be a catalyst. Or it may be a succession of much more minor things. I don't know, none of us does, but it is not I am sure true, or fair, to say that the Thai people accept what is being done to their country. They continue to try and enjoy themselves, that is in their nature, they are not a particularly sullen people - one of the reasons why I rather like living amongst them.  Again that does not indicate acceptance, but acquiescence. The two are very different states of mind.

 

One other point to bear in mind - the single most stabilising factor in this society has gone. Uncharted waters.

Thank you, Bamber Gascoigne.   

[anon4637435435]

Looks like an asian elton john!

[nightbirdbs]

mai mai mai krub no one wanna have you krub may your blindet coz the last 4 years you make too much Commision money krub.

But you cant handle Thailand only with article 44 this is a loosing of face point and i guess only they people vote for you are scare from you power.

Let it go Prayuth enjoy your life with the cash you make the last 4 years and let people vote for a Political who know what is Politic na krub

Kob khun PM krub. 

[Megasin1]

All these predictions are just to soften everyone up so that it doesn't come as a sudden unexpected surprise that there was ever only going to be one result, its not so much an election, more of a constitutional endorsement of the current junta.

What will follow this inevitable result, very rapidly will be major constitution changes (by an elected Government) that will inevitably lead to a Dictatorship.

Power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely.

As he ages and his already diminished brain cells reduce, we will be able to sit back and enjoy more hair-brained schemes, ideas and stupidity, so get yourselves a comfy lounger and some cold beers on tap.

[dukebowling]

8 hours ago, saakura said:

It seems to me that it is only the foreigners in Thailand who are angry and frustrated over Mr.P's power grab and all that he has done over the last few years to extend it. A huge, almost 99% Thais just dont seem to be bothered much, except a handful of students and activists. The only thing which can scare off these bullies is a mass uprising, which is not going to happen, as most seem to either accept or are resigned to it. Yesterday out in the streets, everyone was very happy enjoying throwing water and having a lot of fun, as always.

Or else...

[yellowboat]

58 minutes ago, Toscano said:

In the light of the present world political crisis , with the US seeking to dominate the world , even at a risk of WWIII ; I believe it would be better for Thailand not to have an election or pretend to have democratic government .

At present the US does not approve of the Thai military junta and therefore doesn't want to be close to Thailand .

I believe it would be better for Thailand to keep it that way , better to ally with China your big near neighbour .

Your entitled to your opinion, but the US's problems have occurred due to its straying from its basic all of the land, not because of adhering to it.   Thais want a voice in their own government and should not care what other countries are doing.  The junta has bought a large number of votes by way of a large number of unelected law makers.  They have an unearned advantage, but people still want their say. 

 

Do you adhere to any wisdom or philosophy ?   Chinese ?  "Governing a great nation is like cooking a small fish - too much handling will spoil it".  Lao Tzu.  “Timid men prefer the calm of despotism to the boisterous sea of liberty.” Jefferson.  "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." Franklin.  I am always curious how history goes unreferenced and how Liberty has somehow become so passé, especially amongst westerners living in Thailand. 

 

[saminoz]

8 hours ago, HiSoLowSoNoSo said:

Can't find anything neutral in this man.

His brain's in neutral most of the time.  Does that count?

[RichardColeman]

Neutral PM for a neutered parliament !

[mark01]

Did anyone expect any other outcome?

[Thechook]

9 hours ago, PatOngo said:

That smug look on his face sums him up perfectly.

 

Yep I just won the next democratic election in a landslide.

[Eligius]

5 hours ago, JAG said:

I'm sorry but I must disagree with you Eligius, as I do with Baboon and Samui Bodoh. You have in my opinion made a fundamental misjudgement by mistaking acquiescence for acceptance,

 

This society is being run by the men with the guns. The guns may be for the most part holstered, but they are still strapped to the people wielding power. The thing about a holstered gun is that you can still see it, and you know that it can be quickly drawn and used. There have been several occasions in the last few decades when the people running the country have not hesitated to use those guns to protect their hegemony. 2010 was the last of several occasions, and there is a very direct connection between that occasion, and the people issuing the orders then and the current regime. The Thai people are entirely aware of that, that is why they acquiesce. 

 

I remember my very basic science (chemistry) education. Two incompatible substances may require the presence of a third substance or event (a catalyst) to initiate an often powerful reaction. (My most powerful memory is of my chemistry teacher setting fire to his trousers by dropping phosphorous onto them from a dish of water!) That reaction can often be sudden and unpredictable. Whilst it is often difficult, and an imprecise business to attempt to judge the mood of a society,  I think that analogy applies to the current situation in this society. What the catalyst will be I don't know. I rather thought that the jailing of Yingluck might have been it - that was forestalled by " allowing " her to leave. An election which results in an overwhelming mandate for one party, only to see an engineered "logjam" result in the imposition of an appointed Prime Minister, as now seems likely, may prove to be a catalyst. Or it may be a succession of much more minor things. I don't know, none of us does, but it is not I am sure true, or fair, to say that the Thai people accept what is being done to their country. They continue to try and enjoy themselves, that is in their nature, they are not a particularly sullen people - one of the reasons why I rather like living amongst them.  Again that does not indicate acceptance, but acquiescence. The two are very different states of mind.

 

One other point to bear in mind - the single most stabilising factor in this society has gone. Uncharted waters.

I understand your points, my friend, and I respect them. Your position is certainly valid from one angle of viewing things. It takes great guts to stand up to an armed junta.

 

What I find, though, is that more often than not it is the Westerners who are really, really furious about what is happening to rights and liberties in Thailand. The Thais (and I talk to Red Shirts, farmers, taxi drivers, university lecturers, businesspeople - a wide spectrum of Thais) is that I almost never detect that incandescent rage (which I personally have often felt inside myself at what is happening here) which will be the only catalyst for change. There is a grumble about 'ratabaan tahaan mai dee' ('soldier government not good') - and that is about it. No fury. No outrage. No sense of being kicked in the face and insulted day after day by the powers that be. The Thais AT PRESENT basically go along with their own enslavement.

 

Yes, of course there are the men with guns. We all know that. But some of us (and some Thais) have taken real risks to manifest opposition to the junta (I won't and cannot be more specific). Yet I have seen Red Shirts, who claim to be very much opposed to the junta, fawn and bow and scrape in a most disgraceful manner when any representative from the junta (WITHOUT A GUN IN SIGHT) appears in their village or at their workplace. THAT is what is so wrong: this worming and squirming and genuflecting and wai-ing before illegitimate Authority figures. To me, that is unforgivable.

 

So yes, you are right: the Thais, generally, don't like this junta and MIGHT later erupt against it (that is speculation, of course: we simply do not know what the future may hold). What we DO know is that for four years the Thais en masse HAVE TAKEN all the detritus thrown at them on a daily basis - with scarcely a whimper, still less huge outrage (grumbling about a man with a few expensive watches does not cut it). That outrage and livid fury is simply not discernible. Yet I have seen it in many Westerners here. From the Thais (by and large) - no, nothing.

 

So I am afraid they are getting what they deserve (much as it pains me to say it). It is obvious that there is not going to be an election in February, and that in any case the whole thing (whenever - if ever  - it comes) will be rigged, stacked in favour of the military and their elite controllers. So now is the time to act - not wait for some bogus never-to-come 'election' that will be totally useless, anyway.

 

 There comes a point in every nation's history where it must 'grow a pair' and stand up to tyranny. Of course it is dangerous. Of course it could mean loss of life. But some of our fathers and grandfathers fought against tyranny at just such a cost.

 

The Thais have made their decision through their words and actions  (over the past four years). That is for them. It does not mean that I have to respect that decision or agree with it.

 

 

Edited April 14, 2018 by Eligius

[cookieqw]

one person needs to be kept away from another person

[chainarong]

Dark days ahead for Thailand............................

[Baerboxer]

10 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Yes.

 

He cheats.

 

 

They all do. But he writes the rules, and can change them whenever he fancies!

[Tilacme]

7 hours ago, JOC said:

Sadly we have to admit "The Singing General" has outsmarted us all....

We all thought the coup took place 22th May 2014.....How wrong we were

The real coup has been ongoing right under our noses.......From 22/5 2014 until today's date....

 

I don't think the guys in green are smart enough....So I wonder, who is the real architect behind this coup-extension...

I was thinking the same, no way this guy and his ostentatious mate are smart enough to mastermind a divide and rule policy years in advance. Couldn't even rig a popularity poll correctly.

[Eligius]

9 minutes ago, Tilacme said:

I was thinking the same, no way this guy and his ostentatious mate are smart enough to mastermind a divide and rule policy years in advance. Couldn't even rig a popularity poll correctly.

The real 'brains' behind things are scumbags like 'Dr. Jade' who helped write the freedom-smashing 'Constitution' (see the panel discussion about the new 'Constitution' from summer 2016: 

That guy is Western educated - and has shamefully used his brains and education to stab his own countryfolk in the back.

The lowest of the low - worthy only of utter contempt. I would not even look at this creature - still less speak to him, if ever I was unfortunate enough to be in the same stench-filled room as him ...

 

 

Edited April 14, 2018 by Eligius

[TKDfella]

Haven't the posters here been saying this?  So what's the surprise? A taste of power and he aims to keep it. No one on this forum was fooled...so I wonder who was?

[baboon]

1 hour ago, Eligius said:

I understand your points, my friend, and I respect them. Your position is certainly valid from one angle of viewing things. It takes great guts to stand up to an armed junta.

 

What I find, though, is that more often than not it is the Westerners who are really, really furious about what is happening to rights and liberties in Thailand. The Thais (and I talk to Red Shirts, farmers, taxi drivers, university lecturers, businesspeople - a wide spectrum of Thais) is that I almost never detect that incandescent rage (which I personally have often felt inside myself at what is happening here) which will be the only catalyst for change. There is a grumble about 'ratabaan tahaan mai dee' ('soldier government not good') - and that is about it. No fury. No outrage. No sense of being kicked in the face and insulted day after day by the powers that be. The Thais AT PRESENT basically go along with their own enslavement.

 

Yes, of course there are the men with guns. We all know that. But some of us (and some Thais) have taken real risks to manifest opposition to the junta (I won't and cannot be more specific). Yet I have seen Red Shirts, who claim to be very much opposed to the junta, fawn and bow and scrape in a most disgraceful manner when any representative from the junta (WITHOUT A GUN IN SIGHT) appears in their village or at their workplace. THAT is what is so wrong: this worming and squirming and genuflecting and wai-ing before illegitimate Authority figures. To me, that is unforgivable.

 

So yes, you are right: the Thais, generally, don't like this junta and MIGHT later erupt against it (that is speculation, of course: we simply do not know what the future may hold). What we DO know is that for four years the Thais en masse HAVE TAKEN all the detritus thrown at them on a daily basis - with scarcely a whimper, still less huge outrage (grumbling about a man with a few expensive watches does not cut it). That outrage and livid fury is simply not discernible. Yet I have seen it in many Westerners here. From the Thais (by and large) - no, nothing.

 

So I am afraid they are getting what they deserve (much as it pains me to say it). It is obvious that there is not going to be an election in February, and that in any case the whole thing (whenever - if ever  - it comes) will be rigged, stacked in favour of the military and their elite controllers. So now is the time to act - not wait for some bogus never-to-come 'election' that will be totally useless, anyway.

 

 There comes a point in every nation's history where it must 'grow a pair' and stand up to tyranny. Of course it is dangerous. Of course it could mean loss of life. But some of our fathers and grandfathers fought against tyranny at just such a cost.

 

The Thais have made their decision through their words and actions  (over the past four years). That is for them. It does not mean that I have to respect that decision or agree with it.

 

 

 

[Srikcir]

10 hours ago, rooster59 said:

The mixed-member proportional (MMP) representation system will be adopted for the first time in the next election.

Is this some kind of joke?

58 Posts and nobody noticed?

It's not the MMP but the Mixed-Member Apportionment (MMA) election system. The CDC considered adopting the MMP successfully used by Germany but CDC Chairman decided that it wasn't Thai enough. Hence the MMA.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/opinion/30327564

http://www.thaiexaminer.com/thai-news-foreigners/2017/11/23/thailand-preparing-for-new-demnocratic-future-as-pm-prepares-new-cabinet/

How to calculate MP seats:

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30331909

MMA, reduces the electoral fortunes of Pheu Thai. MMA also boosts the prospects of medium-sized political parties with strong constituency bases (something the previously proposed MMP failed to do), while limiting the gains for the Democrats and small parties that compete mainly through the party list.

http://www.thaidatapoints.com/project-updates/theeffectsofthailandsproposedelectoralsystembyallenhickenandbangkokpundit?tmpl=%2Fsystem%2Fapp%2Ftemplates%2Fprint%2F&showPrintDialog=1

Perfect for well financed pro-military parties.

 

[Zack61]

I feel sick

[stephen tracy]

9 hours ago, saakura said:

It seems to me that it is only the foreigners in Thailand who are angry and frustrated over Mr.P's power grab and all that he has done over the last few years to extend it. A huge, almost 99% Thais just dont seem to be bothered much, except a handful of students and activists. The only thing which can scare off these bullies is a mass uprising, which is not going to happen, as most seem to either accept or are resigned to it. Yesterday out in the streets, everyone was very happy enjoying throwing water and having a lot of fun, as always.

I'm not sure about that. the majority of people in other dictatorships such as Egypt, Tunisia and Syria hated their respective regimes for decades but it just took them a while to work up the courage to act. The regimes have the weapons and all sorts of other mechanisms and levers to keep populations from revolting.