Is Time Running Out for Thailand’s Elusive Election?

Impatience is growing after multiple delays.

By Erin Cook

 

BANGKOK: -- Since seizing power in 2014, the Thai junta has dangled the prospect of democratic elections promising the country a chance to make a choice – eventually. After announcing elections and then delaying them several times, longstanding and emergent parties as well as an increasingly fed up millennial generation have signaled an unwillingness to wait much longer. For the junta, which still hopes for the electoral victory of a military-leaning political party, further delays risk inciting the very upheaval it promised to stamp out.

 

The influence of ousted sibling prime ministers Thaksin Shinawatra and Yingluck Shinawatra still looms heavy over the Pheu Thai Party (PTP), despite them living in self-imposed exile and technically holding no official title within the party. The pair have traveled through Asia in recent months drawing the ire of the junta following reports of PTP members meeting governments abroad. In February, the government said legal officials were investigating the reports for possible violation of the constitution, which forbids “outsiders” from having any influence on political parties.

 

PTP immediately denied any involvement of the Shinawatra clan in the political doings of the party, saying any meetings were merely social affairs. Plans to have Thaksin appear via video link during Songkran festivities at the start of the month were abandoned, with senior PTP figure Watana Muangsook telling The Bangkok Post the party wanted to safeguard its own existence and not invite further scrutiny from the junta.

 

Full story: https://thediplomat.com/2018/04/is-time-running-out-for-thailands-elusive-election/

 

-- THE DIPLOMAT 2018-04-20

Is time running out for the Junta? Yes.

 

"...After announcing elections and then delaying them several times, longstanding and emergent parties as well as an increasingly fed up millennial generation have signaled an unwillingness to wait much longer. For the junta, which still hopes for the electoral victory of a military-leaning political party, further delays risk inciting the very upheaval it promised to stamp out..."

 

I think that there is great truth in the quoted passage above; there is only so many times that you can promise something, and when you don't deliver it is MUCH worse than never promising at all. Anyone out there make and break a promise to your kids? How did they react?

 

Thais have been voting, in one fashion or another, for many, many years and they expect it to continue. Further, a term in office is generally considered to be four years, and that time is passing quickly. Finally, the political classes, both old and new, are already mobilizing; you cannot put the genie back in the bottle with out massive, massive oppression; oppression won't work anymore, that time has passed.

 

Thais have come out in to the streets for political purposes many, many times in the last 50 years. Can anyone think of a reason why they won't again? If the Junta try to stay in office by using the flawed, appointed Senate, what do you think will happen? Do the numbers 1-9-9-2 mean anything?

 

The past is a prologue to the present.

 

I personally think the whole country is in denial even contemplating there will be an election in 2019. Starting from June, they will have 7 months to organise it all. Prayuts chessboard is not quite ready. 

Looking like the second hand has fallen off the time keepers time bomb.

2 minutes ago, sammieuk1 said:

Looking like the second hand has fallen off the time keepers time bomb.

Don't be so critical of the poor man. You know he has heart problems.

 

Seven months to or less to campaign ?  It is already a joke or a sham if it happens at all.  A total disregard for the Thai people. 

Fully expect there to be an unexpected national emergency or unknown threat to Thailand that will delay the elections.

 

Problems in the south preventing free national election, . Imminent ISIS attack ,  Unexplained plane crashes of opposition,  Large amount of arms and bombs found belonging to opposition. etc etc

 

 

 

Outside influence in elections is forbidden, does this include Russia.................................

1 minute ago, chainarong said:

Outside influence in elections is forbidden, does this include Russia.................................

Good point, & didn't the lovely man meet with Zuckerberg a few months ago?

 

1 hour ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Is time running out for the Junta? Yes.

 

"...After announcing elections and then delaying them several times, longstanding and emergent parties as well as an increasingly fed up millennial generation have signaled an unwillingness to wait much longer. For the junta, which still hopes for the electoral victory of a military-leaning political party, further delays risk inciting the very upheaval it promised to stamp out..."

 

I think that there is great truth in the quoted passage above; there is only so many times that you can promise something, and when you don't deliver it is MUCH worse than never promising at all. Anyone out there make and break a promise to your kids? How did they react?

 

Thais have been voting, in one fashion or another, for many, many years and they expect it to continue. Further, a term in office is generally considered to be four years, and that time is passing quickly. Finally, the political classes, both old and new, are already mobilizing; you cannot put the genie back in the bottle with out massive, massive oppression; oppression won't work anymore, that time has passed.

 

Thais have come out in to the streets for political purposes many, many times in the last 50 years. Can anyone think of a reason why they won't again? If the Junta try to stay in office by using the flawed, appointed Senate, what do you think will happen? Do the numbers 1-9-9-2 mean anything?

 

The past is a prologue to the present.

 

Mate, I just dunno... They have promised elections several times now, only to say 'Nah, just kidding' later on. What happened? A few tuts and mutters from the democrat (democrat with a small 'D') side and threats of farmer Jones returning on the other. Now of course it can't go on forever but I don't see why it cannot continue for a good while yet if need be.

There are plenty more excuses left even before the final 'But can't you see it simply isn't the right time yet'. More weapons caches to be uncovered. More 'intelligence' that Thaksin is mobilising the Tharg people of the planet Freakout to unleash God knows what on the country. Certain deaths to be exploited. Add to this an apathetic populace who are already used to being routinely lied to and who have done precisely nothing about it so far...

Just don't build your hopes is all I am saying...  

 

42 minutes ago, baboon said:

Mate, I just dunno... They have promised elections several times now, only to say 'Nah, just kidding' later on. What happened? A few tuts and mutters from the democrat (democrat with a small 'D') side and threats of farmer Jones returning on the other. Now of course it can't go on forever but I don't see why it cannot continue for a good while yet if need be.

There are plenty more excuses left even before the final 'But can't you see it simply isn't the right time yet'. More weapons caches to be uncovered. More 'intelligence' that Thaksin is mobilising the Tharg people of the planet Freakout to unleash God knows what on the country. Certain deaths to be exploited. Add to this an apathetic populace who are already used to being routinely lied to and who have done precisely nothing about it so far...

Just don't build your hopes is all I am saying...  

 

 

"...Just don't build your hopes is all I am saying...  "

 

Thanks for your concern, Mr Baboon! But, I am a big boy...

 

Could the Junta/Prayut delay the election again?

 

Yes, they certainly could and there is a high probability that they will. Will it affect me? Other than a case of disappointment, no. I am not Thai, I have no vote, and I can pack up and go if I choose.

 

Notwithstanding the above, I fervently hope that an election is held soon and the process of tossing out the Junta gets underway. I guess that I have some faith in the Thai people; I look at their recent/modern history and I see a conflict between those that want to evolve into a free(r), more Democratic, more demand-responsive, and all-around nicer society and the blood-suckers who think they deserve wealth and power because the sun's energy emanates from their rectum.

 

I choose to believe that the forces of goodness can prevail against the Prayuts of the world. If I didn't believe that, I'd pack my bags and move on...

 

"The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice."

MLK

 

Begin to realize that the junta will never again give up the power, in case of election is already clear by decree that 25% of the parliament must be reserved for the military, by that big power will the junta continue to indirectly reign. 

26 minutes ago, peperobi said:

Begin to realize that the junta will never again give up the power, in case of election is already clear by decree that 25% of the parliament must be reserved for the military, by that big power will the junta continue to indirectly reign. 

Think you have mixed up Myanmar and Thailand. 

3 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Think you have mixed up Myanmar and Thailand. 

Yes, he's saying, "Just like Myanmar."

There will eventually be an election but that will be for a "legitimised"  100 % Junta party probably with P at the helm and some token lackey party allowed to run against them as proof of  " opposition". There will be no more elections after that nor coups as neither will be required as the army will be running the country. End game.

I am sure that there will be more and more delays of the 'election' - for some of the reasons (excuses) that other posters have mentioned. I am also sure that eventually there will be exasperated outbreaks of protest and violence against the junta. The big question is: will it be on a huge scale? I very much doubt that. In fact, it will be just enough (20,000 - 30,000 people protesting on the streets, maximum)  to 'justify' even further repression of the populace.

 

It seems to me that, by and large, all the fight has been knocked out of the Thais. They have now become totally inured to just taking it, taking it, taking it. So: if they just carry on taking it - they will get more and more of the same.

 

As the Thais themselves like to say: 'Up to you!'

1 hour ago, Samui Bodoh said:

 

"The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice."

MLK

 

I wish I could believe that.But I think that admirable viewpoint is based on the last few hundred years of human history where progress despite some terrible setbacks has been made and the lot of humanity improved.

 

But there's no reason why this should necessarily continue.It's not a scientific process or an inevitable outcome.

 

An equally valid view of the future could be that envisaged by George Orwell.

 

"If you want a vision of the future imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever."

10 minutes ago, Eligius said:

I am sure that there will be more and more delays of the 'election' - for some of the reasons (excuses) that other posters have mentioned. I am also sure that eventually there will be exasperated outbreaks of protest and violence against the junta. The big question is: will it be on a huge scale? I very much doubt that. In fact, it will be just enough (20,000 - 30,000 people protesting on the streets, maximum)  to 'justify' even further repression of the populace.

 

It seems to me that, by and large, all the fight has been knocked out of the Thais. They have now become totally inured to just taking it, taking it, taking it. So: if they just carry on taking it - they will get more and more of the same.

 

As the Thais themselves like to say: 'Up to you!'

Agreed. Under the circumstances, why would the junta not think that as the people have settled for nothing so far, they won't settle for nothing again?

I see Thai people quiet + wai, quiet + wai, quiet + wai.

Then explode. BOOM!

Why you think now different? 

Thai people quiet quiet quiet BOOM!

It thainess

Time is also running out with the election requirement that parties are  required to conduct a primary election among their members to select those running for House seats. This will be particularly burdensome for small parties. http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/national/30318379 

Of course even primaries can't be held until the NCPO allows political activities.
 

30 minutes ago, Anak Nakal said:

I see Thai people quiet + wai, quiet + wai, quiet + wai.

Then explode. BOOM!

Why you think now different? 

Thai people quiet quiet quiet BOOM!

It thainess

You are right. But the Thais have been quiet now for an awfully long time -  4 years, to be exact. No sign of anything like a 'boom' yet - and that is after literally daily insults to their dignity and liberty.

 

 I doubt that there will be a sonic 'boom'. Maybe just a muted and disgruntled 'pop'!

14 minutes ago, Eligius said:

You are right. But the Thais have been quiet now for an awfully long time -  4 years, to be exact. No sign of anything like a 'boom' yet - and that is after literally daily insults to their dignity and liberty.

 

 I doubt that there will be a sonic 'boom'. Maybe just a muted and disgruntled 'pop'!

For there to be a real boom, there must be hope for a good alternative. I doubt the current alternatives are good enough for the Thais to risk their lives for. Only if they can gain a lot will they explode, the PM now is pumping money into the village funds.. the local leaders are getting their cut.. they will make sure there is no boom or that money stops. 

17 minutes ago, Eligius said:

You are right. But the Thais have been quiet now for an awfully long time -  4 years, to be exact. No sign of anything like a 'boom' yet - and that is after literally daily insults to their dignity and liberty.

 

 I doubt that there will be a sonic 'boom'. Maybe just a muted and disgruntled 'pop'!

 

The Arab Spring started with a fruit seller getting pissed off; it is worth remembering that. I can't say that a similar thing will happen here, but I'll maintain my faith in the Thai people as they have fought for their political rights before. 

 

My reading is that the Thai people aren't happy. And unhappy people aren't predictable.

 

PS I don't really accept the 4 year period; The Thai people were showing their respect for the Funeral and Mourning. However, that has passed now.

 

5 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

 

The Arab Spring started with a fruit seller getting pissed off; it is worth remembering that. I can't say that a similar thing will happen here, but I'll maintain my faith in the Thai people as they have fought for their political rights before. 

 

My reading is that the Thai people aren't happy. And unhappy people aren't predictable.

 

PS I don't really accept the 4 year period; The Thai people were showing their respect for the Funeral and Mourning. However, that has passed now.

 

You make some excellent and wholly valid points, my friend. You could be right - and I may be being too negative or pessimistic.

 

I would say, though, that the Thais' being 'unhappy' with the junta (which I think the majority are) is not enough: they need to be furious, outraged, livid with what is being done to them - but they aren't. I have met many more Westerners (and I myself am one of them) who are much more enraged and concerned about the situation in Thailand than the Thais I speak to (and that includes numerous Red Shirts - both 'uneducated' and 'educated' ones). I have not yet met even one Thai (still less an organised group) who is INCANDESCENT with fury - and they ought to be incandescent with fury at the daily detritus being poured all over them! Absent that gut-felt rage  - there will not be sufficient power for any spark to detonate MASS resistance (in the MILLIONS). It just ain't going to happen.

 

But, of course -   I could be wrong!

In my view, there is no prospect at all of an election next year, turkeys do not generally want to have an early Christmas. What is surprising to me (but perhaps not, given what I know about Thais and Thailand), is that people are discussing what I fear will be just another delayed date and just another broken promise at all. Just another futile discussion point for people who just love to discuss futile or meaningless points.

 

In my opinion, the only thing that will bring on an election is a lot of high-order violence against this illegitimate government, and since they've got the guns and 300,000 semi-intelligent muppets who can be counted on to do as they're told, I don't think that will happen. Army training is designed to bring about automatic obedience, not social conscience.

46 minutes ago, Eligius said:

You make some excellent and wholly valid points, my friend. You could be right - and I may be being too negative or pessimistic.

 

I would say, though, that the Thais' being 'unhappy' with the junta (which I think the majority are) is not enough: they need to be furious, outraged, livid with what is being done to them - but they aren't. I have met many more Westerners (and I myself am one of them) who are much more enraged and concerned about the situation in Thailand than the Thais I speak to (and that includes numerous Red Shirts - both 'uneducated' and 'educated' ones). I have not yet met even one Thai (still less an organised group) who is INCANDESCENT with fury - and they ought to be incandescent with fury at the daily detritus being poured all over them! Absent that gut-felt rage  - there will not be sufficient power for any spark to detonate MASS resistance (in the MILLIONS). It just ain't going to happen.

 

But, of course -   I could be wrong!

Sadly, I think you're pretty much on the money.

1 hour ago, Eligius said:

there will not be sufficient power for any spark to detonate MASS resistance

Wait till May when the activists resume their protests. Protests will be held every Saturday culminating in big demonstrations from 19-22 May; 4th year anniversary of the coup. Let’s see how the junta overreact and made foolish mistake that will ignite the spark. 

Who cares. This is a phony set up BS election where there will be only one outcome. Captain big head will retain his front role while being puppeteered by Prem and the council of the elite (All Military Generals). Can't really hold or call it as the name election in description as it is all a total façade.

4 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Think you have mixed up Myanmar and Thailand. 

FYI, is it like that, they will anywhere postpone the election till they are sure to win it!

19 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Wait till May when the activists resume their protests. Protests will be held every Saturday culminating in big demonstrations from 19-22 May; 4th year anniversary of the coup. Let’s see how the junta overreact and made foolish mistake that will ignite the spark. 

Fingers crossed...