The Seven Dangerous Days Myth

[snoop1130]

The Seven Dangerous Days Myth

by Aydan Stuart

 

 

As Songkran comes to a close, people recover from hangovers, repair their water damaged phones and reluctantly get back to work as the authorities pick up the pieces around them. In Chiang Mai alone, over 100 tonnes of trash that was dumped around town was collected as a record number of revelers descended onto the city, giving way to a total of 132 road accidents over the festival period. Reports across the country exclaimed in horror that the total number of accidents increased again this year, citing the famous buzz words ‘seven dangerous days’ to describe the havoc on Thai roads during the festival, mainly attributed to wet roads, thoughtless water throwing, drink driving and drowsiness.

 

But are these days really any worse than any other? Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha vowed on 17th April to introduce more stringent measures over the Songkran period to help curb the ‘carnage on the roads’. Despite promising to reduce the figures, the Junta leader has been left eating humble pie as in spite of the increased number of checkpoints, road traffic accidents and deaths on our roads did increase.

 

The ‘seven dangerous days’ was a buzz phrase created by the authorities a decade or so ago to highlight the dangers on the roads during Songkran. Perhaps it was coined during the era when Songkran really was dangerous, but when you look at the numbers today it is quite clear to see that the ‘seven dangerous days’ are no more dangerous than any other day of the year on Thailand’s roads. Actually, they’re safer.

 

From 11th – 17th April 2018, there were a total of 3,724 road accidents reported across the country. Those accidents left behind them a wake of destruction, injuring 3,897 people and killing 418, according to the latest figures Road Safety Centre. In comparison to last year, 390 people died on the roads and 3,808 people were injured during the same period.

 

Chiang Mai came up top again in the highest number of injuries at 141 and 11 deaths, but was overtaken by Nakhon Ratchasima this year which recorded a total of 20 deaths from road accidents.

 

According to the Deputy Interior Minister Sutee Markboon, the main cause of fatal crashes this year was drink driving (40%) followed by speeding (26.5%).

 

Almost 80% of all accidents, fatal or not, involved motorcycles.

 

Full Story: http://www.chiangmaicitylife.com/news/seven-dangerous-days-myth/

 

-- © Copyright Chiang City News 2018-4-20

[simoh1490]

It has always been the case, Songkran road deaths are lower than any other time of the year, because of the increased awareness and focus by the police - they could even get them lower if they tried. 

[aguy30]

Thailand has 25,000 traffic deaths a year and there were 418 deaths for the 7 days of Songkran.

 

The average is 68.49 a day for a year while Songkran averaged only 59.71 per day. Songkran deaths were about 7 less than a normal day.

 

It appears to be less dangerous to be on the roads during Songkran. So does the Seven Day Myth doesn't make sense?

[aguy30]

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Edited April 20, 2018 by aguy30

[aguy30]

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Edited April 20, 2018 by aguy30

[smedly]

8 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The Seven Dangerous Days Myth

wow yes, it is actually 365 days carnage on Thai roads - that in 100% not a myth 

[Darcula]

Not a myth - Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday.....

[RichardColeman]

16 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The ‘seven dangerous days’ was a buzz phrase created by the authorities a decade or so ago to highlight the dangers on the roads during Songkran. Perhaps it was coined during the era when Songkran really was dangerous, but when you look at the numbers today it is quite clear to see that the ‘seven dangerous days’ are no more dangerous than any other day of the year on Thailand’s roads. Actually, they’re safer.

Absolute rubbish - this writer seems to be forgetting the sheer amount of resources put in to keep this figure low during this time arrests, vehicle confiscations, driving ban orders, tags, drug and alcohol check points, etc.  Without that the figure would be far higher than the normal daily average. If anything, it highlights that the nutters are doing it every other day also apart from Songkran !

[Cake Monster]

The " Myth of Seven Deadly Days of Songkran " is merely a media hype for the period of the Thai new Year.

 

With an estimated 25,000 persons perishing on Thai roads every year, the " Myth " should be quashed and the Media should have a prolonged and sustained campaign of Road Safety awareness.

[fakename]

Does anyone believe Thai Statistics? Every interest group has their own Method to clean up the statistics, to suit their own agenda. 

[aydanstuart]

34 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

Absolute rubbish - this writer seems to be forgetting the sheer amount of resources put in to keep this figure low during this time arrests, vehicle confiscations, driving ban orders, tags, drug and alcohol check points, etc.  Without that the figure would be far higher than the normal daily average. If anything, it highlights that the nutters are doing it every other day also apart from Songkran !

Please read the entire article by following the link, we do go into that although ThaiVisa does enjoy stealing a good 2/3 of our articles so nobody reads the ending. 

[Classic Ray]

The Home Office in the UK produced their statistics based on the Accident Reports submitted by the police after every road traffic collision involving injury or death. Death included everyone dying within a year from causes attributable to the collision. Only with reliable reporting with standard criteria can any statistics be meaningful and that is far from the position in Thailand.

[NanLaew]

50 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

Absolute rubbish - this writer seems to be forgetting the sheer amount of resources put in to keep this figure low during this time arrests, vehicle confiscations, driving ban orders, tags, drug and alcohol check points, etc.  Without that the figure would be far higher than the normal daily average. If anything, it highlights that the nutters are doing it every other day also apart from Songkran !

Agreed. The extra enforcement keeps the Songkran statistics closer to the national, annual average and if they didn't do it, the '7-day' numbers would be truly shocking.

[HHTel]

18 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

as in spite of the increased number of checkpoints,

When will they learn that checkpoints are a waste of time and manpower and can even exacerbate the situation.  If the police were to get off their backsides and do some real policing then we may see some results.

[smedly]

Lets suppose for a moment that proactive traffic law enforcement suddenly became a reality and the police started to patrol the roads effectively catching and convicting  people in the act 365 days a year all around the country - what we in the west would consider to be proper law enforcement...................

 

It would still take several years for that to have an impact as road users gradually start to realise that they can no longer get away with their bad driving habits and are highly likely to get caught and punished, that is why these so called "clamp downs" don't work and will never work, it has to be consistent policing over a long period of time before it would have a permanent impact on Thailands atrocious daily/yearly road carnage - currently the worst in the world 

[smedly]

25 minutes ago, HHTel said:

When will they learn that checkpoints are a waste of time and manpower and can even exacerbate the situation.  If the police were to get off their backsides and do some real policing then we may see some results.

checkpoints are not a waste of time but they only target specific things like drunk driving and vehicle inspections, catching someone for having no helmet - tax insurance or licence contribute little to nothing to road safety. The primary targets are drunk driving - reckless driving - speeding - using a mobile device while driving and general stupidity which are all moving violations (drunk driving being the exception)   

[Russell17au]

2 hours ago, HHTel said:

When will they learn that checkpoints are a waste of time and manpower and can even exacerbate the situation.  If the police were to get off their backsides and do some real policing then we may see some results.

If the police were supplied with the equipement to do the policing instead of having to buy their own then we might be able to see some proper policing on the roads over the whole of the country and not just in selected areas like Bangkok

[DrTuner]

Well it's hard to hit a tree with your pickup while stuck in 2km/h traffic jam, no matter how drunk you are.

[Airbagwill]

20 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

It has always been the case, Songkran road deaths are lower than any other time of the year, because of the increased awareness and focus by the police - they could even get them lower if they tried. 

I pointed this figure discrepancy out several years ago.

This year for the FIRST TIME several papers have pointed out this statistical conundrum........ except that it isn't.

Almost every country that gathers statistics has a drop in deaths and injuries over major holiday periods.

Why....well I think that to credit the police is wildly optimistic....their checkpoints probably result in adding to the crash statistics rather than reducing them.

There IS an increased awareness over the holiday, but to understand the real reasons for a slight decrease in death and injury, one needs to look at the demographics.....who is actually driving and where.

The fact is the over the holiday there is an almost total absence of heavy goods traffic....vehicles are largely private 4 wheeled which account for about 26% of deaths on a "normal" day.

2, 3 wheelers and VULNERABLE road users normally account for 80% and crashes involving alcohol are normally 33%    .So no great dramatic change, what you do have is a lot of family groups travelling long distance who are in general aware of the basics. I do wonder though how 2 wheelers maintain their percentage. Logically one could assume that use of 2 wheelers over the holiday would drop. No commuting and it would seem relatively few attempt the long journeys on a small bike.

It would be nice to see where the crashes mostly take place and when....I suspect, looking at the hotspots, they occur not I much on the long journey itself, but in the areas predominantly travelled to after the family has arrived there, they then spend 3 or 4 days travelling around that region and possibly quite over the alcohol limits.

 

Whateover the reason there is absolutely nothing to suggest that the police have anything but a negative impact on the crash rates at holiday time.

[Airbagwill]

43 minutes ago, Russell17au said:

If the police were supplied with the equipement to do the policing instead of having to buy their own then we might be able to see some proper policing on the roads over the whole of the country and not just in selected areas like Bangkok

No..... enforcement is only one of the 5 Es of road safety and in Thailand the police themselves are neither equipped nor trained to deal with road safety.

Firstly it requires a new police force and secondly an environment in which they can operate. ....neither of which exists even looks like coming into existence any time soon.

[Airbagwill]

17 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Well it's hard to hit a tree with your pickup while stuck in 2km/h traffic jam, no matter how drunk you are.

This is true and it also points out the existence of trees on the central reservations of many Thai highways, which is one example of how dreadfully the roads are designed.

[simoh1490]

36 minutes ago, Airbagwill said:

I pointed this figure discrepancy out several years ago.

 

 

I agree with what you wrote and can only add that perhaps the decrease in commercial traffic is partially offset by more people consuming more alcohol, outside of traditional hours. I also cannot see what role the police checks play in the statistics albeit they do seem to catch quite a few people that way, I mean, it's not as if all of a sudden the BiB are actively out there testing would be drink motorists, the strategy seems to be, let them come to us rather than us go to them.

[Airbagwill]

4 hours ago, Classic Ray said:

The Home Office in the UK produced their statistics based on the Accident Reports submitted by the police after every road traffic collision involving injury or death. Death included everyone dying within a year from causes attributable to the collision. Only with reliable reporting with standard criteria can any statistics be meaningful and that is far from the position in Thailand.

There is no time limit on road deaths in UK stats there is a national statistics office though......and the police are not only trained  in road safety but also in detailed scientific analysis of road incidents.....Go to their site and you'll be bowled over by the quantity and detail of the info available.....every single incident big and small for years and years.

Police and national stats office not only declare their sources and methodologies, they when collect this minutely detailed data of EVERY reported crash, one of the main differences is that injuries have 3 categories minor, serious and fatal.

The situation inThailand is frankly embarrassing the police are mere amateurs when it comes to collecting stats and they were discarded as the single source about 4 or 5 years ago. Now the REAL stats I.e. the ones you can use on an annual basis are collated from a mish-mash of sources, with only a limited amount of helpful info available, how accurate is is is definitely questionable.....but it can give us as an overall picture. The thing is it's data and the results are got by "doing science" with the available data.

 

The problem with virtually every thread on TV is that there is a positively Neanderthal obsession with one single statistic..- .deaths per 1000k  - which is then simply incorrectly interpreted by those who don't know the FIRST thing about road safety....one gets the impression that because they can operate a motor vehicle they assume they are consequently "experts" ( I hate that word!) on road safety.

Result ...  a continuous stream of nonsense about road safety in Thailand.

[Airbagwill]

8 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

I agree with what you wrote and can only add that perhaps the decrease in commercial traffic is partially offset by more people consuming more alcohol, outside of traditional hours. I also cannot see what role the police checks play in the statistics albeit they do seem to catch quite a few people that way, I mean, it's not as if all of a sudden the BiB are actively out there testing would be drink motorists, the strategy seems to be, let them come to us rather than us go to them.

Yes...it's hardly proactive.... You have to be already drunk and in the car. PREVENTION seems to be an anathema to the RTP. I guess they get points for catching but can't show those they prevented.

[Airbagwill]

9 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

I agree with what you wrote and can only add that perhaps the decrease in commercial traffic is partially offset by more people consuming more alcohol, outside of traditional hours. I also cannot see what role the police checks play in the statistics albeit they do seem to catch quite a few people that way, I mean, it's not as if all of a sudden the BiB are actively out there testing would be drink motorists, the strategy seems to be, let them come to us rather than us go to them.

Yes...it's hardly proactive.... You have to be already drunk and in the car. PREVENTION seems to be an anathema to the RTP. I guess they get points for catching but can't show those they prevented.

[rwill]

It is more the highly congested highways with traffic going 20K/H instead of 120K/H that reduces the fatalites, not policing.