When will Thai Baht get back to reality

[NoshowJones]

21 minutes ago, Ks45672 said:

Broke ass pensioners who can't afford it anyway wouldn't be a big loss imo?.... 

 

I doubt the few Leo's they can afford to buy are propping up the Thai economy but you're entitled to your opinion

A lot of these pensioners you mention have bought houses, cars, motorbikes etc when they first came here and taken Thai families out of poverty and gave many of them better lives, so now you are saying they wouldn't be a big loss? I think it is time you got a life and stop being so selfish.

[Henryford]

30 minutes ago, ScammedInThailand said:

When I visited Thailand from my home in Hong Kong in 2005 - the exchange rate was HK$1 - 5.29 THB. Today, you will be lucky to get 4.15 THB for the HK$! 

 

HK has a very stable government, with excellent governance and fiscal management, very low levels of both crime and corruption, is largely populated by extremely well-educated, professional people working for the world's leading financial institutions and many MNC's Asian headquarter offices. 

 

Compare that to the toilet that is Thailand and its mickey-mouse government, that boasts the world's largest number of civil & military uprisings, Asia's most badly managed economy, total lack of investment and infrastructure [except that provided by the Chinese] over the same period of time. There is absolutely no logical explanation why the Baht has increased to such levels - except by manipulation. 

The explanation is not that the Thai Baht is particularly strong it is that the other, mainly western, currencies are weak and are being dragged down by money printing.

[keith101]

16 hours ago, Unsane said:

What is reality?

TIT

[2008bangkok]

Funny I was just looking at the last 30 yrs this morning, in the 90s it was as lows as 36 to the gbp then shot up to 90 settled at 70s and sliding ever since. So what is the actual real rate it should be.

[Cranky]

First reality is even a 30-50% swing in currency value doesn't bother anyone with enough cash to already have a diversified cash holding/hedge in Baht and home currency, maybe even an additional one - USD for example for a Brit.  Prudent cash management dictates you should buy a couple of years or more cash requirements on the dips in value.

 

Second reality is nobody gives a flying one if poorer people leave Thailand - they are actually encouraged to fly off.  Tourists will always turn up regardless.

 

[RobFord]

My understanding is that Thailand ( having learned from the last Asian crash ) has huge US dollar reserves and does all its trade ( buying and selling ) in that currency. The baht is tied to the US dollar. 

 

The US dollar goes down and the baht promptly follows. 

[Unsane]

1 hour ago, nickmondo said:

what a stupid thing to say.  Reason being, the tourists wont come here, and the ex pats will leave in their droves.

I think we've seen evidence of this for the past two odd years.

[simoh1490]

14 minutes ago, 2008bangkok said:

Funny I was just looking at the last 30 yrs this morning, in the 90s it was as lows as 36 to the gbp then shot up to 90 settled at 70s and sliding ever since. So what is the actual real rate it should be.

The Baht was pegged against USD until the crash in 97, after that it was floated but on a managed peg which is where it is today. A managed peg means the BOT can intervene to smooth out large and sudden rises and falls and also to ensure THB remains in a range as required by ASEAN. The only intervention or direct currency manipulation we've seen is when BOT has intervened to prevent THB from strengthening too quickly and on this they spent billions. 

[simoh1490]

3 minutes ago, RobFord said:

My understanding is that Thailand ( having learned from the last Asian crash ) has huge US dollar reserves and does all its trade ( buying and selling ) in that currency. The baht is tied to the US dollar. 

 

The US dollar goes down and the baht promptly follows. 

The baht is not tied to USD or to any other currency.

[freebyrd]

Reality?! - in Thailand?!

[simoh1490]

If you want the Baht to weaken so that you've got more money to spend you'll need to pray for a crash in Thai exports and in inbound tourism, that will create a trade deficit and foreign direct investment (FDI) will cease - the result will be mass bankruptcies and business failures with millions thrown back into poverty........but you'll have your improved exchange rates. Be careful what you wish for.

[theguyfromanotherforum]

36 minutes ago, possum1931 said:

A lot of these pensioners you mention have bought houses, cars, motorbikes etc when they first came here and taken Thai families out of poverty and gave many of them better lives, so now you are saying they wouldn't be a big loss? I think it is time you got a life and stop being so selfish.

 

You contributed to Thai baht appreciation by doing exactly that. If someone from communist country like myself has to explain this to you then good luck.

 

Tip of the day!

 

Thousands of Brit, Arabs, Nigerians and Jews that are arriving daily to Pattaya are also contributing to the strength of Thai baht. Can your government compete with that? Maybe it could if it had pretty girls, but according to you western women are dogs, so what's a guy gonna do?

 

Expect 10 baht to Aussie dollar in 10 years.

[csabo]

I got here 5 years ago and convert from USD so if you average me out I'm at about 34 baht each USD. Some years high some years low but overall long term I'm happy with that. 

[crazyk]

Have you checked pre 1997 before the baht was in the 90's  to 1gbp,it was 36-38 to 1gbp then

[simoh1490]

3 minutes ago, crazyk said:

Have you checked pre 1997 before the baht was in the 90's  to 1gbp,it was 36-38 to 1gbp then

...because it was hard pegged to USD!

[Psimbo]

13 minutes ago, theguyfromanotherforum said:

 

You contributed to Thai baht appreciation by doing exactly that. If someone from communist country like myself has to explain this to you then good luck.

 

Tip of the day!

 

Thousands of Brit, Arabs, Nigerians and Jews that are arriving daily to Pattaya are also contributing to the strength of Thai baht. Can your government compete with that? Maybe it could if it had pretty girls, but according to you western women are dogs, so what's a guy gonna do?

 

Expect 10 baht to Aussie dollar in 10 years.

I never realised that was a nationality! 

[NoshowJones]

17 minutes ago, theguyfromanotherforum said:

 

You contributed to Thai baht appreciation by doing exactly that. If someone from communist country like myself has to explain this to you then good luck.

 

Tip of the day!

 

Thousands of Brit, Arabs, Nigerians and Jews that are arriving daily to Pattaya are also contributing to the strength of Thai baht. Can your government compete with that? Maybe it could if it had pretty girls, but according to you western women are dogs, so what's a guy gonna do?

 

Expect 10 baht to Aussie dollar in 10 years.

Where did I say western woman are dogs? I have had many a good time with beautiful western women back in Scotland before I came to live in Thailand.

[Ks45672]

59 minutes ago, possum1931 said:

A lot of these pensioners you mention have bought houses, cars, motorbikes etc when they first came here and taken Thai families out of poverty and gave many of them better lives, so now you are saying they wouldn't be a big loss? I think it is time you got a life and stop being so selfish.

If you can't afford Thailand with a weak pound maybe it's time to try Somalia...... 

[theguyfromanotherforum]

Just now, possum1931 said:

Where did I say western woman are dogs? I have had many a good time with beautiful western women back in Scotland before I came to live in Thailand.

 

Maybe I confused you with someone with a similar avatar. Apologies.

[Different]

18 hours ago, ELVIS123456 said:

The Chinese have been accused of currency manipulation

Bingo.

[NoshowJones]

16 minutes ago, theguyfromanotherforum said:

 

Maybe I confused you with someone with a similar avatar. Apologies.

No problem, it's happened to me as well.

[FritsSikkink]

2 hours ago, poanoi said:

actually the northern countries of EU is doing well,

but the southern pigs are dragging it down

The UK has a record debt at the moment.

[Get Real]

At the same time as temple cows get the regognized higher status of a soi dog. That will mean, approximately never. 

[thailand49]

2 hours ago, Franko666 said:

 

 

It depends which way you are going, its a 2 way st. Taking money out of Thailand is a great deal atm. Thats the thing with exchange rates, there are winners and losers and ex pats losing atm. Time to move on?

Don't see the relationship with my comment and your response, I mentioned nothing of a ATM in or out of the country.

[poanoi]

28 minutes ago, FritsSikkink said:

The UK has a record debt at the moment.

fortunately they re soon out of EU and the EU #fundme fondle fond

[RobFord]

1 hour ago, simoh1490 said:

The baht is not tied to USD or to any other currency.

The baht is tied to a basket of currencies dominated by the US dollar, and to the value of it’s foreign reserves ( do an online search ).

What do you think would happen to the baht if Thailand burnt through all its US$ and could no longer trade using that currency? Obviously it would tank.

The stability of the Thai baht is based upon its ( largely US ) foreign reserves, and when the the value of those reserves depreciate so does the value of the baht. 

I experienced it directly during the 2008 crisis when the baht and US$ devalued against the Canadian dollar. 

 

 

[Advocate]

The British are crying as their GBP once 70 Baht is now 43, ~40% down. Likewise A$ is about ~20% down.

 

The downward trajectory of the British economy and the GBP will make eventual parity between the GBP and the THB a possibility.

 

In the 1990s and before the 1997 Asia economic crisis it was about 40 THB per GBP and  19+ THB per AUD and 25 THB per USD.

 

What is reality?

 

Cheer up lads. Rice porridge is still cheap, even when paying in cheap GBP.

Edited May 9, 2018 by Advocate

[DJ54]

It sucks but let’s hope it stabilizes.  I lived China 10 years exchange rate was around 10 in the early years and 6 ish now. Was paid USD and had to learn to live with the decrease. 

[masuk]

19 hours ago, ELVIS123456 said:

Yeh - anything around 28-30 Baht to the AUD would be nice too (and normal).  I guess it will eventually change back.  But I just cannot understand that the currency of a 3rd world country that is being run by a military junta, can run the course that it currently is running.  Is the US doing soemthing to prop them up, and create an economic buffer against China?? It has to be something along those lines to last for so long, because it aint due to the normal economic and interest rate cycles.

 

 

3

It's not being helped by the banks also charging their own special exchange rate.   BKK bank take out about 1 baht per $ which knocks the pension even further.   

[Suradit69]

20 hours ago, ELVIS123456 said:

Far be it for me to accuse anyone of doing anything 'innapropriate', but it does seem to me that the rise in the value of the Baht over the last 2-3 years is totally unjustified. 

The US dollar index has shown weakness measured against other currencies for a couple of years. The EU is facing existential threats and some collapsing member economies that weigh on them all, and no one seems sure what the effect of Brexit will be. Sanctions and trade wars, real or imagined, impact many countries.

 

You're rather naive to assume that the Thai baht moves in isolation or that it would be possible for any significant, sustained manipulation to be orchestrated. To hint that wealthy Thais have magically moved the exchange rate to buy cheaper cars is silly and ignores that the source of their wealth is quite likely, directly or indirectly connected to exporting goods or services.

 

Although there are some benefits to a strong currency, Thailand is export-dependent, so if your conspiracy theory had any validity,  the conspirators' motives would need explaining.

 

Quote

Thailand is the 20th largest export economy in the world and the 21st most complex economy according to the Economic Complexity Index (ECI). In 2015, Thailand exported $231B and imported $190B, resulting in a positive trade balance of $40.6B. In 2015 the GDP of Thailand was $395B and its GDP per capita was $16.3k.

https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/tha/