ANALYSIS: Why Chuan is in the running to become PM

[rooster59]

ANALYSIS: Why Chuan is in the running to become PM

By POLITICAL DESK 
THE SUNDAY NATION

 

 

THE UPSET election victory of Malaysia’s Mahathir Mohamad at the age of 92 has heartened fans of Thai veteran politicians, particularly those of former prime minister Chuan Leekpai.

 

Chuan, the Democrat Party’s chief adviser who turns 80 in July, was pitted early this year against Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha as a key competitor for the premiership after the next election.

 

Observers at that time argued that only a post-election alliance between the country’s two largest political parties – Pheu Thai and Democrat – would be able to thwart the ruling junta’s return to power through General Prayut’s comeback as head of government.

 

 

Chuan, a former leader of the Democrat Party, was viewed as a “compromise” choice. Pheu Thai and their “red shirt” supporters certainly would not allow current Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva to lead their coalition government, given their past bitter mutual hostility.

Now, after Mahathir’s success, talk of pushing Chuan as a PM candidate has been revived. Political analysts view him as a strong contender for the premiership, as it is highly likely he will be one of the three PM candidates from the Democrat Party. The new Constitution that came into effect in April last year, requires that political parties nominate no more than three prime ministerial candidates before contesting an election.

 

Democrat leader Abhisit said he believed Chuan, who is viewed as his political mentor, commanded considerable support from voters, as many people had both respect and faith in him.

 

“Chuan is a model good politician in the democratic system,” Abhisit said. However, the Democrat leader said it remained unclear who would be the party’s three PM nominations. That would be decided by its new executive board, who would be elected by Democrat members after the junta ban on political activities was lifted, he added.

 

Former Democrat deputy leader Alongkorn Ponlaboot voiced support for Chuan contesting the prime minister’s seat. 

 

“After Mahathir’s return as prime minister at 92, many people are thinking of Chuan as an alternative. He is a symbol of honesty. If the Democrat Party reforms itself and has a new vision, it may recreate a ‘Mahathir phenomenon’ here,” said Alongkorn, who served as deputy president of the post-coup National Reform Steering Assembly.

 

Observers believe that Prayut will seek a return to power.

 

One thing is for sure: A new political party linked to the ruling junta, the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), will be set up to complete the mission to return Prayut to Government House. 

 

Whatever its official name, the “NCPO party” will become another major player after the election, in addition to the Democrat and Pheu Thai parties. And there is a high likelihood that none of the three alone will win an absolute majority in the House of Representatives. 

 

Two of them would need to join forces in order to gain a House majority. An alliance between Pheu Thai and the NCPO party is likely impossible. The Democrats are more likely to get the upper hand among the three; they can choose whether to join the Pheu Thai or the pro-junta party.

 

The Democrats last won a general election in 1992 under Chuan’s leadership. He became prime minister for the first time after the national vote, which was held following the collapse of a pro-military government that cracked down on pro-democracy protests against a non-elected prime minister. “The Democrat Party certainly will become part of the post-election government. But whether we will get the PM seat depends on the numbers after the election,” said a source in the country’s oldest party.

 

The Democrats will certainly bargain for the PM’s seat if they are approached to join a post-election coalition government, if the other key partner wins just slightly more House seats than the Democrats do, according to the source. 

 

Chuan has a better chance than anyone else in his party to win acceptance from the other potential coalition partner, whether it is Pheu Thai or the NCPO party. So, the veteran is going to be a key challenger to Prayut for the premiership.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30345821

 

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2018-05-20

[ezzra]

As much as Thai people loath to be ruled by strongmen and puppets and always yearn for the good and honest men as PM, in most of the time somehow, the formers find themselves elected, ( or self appointed) Cuan PM-ship was a lackluster one albeit fair and honest one, are the Thai people ready for the return of such person? we shall wait and see....

[Samui Bodoh]

I have no strong feelings regarding Chuan, and if I am the norm then it might be a good thing; sometimes boring is an asset in a politician. However, I would hesitate in making too many comparisons with Mahatir; there is a huge chasm between being an ineffectual leader for a short time in the early 90s and being a dominant Prime Minister for 22 years. To paraphrase a political adage from America; "I knew Mahatir. Mahatir was a friend of mine. Chuan, you are no Mahatir!".

 

...“The Democrat Party certainly will become part of the post-election government. But whether we will get the PM seat depends on the numbers after the election,” said a source in the country’s oldest party... The Democrats will certainly bargain for the PM’s seat if they are approached to join a post-election coalition government, if the other key partner wins just slightly more House seats than the Democrats do, according to the source..."

 

When I read statements like the one above, I seriously start to cringe. It is true that the Dems are Thailand's oldest political party, but many would argue that the reason for that is a slavish devotion to whomever has power, and ultimately no one likes a Lap Dog/Yes Man; they are just... icky.

 

The Dems need to regain a great deal of credibility after their shameful actions since the beginning of this century; they would be better suited displaying some humility and re-building rather than arrogantly assuming that they are in the running for leadership.

 

Edited May 19, 2018 by Samui Bodoh
Lack of coffee

[Thailand]

Shouldn't the new pm be chosen from the ranks of the party with the most votes.

 

Oops, stupid me.

[Oziex1]

Isn't the election winner now a forgone conclusion?

[candide]

51 minutes ago, Thailand said:

Shouldn't the new pm be chosen from the ranks of the party with the most votes.

 

Oops, stupid me.

It looks like everybody has understood that there won't be any elected PM, so they are already campaigning for the outsider PM position.....

[bannork]

26 minutes ago, Thailand said:

Shouldn't the new pm be chosen from the ranks of the party with the most votes.

 

Oops, stupid me.

The party with the most votes may be unable to form a government if the other parties form a coalition that outnumbers them in numbers of MPs

And under the new voting system, MMP, smaller parties have a much better chance of gaining party list MPs.

For instance, supposing Pheua Thai gain 30% of the national constituency vote ( only one vote now) and let's suppose they win 200 of the 350 constituencies.

(There are 350 constituency MPs and 150 Party List or Proportional Representation MPs).

By winning 30% of the national vote, they are entitled to 30% of all the seats (500) regarding the Party List. That equals 150 seats. But they already have 200 seats so in theory get nothing under the Party List system.

But it is not that simple. The country is divided into 7 regions and the votes are counted for those regions.

In both the south and the north the parties that came second, the Democrats and Pheua Thai respectively, may see their number of PL MPs increase, for though they came second in the constituencies their total number of votes was a high enough percentage to win some PL seats.

Regarding Mr Chuan. I thought he said just 2 days ago he was not interested in running as party leader ever again.

But PM? We live in strange times, anything may be possible. Democrats join with PT, Abhisit resigns as leader in protest. Democrats join with Prayuth, Abhisit resigns. Who knows right now?

 

 

[Darcula]

2 hours ago, rooster59 said:

Why Chuan is in the running to become PM

 

Always around when a good whitewash is needed.

[MrJohnson]

No party will be able to govern without being aligned, in one way or another, with the military. Coalition most likely with the Man-in-Green at the helm. Sad but true. And it will last only as long as the military keep their foot on the throat of any kind of opposition. Expect to see some form of Section 44 be (re) invented and used regularly to stifle free speech, debate and protest.

[Anak Nakal]

Why Chuan is in the running to become PM?

Because Abhisit is loser.

[Odysseus123]

Whist I do understand the present political situation (I hope) I still find it disheartening that ancient,uninspired workhorses are now led out of their stalls and are being paraded as being some sort of alternative..

 

These folks are stifling the life out of Thailand.

[MrJohnson]

1 hour ago, Anak Nakal said:

Why Chuan is in the running to become PM?

Because Abhisit is loser.

More likely because of the antipathy of the pro-Thaksin camp towards him because he was at the helm when the crackdown occurred in 2009-10. The deaths, injuries and detention that followed were never investigated. They would not probably not sit at the same table together.

[KiwiKiwi]

4 hours ago, ezzra said:

As much as Thai people loath to be ruled by strongmen and puppets and always yearn for the good and honest men as PM, in most of the time somehow, the formers find themselves elected, ( or self appointed) Cuan PM-ship was a lackluster one albeit fair and honest one, are the Thai people ready for the return of such person? we shall wait and see....

Chuan widely regarded as having had the least corrupt government ever in Thailand. One dark cloud on that horizon was Suthep of course, as I recall he was forced to resign or have his corruption exposed. Now there's a thoroughly dishonest scallywag - a wonderful example of what a Thai can really be.

 

I doubt he could lie straight in bed.

[KiwiKiwi]

7 minutes ago, MrJohnson said:

More likely because of the antipathy of the pro-Thaksin camp towards him because he was at the helm when the crackdown occurred in 2009-10. The deaths, injuries and detention that followed were never investigated. They would not probably not sit at the same table together.

 

And neither should they. A blatant opportunist, and in my opinion, a despicably dishonest character.

[humbug]

endemic corruption in the past under Chuan.He is no angelic pipe smoking grandfather in front of the fireplace.

 

This is what happens when you control the media you can play with peoples mindsets and put seeds in their heads to let them grow.

Edited May 20, 2018 by humbug

[chainarong]

4 hours ago, ezzra said:

As much as Thai people loath to be ruled by strongmen and puppets and always yearn for the good and honest men as PM, in most of the time somehow, the formers find themselves elected, ( or self appointed) Cuan PM-ship was a lackluster one albeit fair and honest one, are the Thai people ready for the return of such person? we shall wait and see....

The only time Thailand has moved forward was under Chuan, (1997) Thailand was on everyone's lips,  so much so it lead to the Asian depression, Thai went under and pulled even China down, called the Thaitantic, even in China's glory day's it never hit the 17 1/2 Percent that Thailand did. 

[KiwiKiwi]

19 minutes ago, chainarong said:

The only time Thailand has moved forward was under Chuan, (1997) Thailand was on everyone's lips,  so much so it lead to the Asian depression, Thai went under and pulled even China down, called the Thaitantic, even in China's glory day's it never hit the 17 1/2 Percent that Thailand did. 

The same thing nearly happened again when the coup government in 2005/6 introduced the witholding tax on investments. That was a very near miss for Thailand, and their utter incompetence was on display for all to see again. I know a number of hi-so Thais were embarrassed to be Thai during that time.

[Baerboxer]

2 hours ago, KiwiKiwi said:

 

And neither should they. A blatant opportunist, and in my opinion, a despicably dishonest character.

 

Your opinion of Thaksin.

[soalbundy]

6 hours ago, ezzra said:

As much as Thai people loath to be ruled by strongmen and puppets and always yearn for the good and honest men as PM, in most of the time somehow, the formers find themselves elected, ( or self appointed) Cuan PM-ship was a lackluster one albeit fair and honest one, are the Thai people ready for the return of such person? we shall wait and see....

yes, show is wanted not substance.

[Eric Loh]

It is unfortunate that the Dem Party never had strong leadership. Both Chuan and Ahbisit are weak leaders. Suthep was the real power behind the party and pulled all the strings. Both have no guts to sack him for his corruption.  

[kannot]

5 hours ago, Anak Nakal said:

Why Chuan is in the running to become PM?

Because Abhisit is loser.

Thailand is the loser, they need to stop shuffling their feet and get real

[scorecard]

10 hours ago, ezzra said:

As much as Thai people loath to be ruled by strongmen and puppets and always yearn for the good and honest men as PM, in most of the time somehow, the formers find themselves elected, ( or self appointed) Cuan PM-ship was a lackluster one albeit fair and honest one, are the Thai people ready for the return of such person? we shall wait and see....

 

Good points, I was also here when Khun Chua was PM, he was widely liked and seen as honest and humble but I suspect many Thais would also comment he was way too slow to get things discussed and way too slow to make decisions. From my understanding he asked for more and more fine details before making decisions, often the small details which are just not needed for the initial big picture / strategic decisions.