Newly elected Future Forward leader Thanathorn vows to dump 2017 charter

[Eric Loh]

17 minutes ago, cliveshep said:

Ah, so any new Government would have a massive job on it's hands to overturn that (corrupt?) establishment first if it sought real reform?

 

So the men with guns would be unlikely to support THAT! Another coup would come then?

Hopefully those parties like PTP and FFP who have made very strong statements on curbing the excesses of the military will win big and form the next elected government. Even the Dem Party may join in the coalition to put the military in their places. If they get enough support from powerful people and the general public, they can override the resistance of the senators to call for a referendum to re-write the charter and insert laws to break the coup cycle. Angry Thais can break the military dominance like in Malaysia where the incumbent party 48 years in power was brought down. The junta excesses in delaying election and corruption may just be the spark that anger many Thais including some elites. 

[jayboy]

3 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Hopefully those parties like PTP and FFP who have made very strong statements on curbing the excesses of the military will win big and form the next elected government. Even the Dem Party may join in the coalition to put the military in their places. If they get enough support from powerful people and the general public, they can override the resistance of the senators to call for a referendum to re-write the charter and insert laws to break the coup cycle. Angry Thais can break the military dominance like in Malaysia where the incumbent party 48 years in power was brought down. The junta excesses in delaying election and corruption may just be the spark that anger many Thais including some elites. 

I hope so but I fear you may be underestimating the myopia and cowardice of the Bangkok middle class.They might be tiring of the Junta but will instinctively embrace another party protecting their privileged position over the majority of their countrymen.

[Happyman58]

1 hour ago, cliveshep said:

I am not well up on Thai politics and I've been reading a bit about it in various places about recent history. I'm really confused as to how all this works. I read that there have been loads of these "coups" over the last decade or so, where the army steal the country at gunpoint and give it back later on, sometimes after the people rise up and demand it.

 

What puzzles me is this, in my country the armed services, army, navy, air-force are required to swear loyalty to the Queen, so any coup would be regarded as a mutiny and the people doing it would automatically be charged as traitors and imprisoned for treason once the country went back to civilian rule. I believe the USA is the same.  Other countries are even more ruthless, Turkey was in the news a while back for ruthlessly hunting down those who tried a coup, previously Egypt was unforgiving of a previous government too.

 

What puzzles me is that while it seems de rigeur to prosecute former Prime Ministers here, from what I have gleaned there have been a few including the last one, Yingluck and her brother before, and I make no comment about the truth or otherwise of the charges. What astonishes me is how after every coup the coup leaders are not imprisoned for treason. How does that work? Don't the military here also have to swear allegiance to the King or the country? How do they survive the aftermath of a coup when the country becomes governed by an elected government? Nothing I read suggests any form of censure let alone punishment for breaking the Oath of Allegiance or whatever. 

 

Can someone who understands the system here explain what happens? Am I missing something? Sorry to express ignorance.

Mate, I am also in the dark about that. Judging by the number of coups they have had they must not have to allegiance to anybody. It was a well-known fact, Adolf Hitler, when he came to power made the military swear allegiance to him and it stopped a lot of German soldiers and officers from trying to get rid of him. Also the guy with the new party I wish him luck but feel he be waiting a long time for an election because this mob in power now has no intention of having one for a long time. The so-called Road Map is a never-ending street and it used to hide behind when the Pm is asked when an election will be held.

[Oziex1]

The question is what cards does he have up his sleeve to trump the military and their backers.

Overwhelming public support may not be enough. 

[KiwiKiwi]

52 minutes ago, Odysseus123 said:

Hmmm....

 

Much as I like your posts KiwiKiwi you are surely missing something here...something about the apex...

 

Monsieur le Trump is (i guess) at the apex but General Prayuth is not.

 

Yes. Indeed. And for any ambiguity in that, I apologise.

 

What you're thinking is absolutely correct. Unless I'm not as good as I think you are, which I doubt.

[KiwiKiwi]

23 minutes ago, Happyman58 said:

Mate, I am also in the dark about that. Judging by the number of coups they have had they must not have to allegiance to anybody. It was a well-known fact, Adolf Hitler, when he came to power made the military swear allegiance to him and it stopped a lot of German soldiers and officers from trying to get rid of him. Also the guy with the new party I wish him luck but feel he be waiting a long time for an election because this mob in power now has no intention of having one for a long time. The so-called Road Map is a never-ending street and it used to hide behind when the Pm is asked when an election will be held.

 

If you are, as you seem to be, saying that the army does not have loyalty to one person, I believe you to be fundamentally wrong. Indeed, that is the essence of the problem. In my opinion.

[Odysseus123]

6 minutes ago, KiwiKiwi said:

 

If you are, as you seem to be, saying that the army does not have loyalty to one person, I believe you to be fundamentally wrong. Indeed, that is the essence of the problem. In my opinion.

Bang on.

 

Otherwise Thai politics would just be like the Mad Hatter's tea party-and it isn't.The opacity is there for a purpose.

[KiwiKiwi]

28 minutes ago, Oziex1 said:

The question is what cards does he have up his sleeve to trump the military and their backers.

Overwhelming public support may not be enough. 

Agree.

 

I'm probably more of a heavy blunt instrument than tthis guy, but if it were me, I would nail Prayuth with repeated attacks against his honesty.

 

Nepotism (brother, sister-in-law., excessive wealth, why did he refuse to explain his wealth. Tax records, pictures of houses and assets. I would have the dick crawling out of his skin. This is his major weakness, whereas he thinks it is his major strength, the membership card to the amart. Feet to the fire, but it has to be repeated strikes, he has to have at least some of the media on his side (forget BP and Nation, they're all done when this government falls).

 

Wallahs like Prayuth rely on the perception of power for impunity. Put him on the defensive, Attack Prawit for his junkets, his watches and his health. Nail him to the wall.

 

Phew, time for a cuppa.

[KiwiKiwi]

1 hour ago, cliveshep said:

I totally agree with you on the draconian punishment to break the cycle of national instability these coups seem to bring. But it does seem from reading about that IT hunter man's case that whoever wants to overhaul the system would have a massive job on his hands and probably little support from the Thai equivalent of the British Civil Service and probably active obstruction. "Rich Elite" here seem to win out every time because bribery is a way of life? No one is prepared to tackle them head-on from what I can gather.

 

Like someone said earlier - a dawn raid to "find guns in your home" and it's goodbye for 20 years.

 

 

You pose a good question, to which my response, though it would create short term chaos and a run on the banks, would be. Sack all heads of ministries and all judges in the 2 top courts without compensation or pension. ALL OF THEM.

 

You wanna play? We played. Enjoy your penniless retirement. Oh, and by the way, the government now owns your house so kindly vacate by next week.

[BobBKK]

Youth is the real hope for Thailand. I worry for FFP but wish them well. 

 

Can't we have a Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction event? 

[Anak Nakal]

Will he be here for six months?

No one knows.

 

[JAG]

3 hours ago, jayboy said:

Prediction:  If FFP gathers momentum the dinosaur element will start arguing Thanatorn is Thaksin lite, a proxy to sweep up the urban middle class while PTP takes care of the rural masses.

If they gather momentum, then Piyabutr Saengkanokkul, the Secretary General's views will suffice to crush them.

And crush them try will.

[MaxLee]

He'll never get a chance, 'cause there ain't gonna be any elections,...... sad, but true.....

[Eligius]

18 minutes ago, MaxLee said:

He'll never get a chance, 'cause there ain't gonna be any elections,...... sad, but true.....

I agree with you - not any genuine, free and fair elections.

[Baerboxer]

2 hours ago, KiwiKiwi said:

Agree.

 

I'm probably more of a heavy blunt instrument than tthis guy, but if it were me, I would nail Prayuth with repeated attacks against his honesty.

 

Nepotism (brother, sister-in-law., excessive wealth, why did he refuse to explain his wealth. Tax records, pictures of houses and assets. I would have the dick crawling out of his skin. This is his major weakness, whereas he thinks it is his major strength, the membership card to the amart. Feet to the fire, but it has to be repeated strikes, he has to have at least some of the media on his side (forget BP and Nation, they're all done when this government falls).

 

Wallahs like Prayuth rely on the perception of power for impunity. Put him on the defensive, Attack Prawit for his junkets, his watches and his health. Nail him to the wall.

 

Phew, time for a cuppa.

 

They've been trying that with a certain other gentleman over some very very expensive watches! And any attack as you suggest would go the same way - nowhere fast!

 

That perception of power and impunity here is more real than the context we're used to in our home countries.

 

Several scandals have already been squashed which would have brought down governments in many Western countries. 

 

One of the problems is any accusers are likely just as bad if not worse! Let's hope the new kids on the block are indeed different.

[KiwiKiwi]

2 hours ago, Anak Nakal said:

Will he be here for six months?

No one knows.

 

 

Judging by events this week and searching for divining signs, I doubt he''l be here in six weeks. If there is a God.

 

[Baerboxer]

3 hours ago, jayboy said:

It would be hard to find any politician has not been influenced by Thaksin.Even the Junta copies many of his policies wholesale.He - for all his faults - was the first Thai modern politician who campaigned for all the people (the majority) previously ignored and despised.

 

Still a photograph can be damaging if it sums up an essential truth, for example the notorious one of Abhisit embracing Suthep.

 

On the other hand even the crazies would have a challenging job in maintaining their usual mantra if they suggested multi millionaire Thanathorn was "in the pay of Thaksin" (though I wouldn't put it past them)

 

 

 

Very active on here trying to spike comments aren't you!

 

Yes, a multi millionaire has no need to be corrupt - they have plenty of money! 

 

Oh err, that was said before wasn't it? And proved to be a very very wrong assessment.

 

But hopefully this young man and his associates will prove to be different. We'll see once he's able to announce all his policies. I sincerely hope they aren't forced into connections with the seedy old politicians, Democrat or Shin, and keep well away from the Military proxy parties.

 

Being leader of the family business isn't always an indication of ability to run a country - ask most Americans! Good luck to him and his fellow co-founders - they'll need it.

 

 

[Enoon]

5 hours ago, cliveshep said:

What puzzles me is this, in my country the armed services, army, navy, air-force are required to swear loyalty to the Queen, so any coup would be regarded as a mutiny and the people doing it would automatically be charged as traitors and imprisoned for treason once the country went back to civilian rule.

 

Unless (I presume you are talking about UK) it was the Queen who gave the order for the coup to take place.

 

(Which is pretty much what Charles the First attempted).

 

The military would then be faced with the choice between following the orders of the Monarchy......or those of the Democratically elected government.

 

Fortunately the Queen (together with her advisors in the Privy Council) does what she is supposed to do.......she lives up to the principles of Constitutional Monarchy, takes no sides in politics and does not interfere.

 

It took us a long (bloody) time to get to that situation.

 

We had Civil Wars, beheaded Charles the First and threw his son out as part of the progress towards a Constitutional Monarchy.

 

And thence towards Democracy.

 

 

 

 

Edited May 28, 2018 by Enoon

[sjaak327]

5 hours ago, baboon said:

Never mind the Dems and PTP, these people have the potential to do some real damage to the junta and their proxy parties. I imagine they will have to be 'dealt with' somehow before any election.

I do not see how. First of all this party still needs to secure a mandate, one that is big enough to make a difference. And second of all, how would they possibly be able to amend, let alone abolish the 2017 constitution ? The drafters have made it impossible to amend it without explicit approval of the senate or in other words the NCPO. 

 

 

Make no mistake, I am in full agreement, that constitution needs to go, and apart from this party, both PTP and the democrats have said the same thing. I just don't see this happening within the framework of this constitution. If a viable loophole is found, the tanks will be back on the streets.

 

Yes Thailand will get elections next year, but these are inconsequential, the real power remains where it is now. 

 

 

[scorecard]

4 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Hopefully those parties like PTP and FFP who have made very strong statements on curbing the excesses of the military will win big and form the next elected government. Even the Dem Party may join in the coalition to put the military in their places. If they get enough support from powerful people and the general public, they can override the resistance of the senators to call for a referendum to re-write the charter and insert laws to break the coup cycle. Angry Thais can break the military dominance like in Malaysia where the incumbent party 48 years in power was brought down. The junta excesses in delaying election and corruption may just be the spark that anger many Thais including some elites. 

 

"Angry Thais can break the military dominance like in Malaysia where the incumbent party 48 years in powerwas brought down."

 

Hey el, the  recent anger in Malaysian, shown at the elections has no connection to 'military dominance' whatever. It's clearly all about corruption / massive corruption. As usual el, you try to twist the facts beyond anything plausible.

 

Now let's apply a strong anger element factor in Thailand (many players on the list, big money involved  and the names quite well known, some names known for multiple charges awaiting trial ) Perhaps a massive anger element in Thai elections would destroy your idol and  leeches el. 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 28, 2018 by scorecard

[jayboy]

5 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Very active on here trying to spike comments aren't you!

 

Yes, a multi millionaire has no need to be corrupt - they have plenty of money! 

 

Oh err, that was said before wasn't it? And proved to be a very very wrong assessment.

 

But hopefully this young man and his associates will prove to be different. We'll see once he's able to announce all his policies. I sincerely hope they aren't forced into connections with the seedy old politicians, Democrat or Shin, and keep well away from the Military proxy parties.

 

Being leader of the family business isn't always an indication of ability to run a country - ask most Americans! Good luck to him and his fellow co-founders - they'll need it.

 

 

Can you please explain what you mean by spiking comments.I'm genuinely mystified.

 

Of course a multimillionaire can be corrupt.My point was that those who invariably describe their critics as "Shin fans" or "in the pay of Thaksin" might hesitate in the case of Thanatorn.

 

Actually Thanatorn was a participant in the Suthep mob's street protests for a time so his political ideas are perhaps not so clear..But I understand holding more than one idea in the head at any one time is a challenge for some.

 

I don't see why running a large business shouldn't be a good preparation for politics.

 

 

[sjaak327]

1 minute ago, jayboy said:

Can you please explain what you mean by spiking comments.I'm genuinely mystified.

 

Of course a multimillionaire can be corrupt.My point was that those who invariably describe their critics as "Shin fans" or "in the pay of Thaksin" might hesitate in the case of Thanatorn.

 

Actually Thanatorn was a participant in the Suthep mob's street protests for a time so his political ideas are perhaps not so clear..But I understand holding more than one idea in the head at any one time is a challenge for some.

 

I don't see why running a large business shouldn't be a good preparation for politics.

 

 

He was ? 555 money enough, short on brains. He is now disqualified. Can't even see past Suthep. 

[jayboy]

14 minutes ago, scorecard said:

 

"Angry Thais can break the military dominance like in Malaysia where the incumbent party 48 years in powerwas brought down."

 

Hey el, the  recent anger in Malaysian, shown at the elections has no connection to 'military dominance' whatever. It's clearly all about corruption / massive corruption. As usual el, you try to twist the facts beyond anything plausible.

 

Now let's apply a strong anger element factor in Thailand (many players on the list, big money involved  and the names quite well known, some names known for multiple charges awaiting trial ) Perhaps a massive anger element in Thai elections would destroy your idol and  leeches el. 

 

 

 

 

Have you read any of the multiple articles pointing out how events in Malaysia have given the Thai Junta the collywobbles? Thought not.

 

Actually one doesn't need to do much research to understand the significance of a popular electoral revolt against an entrenched elite.The reasons are self evident as this extract from "The East Asia Forum" make clear.

 

"The solution to Thailand’s political problems is clear enough. The voters must choose their leaders in a free and fair election, and the winning party must have its mandate to govern respected. In the event that a government exceeds fair legal limits, independent institutions and civil society must hold it to account. Immediate resort to turning out a democratically-elected government and to declaring that the voters got it wrong only sustains the grassroots anger that gave rise to populism in the first place.

It was disregard for this reality on the part of Thaksin’s civil society opponents and the opposition Democratic Party that got Thailand into the political mess it is in today, and it is far from certain that Prayuth’s junta can cleanly lead Thailand out of it. Having appeased the Thai public and the international community with the promise of elections, the junta has only encouraged impatience with the status quo. It will face a backlash, even from anti-Thaksin civil society and political parties, if that promise isn’t kept. If the heated and often violent street politics of years past makes a reappearance, then the junta has merely defeated the whole purpose of its own political intervention and has set Thailand’s political development back even further."

 

 

 

[baboon]

18 minutes ago, sjaak327 said:

I do not see how. First of all this party still needs to secure a mandate, one that is big enough to make a difference. And second of all, how would they possibly be able to amend, let alone abolish the 2017 constitution ? The drafters have made it impossible to amend it without explicit approval of the senate or in other words the NCPO. 

 

 

Make no mistake, I am in full agreement, that constitution needs to go, and apart from this party, both PTP and the democrats have said the same thing. I just don't see this happening within the framework of this constitution. If a viable loophole is found, the tanks will be back on the streets.

 

Yes Thailand will get elections next year, but these are inconsequential, the real power remains where it is now. 

 

 

Well they can argue that the constitution was written by an illegal government AND imposed under duress, so therefore illegal itself. Yes there was a referendum but the conditions set... 'sham' doesn't remotely begin to cover it.

[Samui Bodoh]

29 minutes ago, sjaak327 said:

I do not see how. First of all this party still needs to secure a mandate, one that is big enough to make a difference. And second of all, how would they possibly be able to amend, let alone abolish the 2017 constitution ? The drafters have made it impossible to amend it without explicit approval of the senate or in other words the NCPO. 

 

 

Make no mistake, I am in full agreement, that constitution needs to go, and apart from this party, both PTP and the democrats have said the same thing. I just don't see this happening within the framework of this constitution. If a viable loophole is found, the tanks will be back on the streets.

 

Yes Thailand will get elections next year, but these are inconsequential, the real power remains where it is now. 

 

 

Yes, for anything to occur, they would have to secure a mandate. That said, it is unlikely that any single party can secure a mandate, but a coalition of the FFP, PTP, perhaps the Dems and an assortment of some of the other small parties would be quite a force to be reckoned with.

 

How do they abolish the 2017 constitution? Politics is the art of the possible. Respectfully (and I mean that; I like your posts), you are thinking like a law-abiding individual, but at the end of the day, politicians tend to make law, not always follow it. If there is an overwhelming majority in favour of altering the constitution, the constitution will be altered. Think about it, was the previous constitution altered according to the law? Nope. It was tossed out by the Junta. It sounds strange to Western ears, but Asian constitutions are only valid until they are not (students of Indonesian politics might remember the term of President Wahid (spelling) in 2001-2002(?); he was bonkers and not much of a president, so they just decided 'not to notice' the constitution and tossed him out).

 

If there is an overwhelming electoral mandate for change in Thailand come the next election, the constitution WILL change. If it is close, that is trickier ground...

 

 

 

Edited May 28, 2018 by Samui Bodoh
Lack of coffee

[Siripon]

To change the constitution requires more than half the members of both houses, and in the third reading must include the votes of at least 10% of MPs from every party, votes from every party with more than ten MPs, and at least 10% of votes from all parties with fewer than ten MPs..

[sjaak327]

19 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Yes, for anything to occur, they would have to secure a mandate. That said, it is unlikely that any single party can secure a mandate, but a coalition of the FFP, PTP, perhaps the Dems and an assortment of some of the other small parties would be quite a force to be reckoned with.

 

How do they abolish the 2017 constitution? Politics is the art of the possible. Respectfully (and I mean that; I like your posts), you are thinking like a law-abiding individual, but at the end of the day, politicians tend to make law, not always follow it. If there is an overwhelming majority in favour of altering the constitution, the constitution will be altered. Think about it, was the previous constitution altered according to the law? Nope. It was tossed out by the Junta. It sounds strange to Western ears, but Asian constitutions are only valid until they are not (students of Indonesian politics might remember the term of President Wahid (spelling) in 2001-2002(?); he was bonkers and not much of a president, so they just decided 'not to notice' the constitution and tossed him out).

 

If there is an overwhelming electoral mandate for change in Thailand come the next election, the constitution WILL change. If it is close, that is trickier ground...

 

 

 

You are forgetting a tiny little detail, the army was able to tear down the 2007 constitution by the thread of their weapons. Any government will be heavily curtailed by the NCPO and by the framework of this constitution and the 20 year roadmap, non compliance will give the NCPO appointed senate the right to send the government packing. 

 

And you bet your ass that it will happen, these people, starting with Suthep have invested too much to just stand by and see their powerbase being eroded. 

 

Yes a future government might be allowed to amend the constitution here or there, rest assured that the provisions dealing with their powerbase, cannot be amended.

 

Edited May 28, 2018 by sjaak327

[chainarong]

How many start with grand intentions then get railroaded in another direction, mainly the populist direction or being Thailand even another Thaskin, like a  race horse looking for a prospective buyer, I'd place it under Interesting prospects. 

[Fish Head Soup]

6 hours ago, cliveshep said:

What puzzles me is this, in my country the armed services, army, navy, air-force are required to swear loyalty to the Queen, so any coup would be regarded as a mutiny and the people doing it would automatically be charged as traitors and imprisoned for treason once the country went back to civilian rule. I believe the USA is the same.  Other countries are even more ruthless, Turkey was in the news a while back for ruthlessly hunting down those who tried a coup, previously Egypt was unforgiving of a previous government too.

A coup is only illegal if it fails. If successful then it gains royal endorsement as happened in may of 2014.

[Redline]

I hope the young people rise to the occasion