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Constitutional Court removes another hurdle to next election


webfact

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5 hours ago, YetAnother said:

says who ? opposition to the current rulers is still not strong enough; those in the upper echelons of arrogance can still do whatever they want

This is so true but...if the junta do delay the election further their credibility (if they have any) will drop again. This time they'll have to conjure something for another delay and my guess is, and it is just a guess, it'll have something to do with other parties wanting to 'edit' them out of the constitution. 

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4 hours ago, Darcula said:

A brief history lesson:

 

28 Jun 2014 - Prayuth pledges elections by Oct 2015

09 Feb 2015 - Prayuth pledges elections by Feb 2016

09 Aug 2016 - Prayuth pledges elections by Nov 2017

10 Oct 2017 - Prayuth pledges elections by Nov 2018

27 Feb 2018 - Prayuth pledges elections by Feb 2019

 

Expect another announcement around August.

Elections ‘next year’ - sounds like the mad hatter’s tea party where there will be ‘jam tomorrow’

 

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The junta has been pretty open about the fact that they are rigging the system in their favor so that they will remain in power anyway, even if there is a vote. Seems that's the real problem not that there haven't been any promised elections. Doesn't seem to matter anyway.

Edited by Shaunduhpostman
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There are some excellent posts here! I am still leaning towards elections next year, but I have to admit I am also pausing for thought...

 

To me, I simply do not see a better time in the future for the Junta to have an election; their best bet is to have it sooner, before the parties are organized and funded, before more students/people take to the streets, while the economy seems to be going well (enough) and at the end of a four year period, rather than later. Further, when one looks at the timing of a few Junta initiatives, they seem to be timed for next spring; the Thai Niyom will be handing out cash, the EEC will (if the Junta are lucky) be announcing new foreign companies investing after new foreign companies investing, and if they are fortunate, the price of rice and rubber will rise a bit. Overall, there seems to be a 'created momentum' for early next year.

 

If they decide not to go, they will not get the benefit of daily announcements of Thai Niyom Cash, the announcements of companies coming to the EEC, and who knows where commodities will be? Further, I think it is more likely, not less, that students will come out in greater numbers, followed by Civil Society groups, egged on by the political class, and finally the general populace; it has occurred before and I can't think of a reason that it won't happen again.

 

Perhaps the Junta feel that they don't actually need an election? I think that they are mistaken in that, but their perspective might be different than mine.

 

It, to me, all comes down to legitimacy. Currently there is some latent legitimacy that the Junta has, but as we arrive at the end of a four year term, that legitimacy is fading and will continue to fade. Were the Junta to hang on without some kind of renewed mandate, I think that there will be protests, there will be a negative economic effect (bad, authoritarian governments don't attract the best investors), and there will be a general 'wet-blanket' effect on the country which will drag everything down a bit; this, in an oversimplification, is what happened to Burma. And, they have to know that.

 

Or perhaps the drunken power of running the government has gone to their heads and they simply do not realize the damage that they are doing?

 

In my view, it is elections that are somewhat free and fair, a smothering wet-blanket and decline, or some short, sharp and likely violent uprising of some kind which could go either way. The only positive scenario there is the elections.

 

Hmm... if I can see this, can they? And, if not, what do they see?

 

Questions, questions...

 

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1 hour ago, lubfishin said:

What My Thai wife thinks.

 

My Thai wife who is more educated than most with a master's degree and hold an executive-level position in her company could not care at all who is in charge. She couldn't care if we have a democracy or a dictatorship. All she cares about is is the economy doing well and her ability to have a good life. I tried to debate with her regarding politics she just simply is not interested and tells me most Thai people really don't care as long as they have money in their pocket to spend. 

 

I asked her her about people who are protesting and resisting the junta she said mainly they are students they have a lot of time on their hands. 

 

I believe she represents the majority of Thai they just don't care. Or they are just used to this cycle That Never Ends.

The question I would ask is 'Don't care' or 'Have simply given up'?

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7 hours ago, webfact said:

The court, however, voted unanimously that the bill was in line with the Constitution. The verdict means no amendments will be required and the road map to the election is unlikely to be delayed further. 

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaahahahahah!!!

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24 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

There are some excellent posts here! I am still leaning towards elections next year, but I have to admit I am also pausing for thought...

 

To me, I simply do not see a better time in the future for the Junta to have an election; their best bet is to have it sooner, before the parties are organized and funded, before more students/people take to the streets, while the economy seems to be going well (enough) and at the end of a four year period, rather than later. Further, when one looks at the timing of a few Junta initiatives, they seem to be timed for next spring; the Thai Niyom will be handing out cash, the EEC will (if the Junta are lucky) be announcing new foreign companies investing after new foreign companies investing, and if they are fortunate, the price of rice and rubber will rise a bit. Overall, there seems to be a 'created momentum' for early next year.

 

If they decide not to go, they will not get the benefit of daily announcements of Thai Niyom Cash, the announcements of companies coming to the EEC, and who knows where commodities will be? Further, I think it is more likely, not less, that students will come out in greater numbers, followed by Civil Society groups, egged on by the political class, and finally the general populace; it has occurred before and I can't think of a reason that it won't happen again.

 

Perhaps the Junta feel that they don't actually need an election? I think that they are mistaken in that, but their perspective might be different than mine.

 

It, to me, all comes down to legitimacy. Currently there is some latent legitimacy that the Junta has, but as we arrive at the end of a four year term, that legitimacy is fading and will continue to fade. Were the Junta to hang on without some kind of renewed mandate, I think that there will be protests, there will be a negative economic effect (bad, authoritarian governments don't attract the best investors), and there will be a general 'wet-blanket' effect on the country which will drag everything down a bit; this, in an oversimplification, is what happened to Burma. And, they have to know that.

 

Or perhaps the drunken power of running the government has gone to their heads and they simply do not realize the damage that they are doing?

 

In my view, it is elections that are somewhat free and fair, a smothering wet-blanket and decline, or some short, sharp and likely violent uprising of some kind which could go either way. The only positive scenario there is the elections.

 

Hmm... if I can see this, can they? And, if not, what do they see?

 

Questions, questions...

 

They must certainly be in a dilemma: Will the public stand for more delays? On the other hand, they are now about as welcome as a fart in an astronaut suit and will their ratings pick up? Can't afford to delay any longer and can't afford to risk going for it. How my heart bleeds for them...

Edited by baboon
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6 hours ago, webfact said:

the court said the Constitution actually allowed such a limitation unless the voters provided justifiable reason for why they had not voted.

The Thai Constitutional Court (CC) has had a dubious track record of decisions that allegedly are compliant with the constitution(s). Feel free to cite CC rulings that voided military junta/coup-led government directives, laws and regulations. I believe that there are none.

 

The qualifications of its judges have been politicized by minority authoritarian regimes who abolish constitutions and themselves rewrite replacement constitutions, and create conflict of interest with judge selection boards who make judge appointments. Constitutional Court judges are not career officers similar to those in the Court of Justice or the Administrative Court. Court appointments are not subjected to scrutiny by representatives of the electorate, ie., through the ballot box.1

The Thai Constitutional Court historically has not effectively served as an independent democratic institution as a check and balance against authoritarian regime abuses.That may explain why the Constitutional Court judges neither resign nor replaced following a military coup that abolishes the standing constitution. They just move on to the next constitution - job security?

 

Chapter VII "National Assembly," Part 2 "The House of Representatives," Section 98 of the 2017 Constitution specifies eighteen prohibitions that deprives a person the right to be a candidate in an election of members of the House of Representatives. I find the only relevant cite to the current issue decided by the CC to be (4):

  • being a person under the prohibitions from exercising his or her right to vote under section 96 (1), (2) or (4). (my underlined emphasis)

Under Section 96:

  • (1)  being a Buddhist monk, Buddhist novice, ascetic or priest;
  • (2)  being under revocation of the right to vote, whether or not such case is final (my underlined emphasis);
  • (4)  being of unsound mind or of mental infirmity.

So how does the CC conclude that without a constitutional amendment to the 2017 Constitution that a provision banning people who don’t exercise their right to vote from holding political office? By a literal reading of the constitution it seems to me that a person who is not legally prevented to vote cannot be banned from the electoral process for the House of Representatives. Such specific banning provision should require an amendment. I believe that the CC has created its own, albeit unwritten, prohibition.

 

1"Thailand: An Abuse of Judicial Review," by Khemthong Tonsakulrungruang in Judicial Review of Elections in Asia (2016).

 

 

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5 hours ago, hansnl said:

"As much as I hate to admit it, the junta has some supporters".

I do think the number of supporters, vocal and silent, would surprise you.

 

They surely have. Usually the ones with about 20 million Baht in the bank and run businesses with foreign workers paying them 200 Baht per day and paying no tax

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55 minutes ago, wvavin said:

I don't see any difference whether it is held this year, next year or never. This country is still managed by a bunch of greedy clowns!

In civilized countries like Australia Britain the US you can change the government but you don't change the boys in the back rooms who actually make the decisions. Be the same here

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1 hour ago, Jimbo in Thailand said:

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaahahahahah!!!

With puppets, you can pull the strings and the puppet will do exactly what you want. Same situation here. Junta say to judges "Jump" The judges reply "How high Sir"

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7 minutes ago, Happyman58 said:

With puppets, you can pull the strings and the puppet will do exactly what you want. Same situation here. Junta say to judges "Jump" The judges reply "How high Sir"

 

There's someone controlling the puppets but I'm not so sure its the junta ! If you look real close in photos of them, you can see the strings controlling them too ?

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37 minutes ago, KiwiKiwi said:

I suspect it's a matter of agendas, your agenda, and mine, is not theirs. I'll explain my view...

 

This government (if I can use the term very loosely in their case), came to power illegally. Normallty when there is a coup government, the warrant from on high (duly signed) is promionently displayed as an amulet might be. Not this time, no sign. And there is a reason for that, no sign. So the whole 4-year enterprise has been unathorised by the single person who has (had to) approve all previous coups d'etat to give them legitimacy, because the coup was treason and contra-constitution. No sign.

 

Thailand has been duped into thinking the coup was authorised by... It was not, and that must be obvious to anyone with enough brain cells to slosh together. No sign. So who was sponsoring it? No sign. A certain nonogenarian ex-General who has lived all his life at the expense of the same taxpayers he has seized control from on many occasions. That must be worthy of a 112 charge and the rest of his  life in prision. No sign.

 

Thailand has been conned by the amartya,  and (with some exceptions), it's worked. Thais have been blagged. The sole reason was to roll back the clock to a time when the Constitutional whatsit was not a Constitutional wotsit and the ascent of a Thaksin was impossible and unthinkable - this much is now surely clear and the debates about possible agendas which preceded the end of 3*3 ought to have ended in any population with an average IQ of more than 90. It hasn't ended and worse still, many foreigners have bought into the whole fiction that has been foisted on the Thai public. Why they have been vulnerable to this confidence trick is anyone's guess, but that's how it seems to be. Perhaps low IQ is infectious... no sign.

 

Prayuth is in trouble but not from a threat of getting a kicking from the electorate - getting one or not getting one won't make any difference since their whole presence is illegal and a charade anyway. No, he's in trouble because the whole wet dream of finessing an election win by the whole constitution shell game and then making it impossible for any party to win being accepted by the voting public and therefore apparently transforming an illegitimate government into a legitimate government such that the community of stupid foreigners inbside and outdsie of Thailand might accept it, is quickly vanishing.

 

The appearance of legitimacy is important to the landed gentry, and I don't believe they will accept Prayuth with all of his many failings for very much longer. He;s a dumbass for taking the job, and that's exactly why he was put up to it - because he's an arrogant fool and thinks he's Superman.

 

The way this will happen is he will be called for a meeting with an unarguable authority, and told to sod off or be ousted. Whether or not he will resign on grounds of ill-health caused by the stress of devoting his life to the Thai people is moot, but I suspect that will be it, after which Sitabutr of Anupong will take over, and Mr Piggy will be quietly put out to pasture where he can die unlamented of a heart attack as befits.

 

And imho, it (or a variation on the general theme), is happening as we speak.

 

Interesting times.

Magnificent piece. Of course the authorization was not there. It physically could not have been.

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What my Thai ex thinks too...

I think that the Junta has more support than people here credit. I had a recent discussion with my ex who is also well educated, not from the north and she is a strong junta supporter who won't have a bad word said against them. She sees investment in infrastructure and a stable country. Her view is that democracy will return when the 'right' result will occur. Yes, i tried arguing that surely that is not democracy but she's not interested in argument, she doesn't want Thaksin's party back in power, full stop. If you sit back and consider this view carefully and that it is more widespread then they aren't as politically weak as people think.

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2 minutes ago, Megasin1 said:

What my Thai ex thinks too...

I think that the Junta has more support than people here credit. I had a recent discussion with my ex who is also well educated, not from the north and she is a strong junta supporter who won't have a bad word said against them. She sees investment in infrastructure and a stable country. Her view is that democracy will return when the 'right' result will occur. Yes, i tried arguing that surely that is not democracy but she's not interested in argument, she doesn't want Thaksin's party back in power, full stop. If you sit back and consider this view carefully and that it is more widespread then they aren't as politically weak as people think.

So in other words, 'As long as I am fine with it, everyone else can sod off.' How self-centred!

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9 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

I am coming around to the idea that the election will actually occur early next year, if not precisely in February.

 

Why?

 

The Junta is running out of legislative reasons to delay it further. They claimed that they took over to end 'chaos' and return Thailand to a smoothly running government; it would be the height of hypocrisy to state that was the reason for the coup then not follow through. Yes, they have been hypocrites before (and will be again), but there are limits...

 

Various Junta initiatives are coming to fruition or will be around early next year; the prime example being the Thai Niyom. Consider the timing as the military is currently going around holding meetings and setting up political networks which they hope will support them. Then, allowing for a bit of time for administration, the funds should start flowing late this year/early next year, coincidentally just before an election.

 

I am happy to be corrected, but I seem to recall many of the decisions regarding promotions and allocation of posts for the military occur during the latter part of the year; I am certain the Junta would want a last crack at putting their supporters in place before going to the polls.

 

Government spending is boosting the economy at the moment, and if there is a political push over the next few months, much more can get out to 'super-charge' the economy in order for the Junta to claim success of their economic policies. It would also allow for funds to go to their supporters and bribe-able politicos in the various provinces.

 

As much as I hate to admit it, the Junta does have some supporters. That said, I think it very unlikely that the Junta will be able to actually increase its support; accepting that support won't go up, it is logical to go to the polls sooner rather than later as delay will likely mean less enthusiasm and less support the longer they stay in government.

 

The opposition parties are still in the early stages of getting organized and are crippled to an extent due to the administrative requirements forced on them by the Junta. Whether or not the ban on politics is lifted or not, it is logical to assume that the parties ARE organizing; for the Junta it is better to go to the polls before that is an effective action.

 

Finally, the Thai people expect it. Yes, the Junta has delayed the polls before, but they are at the end of what would be a normal mandate and it is clear that the people are getting a bit pissed at the delay. Voting has become a part of Thai culture, and it is clear that there is a growing trend towards action; it usually starts with the students (we have seen it already), the parties will jump in, and soon the population will follow. I don't believe that the Junta can delay much longer.

 

Some of the questions on my mind are;

  • Will the Junta try to ban parties, especially the PTP? If so, when?
  • Will the parties unite unofficially into pro/anti junta camps? Or try to go it alone?
  • What administrative hurdles will the Junta try to use to hurt the parties?
  • Will the parties start loudly criticizing the process in order to raise questions about legitimacy?
  • The election will not be 'free and fair', but how un-free and un-fair?
  • Will the Thai people's wishes be reflected in the outcome? And, if yes, will the Junta respect that?

I could go on, but...

 

Thoughts?

You have already moved the polls from February to early 2019. After that you say the military will want to be around for the next shuffle which moves it again to late 2019. 

If you are not working for them, then you should be. 

We've been hearing those same phrases for 4 years. 

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1 hour ago, baboon said:

Magnificent piece. Of course the authorization was not there. It physically could not have been.

Thank you kind sir, coming from you, that is a compliment indeed. And no, it could not have been. Hence the nonagenarian ought to be in very deep doodoo indeed because that is who the architect was.

Edited by KiwiKiwi
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4 hours ago, Megasin1 said:

What my Thai ex thinks too...

I think that the Junta has more support than people here credit. I had a recent discussion with my ex who is also well educated, not from the north and she is a strong junta supporter who won't have a bad word said against them. She sees investment in infrastructure and a stable country. Her view is that democracy will return when the 'right' result will occur. Yes, i tried arguing that surely that is not democracy but she's not interested in argument, she doesn't want Thaksin's party back in power, full stop. If you sit back and consider this view carefully and that it is more widespread then they aren't as politically weak as people think.

 

4 hours ago, baboon said:

So in other words, 'As long as I am fine with it, everyone else can sod off.' How self-centred!

 

4 hours ago, Megasin1 said:

Isn't that 'Thainess' ?

The person who owns my rental is the same. Works in a government dept., has a degree and position and as long as they can continue in the lifestyle  they've become accustomed to, all is fine. The type of government in power is irrelevant. As expats, we'd have a lot of argument with that attitude not least the their 'position' could disappear at any moment. It is pointless to argue with them and examples of what happens elsewhere in the world only gets the response that Thai's aren't concerned about all that. (Having said that, whenever I ask for this or that to be repaired, electrical, plumbing etc. it is done promptly...but then again it probably has something to do with me accepting to pay more than a Thai family would and that I always pay on time, Ha!)

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45 minutes ago, brucec64 said:

Your wife sounds like pretty much everything that is wrong with thailand right now. She epitomises the Bangkok elite who have nothing but contempt for the provincial peasants and yearn for a return of the sakdina system.

Sent from my SM-N950U1 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

I see this support for the military junta coming from the 'educated' classes all the time. It is absolutely sickening. Thais who have studied abroad in the West, had the benefits which such liberal education bestows, and yet who turn round and spurn all those noble human values that Western intellectual culture prizes so highly.

 

In fact, these selfish 'educated' types are even going against the teachings of the Buddha (which they nominally claim to hold allegiance to), since the Buddha taught universal kindliness (not snobbery and looking down upon the poor) and he taught people NOT blindly to follow something just because it is the tradition or what has been told to them by their teachers.

 

People with no brains like Thai military leaders (who don't even know anything about anything - not even genuine battles) is one thing; but Thais who have had all the benefits of full education and then turn round and boot their fellow, poorer Thais in the groin are the worst of the worst.

 

I hope that Karma will one day teach them a big, big lesson ....

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Eligius said:

I see this support for the military junta coming from the 'educated' classes all the time. It is absolutely sickening. Thais who have studied abroad in the West, had the benefits which such liberal education bestows, and yet who turn round and spurn all those noble human values that Western intellectual culture prizes so highly.

 

In fact, these selfish 'educated' types are even going against the teachings of the Buddha (which they nominally claim to hold allegiance to), since the Buddha taught universal kindliness (not snobbery and looking down upon the poor) and he taught people NOT blindly to follow something just because it is the tradition or what has been told to them by their teachers.

 

People with no brains like Thai military leaders (who don't even know anything about anything - not even genuine battles) is one thing; but Thais who have had all the benefits of full education and then turn round and boot their fellow, poorer Thais in the groin are the worst of the worst.

 

I hope that Karma will one day teach them a big, big lesson ....

 

 

 

That is indeed the problem with Thainess, The UK was the same during the Thatcher years, no such thing as society, only a series of individuals all after their own place at the trough. It's the ultimate  divide and conquer - exploit the baser instincts always, exploit the 'me me me' which is in everyone, even you and I, though I hope we have subjugated the crass and ultimately narcissistic impulses that are usually out first responses to all stimuli until we transcend and subjugate them. I do believe that there are more junta supporters than I expected, but I can tell you that in Isaan, that does not apply, and if the whole BKK middle class were to be washed away tomorrow, there would be few tears.

 

I came to Thailand in the hope of flushing the yuppie culture and what it descended into out of my system. Welcome to the human race, welcome to the human condition. The way to divide and conquer in the 21st century is to make everyone a self-centred icehole. As a consequence, Thailand is not only worthless in it's contribution to the development of people, I believe it's a bomb waiting for the fuse to be lit. All that is required is for someone to exploit the fact that poor people haven't yet polished their narcissism to the same extent that the middle classes have. And if that someone is a little bit corrupt - well, perhaps that's the price to be paid. Again.

 

Interesting times in Dodge City.

 

 

 

 

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Just now, greeneking said:

Can people who saw the talking to froggy picture and this one really go to the ballot box and say 'yes please?'

sick.jpg

Oh God, oh God.

It is too much for a decent, brain-endowed, moral human being to bear ... without vomiting all over the computer screen.

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