Election ‘11 months away’

[KiwiKiwi]

1 hour ago, Siripon said:

Who says there isn't going to be an election apart from some dedicated Thai Visa posters?

There are 2 conditionals here:

First, the bill is presented to the King for royal endorsement.He has 90 days to consider the document. His Majesty could return it any time within those 90 days.

Second, as mentioned the election must be held within 150 days after the bills come into effect, but as Supachai said, they are 90% ready. The EC could decide the election date earlier.

 

 

With respect, that's just naive. There will always be reasons not to have it - political parties to be prosecuted and banned, deaths in the family, conflict in the streets, and that's without getting creative.

 

Or would care to make a small wager?

 

 

[baboon]

30 minutes ago, quandow said:

"THE NEXT election will take place about 11 months from now, Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Kreangam said"

 

Do you think the Deputy PM  cleared that with the actual PM?

He is singing from the same hymnsheet as the junta chief, who has stopped saying 'Next February' and now saying 'Early 2019'.

[Eligius]

5 minutes ago, KiwiKiwi said:

 

With respect, that's just naive. There will always be reasons not to have it - political parties to be prosecuted and banned, deaths in the family, conflict in the streets, and that's without getting creative.

 

Or would care to make a small wager?

 

 

You might be interested to know, KiwiKiwi, that I have made a special kind of a wager with a Thai friend of mine who still believes there will be an election in February: I have promised to pay out 10,000 baht if the election does in fact go ahead  in February.

 

THAT is how confident I am that there will NOT be an 'election' in February!

 

(Mind you - pride comes before a fall - ha ha!).

[baboon]

4 minutes ago, KiwiKiwi said:

 

With respect, that's just naive. There will always be reasons not to have it - political parties to be prosecuted and banned, deaths in the family, conflict in the streets, and that's without getting creative.

 

Or would care to make a small wager?

 

 

I am afraid naive is the word. Take this line:

"Second, as mentioned the election must be held within 150 days after the bills come into effect, but as Supachai said, they are 90% ready."

There is no "must" about it. If they want to delay it further they will delay it further. Besides, they can remain at 90% ready indefinitely. 

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 8 times...

[baboon]

1 minute ago, Eligius said:

You might be interested to know, KiwiKiwi, that I have made a special kind of a wager with a Thai friend of mine who still believes there will be an election in February: I have promised to pay out 10,000 baht if the election does in fact go ahead  in February.

 

THAT is how confident I am that there will NOT be an 'election' in February!

 

(Mind you - pride comes before a fall - ha ha!).

Then I'll see you in February. It's your round - well, your mate's, actually...

[Eligius]

1 minute ago, baboon said:

I am afraid naive is the word. Take this line:

"Second, as mentioned the election must be held within 150 days after the bills come into effect, but as Supachai said, they are 90% ready."

There is no "must" about it. If they want to delay it further they will delay it further. Besides, they can remain at 90% ready indefinitely. 

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 8 times...

Also - and this is not a political point, just a constitutional point: the monarch has the power NOT to grant permission for an election on a given date ...

[Lupatria]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

THE NEXT election will take place about 11 months from now, Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Kreangam said

              

    

 

Edited June 1, 2018 by Lupatria

[KiwiKiwi]

11 minutes ago, Lupatria said:

      

 

Unless...

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, Siripon said:

Who says there isn't going to be an election apart from some dedicated Thai Visa posters?

There are 2 conditionals here:

First, the bill is presented to the King for royal endorsement.He has 90 days to consider the document. His Majesty could return it any time within those 90 days.

Second, as mentioned the election must be held within 150 days after the bills come into effect, but as Supachai said, they are 90% ready. The EC could decide the election date earlier.

 

Quoting the words of a famous buffoon "will see what happens". However should the process of the bill from royal endorsement to publishing in the royal gazette is completed and allowing 90 days after being gazetted, the junta is bound by the constitution to hold election within 150 days. That is a legal condition and the junta can't have it their way even giving an excuse of a funeral. Any unfortunate incident will just have to be handle by the next government.   

[Oziex1]

1 hour ago, stud858 said:

I want to see a Foreigner political party run in the election.  May it be possible if the foreigner has a Thai I.D. card and speaks fluent Thai? 

 

 

Why not? 

The platform could be "Ex pats for fairer treatment by bar girls". 

[Wilsonandson]

Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha on Tuesday said a general election he had promised to hold in November would take place “no later” than February 2019, the latest delay to anger critics of the government.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-politics/thai-pm-now-says-election-to-be-held-no-later-than-feb-2019-idUSKCN1GB0QS

[KiwiKiwi]

19 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Quoting the words of a famous buffoon "will see what happens". However should the process of the bill from royal endorsement to publishing in the royal gazette is completed and allowing 90 days after being gazetted, the junta is bound by the constitution to hold election within 150 days. That is a legal condition and the junta can't have it their way even giving an excuse of a funeral. Any unfortunate incident will just have to be handle by the next government.   

 

hmmm. Maybe.  Section 44?

 

Forgive me but whenever one of these clowns says the word 'about' I get a little itch on my neck... After all, the liar Prayuth said 'November this year' and then 'no later than February, and 11 months is March or April. 'About' could be anything...

 

I'm sure it's nothing but...

Edited June 1, 2018 by KiwiKiwi

[AGareth2]

1 hour ago, quandow said:

"THE NEXT election will take place about 11 months from now, Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Kreangam said"

 

Do you think the Deputy PM  cleared that with the actual PM?

no matter

the PM promised Trump it was this November

[Eligius]

6 minutes ago, KiwiKiwi said:

 

hmmm. Maybe.  Section 44?

I think we should remind ourselves when thinking in terms of the junta's 'being bound by the Constitution' (which Eric mentioned) that they have already breached that Constitution more than once. 

The junta are no respecters of Constitutions - they tear them up (or do other things with them - which I cannot comment on) as they (or others) see fit ...

 

Edited June 1, 2018 by Eligius

[Get Real]

1 hour ago, candide said:

Well, not a rigged election. ?

But??? It´s supposed to be easier when you already know the outcome!

[KiwiKiwi]

1 minute ago, Eligius said:

I think we should remind ourselves when thinking in terms of the junta's 'being bound by the Constitution' that they have already breached that Constitution more than once. 

The junta are no respecters of Constitutions - they tear them up (or do other things with them - which I cannot comment on) as they (or others) see fit ...

 

Yep, Constitutions are for the plebs, not us rulers...

[RichardColeman]

Must be 11 months on the 'Don't give a ****' calander !

[Eric Loh]

19 minutes ago, KiwiKiwi said:

 

hmmm. Maybe.  Section 44?

 

Forgive me but whenever one of these clowns says the word 'about' I get a little itch on my neck... After all, the liar Prayuth said 'November this year' and then 'no later than February, and 11 months is March or April. 'About' could be anything...

 

I'm sure it's nothing but...

I do understand what you and the others strong distrust of the junta promised and delayed roadmap. I just feel this time there are just too much downsides and risks for the junta to use their power discriminately to again delay election. True that article 44 does have enormous power to disrupt or suppress regardless of the legislative, executive or judiciary nature but not the constitution. Anyway, this is Thailand and as much as I am optimistic, I too acknowledge that the military holds the trump card for now and anything can happen.  

[CharlesSwann]

They need a bit more time to fix a loophole - making sure that the constitution cannot be changed by an elected government in future. They've probably just realised, given recent events, that they need to embed obstacles to that possibility in every government institution and process. That will take quite a bit of paperwork and rubber-stamping.

[Eligius]

1 minute ago, CharlesSwann said:

They need a bit more time to fix a loophole - making sure that the constitution cannot be changed by an elected government in future. They've probably just realised, given recent events, that they need to embed obstacles to that possibility in every government institution and process. That will take quite a bit of paperwork and rubber-stamping.

Yes, they have already - and probably will further in the future - put all sorts of obstacles in the way of a genuine democratic process and representation of the people - so that someone like Thanathorn, with his brave Future Forward Party, will scarcely stand a chance. He (and his party) will probably be ruled out of the running long before it all kicks off (whenever that might be). The only way people like Thanathorn (or other anti-junta parties) can make headway is if there is a groundswell of support - made visible on the streets - coming from hundreds of thousands of Thais - day after day after day, week after week after week. I fear that nothing less will unseat this junta.

[Srikcir]

29 minutes ago, KiwiKiwi said:

 

Yep, Constitutions are for the plebs, not us rulers...

What you refer to above is called a "dual polity" - the"good people" vs "the bad people."

You might be interested in a working paper (full title in link) "Authoritarian Constitution-Making in Thailand, 2015-16" by Michael H. Nelson, published by the Southeast Asia Research Centre.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/308164982_Authoritarian_Constitution-Making_in_Thailand_2015-16_Elite_aphichon_Capture_Turns_a_Dual_Polity_into_a_System_of_Elite_Rule_with_Elections_or_a_Thai-style_Authoritarianism

 

[chrisinth]

5 hours ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

Here we go... So the "other parties" will have 5 months in which to fully prepare and campaign for an election, as opposed to the Junta who started their campaign last year.

But the EC doesn't have to use the full 150 days, so technically, if all their ducks are in a row, they could hold an election after 3 months of lifting the ban !!!

 

What's wrong with all these other politicians ?? Can they not see, or possibly even feel, that they are blatantly being shafted ??

I still don't understand why they are referred to as the 'other parties'. They should be the 'only parties'. The military have done their job by conducting the coup; the time has long past that they should go back to their careers as soldiers and leave the running of the country to those groomed as politicians.

 

If they truly want what is best for this country. 

[Siripon]

Just now, KiwiKiwi said:

 

With respect, that's just naive. There will always be reasons not to have it - political parties to be prosecuted and banned, deaths in the family, conflict in the streets, and that's without getting creative.

 

Or would care to make a small wager?

 

 

I don't want to take your money KiwiKiwi, it would be cruel.

Reasons why the election couldn't be held- political parties banned -Future Forward , yes, that's possible, his support base is still small.

Pheua Thai- it's too obvious and would lead to street violence. I don't think Prayuth could survive doing that.

A death in the family -perhaps, we can't really go down that path.

Anyway, time will tell , and whatever will happen is certainly getting nearer!

[gandalf12]

6 hours ago, Odysseus123 said:

So...April-May,2019-anyone taking bets on that?

1000 to 1 against it happening then

[nikmar]

in the Bangkok Post, Yabba the hut's saying February. Do they know what each other's doing?

[KiwiKiwi]

4 hours ago, yellowboat said:

Other than the junta, can other parties legally campaign ?  A snap election or a contracted time for campaigning is going to favor the junta or other established parties.  The election will still be a joke. 

Most things these people do are a joke. Often in pretty poor taste.

 

Question: does anyone think these people really know what many foreigners think of them? I see no sign they understand that they are held up as a complete laughing stock, but they can't possibly be that thick can they? Oh... sorry.

[KiwiKiwi]

3 minutes ago, nikmar said:

in the Bangkok Post, Yabba the hut's saying February. Do they know what each other's doing?

 

Honestly, I doubt it. Why would this be any different from anything else?

[KiwiKiwi]

1 hour ago, Eric Loh said:

I do understand what you and the others strong distrust of the junta promised and delayed roadmap. I just feel this time there are just too much downsides and risks for the junta to use their power discriminately to again delay election. True that article 44 does have enormous power to disrupt or suppress regardless of the legislative, executive or judiciary nature but not the constitution. Anyway, this is Thailand and as much as I am optimistic, I too acknowledge that the military holds the trump card for now and anything can happen.  

 

I'd love to agree with you Eric, I really would, but every fibre of my being is shouting that you're looking at a Thai situation through a western brain. Madness lies down that path.

[Siripon]

Just now, KiwiKiwi said:

Most things these people do are a joke. Often in pretty poor taste.

 

Question: does anyone think these people really know what many foreigners think of them? I see no sign they understand that they are held up as a complete laughing stock, but they can't possibly be that thick can they? Oh... sorry.

Many foreigners can be summed up as a few posters on Thai Visa with a lot of time on their hands. I know several foreigners in Thailand who have no interest in Thai politics. And those outside almost certainly don't care.

Having said that, I hope the Amnesty campaign regarding the charges pressed against the protestors is successful and they can gather many signatures but I doubt the junta are shaking in their boots at fear of foreigners' impressions.

Isn't Prayuth off to Europe next week?

[SABloke]

5 hours ago, Eligius said:

This is a total farce.

 

And some people still can't see it. All those naive optimists who really, sincerely, trustingly believe that we are going to have an 'election' in February.

For Goodness' sake: see the writing on the wall.

 

THERE IS GOING TO BE ANOTHER DELAY!

 

THERE IS NOT GOING TO BE AN ELECTION NEXT FEBRUARY!!

 

"THERE IS GOING TO BE ANOTHER DELAY!

THERE IS NOT GOING TO BE AN ELECTION NEXT FEBRUARY!!"

 

That's what the DPM said - the delay's already happened (11 months from today is May 2019)