Despite stacked odds, election is essential

[webfact]

Despite stacked odds, election is essential

By The Nation

 

 

The junta is likely to hold on to power at the polls, but its opponents must seize every opportunity for change and progress
 

The recent emergence of a raft of political parties is sending a clear signal to the ruling military junta – the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) – and to society as a whole. It is that elections are essential if the country is to continue making progress.

 

Even among those who welcomed the Army’s intervention in politics four years ago and maintained faith in the generals for some time after have come to realise the necessity of an election as a genuine instrument for negotiating power.

 

Citizens who want a share of the power need to enter the race. Those who want the military out of politics know an election is the way to remove it. Elections hold the promise of peaceful political change. History has established that military coups cannot resolve political conflicts. The 2014 coup staged by Prayut Chan-o-cha was no exception. It has failed utterly to reconcile the opposing sides, heal the country or end corruption. The generals’ promises of reform have proved to be mere pretext for seizing control.

 

The downside of the coming election is that, if junta-allied parties win, it could give the generals a measure of legitimacy and the chance to perpetuate their rule. Political elements that supported the NCPO are now forming parties to contest the race in the hope of claiming enough parliamentary seats to keep Prayut in power.

 

The military government has put in place legal instruments to extend its rule. It has the armed forces protecting it and dissuading opposition. Public money is being spent on the very kind of populist programmes the generals once derided as a politician’s trick, a bribe for votes.

 

And it is now creating not one political party but many in a bid to ensure it receives a mandate to continue governing.

 

Prayut’s recent campaigning and the emergence of pro-junta parties have rendered the political spectrum clearer. In coming months and years we can expect to see fierce competition between the pro-junta groups and its opponents in the Shinawatra-red-shirt movement. And there will be opportunists ready to side with whoever has the upper hand.

 

All of them claim to be fighting for democracy and the people’s interests, but few people outside their membership rolls will truly benefit. The pro-junta groups refrain from setting out platforms or policies, content to pledge allegiance to the three pillars – nation, religion and monarchy.

 

Generally, the political equation hasn’t changed in four years. There are new parties offering alternatives, but it’s doubtful they’re strong enough to win at the polls. The present regime will see to that. It would be naïve to think the junta would heed calls for a free and fair election. Its need to win the election to gain legitimacy and remain in power is simply too great. But it is wise to call for close monitoring of Thailand’s political developments.

 

The government and its supporters would use any means necessary to win an election that has to come eventually, since further delays are impossible.

 

Heading towards it, the rules of the game are not particularly fair and the players are hardly equal. Plus, with the junta as a player in the game, there is no real regulator supervising the polling. Despite all of this, the election is still the best choice.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/opinion/30346998

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2018-06-05

[HiSoLowSoNoSo]

12 minutes ago, webfact said:

with the junta as a player in the game, there is no real regulator supervising the polling.

Like a fox guarding the henhouse.

[cornishcarlos]

38 minutes ago, webfact said:

Citizens who want a share of the power need to enter the race

 

Citizens who want a share of the power budget need to enter the race.. They are certainly doing that.. Suthep is lining up with his hand out ?

Edited June 4, 2018 by cornishcarlos

[YetAnother]

44 minutes ago, webfact said:

Despite all of this, the election is still the best choice.

while the content of the article is solid, this choice of wording is lacking; the election is the only choice, as the article promotes, but an Only choice is no choice at all; it is at once the best and worst 'choice' ; should have said 'inevitable' and left 'choice' to the eternal optimists

[Oziex1]

If the result of an election is to legitimise the generals power over the country then don't have it. 

[Samui Bodoh]

There is a great deal of truth in the idea that political change needs to come from an election; unfortunately, Thailand has already experienced what happens when political change isn't allowed to occur naturally (1992, 2006, 2009-2010, 2014 etc.) and it inevitably means the loss of life, injured citizens and damage to the social fabric. However, as the article correctly points out, there is great danger in participating in an election if it means that the Junta receives an undeserved 'mandate' that was achieved through cheating; in many ways that would be worse than no election at all.

 

Currently, I see the Junta cheating to such an extent that I believe that the parties need to consider whether or not to participate in the promised election. No one, myself included, ever believed that this would be a 'Free and Fair' election, but there is a calculus to be made; is it 'Free and Fair' enough to take part and have a chance to win? Or, is it rigged to a point where participation is, for all intents and purposes, merely an endorsement of continued Junta rule?

 

The parties need to begin speaking out in a louder voice questioning whether or not they are going to participate in the process and put the Junta on notice that their participation is not guaranteed; failure to do so in advance of a process means that you can't complain later. Further, I suspect that a unified voice on the part of the Forces of Goodness will make the Junta sit up and take notice; the Junta needs a mandate very badly as without one they are merely a pack of thugs who stole power. Finally, as a means to really stick the knife in and give it a twist, the pro-Democracy parties need to proclaim that the rules need to be at least as fair as when Thaksin/Yingluck won their mandates and that the Junta MUST meet that standard; I can't think of anything better that might goad the Junta into acting properly than a notion that they are "less" than either of their predecessors.

 

It is time for a more public discussion on Thailand's future and it needs to be led by the pro-Democracy parties. The equation is clear; is participation in an election worth doing at the moment or not? If yes, then some clarity needs to occur on exactly what the process and rules are. If not, then a loud proclamation that the Junta is illegitimate.

 

I am not Thai, so I will leave that calculation to the pro-Democracy parties. I will simply say that they need to make their position(s) clear sooner rather than later.

 

 

Edited June 4, 2018 by Samui Bodoh
Lack of coffee

[Thailand]

A stacked election, enough said.

[z42]

I fail to see what a farce election would achieve other than emboldening the very regime who orchestrated said election rigging. I see huge oublic demonstrations before anything resembling a real election is held

[Dave67]

The Junta are underestimating their unpopularity. I predict a landslide victory for non Junta related parties. Just like Malaysia UMNO lost so badly they couldn't manufacture a win which means the ex-Pm going to jail

[Lungstib]

Partaking in an election which is already rigged will be a mistake. No party should enter the race and the world will be left with a clear view of the extent to which the military has rigged the system. The referendum on the constitution stands as a lesson. The majority voted for it so it MUST stay. The next election is now electing a govt for the next 20 plus years! Beware.

[stephen tracy]

59 minutes ago, Dave67 said:

The Junta are underestimating their unpopularity. I predict a landslide victory for non Junta related parties. Just like Malaysia UMNO lost so badly they couldn't manufacture a win which means the ex-Pm going to jail

Prayuth may still command the loyalty of the armed forces, which he might seek to use if he faces going to jail. Anyone think he'd go that far?

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, stephen tracy said:

Prayuth may still command the loyalty of the armed forces, which he might seek to use if he faces going to jail. Anyone think he'd go that far?

Dave is talking Najib. That fat cat and his wife are certainly going to jail now that the new Malaysian government has successfully convinced the Agong to approve a non Muslim and a real sticker for rule of law as AG. Here in lalaland, no military men ever go to jail for all the transgressions and harm that they did to the country over the decades. How I wish but will never ever happen. That's why they totally disregard any law or constitution.

[candide]

They can rigg the election campaign as much as they can, if there is a widely held anti-Junta opinion, it will be shown in the poll results.

However, a key question remains: will the voting and counting occur without external observers, as was the case for the referendum? As the high number of candidates and the changing numbering will be quite confusing as well for ballot count rigging, we can expect a long delay before the results of elections are announced.?

[Eligius]

The article makes clear to me - although it does not spell it our or perhaps even think it - that expecting an ejection of the junta and its surrogates through the totally rigged 'election' which the junta are devising is all but impossible. The 'election' - when it eventually comes - will serve one purpose only: to keep the current power-holders in power. Otherwise it will not be held.

 

The Thai people will find themselves in a situation (actually, they are already in it) where following the fake rules set down by a fake government will get them nowhere.

 

With the deepest regret, I can only see one way for the Thais to take their country back. And it won't be pretty, if it occurs. 

 

It probably will not occur (seeing how most Thais are inured to authoritarianism and acquiesce in it through their unprincipled compliance and non-action) ...

 

Edited June 5, 2018 by Eligius

[seajae]

this is where the vote will show what the people of Thailand want, we know the junta has set things up but they do not control the public. The people will vote for who they want to win, once the figures are released everyone will be able to see the will of the people, I seriously doubt any one party will get a huge win, it will be a collection of parties that run the country, hopefully there will be enough decent members that are not simply there to enrich themselves as previous government members have done so that we see some good changes in the country but I seriously doubt it, getting noses in the trough seems to be what thai politics is all about

Edited June 5, 2018 by seajae

[Eligius]

1 minute ago, seajae said:

... once the figures are released everyone will be able to see the will of the people, ...

Do we really believe that this bunch - who will still control all the weapons, all the power, all the guns, right up to the point of declaring the election 'result' - are going to release the honest figures to the people, if those figures smash the junta?!

 

All the junta have ever done - literally on a weekly basis - is lie and lie and lie. There is no reason to think that they will change that habit of a lifetime at the moment which will spell out their own destruction.

 

The Thai people will not hear any true 'election result figures' from a bunch of all-controlling criminals - and to think otherwise, I am afraid, is being unduly optimistic ...

[millwall_fan]

We have been here before. There is all this debating and posturing by the chattering class and The Nation. But unless there is widespread manifest fraud in the elections, Puea Thai will win. This will surprise The Elite as usual because they have all forgotten to ask their maids and butlers and other servants how they will vote and there are millions more of them than there are in the Thonglor wine bar set. 

 

Things do not look too hopeful however as the NCPO is now trying to take action against Puea Thai for "holding a press conference where it criticised the NCPO's performance in administering the country." (This according The Nations rival English language organ). 

 

The merry-go-round continues....another coup within 5 years! 

 

[Eligius]

2 minutes ago, millwall_fan said:

 

 ...The merry-go-round continues....another coup within 5 years! 

 

They won't need another coup - because they are not going to relinquish their grip on power. Unless forced by the Thai people.

 

Which, in all probability, they will not be.

 

Edited June 5, 2018 by Eligius

[tigermoth]

4 hours ago, Dave67 said:

The Junta are underestimating their unpopularity. I predict a landslide victory for non Junta related parties. Just like Malaysia UMNO lost so badly they couldn't manufacture a win which means the ex-Pm going to jail

True. Almost all Thais I speak to regard the current prime minister as a 'bad man'. I think the Junta would not be surprised by this as can be seen by their electioneering over the last months. They must realise that almost all their current actions are only making their position worse. The military has no place in a democratic government and is contained in many countries constitutions which bars active military personnal from holding any form of political office.

[holy cow cm]

A very rich Thai woman told me the other day: Just wait until after the elections and he is a normal citizen. He will then knows what it is like to be normal. 

[Eligius]

27 minutes ago, holy cow cm said:

A very rich Thai woman told me the other day: Just wait until after the elections and he is a normal citizen. He will then knows what it is like to be normal. 

Unfortunately, he will never be just 'a normal citizen'. Firstly, he is very, very wealthy. Secondly - he will not simply hand over power; he will fight tooth and nail (by the most unjust means) to retain his ill-gotten position of control. Eventually, there will be small-scale uprisings of Thais against him and his mob.

 

Sadly, those brave Thais who rise against him and his gang will not receive active support from the overwhelming majority of their countrymen and countrywomen. So the junta (or its surrogate) will continue in power.

 

I just hope and pray that I am wrong!

 

 

[baboon]

6 hours ago, Thailand said:

A stacked election, enough said.

Mister, if you think it is stacked now (and it is), just wait for the campaign conditions. One misplaced word and it will be 10 years in prison. One word against the junta, 10 years. 'Use of impolite language', 10 years. 'Words which may cause problems', 10 years.

Meanwhile soldiers will be banging on doors and dispensing a little friendly advice as to who you had better vote for if you know what is good for you...

[holy cow cm]

14 minutes ago, Eligius said:

Unfortunately, he will never be just 'a normal citizen'. Firstly, he is very, very wealthy. Secondly - he will not simply hand over power; he will fight tooth and nail (by the most unjust means) to retain his ill-gotten position of control. Eventually, there will be small-scale uprisings of Thais against him and his mob.

 

Sadly, those brave Thais who rise against him and his gang will not receive active support from the overwhelming majority of their countrymen and countrywomen. So the junta (or its surrogate) will continue in power.

 

I just hope and pray that I am wrong!

 

 

I think what she meant is that he releases his military power to become PM, and this is where he will be fragile and vulnerable as he cannot use section 44. Her face was serious as I think some Thai rich elites (she is one) really want him to be subjected to what has been done to other PM's. He will always have his Elite status but they just might go after him if he decides to look sideways and think he is impenetrable. For me, I think he will be a hard cookie to bring down unless Thai's get really sick and tired and had enough. ofcourse when he is PM the watch issue and little p thing will be brought back up into his face, and if he doesn't handle it the right way by throwing little p under the bus, then he might just feel the wheels himself.

[GarryP]

Why does the writer infer that the opponents of the junta are in the Shinawatra-red-shirt movement? I think you will find that many of the current opponents of the junta did not support the Shinawatras. I think people realize that the regime did not do what it said it was going to do, the economy could have improved even more, and people could have freedom to gather and speak their minds. This government, with few exceptions, is a walking disaster.  

[Happyman58]

3 hours ago, seajae said:

this is where the vote will show what the people of Thailand want, we know the junta has set things up but they do not control the public. The people will vote for who they want to win, once the figures are released everyone will be able to see the will of the people, I seriously doubt any one party will get a huge win, it will be a collection of parties that run the country, hopefully there will be enough decent members that are not simply there to enrich themselves as previous government members have done so that we see some good changes in the country but I seriously doubt it, getting noses in the trough seems to be what thai politics is all about

Yep, The trough is big. I just wonder if Thai people ever get sick of being ripped off by these pollies? One question? would the Un send observers to watch the elections? 

[Anak Nakal]

Election not fair in Burma and Malaysia.

See what happen?

People angry!

[millwall_fan]

31 minutes ago, Anak Nakal said:

Election not fair in Burma and Malaysia.

See what happen?

People angry!

Election not fair in Thailand

See what happen?

People drink bottle of Lao Khao. Wait till next election!

[Eligius]

7 minutes ago, millwall_fan said:

Election not fair in Thailand

See what happen?

People drink bottle of Lao Khao. Wait till next election!

Exactly! There is - historically and culturally - a big difference between the Burmese (whom Anak Nakal referenced) and the Thais. Some folks have got fiery, masculine warrior blood coursing through their veins in the face of injustice.

 

Others have not.

[JAG]

1 hour ago, Eligius said:

 Some folks have got fiery, masculine warrior blood coursing through their veins in the face of injustice.

Golly, I thought for a moment you were talking about our glorious lean mean steely eyed leaders...

[Eligius]

1 minute ago, JAG said:

Golly, I thought for a moment you were talking about our glorious lean mean steely eyed leaders...

Of course I was, JAG: I was thinking of Prawit!