Ford May Stop Thailand Investment

[chuchok]

In post #10, 'singa-traz' posted an article about the continuing losses that Ford is making.

In the middle, it says: "Analysts said Ford's recently raised $23.5 billion gives it two years to turn itself around, barring a steep decline in the U.S. economy."

That is one very, very big 'barring'.

Ford are a dying duck.

america will never let ford die. but ford needs to reallize they should go back home where they belong. they are not wanted in foreign countries. america will protect ford because if not? who will be there to build the military machines to protect america?

By that rational,I suppose you want Toyota,Nissan and GMC to get rid of their plants in Thailand..

[AlexLah]

Hi all,

Ford is going to invest in 20-30 new dealershops in Thailand and in total about 120 new dealershops in Asia (including body and paint).

The Ford Focus that was recently introduced has been a big hit.

No worrie, Ford will invest in Asia.

For your info I have direct contacts with Ford management.

Kind regards,

Alex

[solo siam]

Hi all,

Ford is going to invest in 20-30 new dealershops in Thailand and in total about 120 new dealershops in Asia (including body and paint).

The Ford Focus that was recently introduced has been a big hit.

No worrie, Ford will invest in Asia.

For your info I have direct contacts with Ford management.

Kind regards,

Alex

I'm not sure that the problem is that people are unable to find a ford dealership, its just not a very exciting brand anymore.

[Paul MBMG]

a few obvious points here

1) what Ford and any other big company say to the press is designed for public consumption - it's basically PR - it doesn't neccessarily correlate to their private policy discussions or their meetings with the authorities (and nor would you expect it to - any company that conducted it s policy in full public view and with the consultation of the posters on TV.com wouldn't last very long)

2) behind the scenes the authorities are making it clear to investors that the environment is improving not worsening - as Thailand's most eminent commentator recently said all this regulatory stuff about the FBA and the 30% rule is a mere sideshow and will be consigned to history and forgotten pretty quickly. The political situation is teh real deal but not too many on here seem to realize that

3) Ford are aware of the risks of an impending US recession - in which case, like every other big company they need as much room for manoeuvre as possible with their future plans. I guess what I'm getting at is US economy slows before July, Ford's new investment plans get delayed/cancelled and they're able to cite Thailand's political situation as a factor - again, they wouldn't be doing their job properly if they had taken their eye of this particular ball.

4) Does anyone really think that the FDI scenario for US multi-nationals is any more friendly in China or India? Thailand needs to be aware of the increasing competituve threat from Vietnam. China can and will swallow any remaining competition from Thailand on its march to global dominance - want to blame anyone for that then the main culprit is Alan Greenspan.

[ChiangMaiAmerican]

Despite what has been said by some, business has taken notice of the new anti-foreign investment attitude. This time a Malaysian electronics component manufacturer has halted expansion plans in Thailand and is now looking at China or Vietnam. Not the giant Ford is but the company's investment would have meant more jobs for Thais. I wonder how many more small to medium size businesses that don't get written up in the press have made the same decision?

"Notion VTec's next step is to set up a plant in either China or Vietnam so as to get closer to its customers. “We intend to shelve our expansion plan in Thailand in view of the changes on the regulation on foreign shareholding. We are now looking at China, probably in Shanghai where most MNCs cluster or Hanoi in Vietnam.” "

"The group exports 95% of its products. Its major customers are mostly multinational companies like Hitachi, Western Digital and Canon Opto Sdn Bhd, Sony and JVC."

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...mp;sec=business

[johnnyk]

In post #10, 'singa-traz' posted an article about the continuing losses that Ford is making.

In the middle, it says: "Analysts said Ford's recently raised $23.5 billion gives it two years to turn itself around, barring a steep decline in the U.S. economy."

That is one very, very big 'barring'.

Ford are a dying duck.

america will never let ford die. but ford needs to reallize they should go back home where they belong. they are not wanted in foreign countries. america will protect ford because if not? who will be there to build the military machines to protect america?

By that rational,I suppose you want Toyota,Nissan and GMC to get rid of their plants in Thailand..

1) Ford has been in foreign countries for most of their existence, they are not innocents abroad.

2) Who will build military junk? Chrysler already builds most of it outside the aerospace sector.

[nick2k]

a few obvious points here

1) what Ford and any other big company say to the press is designed for public consumption - it's basically PR - it doesn't neccessarily correlate to their private policy discussions or their meetings with the authorities (and nor would you expect it to - any company that conducted it s policy in full public view and with the consultation of the posters on TV.com wouldn't last very long)

2) behind the scenes the authorities are making it clear to investors that the environment is improving not worsening - as Thailand's most eminent commentator recently said all this regulatory stuff about the FBA and the 30% rule is a mere sideshow and will be consigned to history and forgotten pretty quickly. The political situation is teh real deal but not too many on here seem to realize that

3) Ford are aware of the risks of an impending US recession - in which case, like every other big company they need as much room for manoeuvre as possible with their future plans. I guess what I'm getting at is US economy slows before July, Ford's new investment plans get delayed/cancelled and they're able to cite Thailand's political situation as a factor - again, they wouldn't be doing their job properly if they had taken their eye of this particular ball.

4) Does anyone really think that the FDI scenario for US multi-nationals is any more friendly in China or India? Thailand needs to be aware of the increasing competituve threat from Vietnam. China can and will swallow any remaining competition from Thailand on its march to global dominance - want to blame anyone for that then the main culprit is Alan Greenspan.

all the players including mr. greenspan, and president nixon had a role in the current status of global warming. if it wasn't for their policies, globalization wouldn't be as advanced as it is now.

when they opened the doors for the export of western technologies through the regular channels of machinery, and by allowing foreign citizens to study at our universities, they basically caused the effects of global warming to speed up - exponentially.

the gates and the buffets of this world have a real naive and idealistic picture of the world. they want to make the world a better place for all as they would want it to be. but in actuality, many don't see their vision, or even want it.

as it is, from what I have read, it only takes about a change of 10 degrees for another ice age to begin. and already scientists are saying we are at 3 degrees - and it happened pretty much overnight.

so much for globalization. so much for a better future for our children. maybe the biggest blunder in the history of mankind.

[solo siam]

nick2nick

the US still produces 60%+ of the worlds pollution, What you're basically saying is thats OK, but the rest of the world shouldn't be allowed to catch up and produce similar levels of pollution.

[Jai Dee]

Ford mulls small-car factory in Thailand

BANGKOK: Ford Motor Co. said last Friday that Thailand was among the countries being considered for a US$1 billion (US$1 = RM3.50) small-car factory it plans to set up in Asia.

“Ford is committed to building its business in the region, and we have been investigating the possible establishment of an additional manufacturing facility in Thailand,” Ford said in statement received last Friday.

The global carmaker said Thailand has the potential to become a base for small-car production while maintaining its position as a leading producer of pickup trucks, but the company is still talking to the Government about its investment plans and possible incentives.

It is important for any small-car investment to be included in the Thai Government’s final criteria for fuel-efficient cars and given any incentives and privileges, the statement said.

The planned factory would have a production capacity of 150,000 vehicles per year, of which 120,000 would be for export, it said.

A spokesman for the company contacted by telephone would not say which other countries were under consideration for the investment.

Source: Business Times - 5 February 2007

[Jai Dee]

Ford Motor Eyeing Thailand For New Eco-car Manufacturing Plant

US automotive giant Ford Motor has expressed interest in investing in a 1-billion-dollar factory to produce energy-efficient cars in Thailand, Industry Minister Kosit Panpiemras said Friday.

Kowit said Ford executives had informed him that Thailand was one of three countries they were appraising for the new investment, the Thai News Agency reported.

Thailand's Board of Investment is working on details to provide tax incentives for investments in an eco-car in the country, but details will not be completed until March, the minister said.

Thailand is already the world's second-largest assembler and manufacturer of 1-ton pickup trucks and is hoping to turn the kingdom into a hub for eco-car production in the future.

Source: DPA - 5 February 2007

[billaaa777]

all the players including mr. greenspan, and president nixon had a role in the current status of global warming. if it wasn't for their policies, globalization wouldn't be as advanced as it is now.

when they opened the doors for the export of western technologies through the regular channels of machinery, and by allowing foreign citizens to study at our universities, they basically caused the effects of global warming to speed up - exponentially.

the gates and the buffets of this world have a real naive and idealistic picture of the world. they want to make the world a better place for all as they would want it to be. but in actuality, many don't see their vision, or even want it.

as it is, from what I have read, it only takes about a change of 10 degrees for another ice age to begin. and already scientists are saying we are at 3 degrees - and it happened pretty much overnight.

so much for globalization. so much for a better future for our children. maybe the biggest blunder in the history of mankind.

You really need help Dude, I would suggest long term care in a psychiatric hospital followed by extensive use of drugs. In addition, you might want to combine the above with heavy drinking!!!

[blam]

Sorry this is so very long:

This is Ford doing business. This is Thailand doing xenophobics.

The so called "Finance Ministry of Thailand" cannot make trustworthy analysis of its own non-progressive International fiscality.

In the effort to claim some sort of empirical (read masturbatorial) overlordism in the real business world, Thailand has seen fit to mandate its financial decisions based on such time proven wisdoms as: 'Seat of the pants' régimes dictatorialis', 'Gut feeling dynamics for self gratifiaction', and the good old, but extremely powerful financial empiritus based on the ancient Thai proverb, "I have never been colonized so I know better than you" theory.

The Thai government utilizes these fore-mentioned time proven principles for dictation of country policy (no less.) This is 'Standard Operating Procedure' (SOP) in unbalanced and fiscally irresponsible 3rd world banana republics. Thailand has established its financial wisdom thusly.

The Ministers of Thailand, et al, have proven again and again that they have NO CLUE WHATSOEVER as to how things work in the real world. Myanmar, Laos, and Kampuchea make up the short list of countries impressed by Thai legislation policy.

Essential primary education for Thailand fiscal responsibly, not tongue in cheek now:

* Quantum Cash and the non existence of "real" money, and monetary duality.

* Estate Agents Uncertainty Principle

* Schrodingers Bank Account

* Black Scholes

* Relativistic effects and Financial Mass, ( inc. Hype Drives, current technology )

* The Law of Cash/Energy Conservation, ( and Feynman cashflow diagrams ).

* Virtual Economic Particles and the Inflationary Universe

What difference does it make that Thailand cannot assay their own world value? (you may ask) All the difference in the world my brothers, all the difference tn the world. It is like trying to teach a student how to transport trinomial curve intersections into quantum math, when the student just continues to look at his/her fingers to count to 10 properly (and still gets it wrong every time.)

Thailand is a sinking ship of its own device.

Ford went $12,000,000,000 USD in the hole for 2006. However, a full 80% of that went toward one time out the door expenditures such as buyouts, plant closure costs and other favorable but balance sheet corrupting restructuring costs. Large SUVs like the Explorer and Expedition sales HAVE gone south in a hurry this last year however, therefore Ford is now looking to move to new concepts and new markets.

Thailand had the bird in hand, then dictatorially culled it like it had A (H5N1) with bad policy, and then has the gall to re-endorse themselves to bring the dead bird back to life by saying "But it's all just a misunderstanding!" Ford's reply has to be, "What a pile of bull elephant dung you leave for us to look at here Thailand", it can be nothing less. Thailand has now shown its cards, but of course there were no black ones left for Ford in the Thai deck. Thailand made sure of that. Ford understands this, so do we.

After the completely ignorant, xenophobic, (and totally uneducated) cobra-esque financial behavior over the last 4 years by the Thai government; why would Ford have any desire to throw another $1,000,000,000 into the overbloated snake pit known as Thailand? (Ford has many other financially friendly geographical locations in which to blow their non-existent cash.) Ford reasons for investment interest in Thailand were export and regional R&D purposes, NOT in the internal sales of vehicles. ie. Copying industry rivals General Motors Corporation and their amazing productivity in China for example.

Basically, in policy blundering self defeatism, Thailand didn't just shoot itself in the foot with a short sighted pistol, it has blown off both legs from the waist down stepping on a land mine of ignorance (the words "Finance Ministry Thailand" written in poor English on the side.)

Old and in the way in Phuket

Edited February 5, 2007 by blam

[Paul MBMG]

Sorry this is so very long:

Essential primary education for Thailand fiscal responsibly, not tongue in cheek now:

* Quantum Cash and the non existence of "real" money, and monetary duality.

* Estate Agents Uncertainty Principle

* Schrodingers Bank Account

* Black Scholes

* Relativistic effects and Financial Mass, ( inc. Hype Drives, current technology )

* The Law of Cash/Energy Conservation, ( and Feynman cashflow diagrams ).

* Virtual Economic Particles and the Inflationary Universe

Basically, in policy blundering self defeatism, Thailand didn't just shoot itself in the foot with a short sighted pistol, it has blown off both legs from the waist down stepping on a land mine of ignorance (the words "Finance Ministry Thailand" written in poor English on the side.)

Old and in the way in Phuket

have to disagree - one thing that Thailand is doing is setting standards for fiscal and monetary discipline that have been sadly lacking in the highly leveraged western economies over the last 20 years; my argument with Greenspan is financial (assuring that the 21st Century belongs to the PRC) rather than the global warming issue which I wouldn't specifically lay at Big Al's door.

Black-Scholes is so discredited these days (not just because of LTCM but because it's inadequate and flawed) but even before that I don't see how options pricing would help macro policy makers??

[nick2k]

Sorry this is so very long:

Essential primary education for Thailand fiscal responsibly, not tongue in cheek now:

* Quantum Cash and the non existence of "real" money, and monetary duality.

* Estate Agents Uncertainty Principle

* Schrodingers Bank Account

* Black Scholes

* Relativistic effects and Financial Mass, ( inc. Hype Drives, current technology )

* The Law of Cash/Energy Conservation, ( and Feynman cashflow diagrams ).

* Virtual Economic Particles and the Inflationary Universe

Basically, in policy blundering self defeatism, Thailand didn't just shoot itself in the foot with a short sighted pistol, it has blown off both legs from the waist down stepping on a land mine of ignorance (the words "Finance Ministry Thailand" written in poor English on the side.)

Old and in the way in Phuket

have to disagree - one thing that Thailand is doing is setting standards for fiscal and monetary discipline that have been sadly lacking in the highly leveraged western economies over the last 20 years; my argument with Greenspan is financial (assuring that the 21st Century belongs to the PRC) rather than the global warming issue which I wouldn't specifically lay at Big Al's door.

Black-Scholes is so discredited these days (not just because of LTCM but because it's inadequate and flawed) but even before that I don't see how options pricing would help macro policy makers??

the problem with global warming became a real issue in the last 2 decades. so, all policy makers in that period who contributed to globalization are directly responsible for current state of global warming.

with globalization came a massive increase in the use of oil, coal, and other energy sources that create pollution.

with india and china alone, we are experiencing at least a 10x fold increase in the use of the above energy sources. just the other day, I read in the paper that china is going down to africa to bring them into the fold too. once you get everybody in the party, we are probably looking at least a 15x fold increase in the use of energy resources worldwide from what it is today.

tell me how long you think this will last?

I hope I don't have to explain to you how using up our energy resources equates to global warming? if I do, we have no hope.

[Galong]

In other news, Ford has decided to invade Iraq in order to save money....

Excellent and spot-on! Thanks for the laugh Drummer...

[blam]

have to disagree - one thing that Thailand is doing is setting standards for fiscal and monetary discipline that have been sadly lacking in the highly leveraged western economies over the last 20 years; my argument with Greenspan is financial (assuring that the 21st Century belongs to the PRC) rather than the global warming issue which I wouldn't specifically lay at Big Al's door.

Black-Scholes is so discredited these days (not just because of LTCM but because it's inadequate and flawed) but even before that I don't see how options pricing would help macro policy makers??

OK, without getting into quantum behaviors and lead-in fractions and how to determine (in layman's terms) how a foreign investor would want to invest in Thailand. Investment risk in Thailand has now become a strategically complex gamble, has it not? A floating entity of what is today, and what could possibly be tomorrow, or the next day, and so on.

The Black and Scholes primary addition here is based upon the idea: Thai 'financial powers that be' need to educate themselves as to how to include every single element available in interpreting foreign risk of investment. How the Thais handle the elements of investment versus the local Thai need of self aggrandizing fiscal brutality. "Vee don' need your vorthless money farng, but give it here anyvay."

Would you want to invest cash directly in Thailand now? No, I think not. However, if you WERE looking into it, would you want to have a 'better than good' idea of your outlay risk versus income profit levels, (do they match the risk?) Not sure?. Now, think of Thailand's inherent value as a country, a country that wants to produce or manufacture something for itself or for a foreign market. Is the quality and performance up to world standard, is it up to any standard, or is it up to Thai floating standardization techniques? Now, think of how many other elements need to be added in here? 100, 1000, 10,000? One of the biggest problems with the Thailand investment model is assigning value to each risk element. Not only that, where the element will factor in as risk tomorrow, or the next day, or the next, and so on.

Next, now think of Thailand as a very volitional entity, it is, yes it is. And, with that in mind, you must have to think that Thailand therefore becomes an even higher risk investment . If you were considering the gamble, would you involve as many elements as you possibly could to understand the risk of your investment? Of course you would. Would you want to know the best way to optimize a profit without a "your participation was purely voluntary" destabilizing risk factor? Of course you would. Would you want something in writing saying that, if you do invest here, you want all governmental policy elements and factors to be static within a certain time frame and NOT DYNAMICALLY ARBITRARILY ASSIGNED AT SOME MINISTER'S WHIM ? Would you want something in writing that says that if you invest in a SEPARATE COMPANY that is in fact investing large amount of capital here, that you would have the same dynamics? Of course you would.

Black and Scholes is PURELY A QUANTUM MATHEMATICS assessment of an element's future behavior in accordance with puts and calls within a specific time frame, I believe that the theory should be studied and thoroughly understood by the Thai Finance Ministers before they destroy the country's entire financial portfolio. All of the major large investment companies that have been looking to upgrade are now seriously looking at total divestment of everything in Thailand. All of the small investment companies are taking a 'more than negative' view on the recent historical events and evaluating risk assessments in comparison to other more financially stable governments/countries. We are NOT talking about the coup d'etat, this downtrend from xenophobia has been going on for years now.

FORD WANTED TO INVEST BIGTIME MONEY HERE! Even as everyone else is bailing out to Malaysia, Ford is STILL looking at Thailand!

Note. Greespan's (OT BTW) financial model fit the President Bill Clinton's SAIC thinktank quality knowledge and assesment model: Invest in Healthcare, HMOs, and then sit back and count on stability. The Greenspan model DOES NOT match the President George W. Bush model at all. Chaos, fear, and the "my God..." leaps of faith. (GWB fired SAIC the day he took office and had the Pentagon take over all information gathering, digestation, and ultimate assessment; this was an act so profoundly selfish and stupid that it should be at the very ground-level of his impeachment proceedings. Yes, I believe there will be a major call for his impeachment within the next fiscal quarter, don't forget people vote with their wallets and the USA is on the verge of a major financial hit) Hallburton, Browning, and Raytheon investment standards are still in play now howver as the solid investment locations. Corruption and mishandling of Iraq and 9-11, that Thailand would be proud of, has sent gun prices to the moon. (Send lawyers guns and money, Dad get me out of this!)

...

I believe that leveraging with excellent quality information gathering and future element assessment is prudent, and IS successful. All elements are added into the mapping and networking dynamic, and have value. Leaps of faith, or leaps of 'Vee vill now do it dis vay farang' without educated input is hardly the way to do business. It has no positive value as such. Thailand has positioned itself in a vacuum now, and it will remain there until the Ministers, and head administrators of this country, educate themselves in the real business world. Selfish governing behaviors are going to destroy this nice little country. Period.

Old and in the way in Phuket

[Paul MBMG]

OK, without getting into quantum behaviors and lead-in fractions and how to determine (in layman's terms) how a foreign investor would want to invest in Thailand. Investment risk in Thailand has now become a strategically complex gamble, has it not? A floating entity of what is today, and what could possibly be tomorrow, or the next day, and so on.

The Black and Scholes primary addition here is based upon the idea: Thai 'financial powers that be' need to educate themselves as to how to include every single element available in interpreting foreign risk of investment. How the Thais handle the elements of investment versus the local Thai need of self aggrandizing fiscal brutality. "Vee don' need your vorthless money farng, but give it here anyvay."

There's a huge difference between indirect investment and FDI. For the latter the question is more a matter of looking up all the factors that make up cost, risk and opportunity of the business that you're buying into - although it doesn't fully staisfy the criteria for direct investment as such (as he didn't buy a controlling share) for Warren Buffett the risk of buying into Gillette was mitigated by the FACT that people would need to shave each and every day (Buffett didn't reasonably contemplate any other possibility). Have the risks of FDI in Thailand for the likes of Ford changed because of the regulatory changes? You & I both think so - I think that they've been reduced, you think that they've been increased - the foreign investment community as a whole is undecided and ultimately the acceptance or not by the massive wall of inbound Japanese investment will determine whether the revised FBA presses ahead as proposed or whether revisions, such as the preference share issue, are granted. I get the feeling that this is an adminsitration that seeks and respects dialogue. However what I do think is there is a serious under appreciation of the political risks facing Thailand currently. This emphasises the failings of Black Scholes.....

Would you want to invest cash directly in Thailand now? No, I think not.

You would if you were a US$ cash investor - the strongst currency in the world in terms of recent appreciation and short term instituional deposit rates of up to 15% annualised!

However, if you WERE looking into it, would you want to have a 'better than good' idea of your outlay risk versus income profit levels, (do they match the risk?) Not sure?. Now, think of Thailand's inherent value as a country, a country that wants to produce or manufacture something for itself or for a foreign market. Is the quality and performance up to world standard, is it up to any standard, or is it up to Thai floating standardization techniques? Now, think of how many other elements need to be added in here? 100, 1000, 10,000? One of the biggest problems with the Thailand investment model is assigning value to each risk element. Not only that, where the element will factor in as risk tomorrow, or the next day, or the next, and so on.

The SET is discounted because of the risk factors and in my mind not inappropriately so - I'd want to see a greater discount for the political risk before I bought back in. However the S&P 500 is far more overvalued/less appropriately discounted for risk.

Next, now think of Thailand as a very volitional entity, it is, yes it is. And, with that in mind, you must have to think that Thailand therefore becomes an even higher risk investment . If you were considering the gamble, would you involve as many elements as you possibly could to understand the risk of your investment? Of course you would. Would you want to know the best way to optimize a profit without a "your participation was purely voluntary" destabilizing risk factor? Of course you would. Would you want something in writing saying that, if you do invest here, you want all governmental policy elements and factors to be static within a certain time frame and NOT DYNAMICALLY ARBITRARILY ASSIGNED AT SOME MINISTER'S WHIM ? Would you want something in writing that says that if you invest in a SEPARATE COMPANY that is in fact investing large amount of capital here, that you would have the same dynamics? Of course you would.

In reality this may be the most accountable government that Thailand has had in my time here (certainly the one that gets called to account the most!) hence the reason why FDI players seem to be settling on the side of acceptance. Either that or they've just realized that the regulatory furore is just hot air with no lasting impact. Of coure the MNCs have to say that they need to review (what eklse can they say - we're steaming ahead/we're withdrawaing without considering what the consequences might be - I think that Chainsaw Al was the last CEO perceived to be of that ilk!!)

Black and Scholes is PURELY A QUANTUM MATHEMATICS assessment of an element's future behavior in accordance with puts and calls within a specific time frame, I believe that the theory should be studied and thoroughly understood by the Thai Finance Ministers before they destroy the country's entire financial portfolio.

No it isn't - it's a quantum maths formula applied to an economic model - that's very different. Quantum formulae can work well - their internal logic can stand up to scrutiny and be used as physical models - however when you apply these to economics that's when the link fails. For quantum formulae to apply you have to be able to accurately leasure - Black Scholes applies quantum maths on the basis that you can accurately measure where you are today - i.e. efficient market theory. Efficient market theory has proven so disastrously wrong on so many occasions that I think it's fair to say that it's now totally discredited. Scholes major role in the biggest investment loss ever seen was probably the final nail in the coffin. Misunderstand where you are today and you totally underestimate the risk of fat tails. A fat tail wiped out Scholes and his buddies. There's a big fat tail risk now. Black Scholes would be the worst model to study right now - the conclusions would be dangerous and misleading. If we've been here before, then long wave theiry suggest that it was the late 1920s...in which case practising sufficieny rather than leverage would be the best way to avert disaster. I love that chapter by Lowenstein describing freshman economics students in Scholes' classes rushing home to study physics and engineering books to find formulae and then try to apply these to economics (the great pseudo-intellectual bubble that was popped dramatically just after Scholes and Black received their Nobel)

I believe that leveraging with excellent quality information gathering and future element assessment is prudent, and IS successful. All elements are added into the mapping and networking dynamic, and have value. Leaps of faith, or leaps of 'Vee vill now do it dis vay farang' without educated input is hardly the way to do business. It has no positive value as such. Thailand has positioned itself in a vacuum now, and it will remain there until the Ministers, and head administrators of this country, educate themselves in the real business world. Selfish governing behaviors are going to destroy this nice little country. Period.

At times it can be a justifiable high risk tactic - however you need to have an exit strategy - ask everyone who was highly leveraged in 1929 (for that you can probably read 2007/8 IMHO). Greenspan's put has left the US and Western economies exposed to massive risk. The prudence of the current administration here might just limit the damage in this little part of paradise.

[Martin]

"Greenspan's put has left the US and Western economies exposed to massive risk. The prudence of the current administration here might just limit the damage in this little part of paradise."

I think that the first sentence above is correct; and hope the second comes true.

There doesn't seem to be any route away from that risk, because the first step on the way to financial sanity would cause a mad rush by the speculators that would cause the catastrophe to happen.

Once Greenspan took the steps he did, he couldn't turn back.

So, first, dotcoms got completely over-valued.

When that bubble burst, Big Al had to let the housing bubble swell. It did for long enough for him to survive his watch.

Bernanke is trying for the bust not to happen on his watch, but won't succeed.

When something triggers the rush from the US dollar, mayhem will happen.

None of the Central Banks will trigger it. But when some untoward event does, they will join the stampede.

[blam]

quote Paul MBMG : "You would if you were a US$ cash investor - the strongst currency in the world in terms of recent appreciation and short term instituional deposit rates of up to 15% annualised!"

Hey Paul, I have lived here in Thailand for 22 years. I have blown so much good American money here living on my US housing investments from the '80s that it would bring shame to my father's family for me to say how much. Lets just say lots of millions of Baht, not a hundred million, but lots. You just cannot do business here as you do in say the US, Canada, or Western Europe. Especially in real estate.

Thais have terrible intentions about foreign investment money, they really do. Your profits will be anchored then taxed so heavily there is no reasonable chance to get the money out of the country when the time comes.

I lived in Chiang Mai for 19 years, and I have lived in Phuket now for two. The xenophobic selfishness of Thaksin, now cloned and horribly grandfathered over into the new administration, is going to create massive debt in this country. It will force a total crackdown on all money in the near future. What will they call this country then? Cambodia became Kampuchea, Burma became Myanmar, Thailand will become Phrathet Siam Mai? hmm.

Do you live here Paul? If so, I hope that you can get some idea of where this is all leading. I have watched the neighboring countries do, and go through, the exact same processes. The general population was transfixed and lulled into abiding by 'status quo mendacity. Controlling business, controlling investments with a blind eye to reality, then making the population spout xeno- and jingo- istiic diatribes as fed to them on TV and radio. So, you know that they are TRYING to control TV and the Internet now, a lttle at a time... I think it will get worse. Alot worse.

Please believe me Paul, the handwriting is on the wall. And it doesn't take a quantum statistician to see it.

If Ford is smart they will set up shop in Xaimen or Kuala Lumpur and give Thailand a pass for now.

Do not bring US dollars into Thailand, you will lose over 35% in foreign exchange alone over a one year period.

Just my old worthless $.02 worth.

Old and in the way in Phuket.

[Siripon]

quote Paul MBMG : "You would if you were a US$ cash investor - the strongst currency in the world in terms of recent appreciation and short term instituional deposit rates of up to 15% annualised!"

Hey Paul, I have lived here in Thailand for 22 years. I have blown so much good American money here living on my US housing investments from the '80s that it would bring shame to my father's family for me to say how much. Lets just say lots of millions of Baht, not a hundred million, but lots. You just cannot do business here as you do in say the US, Canada, or Western Europe. Especially in real estate.

Thais have terrible intentions about foreign investment money, they really do. Your profits will be anchored then taxed so heavily there is no reasonable chance to get the money out of the country when the time comes.

I lived in Chiang Mai for 19 years, and I have lived in Phuket now for two. The xenophobic selfishness of Thaksin, now cloned and horribly grandfathered over into the new administration, is going to create massive debt in this country. It will force a total crackdown on all money in the near future. What will they call this country then? Cambodia became Kampuchea, Burma became Myanmar, Thailand will become Phrathet Siam Mai? hmm.

Do you live here Paul? If so, I hope that you can get some idea of where this is all leading. I have watched the neighboring countries do, and go through, the exact same processes. The general population was transfixed and lulled into abiding by 'status quo mendacity. Controlling business, controlling investments with a blind eye to reality, then making the population spout xeno- and jingo- istiic diatribes as fed to them on TV and radio. So, you know that they are TRYING to control TV and the Internet now, a lttle at a time... I think it will get worse. Alot worse.

Please believe me Paul, the handwriting is on the wall. And it doesn't take a quantum statistician to see it.

If Ford is smart they will set up shop in Xaimen or Kuala Lumpur and give Thailand a pass for now.

Do not bring US dollars into Thailand, you will lose over 35% in foreign exchange alone over a one year period.

Just my old worthless $.02 worth.

Old and in the way in Phuket.

You can't seriously compare Thailand with Cambodia, a protectorate-cum country, convulsed and destroyed by USA bombing and Vietcong incursions, then literally taken back to year zero by the murderous and paranoid Khmer Rouge. All intellectuals and middle-class dead, they haven't recovered yet.

As for Burma! They haven't had a chance since September 8 1988.

The US dollar is going down, it's hard to see a way up with all that foreign debt.

[Plus]

I'm not sure that Ford will get a better treatment for its eco-car project in Malaysia (that has to protect its own Mira from the likes of Ford), or in India with their Maruti, nor that it will easily find all the necessary infrastructure there so that Ford can just plug in its new plant and roll off thousands of cars that do not exist even on paper yet.

The way things been going for them, no matter where they put that billion (outside of China), they gonna lose it.

[AlexLah]

Hi all,

For your info, Ford is going to invest in Thailand at least in the form of setting up more cardealers with body and paint facilitys.

They have planned 20 for Thailand this year and in total a 120 in Asia.

So maybe a manafacturing plant for Thailand will be put on hold but the cardealers and after service stuff is still on.

Alex

[Paul MBMG]

"Greenspan's put has left the US and Western economies exposed to massive risk. The prudence of the current administration here might just limit the damage in this little part of paradise."

I think that the first sentence above is correct; and hope the second comes true.

There doesn't seem to be any route away from that risk, because the first step on the way to financial sanity would cause a mad rush by the speculators that would cause the catastrophe to happen.

Once Greenspan took the steps he did, he couldn't turn back.

So, first, dotcoms got completely over-valued.

When that bubble burst, Big Al had to let the housing bubble swell. It did for long enough for him to survive his watch.

Bernanke is trying for the bust not to happen on his watch, but won't succeed.

When something triggers the rush from the US dollar, mayhem will happen.

None of the Central Banks will trigger it. But when some untoward event does, they will join the stampede.

I believe that there was a time to call a halt to the madness - that was in 2001 when the US was slipping into the recession that was neccessary to work the debt out of the system. However, Greenspan & co, under massive pressure to do so, took the decision to keep the game going for as long as possible however grievous the consequences might be.

So much of what you say is so sensible and to me obvious, Martin, I wonder why there are so many out there who won't see this until it's too late....

I don't think that anyone can avoid the disaster, but deleverage, avoid risk as far as possible and you'll come out not as bad;y burned as everyone else. Surayud amazed me by echoing this in his speech to the FCCT - there are people in this regime who are clearly smarter than some of the people who decry them as being stupid....

[blam]

"Greenspan's put has left the US and Western economies exposed to massive risk. The prudence of the current administration here might just limit the damage in this little part of paradise."

I think that the first sentence above is correct; and hope the second comes true.

There doesn't seem to be any route away from that risk, because the first step on the way to financial sanity would cause a mad rush by the speculators that would cause the catastrophe to happen.

Once Greenspan took the steps he did, he couldn't turn back.

So, first, dotcoms got completely over-valued.

When that bubble burst, Big Al had to let the housing bubble swell. It did for long enough for him to survive his watch.

Bernanke is trying for the bust not to happen on his watch, but won't succeed.

When something triggers the rush from the US dollar, mayhem will happen.

None of the Central Banks will trigger it. But when some untoward event does, they will join the stampede.

I believe that there was a time to call a halt to the madness - that was in 2001 when the US was slipping into the recession that was neccessary to work the debt out of the system. However, Greenspan & co, under massive pressure to do so, took the decision to keep the game going for as long as possible however grievous the consequences might be.

So much of what you say is so sensible and to me obvious, Martin, I wonder why there are so many out there who won't see this until it's too late....

I don't think that anyone can avoid the disaster, but deleverage, avoid risk as far as possible and you'll come out not as bad;y burned as everyone else. Surayud amazed me by echoing this in his speech to the FCCT - there are people in this regime who are clearly smarter than some of the people who decry them as being stupid....

Ah ha, I see. You don't live here then do you Paul?

Watch, just watch. You won't see it coming, but it will come straight at you, you will be blinded by the ferocity of the speed with which it arrives. Then, there is the utter disbelief as it passes over you. Suddenly, and finally, you realize that the deed has been done. Even Microsoft couldn't remain clear headed here after they moved into the new corporate headquarters and realized how much money they had squandered. Samsung? Motorola? Western Digital? Hitatchi? BMW? Sanyo? General Electric? A massive waste of time and money? You bet! Everybody that knows about this, or has gotten taken themselves, don't be afraid, hold your hands up right now!

Greenspan is the least of my worries. It's the Thais. I am here, with my feet on the ground in Thailand. Have watched their inner workngs devour up to 80% of new business investors here in Phuket over just the last year, (luckily, I was not one of them either.) I don't think that all those people that lost their dough here care much about what ol' Al did in the early aughts. This is about the Thais and how they work their magic to make sure that you are firmly separated from any resources you may have imported, and how they make sure that you have absolutely nothing to show for anything when you leave. It's called doing a 'Sri Tononchai' and the Thais admire this method of making money more than any other way. They fleece you.

If you ARE here, I suggest that you watch your butt over the next 10 months, the blame game simply does not get your money back. Remember Thailand was 85% forested 25 years ago, and it is now 20%? They don't care man, they just don't care. All those 'Teakwood' investors? (No, I was not one of those either~) Hello, the trees are gone, but the investors lost all of their money, ALL of it. The Thais really didn't care about the crash in 97 at all either. Hey, they just DON'T CARE!

Blanket statement from a guy that has seen it all here? Three coups, big corruptions, little corruptions, more big corruptions, killing in the name of self righteousness and drug intervention, police smuggling Burmese chicks to be indentured slaves and prostitutes, setups, ripoffs, and endless graft, and three new airports. The Thais are the best in the world at it, and that includes the Arabs in South Kurdistan and the Indian beggars of Jakarta. This particular coup, though, is not the same as the ones before it, these guys take themselves seriously. They are dangerous.

Do not invest money here. Blow it, spend it, throw it away, give to your girlfrend and tell her to buy a new house and car with it, but for heaven's sake do not invest your cash here. Period.

Ford is going to lose their a$$. And again, it has nothing to do with high level economic theory or that bad ol' Al Greenspan.

[klikster]

Sorry this is so very long:

This is Ford doing business. This is Thailand doing xenophobics.

<snip>

Best post in the thread .. may be the best I've read on ThaiVisa.

[taxexile]

UPDATE 1-Ford, Mazda to build new $500 mln Thai plant-source

Mon Oct 8, 2007 10:47pm EDT

By Vithoon Amorn and Chang-Ran Kim

BANGKOK/TOKYO, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Mazda Motor Corp (7261.T: Quote, Profile, Research) will announce plans for a new Thai car factory with an investment of about $500 million, a source familiar with the project said on Tuesday.

The factory, to be built next to their existing pickup truck plant in the southeastern province of Rayong, will produce subcompact cars, the source said.

Mazda, held one-third by Ford, said earlier that its president, Hisakazu Imaki, would hold a news conference at 0900 GMT in Hiroshima regarding the company's 50-50 Thai joint venture with Ford. A separate briefing will take place in Bangkok at 0930 GMT.

A Mazda spokesman declined to provide further details.

The two automakers had been expected to announce plans to boost production in Thailand after Mazda Executive Vice President Robert Graziano said in March that they had entered discussions with the Thai government over the issue. A separate Mazda executive said then that some of the added capacity would be used to supply demand in Europe.

Mazda remodelled its Mazda2/Demio subcompact in July, saying it aimed to sell at least 130,000 units of the model a year globally.

The announcement on Tuesday would follow the opening last month of Ford and Mazda's new three-way factory in Nanjing, China, with local partner Chongqing Changan Automobile Co (000625.SZ: Quote, Profile, Research). The 160,000-units-a-year factory also builds the Mazda2 model.

Ford and Mazda's current Thai factory has an annual output capacity of 173,000 units and exclusively builds pickup trucks, mainly for exports.

Mazda's shares rose 3.2 percent to 648 yen in morning trade, boosted by the dollar's rise against the yen.

[lazeeboy]

Well, I'm sure this has absolutely nothing to do with the fact that Ford had a record 12 billion loss

good point , ford are in trouble and looking for savings anywhere they can find them.

they could save a lot of money else where in the world ,thailand has cheap land and labor compared to europe .

[keemapoot]

Thailand makes a lot of sense for many reasons. The auto producing and exporting infrastructure is in place and working well. Any incremental savings by relocating to China would not be worth it. Ford made a good decision.

[MIDthemoron]

But don't you guys realize that the current leaders of Thailand are all EVIL!!!!! You have no rights.

Now where is my burrito

[Old Man River]

Thailand makes a lot of sense for many reasons. The auto producing and exporting infrastructure is in place and working well. Any incremental savings by relocating to China would not be worth it. Ford made a good decision.

Keernapoot, while Ford made the right decision, please note that it wasn't in respect to Thailand vs. China. Ford is already in China, and in fact less than a month ago officially launched their USD 510 million, state of the art manufacturing facility in Nanjing, China. In Thailand, due to the Treaty of Amity, Ford is allowed to own 100%, a major attraction for US MNC's.

As for those that compare their investments and investment decisions to major MNC's like Ford, it is hilarious. Please, some more comedy. I can't wait for some more "compulsory" reading.

Edited October 9, 2007 by Old Man River