Cleaning lady

[manarak]

10 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

You mean like the story of the bonuses some companies were giving after the tax cut? Did that bother you, too?

 

large bonuses which are not directly tied to verified personal performance of people who are mere employees bother me in general, not just after tax cuts.

 

but we have to recognize biaised journalism when we see it.

Edited June 26, 2018 by manarak

[lannarebirth]

8 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

 

 

Well, that's a first.  

 

Anyway...  The news is usually wrong and then there are myriad publications that will give you some spin on the wrong news depending on whose interests need to be favored. What's needed is some perspective.

 

http://www.cumber.com/man-bites-dog-by-bob-brusca/

 

 

[neeray]

1 hour ago, manarak said:

 

I'm surprised (or rather NOT) that the media all use the case of Harley Davidson, because it's a rather small company which is in the nowadays rather rare situation of exporting from the USA to the EU, but which doesn't matter at all in the big picture.

 

I haven't heard so far of a media publication of an analysis of how imports and exports will be impacted by tariffs and what the likely influence on US and EU economies will be.

Instead, they concentrate on an insignificant story that makes Trump look bad.

 

 

A few excerpts from current news.

 

The first casualties of President Trump’s trade war are 60 workers at Mid-Continent Nail, America’s largest nail manufacturer. They lost their jobs on June 15 at a factory in a part of Missouri that voted overwhelmingly for Trump. The whole company could be out of business by Labor Day.

This is a potential game changer in Trump’s trade strategy, especially if it marks the start of more companies announcing layoffs. On Monday, Harley-Davidson said it will be moving some “production” offshore because of the trade war (Europe hit Harley with a 31 percent tariff in response to Trump’s steel tariffs on Europe). Harley won’t confirm whether jobs are leaving the United States, but the union representing many Harley workers, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, is worried.

The Trump administration has argued that these tariffs will save jobs and that the cost to America will be minor. But now there are real job losses. Now there is a human face to the pain that so many trade experts have been warning about.

Mid-Continent Nail blames the layoffs on Trump’s tariffs, and the company says all 500 employees could lose their jobs by Labor Day. The next round of cuts could come in a matter of days.

The trouble for the company started at the end of May when Trump put a hefty 25 percent tariff on steel imports from Mexico and Canada. Mid-Continent had been importing steel from Mexico that American workers would then turn into nails.

After the tariff, the company was forced to hike its prices, and customers fled. Orders are a mere 30 percent of what they were a year ago, said George Skarich, the vice president of sales. He suspects many customers are now buying Chinese nails.

Trump campaigned on “jobs, jobs, jobs.” He promised to be the “greatest jobs producer God ever created.” He and his team regularly argue that the tariffs are going to save jobs and even bring jobs back from overseas. But the vast majority of economists and business leaders have warned that many more jobs are likely to be lost than saved.

[manarak]

3 minutes ago, neeray said:

A few excerpts from current news.

 

The first casualties of President Trump’s trade war are 60 workers at Mid-Continent Nail, America’s largest nail manufacturer. They lost their jobs on June 15 at a factory in a part of Missouri that voted overwhelmingly for Trump. The whole company could be out of business by Labor Day.

This is a potential game changer in Trump’s trade strategy, especially if it marks the start of more companies announcing layoffs. On Monday, Harley-Davidson said it will be moving some “production” offshore because of the trade war (Europe hit Harley with a 31 percent tariff in response to Trump’s steel tariffs on Europe). Harley won’t confirm whether jobs are leaving the United States, but the union representing many Harley workers, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, is worried.

The Trump administration has argued that these tariffs will save jobs and that the cost to America will be minor. But now there are real job losses. Now there is a human face to the pain that so many trade experts have been warning about.

Mid-Continent Nail blames the layoffs on Trump’s tariffs, and the company says all 500 employees could lose their jobs by Labor Day. The next round of cuts could come in a matter of days.

The trouble for the company started at the end of May when Trump put a hefty 25 percent tariff on steel imports from Mexico and Canada. Mid-Continent had been importing steel from Mexico that American workers would then turn into nails.

After the tariff, the company was forced to hike its prices, and customers fled. Orders are a mere 30 percent of what they were a year ago, said George Skarich, the vice president of sales. He suspects many customers are now buying Chinese nails.

Trump campaigned on “jobs, jobs, jobs.” He promised to be the “greatest jobs producer God ever created.” He and his team regularly argue that the tariffs are going to save jobs and even bring jobs back from overseas. But the vast majority of economists and business leaders have warned that many more jobs are likely to be lost than saved.

 

again just cherry picking.

a few anecdotical examples don't make a valid case against the new tariffs.

 

any adjustment of tariffs is going to cost jobs somewhere, but also probably preserve or create jobs elsewhere.

 

I'm completely ready to accept arguments resulting from an analysis done by someone who understands the economy and international trade.

[observer90210]

Tit-for-tat  - part II

 

(is this gonna be like the Star Wars 40 years sequel?)

[Psimbo]

15 minutes ago, manarak said:

 

again just cherry picking.

a few anecdotical examples don't make a valid case against the new tariffs.

 

any adjustment of tariffs is going to cost jobs somewhere, but also probably preserve or create jobs elsewhere.

 

I'm completely ready to accept arguments resulting from an analysis done by someone who understands the economy and international trade.

Yep- deny, deny, deny.

 

It's clear how you feel about the orange buffoon stumbling from one foot in mouth decision to the next.

[candide]

13 minutes ago, manarak said:

 

again just cherry picking.

a few anecdotical examples don't make a valid case against the new tariffs.

 

any adjustment of tariffs is going to cost jobs somewhere, but also probably preserve or create jobs elsewhere.

 

I'm completely ready to accept arguments resulting from an analysis done by someone who understands the economy and international trade.

Several estimates have been published. Actually I don't remember having read any estimate or analysis showing that Trump's tariffs would have a positive impact on the U.S. economy. All economists seem to agree that the impact would be negative.

[manarak]

1 minute ago, candide said:

Several estimates have been published. Actually I don't remember having read any estimate or analysis showing that Trump's tariffs would have a positive impact on the U.S. economy. All economists seem to agree that the impact would be negative.

links please?

all I have heard so far is journalists repeating free trade mantras.

I haven't read any estimates, but I would like to.

[manarak]

6 minutes ago, Psimbo said:

Yep- deny, deny, deny.

 

It's clear how you feel about the orange buffoon stumbling from one foot in mouth decision to the next.

 

I didn't deny anything.

you are the buffoon here for dismissing my demand for a factual analysis because it doesn't fit your political views and faction strategy of distorting and badmouthing everything the other side does.

 

looks almost as if you are afraid that the analysis would in the end show other results than what you are hoping for ?

 

[candide]

15 minutes ago, manarak said:

links please?

all I have heard so far is journalists repeating free trade mantras.

I haven't read any estimates, but I would like to.

I just googled "trump tariff impact" and found estimates in a few ones. For example in this article:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/01/trump-tariffs-will-shrink-savings-americans-gained-from-tax-cuts.html

It can surely be discussed whether these estimates are valid or not. But as I wrote before what is remarkable is the absence of any analysis or estimate showing that Trump's tariffs will have a positive effect.

By curiosity, I would like to see some analyses supporting Trump's position.

Would you have any link of such analyses? ?

Edited June 26, 2018 by candide

[manarak]

10 minutes ago, candide said:

I just googled "trump tariff impact" and found estimates in a few ones. For example in this article:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/01/trump-tariffs-will-shrink-savings-americans-gained-from-tax-cuts.html

It can surely be discussed if these estimates are valid or not. But as I wrote before what is remarkable is the absence of any analysis or estimate showing that Trump's tariffs will have a positive effect.

By curiosity, I would like to see some analyses supporting Trump's position.

Would you have any link of such analyses? ?

honestly, I don't.

I have now done some research and read some articles.

 

this one has an interesting political reading:

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2018/04/09/how-chinas-tariffs-could-affect-u-s-workers-and-industries/

 

I found this presentation by RolandBerger, a renowned management consulting company, but it's over a year old:

https://www.rolandberger.com/publications/publication_pdf/17_02_20_chi_tru_protectionism_and_the_us_auto_industry_21.pdf

 

good points are made about how the tariffs could adversely affect the US auto industry.

 

here is another paper saying the same:

https://piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/trumps-proposed-auto-tariffs-would-throw-us-automakers-and

 

here some general facts about steel and alu production in the world:

https://www.cargroup.org/automotive-trade-implications-new-2018-steel-aluminum-tariffs/

 

so there you have it - I do understand why the US would want tariffs on imported manufactured products, but regarding steel and alu I don't quite understand, especially about steel.

[Chomper Higgot]

22 minutes ago, manarak said:

honestly, I don't.

I have now done some research and read some articles.

 

this one has an interesting political reading:

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2018/04/09/how-chinas-tariffs-could-affect-u-s-workers-and-industries/

 

I found this presentation by RolandBerger, a renowned management consulting company, but it's over a year old:

https://www.rolandberger.com/publications/publication_pdf/17_02_20_chi_tru_protectionism_and_the_us_auto_industry_21.pdf

 

good points are made about how the tariffs could adversely affect the US auto industry.

 

here is another paper saying the same:

https://piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/trumps-proposed-auto-tariffs-would-throw-us-automakers-and

 

here some general facts about steel and alu production in the world:

https://www.cargroup.org/automotive-trade-implications-new-2018-steel-aluminum-tariffs/

 

so there you have it - I do understand why the US would want tariffs on imported manufactured products, but regarding steel and alu I don't quite understand, especially about steel.

I’m quite certain that when the truth of it all comes out we’ll learn Trump’s announcements on trade or on individual businesses is nothing more than a money making scam in which he, his family and/or close associates are the people making  the money.

[tomacht8]

20 minutes ago, manarak said:

honestly, I don't.

I have now done some research and read some articles.

 

this one has an interesting political reading:

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2018/04/09/how-chinas-tariffs-could-affect-u-s-workers-and-industries/

 

I found this presentation by RolandBerger, a renowned management consulting company, but it's over a year old:

https://www.rolandberger.com/publications/publication_pdf/17_02_20_chi_tru_protectionism_and_the_us_auto_industry_21.pdf

 

good points are made about how the tariffs could adversely affect the US auto industry.

 

here is another paper saying the same:

https://piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/trumps-proposed-auto-tariffs-would-throw-us-automakers-and

 

here some general facts about steel and alu production in the world:

https://www.cargroup.org/automotive-trade-implications-new-2018-steel-aluminum-tariffs/

 

so there you have it - I do understand why the US would want tariffs on imported manufactured products, but regarding steel and alu I don't quite understand, especially about steel.

I think it's good that you take the trouble and read studies. With high probability you now have more detail knowledge than the orange clown.

 

However, it does not make sense in the valuation of trade flows to compare the customs value for a single economic good. Unfortunately, the orange clown makes this, to stimulate his uninformed electorate always in a populistic art. nice example are his milk tariffs with canada.

International trade can not be explained with a single set of solutions in one liners.

Look at the service balances. The US has export surpluses everywhere. DT is here a nasty bird.
unfortunately, so many americans believe his half-truths.

[bristolboy]

"Imagine that you’re Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, who has already been telling leaders of multinational corporations that he plans to “punch back” against Trump’s tariffs. How do you feel seeing Trump squealing over a few hundred jobs possibly lost in the face of European retaliation? Surely the spectacle inclines you to take a hard line: If such a small pinprick upsets Trump so much, the odds are pretty good that he’ll blink in the face of real confrontation."

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/28/opinion/trump-harley-davidson-trade-war-tariffs.html

[bristolboy]

Trump's people are either idiots or deranged fantasists. This  is a link to an interview with Peter Navarro. Trump's favorite trade advisor,  in which he claims that other countries won't retialiate for Trump's imposition of tariffs.

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/5743778657001/?#sp=show-clips