Put your cards on the table, EU makes last Brexit call to Britain

[sandyf]

2 hours ago, The Renegade said:

 

The silence is outstanding ??

A breach of forum rules, source of first quote is wrong and the text has been truncated resulting in a loss of context.

[sirineou]

2 hours ago, The Renegade said:

 

The silence is outstanding ??

 The silence is outstanding?? 

[tebee]

There is actually a bizarre irony with the rhetoric for NO deal being alright  

 

The eurosceptics have been warning for decades that we risk becoming so far enmeshed with the EU that we have no control - yet they seem to think we can unplug overnight and everything will be fine. 

 

It won't. 

 

Much of the  turmoil will flow from not knowing what the new legal circumstances are. This is something very easy to get wrong and the flow of information from the government is not likely to improve. All we have to go on is the EU's own notices to stakeholders. We are looking at a mass failure of government communication - not least because they have no idea.
 

Single market systems have been established for so long that few ever remember things being all that different. For as long as most of us have been alive we've had all mod cons and fully stocked supermarkets. Nobody ever really stops to ask why or how. Similarly things like medicines and pharmaceuticals approvals are seldom ever in the news unless there is a major breakdown or a corruption scandal.

 

Should we drop out of the EU without a deal, becoming a third country overnight, a lot of this will simply stop working - or continue working but only half as well.

 

It could be  an overnight calamity which gets progressively worse or a slow motion implosion over many weeks and months. Job losses will be the trailing indicator so it will be a while before we start seeing the full effect of the fallout.

 

 

[Rally123]

I don't really understand all you Remoaners. When were weren't in the EEC/EU everything worked perfectly well with regards to travel, jobs, life etc. Now yer telling us that by leaving we're all doomed if when we leave. I'll gladly take my chance and leave.

[Rally123]

4 minutes ago, tebee said:

yet they seem to think we can unplug overnight and everything will be fine. 

 

It won't. 

I agree and being as I'm a Brexiteer I'm prepared to accept the pitfalls that may come in the years ahead. That is if there are any? All will not be known in advance so stop doom forecasting.

[tomacht8]

28 minutes ago, tebee said:

I'll give you one - Commercial drivers are screwed, that is for both passenger vehicles and goods vehicles. To be a union operator you will need a transport manager in the EU27, otherwise you are a third country operator. That means you can’t do cabotage runs (not gonna explain that, look it up and use the word cabotage much much more) and if you do a lot of commercial transport in the EU27 you are going to have to seriously consider moving there.

 

https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/legislation/brexit-notice-to-stakeholders-road-transport.pdf

There will also be restrictions on air traffic if the UK becomes a third country and no preparatory arrangements have been made.
It is likely that the UK would initially fail to participate in the free internal aviation market. This would apply to flights operated by British airlines within or between EU / ECAA states and, in turn, flights operated by airlines from EU / ECAA states within the UK or from other EU / ECAA states (7th and 9th freedom). The British easyJet could then no longer operate between France and Italy or within Spain, and the Irish Ryanair should fly only from Ireland, but no longer from other EU countries to the UK.

[Chomper Higgot]

5 minutes ago, Rally123 said:

I don't really understand all you Remoaners. When were weren't in the EEC/EU everything worked perfectly well with regards to travel, jobs, life etc. Now yer telling us that by leaving we're all doomed if when we leave. I'll gladly take my chance and leave.

I’m sure there are many things you don’t understand.

 

One of which seems to be the integration across the EU of markets, businesses, production, finance, research, security, defence, policing....

[vogie]

9 minutes ago, tebee said:

There is actually a bizarre irony with the rhetoric for NO deal being alright  

 

The eurosceptics have been warning for decades that we risk becoming so far enmeshed with the EU that we have no control - yet they seem to think we can unplug overnight and everything will be fine. 

 

It won't. 

 

Much of the  turmoil will flow from not knowing what the new legal circumstances are. This is something very easy to get wrong and the flow of information from the government is not likely to improve. All we have to go on is the EU's own notices to stakeholders. We are looking at a mass failure of government communication - not least because they have no idea.
 

Single market systems have been established for so long that few ever remember things being all that different. For as long as most of us have been alive we've had all mod cons and fully stocked supermarkets. Nobody ever really stops to ask why or how. Similarly things like medicines and pharmaceuticals approvals are seldom ever in the news unless there is a major breakdown or a corruption scandal.

 

Should we drop out of the EU without a deal, becoming a third country overnight, a lot of this will simply stop working - or continue working but only half as well.

 

It could be  an overnight calamity which gets progressively worse or a slow motion implosion over many weeks and months. Job losses will be the trailing indicator so it will be a while before we start seeing the full effect of the fallout.

 

 

All your predictions could be correct.

[Chomper Higgot]

1 minute ago, vogie said:

All your predictions could be correct.

If only Brexiteers had put as much effort into making a Brexit plan as they have put into that one piece of drivel (let alone the thousands like it).

[vogie]

1 minute ago, Chomper Higgot said:

If only Brexiteers had put as much effort into making a Brexit plan as they have put into that one piece of drivel (let alone the thousands like it).

For some-one thats in minority Chomper, I think that is very cruel, if I thought you meant it I would be deeply upset.

[tomacht8]

47 minutes ago, tebee said:

I'll give you one - Commercial drivers are screwed, that is for both passenger vehicles and goods vehicles. To be a union operator you will need a transport manager in the EU27, otherwise you are a third country operator. That means you can’t do cabotage runs (not gonna explain that, look it up and use the word cabotage much much more) and if you do a lot of commercial transport in the EU27 you are going to have to seriously consider moving there.

 

https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/legislation/brexit-notice-to-stakeholders-road-transport.pdf

Also Brexit endangers medicines supply in Europe. The drug manufacturers can choose the licensing authority in Europe freely and have in recent years and decades, especially for the British Admissions authority MHRA decided. Of the 14,000 medicines approved in one EU member state across the EU, around 23% are in the United Kingdom. These 3216 medicines now need a new home on the continent so that they can still be sold in the EU after Brexit.Last year, there were once three admissions a month, which changed from London to the continent, sometimes there were seven or even eleven. Only since April of this year, the affected companies seem to slowly recognize the seriousness of the situation: In April and May of this year, 133 and 123 licenses were transferred to registration offices on the continent.

[stephenterry]

1 hour ago, nauseus said:

The influence of the ECJ was a major reason for leaving. Don't talk rubbish. 

You clearly don't understand my post. The referendum question did NOT include exiting the ECJ, nor the single market, nor the customs union, nor Euratom. That was Theresa May's interpretation of what leaving the EU, was.

 

Perhaps you like to consider your ill-judged and impolite response in contravention of forum rule 16. I welcome an adult debate, but not a derogatory reply.

 

Thank you.

   

[tebee]

1 hour ago, nauseus said:

The influence of the ECJ was a major reason for leaving. Don't talk rubbish. 

OK I've never understood the irrational hatred for the ECJ - I have personally benefited from it's decisions.

 

Can people explain  it to me ?  

[billd766]

12 hours ago, sirineou said:

 That may be so ,

but if after the 1975 referendum and before you joined, more facts came to light that were not known or considered in the 1975 referendum, would you not want the option to reconsider? 

From previous posts I know you to  be a reasonable man, and as such  I think you would. So why not now?

 

There was NO option after the 1975 referendum by ANY government to permit anybody to change their minds until 2016 so your thought is wasted.

 

Why not now? Running up to the 2016 information was freely available if anyone was interested enough to look.

 

Did I believe the claims by either side of paradise to come or divine retribution? Not in the slightest. I searched around and made my mind up the I would vote to leave and if another referendum came along I would still vote leave.

 

IMHO the EU does not want Brexit to happen as other countries who are DENIED a referendum by the EU may also want to leave and then the EU dream will be seen as what it is, simply a dream.

 

If the EU really reformed itself then I would reconsider my vote, but I know that it won't.

[stephenterry]

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

I’m sure there are many things you don’t understand.

 

One of which seems to be the integration across the EU of markets, businesses, production, finance, research, security, defence, policing....

and attempting to unravel these important facets is clearly impossible for any government in a two year period. after the next election, perhaps, when the UK after finally admitting failure, will seek re-admittance to Euratom, the single market, customs union and accept ECJ intervention in some respects, as per Norway and Switzerland. 

 

That's a future forecast, BTW. And no doubt the Corbyn led Labour government will find an alternative route in financially sinking the UK's economy. 

[billd766]

12 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

you are right about availability of info now compared to before

but also take into account that in 2016 you were a lot older and presumably wiser than in 1975.

 

(beside the point/thread but your history lesson re 1975 is off,

 I used ARPANET/Internet in the late 70s, where I come from we had mobile phones in the 70s,

 also; I used social media heavily in the late 70s )

 

 

Really? So did you have a vote in the 1975 general election?  

 

Norway did have ARPANET in 1971 as did the USA but it was of little use to the real world.

 

Lots of interesting information here.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARPANET

 

More information on the origins and public availability of the internet here.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet

 

Commercial Internet service providers (ISPs) emerged in the late 1980s and early1990s. The ARPANET was decommissioned in 1990. By 1995, the Internet was fully commercialized in the U.S. when the NSFNet was decommissioned, removing the last restrictions on use of the Internet to carry commercial traffic.

 

Motorola was the company that first built a cellular phone system in 1973. Oddly enough I worked for Motorola cellular from 1988 until 1999 building cellular networks in the UK, Qatar, Kuwait, Chile, Venezuela, Indonesia twice, Brunei, Sri Lanka Thailand 4 times. I also worked in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Papua New Guinea and New Zealand on mobile networks.

 

I do have a fair Idea of what I am talking about.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Nokia#Mobile_radio_telephony

 

In 1979, the merger of Nokia and Salora resulted in the establishment of "Mobira Oy". Mobira developed mobile phones for the Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT) network, called the "1G" and was the first fully automatic cellular phone system. It became commercially available in 1981.

 

 

[billd766]

11 hours ago, nauseus said:

A pause of disgust.

 

Followed by gales of derision and laughter.  

 

 

No I am not.

[RuamRudy]

Excellent point put to Jacob Rees Mogg by Krishnan Guru Murthy:

 

"You don't seem to be prepared to put your own future on the line when you're prepared to put everybody else's futures on the line."

[The Renegade]

50 minutes ago, stephenterry said:

You clearly don't understand my post. The referendum question did NOT include exiting the ECJ, nor the single market, nor the customs union, nor Euratom. That was Theresa May's interpretation of what leaving the EU, was.

???

 

The referendum was a clear cut question '' Leave or Stay ''

 

Para 3, Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty defines what Leave means.

 

Quote

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

Very clear and not open to interpretation. On the implementation of Article 50 '' The treaties '' cease to apply. Immediately or after a 2 year period. Which could be extended.

 

Your opinion on Theresa May's interpretation of what leaving the EU means is irrelevant.

[billd766]

1 hour ago, tomacht8 said:

There will also be restrictions on air traffic if the UK becomes a third country and no preparatory arrangements have been made.
It is likely that the UK would initially fail to participate in the free internal aviation market. This would apply to flights operated by British airlines within or between EU / ECAA states and, in turn, flights operated by airlines from EU / ECAA states within the UK or from other EU / ECAA states (7th and 9th freedom). The British easyJet could then no longer operate between France and Italy or within Spain, and the Irish Ryanair should fly only from Ireland, but no longer from other EU countries to the UK.

 

I am sure that you have the link to prove this?

 

That would equally mean that EU flights could not be operated from the UK. However flights from the Middle East, Asia, China Australia, New Zealand etc would not be affected.

[Chomper Higgot]

9 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

Excellent point put to Jacob Rees Mogg by Krishnan Guru Murthy:

 

"You don't seem to be prepared to put your own future on the line when you're prepared to put everybody else's futures on the line."

Rees-Mogg’s hedge fund is betting against the U.K.

[The Renegade]

2 hours ago, tebee said:

I'll give you one - Commercial drivers are screwed, that is for both passenger vehicles and goods vehicles.

Is that just UK drivers tebee or both UK and EU drivers ?

 

Isn't it amazing that coach tours and commercial drivers went both ways before these 2003 rules came into effect ?

 

Good effort on your behalf, you managed to find one out of the many, many that was claimed.

[tomacht8]

17 minutes ago, billd766 said:

 

I am sure that you have the link to prove this?

 

That would equally mean that EU flights could not be operated from the UK. However flights from the Middle East, Asia, China Australia, New Zealand etc would not be affected.

The authors are scientific assistants at the Institute for Airport and Air Traffic of the German Aerospace Center (e.V.) in Cologne and focus on aviation forecasts, also taking into account capacity restrictions, as well as supply and competition analyzes and market and environmental regulation of aviation.

https://elib.dlr.de/106062/1/Brexit v1.3_post_print pdf.pdf

 

[stephenterry]

43 minutes ago, The Renegade said:

???

 

The referendum was a clear cut question '' Leave or Stay ''

 

Para 3, Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty defines what Leave means.

 

Very clear and not open to interpretation. On the implementation of Article 50 '' The treaties '' cease to apply. Immediately or after a 2 year period. Which could be extended.

 

Your opinion on Theresa May's interpretation of what leaving the EU means is irrelevant.

You are wrong, or, more correctly, misunderstand what the referendum question asked.

“Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”

 

There was no obligation for May to do anything other than leave the EU sometime, if she respected the referendum vote. No mandate for anything else.

 

And no immediate obligation to invoke Article 50, or to leave the single market, or customs union, or Euratom, or reject the ECJ's rulings. Something Brexiteers ignore, and they would be wise to realise that their 'winning' mandate should not be overloaded with meanings not in the referendum question. That May chose to do the opposite, IMO, is her right as PM, and with parliament approval and the Queen's permission. 

 

Repeated for a better understanding. 

 

“Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”

 

So please don't try and obfuscate the facts and truths. 

 

 

 

Edited July 22, 2018 by stephenterry
correction

[stephenterry]

32 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Rees-Mogg’s hedge fund is betting against the U.K.

as the UK crashing out of the EU would open up trading opportunities with emerging markets - his hedge fund that has opened up a new outlet in Dublin, so that it has free access to the EU and their trading partners world-wide.

 

 

[candide]

16 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

The authors are scientific assistants at the Institute for Airport and Air Traffic of the German Aerospace Center (e.V.) in Cologne and focus on aviation forecasts, also taking into account capacity restrictions, as well as supply and competition analyzes and market and environmental regulation of aviation.

https://elib.dlr.de/106062/1/Brexit v1.3_post_print pdf.pdf

 

Quite interesting report. I did not pay attention to this aspect of Brexit before. In the absence of an agreement, it will result in significant restrictions on intra-EU flights for British companies and vice-versa. I guess part of it could be avoided by establishing subsidiaries and hubs in the EU, but not without impacting the cost structure.

[stephenterry]

9 minutes ago, The Renegade said:

The referendum was a clear cut question '' Leave or Stay ''

Does anyone consider this above remark to be a question? I guess plain English is not a  strong point.

This was the question, with tick boxes underneath.  Does it mention ANYTHING other than whether the UK should remain or leave the EU? 

“Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”

 

[candide]

1 hour ago, tebee said:

OK I've never understood the irrational hatred for the ECJ - I have personally benefited from it's decisions.

 

Can people explain  it to me ?  

So do I. I never understood why it is considered as the ultimate evil. Probably because it is "European".

I mean, there should be a long list of erroneous or unfair decisions to back this hatred, but I have never seen it (nor have I been able to collect it).

[tomacht8]

For, unlike the Brexit campaign, Britain - at least in science and research, an important economic factor in the country - is one of the European Union's biggest profiteers. 840 million pounds flowed from EU sources to UK universities in 2015/16; 15 percent of all funds from the EU research framework program "Horizon 2020" have been raised by the British, which is second behind Germany.
That's why Alasdair MacDonald works to build up at Berlin a branch of Oxford University, and other UK universities are also opening their offshoots across Europe. Who has an official status in a European country, so the bill, could possibly continue to apply for EU funds.

The fact that one of the oldest and best universities in the world is making representations in a European metropolis and asking for research asylum, shows just how high the pressure is.

[billd766]

40 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

The authors are scientific assistants at the Institute for Airport and Air Traffic of the German Aerospace Center (e.V.) in Cologne and focus on aviation forecasts, also taking into account capacity restrictions, as well as supply and competition analyzes and market and environmental regulation of aviation.

https://elib.dlr.de/106062/1/Brexit v1.3_post_print pdf.pdf

 

But they did not say definitely it will happen, but likely, perhaps, possibly or maybe, because nobody really know what the future may bring.