U.S. has plan to dismantle North Korea nuclear program within a year - Bolton

[webfact]

U.S. has plan to dismantle North Korea nuclear program within a year - Bolton

By Doina Chiacu and David Brunnstrom

 

U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton attends a news conference in Moscow, Russia June 27, 2018. REUTERS/Sergei Karpukhin

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - White House national security adviser John Bolton said on Sunday he believed the bulk of North Korea's weapons programs could be dismantled within a year, although some experts say the complete process could take far longer.

 

Bolton told CBS's "Face the Nation" that Washington has devised a program to dismantle North Korea's weapons of mass destruction - chemical, biological and nuclear - and ballistic missile programs in a year, if there is full cooperation and disclosure from Pyongyang.

 

"If they have the strategic decision already made to do that and they're cooperative, we can move very quickly," he said. "Physically we would be able to dismantle the overwhelming bulk of their programs within a year."

 

He said Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will likely discuss that proposal with the North Koreans soon. The Financial Times reported that Pompeo was due to visit North Korea this week but the State Department has not confirmed any travel plans.

Some experts disputed Bolton's optimistic time frame.

 

"It would be physically possible to dismantle the bulk of North Korea’s programs within a year," said Thomas Countryman, the State Department's top arms control officer under President Barack Obama.

 

"I do not believe it would be possible to verify full dismantlement within a year, nor have I yet seen evidence of a firm DPRK decision to undertake full dismantlement."

 

Siegfried Hecker, a nuclear scientist and Stanford University professor, has predicted it would take around 10 years to dismantle and clean up a substantial part of North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear site.

 

South Korea media reported on Sunday that U.S. envoy Sung Kim, the American ambassador to the Philippines, met with North Korean officials at the border on Sunday to coordinate an agenda for Pompeo's next visit to North Korea.

 

U.S. intelligence is not certain how many nuclear warheads North Korea has. The Defense Intelligence Agency is at the high end with an estimate of about 50, but all the agencies believe Pyongyang is concealing an unknown number, especially smaller tactical ones, in caves and other underground facilities around the country.

 

TRUST BUT VERIFY

North Korea agreed at the summit to "work toward denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula," but the joint statement signed by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and U.S. President Donald Trump on June 12 gave no details on how or when Pyongyang might surrender its nuclear weapons.

 

U.S. intelligence agencies believe North Korea has increased production of fuel for nuclear weapons at multiple secret sites in recent months and may try to hide these while seeking concessions in nuclear talks with the United States, NBC News quoted U.S. officials as saying on Friday.

 

The Washington Post reported on Saturday that U.S. intelligence officials have concluded that North Korea does not intend to fully give up its nuclear arsenal and is considering ways to hide the number of weapons it has. It also reported Pyongyang has secret production facilities, according to the latest evidence they have.

 

Bolton refused to comment on intelligence matters but the United States was going into nuclear negotiations aware of Pyongyang's failure to live up to its promises in the past.

 

"We know exactly what the risks are - them using negotiations to drag out the length of time they have to continue their nuclear, chemical, biological weapons programs and ballistic missiles," he said.

 

"There's not any starry-eyed feeling among the group doing this," he said. "We're well aware of what the North Koreans have done in the past."

 

Asia expert Patrick Cronin called the NBC and Washington Post reports "extremely worrisome."

 

Cronin, senior director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, said he had heard from U.S. and South Korea officials that Pompeo was expected to return to Pyongyang at the end of this week and that Sung Kim was working to prepare the way for that trip.

 

The U.S. side was "working to see whether they can prepare for high-level talks between Secretary Pompeo and Kim Jong Un and others in Pyongyang that would be a specific denuclearisation road map, or at least significant dismantlement steps that could fill in a roadmap," he said.

 

Republican Senator Susan Collins said she was troubled by the news reports. "North Korea has a long history of cheating on agreements that it’s made with previous administrations," she said on CNN's "State of the Union." Collins stressed the need for "verifiable, unimpeded, reliable inspections" of the North's weapons programs.

 

Another of Trump's fellow Republicans in the U.S. Senate, Lindsey Graham, echoed the need for skepticism.

 

"If it is true that they are saying one thing and doing another, nobody should be surprised," he said on NBC's "Meet the Press."

 

(Reporting by Doina Chiacu; Additional reporting by David Brunnstrom, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Howard Schneider, John Walcott; Editing by Lisa Shumaker and Nick Zieminski)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2018-07-02

[Expatthailover]

Bolton could really annoy rocket man with this.

First we had the libya model now this.

Should re name him to 'strap on'

Edited July 1, 2018 by Expatthailover

[bristolboy]

Why all the fuss? According to Trump North Korea is no longer a threat and the probleml is solved.

[Emster23]

Share this with N Korea? Get their input? Nah, Trump likes surprises. Didn't he say during election "don't give enemies your plans"?

[Morch]

2 hours ago, bristolboy said:

Why all the fuss? According to Trump North Korea is no longer a threat and the probleml is solved.

 

Backpedaling on this one already:

 

Trump: 'possible' North Korea nuclear deal may not 'work out'

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/01/trump-north-korea-nuclear-deal-may-not-work-out

 

 

[Tug]

Ha ha I’m sure little Kim will get a kick out of this the clown dident get anything in writing and rite off just gave up a big bargaining chip for nada ha ha 

[Tug]

Better stick with locking up toddlers Donald it’s more your speed

[quandow]

Absolute HEIGHT of arrogance, dictating how a sovereign nation should behave.  I believe it's NK's nuclear program that has kept the U.S. military at bay.

[Morch]

17 minutes ago, quandow said:

Absolute HEIGHT of arrogance, dictating how a sovereign nation should behave.  I believe it's NK's nuclear program that has kept the U.S. military at bay.

 

Applying leverage is as old a concept as international relations. The faux indignation when this is applied by some countries is most amusing. Guess it was quite alright for Kim to make threats and try to dictate how neighboring sovereign SK should behave. 

[digger70]

1 hour ago, quandow said:

Absolute HEIGHT of arrogance, dictating how a sovereign nation should behave.  I believe it's NK's nuclear program that has kept the U.S. military at bay.

Agree,,,, Who's going to Disarm the US Nuke power? Kim should Never agree,the US want Full Power over Everyone,,, Stuff Them ,Let Kim keep the US on their toes ,Maybe Putin will help him do that.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

U.S. intelligence agencies believe North Korea has increased production of fuel for nuclear weapons at multiple secret sites in recent months and may try to hide these while seeking concessions in nuclear talks with the United States, NBC News quoted U.S. officials as saying on Friday.

 

The Washington Post reported on Saturday that U.S. intelligence officials have concluded that North Korea does not intend to fully give up its nuclear arsenal and is considering ways to hide the number of weapons it has. It also reported Pyongyang has secret production facilities, according to the latest evidence they have. 

 

Are these the signs of a NK regime that really intends to honor its supposed commitment to denuclearize its nation?  Or at least, the commitment that man child Trump "thinks" he got from NK....  I would say the answer to that is likely unequivocally NO!

 

It's another telling sign that Trump basically got suckered, which is no surprise.  To be fair, nothing wrong with TRYING to get an agreement for NK to denuclearize. But going in basically cold and seemingly with little understanding or appreciation for the long, tortured political/diplomatic history that preceded the recent summit was a recipe for U.S. failure.

 

Yet I don't think that bothers Trump much. All he wanted was the transitory publicity and the appearance of a win, at a time when pretty much everything in his administration is going to hell in a handbasket. Well, he got the appearance of a win, and some temporary fuel for the numbskulls advocating him for a Nobel peace price.  But I think it's pretty clear Kim and NK have other plans.

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Responding to Trump's rosy NK view...
 

Quote

 

Analysts at the CIA and other intelligence agencies don't see it that way, according to more than a dozen American officials who are familiar with their assessments and spoke on the condition of anonymity. They see a regime positioning itself to extract every concession it can from the Trump administration — while clinging to nuclear weapons it believes are essential to survival.

............

While the North Koreans have stopped missile and nuclear tests, "there's no evidence that they are decreasing stockpiles, or that they have stopped their production," said one U.S. official briefed on the latest intelligence. "There is absolutely unequivocal evidence that they are trying to deceive the U.S."

..........................

The intelligence assessment comes on the heels of a report by 38north.org showing that North Korea was continuing to make improvements at its major disclosed nuclear facility at Yongbyon. "The observed activity appears inconsistent with a North Korean intent to abandon its nuclear weapons programs," said Bruce Klingner, a former CIA analyst and North Korea expert at the Heritage Foundation. "There seems little reason to continue expansion plans if the regime intended to dismantle them as would be required under a denuclearization agreement."

 

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/north-korea/north-korea-has-increased-nuclear-production-secret-sites-say-u-n887926

Edited July 2, 2018 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[quandow]

2 hours ago, Morch said:

 

Applying leverage is as old a concept as international relations. The faux indignation when this is applied by some countries is most amusing. Guess it was quite alright for Kim to make threats and try to dictate how neighboring sovereign SK should behave. 

Just cuz it's been around for years doesn't make it right.

[Srikcir]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

"We're well aware of what the North Koreans have done in the past."

 How about NOW:

"North Korea appears to be finalizing the expansion of a key ballistic missile manufacturing site"

This project appears consistent with Kim's annual New Year's speech who ordered his country's ballistic missile and nuclear weapons research sectors to mass produce both items.

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/07/02/asia/north-korea-factory-intl/index.html

8 hours ago, webfact said:

"We know exactly what the risks are - them using negotiations to drag out the length of time they have to continue their nuclear, chemical, biological weapons programs and ballistic missiles,"

So knowing Kim's history, still failed to establish any pre-summit conditions.

Flashback to June 12th when Trump said:

"The Korean conflict "will soon end" ... "Adversaries can indeed become friends,"

Madness isn't apparently from Kim alone.

[bristolboy]

Trump said North Korea was 'no longer a nuclear threat.' His spies disagree.

"Over the weekend, separate reports citing U.S. officials seemed to confirm what so many experts have long feared — that despite the overtures and sunny proclamations made at the Singapore summit between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Pyongyang probably has little interest in dismantling its nuclear program..."

 

"The North Koreans may have stopped missile and nuclear tests in recent months, but as one U.S. official briefed on the latest intelligence told NBC, “there's no evidence that they are decreasing stockpiles, or that they have stopped their production. There is absolutely unequivocal evidence that they are trying to deceive the U.S.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/07/02/trump-said-north-korea-was-no-longer-a-nuclear-threat-his-spies-disagree/?utm_term=.d0f73683c8d3

Edited July 2, 2018 by bristolboy

[JAG]

Let's face it, the US  could probably dismantle the North Korean nuclear programme in about 20 minutes.

 

There would be plenty of fallout, political and radioactive.

 

However that is probably what the end game is going to be. Not withstanding all the bonhomie in Singapore, fat boy will probably try lobbing one at some US territory sooner or later...

Edited July 2, 2018 by JAG

[Morch]

4 hours ago, quandow said:

Just cuz it's been around for years doesn't make it right.

 

And just because you claim it  is wrong doesn't make it so. Either way, you don't seem to object as much when other countries apply the same.

[quandow]

1 hour ago, Morch said:

 

And just because you claim it  is wrong doesn't make it so. Either way, you don't seem to object as much when other countries apply the same.

And just because you like to disagree with what others write doesn't make you right.

[Morch]

10 minutes ago, quandow said:

And just because you like to disagree with what others write doesn't make you right.

 

Still doesn't change the fact that all countries apply leverage, to the best of their ability. Some are more powerful or ruthless than others, that's all. Labeling it as "wrong" or "right" is pretty meaningless without specifics. Considering your faux indignation is reserved for some countries, but giving others a free pass, it is reasonable to assume that your point of view is partisan, rather than principled.

[quandow]

37 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

Still doesn't change the fact that all countries apply leverage, to the best of their ability. Some are more powerful or ruthless than others, that's all. Labeling it as "wrong" or "right" is pretty meaningless without specifics. Considering your faux indignation is reserved for some countries, but giving others a free pass, it is reasonable to assume that your point of view is partisan, rather than principled.

It's specific - Bolton says the U.S. will get the NK nuclear program dismantled within the year. I say it is arrogant to do so, you argue the label is meaningless. There's no misunderstanding this, Bolton is giving orders to a sovereign nation. That is arrogant. You are very artful at turning words around, maybe you should work for the Trump administration. Regardless, this is an arrogant move.

[Morch]

5 minutes ago, quandow said:

It's specific - Bolton says the U.S. will get the NK nuclear program dismantled within the year. I say it is arrogant to do so, you argue the label is meaningless. There's no misunderstanding this, Bolton is giving orders to a sovereign nation. That is arrogant. You are very artful at turning words around, maybe you should work for the Trump administration. Regardless, this is an arrogant move.

 

But not so arrogant when Kim tries the same on SK? Or the US?

 

Other than that, what Bolton actually says is that if NK will cooperate, it's nuclear, chemical, biological and ballistic programs/capabilities could be dismantled within a year. It is not an "order", but a projection as to how long such an effort would take. This projection seems overly optimistic, and out of touch with expert views. Still, not quite what you're on about.

 

[utalkin2me]

Am i the only person on earth who thinks this doesn't make any sense? Dismantling other countries' nuclear capabilities while keeping your own intact... all while you are the only country to have ever used them?!

[Morch]

49 minutes ago, utalkin2me said:

Am i the only person on earth who thinks this doesn't make any sense? Dismantling other countries' nuclear capabilities while keeping your own intact... all while you are the only country to have ever used them?!

 

If, when it comes to nuclear weapons, your point of view is one favoring tit-for-tat then this wouldn't make sense. 

[utalkin2me]

Fill in the blanks with whatever phrase you want:

 

"You should not spit in people's faces, but it is ok for me to spit in people's faces".

 

"You should not litter, but it is ok for me to litter".

 

"You should not have nukes, but it is ok for me to have nukes". 

 

<deleted>! On what planet does that make any sense? But there it is, staring us right in the face. These are sovereign nations we are talking about. 

 

Much less serious, but this sort of reminds me of the banking situation in Thailand. The USA requires Thai banks to report account holdings of foreigners, just because they are inconveinienced if the Thai banks wont do it?! And this gets to the point where many Thai banks wont even accept US passport holders to have bank accounts. <deleted>. Who on earth does the US think they are?

[Morch]

 

@utalkin2me

 

Being a purist is all very nice, but not always the best approach to deal with complex issues. May want to read up on the NPT for some background. All this faux indignation is somehow missing when NK makes its own demands and threats, even with regard to non-nuclear military issues. But guess that's acceptable - even when directed at sovereign countries.

Edited July 3, 2018 by Morch

[utalkin2me]

On 7/2/2018 at 8:01 PM, Morch said:

 

@utalkin2me

 

Being a purist is all very nice, but not always the best approach to deal with complex issues. May want to read up on the NPT for some background. All this faux indignation is somehow missing when NK makes its own demands and threats, even with regard to non-nuclear military issues. But guess that's acceptable - even when directed at sovereign countries.

Maybe you and the rest if the world needs to read up? The USA is the only nation to have used a nuclear weapon, and they are the ones who will decide if others use have them or not? 

 

It is not complex at all. It is so simple. It is only complex if you are biased. What would be wrong with "we will dismantle if you stop development?".... what only bloody earth would be wrong or unfair with that? There is simply no answer to that question. To simplify things, it is clear the US want to "have its cake and eat it too". The problem is, this is for some reason acceptable behavior for them, but somehow it isn't for the entire rest of humanity. Like why can't Russia, or any country, get exactly what they want, and lose nothing? Umm, because it foes not work that way, unless you are American I suppose. 

Edited July 5, 2018 by utalkin2me

[bristolboy]

Here's a quote about the Singapore meeting from Nicolas Eberstadt who wrote the article for the National Review from which this is excerpted :

Kim Wins in Singapore

"Indeed, it is hard to think of any greater diplomatic coup for the North Korean regime since 1950, when missions to Moscow by “Great Leader” Kim Il-sung (grandfather to the current “Dear Respected Leader”) secured Stalin’s permission for a surprise attack on South Korea.

With a single stroke in Singapore, Kim Jong-un apparently defanged President Donald Trump, North Korea’s most formidable American opponent in the post–Cold War era; consolidated the recent advances in the DPRK’s nuke and missile programs; and positioned North Korea to reap even greater gains from its high-tension, long-term game plan in the months and years ahead. The Singapore summit, in other words, looks to have been a signal step toward making the world safe for Kim Jong-un and his regime."

https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2018/07/09/kim-jong-un-singapore-summit-north-korea-wins/

 

[Morch]

1 hour ago, utalkin2me said:

Maybe you and the rest if the world needs to read up? The USA is the only nation to have used a nuclear weapon, and they are the ones who will decide if others use have them or not? 

 

It is not complex at all. It is so simple. It is only complex if you are biased. What would be wrong with "we will dismantle if you stop development?".... what only bloody earth would be wrong or unfair with that? There is simply no answer to that question. To simplify things, it is clear the US want to "have its cake and eat it too". The problem is, this is for some reason acceptable behavior for them, but somehow it isn't for the entire rest of humanity. Like why can't Russia, or any country, get exactly what they want, and lose nothing? Umm, because it foes not work that way, unless you are American I suppose. 

 

Maybe you should spend more time reading up on what you post about. The NPT isn't "the US deciding". And most countries do not support NK's (or for that matter, any country's) quest for military nuclear capability. This stems from a point of view which acknowledges that having more of nuclear weapons around isn't a good idea, no matter how some try to spin it, and no matter what "justice" or "fairness" claims are made.

 

The NPT (and other agreements) recognize reality in that some countries already have military nuclear capability and stockpiles of nuclear weapons. Instead of subscribing to a purist, simplistic all-or-nothing position such as yours, this point of view seeks to deal with making the issue worse, rather than putting all such efforts on hold until a perfect solution is achieved.

 

Notably the US isn't the only country possessing military nuclear capability, but somehow you seem to focus solely on the US. But do go on about "bias", by all means. Do you see Russia letting go of its own nuclear weapons? China?

 

 

[Srikcir]

31 minutes ago, Morch said:

Do you see Russia letting go of its own nuclear weapons? China?

As well as India, UK, France, Pakistan and India? In a way Pakistan's nuclear capability (I'm sure in their minds) stands as the only deterrent against the larger India military to counter India's projection of foreign diplomacy. North Korean leadership might see that as analogous to its own relationship with a nuclear US that consistently expresses regime change in North Korea.

[Morch]

20 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

As well as India, UK, France, Pakistan and India? In a way Pakistan's nuclear capability (I'm sure in their minds) stands as the only deterrent against the larger India military to counter India's projection of foreign diplomacy. North Korean leadership might see that as analogous to its own relationship with a nuclear US that consistently expresses regime change in North Korea.

 

The point made was that countries already possessing military nuclear capability (or rather, coupled with credible delivery systems) are not about to disarm, and it is very hard to make them do so. The poster I replied to tries to spin this as a US thing, which it isn't.