SURVEY: Tariffs -- Good or Bad?

ExpatOilWorker · July 23, 2018

9 hours ago, bendejo said:

Alcoa Aluminum, a US corporation, got slaughtered in the stock market a few days ago, said the tariffs have already cost them $15 million, and will cost then app. $150 million per year. Then this morning I saw this:

http://thehill.com/policy/finance/398173-mnuchin-us-open-to-removing-russian-aluminum-producer-from-sanctions-list

NOTE: The Hill is very much right-wing

A few weeks ago he said "we're going to save some jobs in China" by removing US sanction against ZTE. Huh? And now US Congress is bending over for him and giving it the ok.

I think "who's side is this guy on?" is a legitimate question. It seems he's trying to shut the US down. If I hated the US I would be a DT supporter.

It is easy to focus on western companies that have outspoken CEOs that are more than willing to share information with the press. But how about the Chinese livestock farmers in a remote corner of China?

Soya beans suddenly cost him 10% more, ohhh no wait 15% more because the Yuan just dropped 5%. While it take 1 ton of steel to build a 1 ton car, it takes 3 tons of soya beans to make 1 ton of pork.

Joe consumer in America can just buy an Amarican made truck or even a small truck to match his budget. Ching consumer in China just can't eat 15% less if he want to sleep on a full stomach.

lapamita · July 23, 2018

positive archiments of trump

1. tax reform

Us companys transferd billions of usd, back home, from overseas holdings

-waiting for result of reform-- bcs money still not invested and a lot used for dividens and sharebuybacks//question //inlater cycle they will invest this in

longstanding investments within the US???

2. Tax on goods

European companys have already anounced billions of usd investments in factorys within the us,more would follow,if traiffs imosed at longer term and economy stable in the us

Reducing impalances in trade ..still in question,waiting for results,in my opinion the results will be positive

allok, but we have to wait and see, if all this measures will help the poorer and lower middleclass, to more incomming and more jobs, this still in question, i not see rising wages and better social standards until now. Trump is doing alot in economy and foreign policies, i missing the part doing something for the normal american.

But in his mind is, we help the industrials and economy ,so this will help at the end the normal american........... there is still no answer on this experiment

i hope it goes well.............

FAct is : open and liberal, free market countrys without barriers will perform much better than their counterparts..... but only if all play with the rules. China today is a industrial state and they have to comply with the rules of fair trade, but they dont... look at chinese import tarifs compare to us or eu. any talk about that was ending without result.

still the us have the lowest import tariffs within the major countrys,so why complain trump to change that

i would be more happy if all trade barriers all over the world go away,and we would have a free trade world, that would benefit all at the end, but thats not possible due to unfair practices in many countrys

ExpatOilWorker · July 23, 2018

38 minutes ago, lapamita said:

in the first run yes

due to imbalance he would always win on impossed tariffs on chinese goods

but second step

the chinese could implant a continus devaluation of the yuan, in a cycle where the usd index even going up. this would offset the effect of the traiffs

and what follows than?? world rezession,stocks crashing,...????

who knows, but trump is right, its impossible for the us to survive without a manufacturing sector ( 16% part of BIP only compared to 70% in the 70s)

but very late, the last goverments a decade ago, has to sop this trend already, but they done nothing.

the world was always in anger to the us, bcs living on depts, buying goods on depts from foreigncountrys..ja trump will stop it,and the world fall into fear...hey world what you want ???????????

better a trump, and his experiments, and his direct art of doing something, than all teh rest of consens politicans before

if the end is good or bad, not sure, but he is doing something and trying to change something , what him belive its the best for the country. i would be happy he archive some goals

If they do that, they will soon end up like Venezuela.

You remember the riots in Indonesia and trucker strikes in Brazil?

As China devaluates the Yuan fuels cost goes up and that is not very popular.

Edited July 23, 2018 by ExpatOilWorker

lapamita · July 23, 2018

10 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

The decline of manufacturing as share of the economy of highly developed nations is a worldwide phenomenon. Even in Germany, with its huge export business, manufacturing constitutes only 20.5 percent of GDP.

https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/manufacturing-value-added-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html

yes thats right and as well a major problem for eu countrys. falling wages and high youth unimloyment, a lost generation in southern countrys. bcs industrial jobs and low skilled work falling away.

thats a phenomen made by our politicians to alloud unfair trade practice and of no or minimal support for small inustrial manufacturing companys.

simmilar to the us

so what it tells us

bristolboy · July 23, 2018

1 minute ago, lapamita said:

yes thats right and as well a major problem for eu countrys. falling wages and high youth unimloyment, a lost generation in southern countrys. bcs industrial jobs and low skilled work falling away.

thats a phenomen made by our politicians to alloud unfair trade practice and of no or minimal support for small inustrial manufacturing companys.

simmilar to the us

so what it tells us

Are wages falling in the Northern European countries? Is unemployment growing there? Was the great recession caused by a decline in manufacturing?

In fact, manufacturing employment will continue to decline because of continued automation and robotics. In fact, IT is even making inroads into such non manufacturing spheres as proofreading. The fact is that it's mostly a problem of wealth distribution. Those nations that provide decent services to their people have much less problem in relation to their people than those that neglect them. In the latter camp, the USA and the UK come to mind.

lapamita · July 23, 2018

3 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Are wages falling in the Northern European countries? Is unemployment growing there? Was the great recession caused by a decline in manufacturing?

Yes , wages declinded, and labour laws changed what lead to borrowing workers and limited time jobs, mini jobs and so on.

today in germany we have 8 million living on social secuity wellfare ( incl 1million pensioners) but we have only 2,xx million people unemployed ???!!???

over 4million there slary is not enough and is bellow social wellfare benefits

wages from 2000 to 2012 increased by 27% before tax for the lower 80% of incommers ( thats negative after tax and inflation) but for the Top20 incommers it increased 157% ..the number tells all, and it would be simmilar in the us i think

No the turmoil 2008 was not caused by a recession, it was caused by the finacial mafia.

and i , taking a very conservative stance against china. their econommy is based on steeling technology and unfair practices in trade,crimminal copyrights isssues and so on. at themonet it want totransform it self to a industrial country and try to reduce this issues. i not see china as a leading world country in the future, due to some circumstances.

I hate china, for wasting the world with dirty shit products ( normaly we have to imposs a waste tax on chinese plastic imports for short live products)

even in my flat i deuce where ever i can producst from china, and already at least 80% are non chinese manufactured ( except some spare parts inside the goods). i am feed up from all this shit products who broke after some days.

yesterday i just bought a pan ......... made in france 100 $but better than 30 or 40 for a non lasting low quality product of china. i have a lot things older than 10years in my flat,but not one is from china, bcs they all broke quick

i very look for the brands since 5 years , and sill from day to day more

korkenzieher · July 23, 2018

Tariffs are not a uniform thing - there's aspects of dumping, unfair competition, intellectual property and so on but...

I think one thing which hasn't been widely appreciated is the extent to which globalisation has powered corporate profit by leveraging the differences in living standards of the global poor. The flip side of this - the costs - social, welfare and tax-base loss, have almost universally been picked up by the remaining tax payers of those countries who have exported jobs. In part this is as much due to the inability of countries to spiral their working classes up the value chain, as it is due to those growing states copying the process themselves and taking on increasingly complex outsourced work.

Effectively then, tariffs are the only way to say to corporations "if you are simply exporting jobs to boost profit - with the intention of selling the same product into the same market, you will not profit by it".

Ironically, this seems to suggest that the Anarchists - who were originally against globalisation, but now favour it because 'you know, Trump...', may have been right first time around.

ExpatOilWorker · July 23, 2018

13 minutes ago, lapamita said:

Yes , wages declinded, and labour laws changed what lead to borrowing workers and limited time jobs, mini jobs and so on.

today in germany we have 8 million living on social secuity wellfare ( incl 1million pensioners) but we have only 2,xx million people unemployed ???!!???

over 4million there slary is not enough and is bellow social wellfare benefits

wages from 2000 to 2012 increased by 27% before tax for the lower 80% of incommers ( thats negative after tax and inflation) but for the Top20 incommers it increased 157% ..the number tells all, and it would be simmilar in the us i think

No the turmoil 2008 was not caused by a recession, it was caused by the finacial mafia.

and i , taking a very conservative stance against china. their econommy is based on steeling technology and unfair practices in trade,crimminal copyrights isssues and so on. at themonet it want totransform it self to a industrial country and try to reduce this issues. i not see china as a leading world country in the future, due to some circumstances.

I hate china, for wasting the world with dirty shit products ( normaly we have to imposs a waste tax on chinese plastic imports for short live products)

even in my flat i deuce where ever i can producst from china, and already at least 80% are non chinese manufactured ( except some spare parts inside the goods). i am feed up from all this shit products who broke after some days.

yesterday i just bought a pan ......... made in france 100 $but better than 30 or 40 for a non lasting low quality product of china. i have a lot things older than 10years in my flat,but not one is from china, bcs they all broke quick

i very look for the brands since 5 years , and sill from day to day more

That is actually a very good idea.

riclag · July 23, 2018

$550 billion TD with the Chinese! Time to right side this ship ,WTO,which lends to the question!

Why is the U.S. accusing China of stealing intellectual property, Costing Billions of Dollars.

Edited July 23, 2018 by riclag

FritsSikkink · July 24, 2018

It will be good for Thailand:

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade-tensions/Bangkok-eyes-export-boost-from-US-China-trade-war?utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=refferal&utm_campaign=BA TH RSS&utm_term={campaign_id}&utm_content=RSS

The Thai government has projected annual export growth of 8% for 2018, after strong global demand lifted its exports to a record high of $236 billion in 2017. Bangkok now expects exports to grow even more, believing that the latest trade tensions between Washington and Beijing will likely create a greater market share for Thai food in supermarkets in both the U.S. and China.

$236 billion, makes the expats who threaten to go live in Cambodia and spend their money there look a bit silly.

observer90210 · July 24, 2018

In the current trend of globalisation, it's lex talionis and tit for tat that rules, when it comes to trade and tax agreements. On the other hand a very low $ does keep oil prices under control so what one can loose on one side, one does gain it back.

I may get bashed by all the Gordon Gecko's of the forum, but please...don't be to harsh ! ?

Berkshire · July 24, 2018

On 7/22/2018 at 2:05 PM, quandow said:

This is FAR too complex an issue to answer with a simple "yes" or "no."

If you're referring to tariffs the way TRUMP applies them with such braggadocio, then HELL yes they're harmful!

Exactly. It is complex, way beyond the understanding of most Trump supporters. For example:

--Tariffs on Solar cells. May help manufacturers, but installers (majority of jobs in the US) will be hurt by increasing prices.

--Tariffs on steel. May help steel manufacturers, but companies that use steel in production (majority of jobs in the US), from autos to soda, will be hurt.

And so on. This doesn't even factor in retaliatory tariffs on US goods, not to mention increased prices for consumers.

Trump is an idiot. Tariffs have been tried before--usually for political reasons--and the negatives almost always outweighs the positive.

Spidey · July 24, 2018

1 hour ago, observer90210 said:

I may get bashed by all the Gordon Gecko's of the forum, but please...don't be to harsh

What's with all the gecko bashing? Gordon the Gecko lives inside the clock on my patio, a nicer gecko I've yet to meet.

observer90210 · July 24, 2018

18 minutes ago, Spidey said:

What's with all the gecko bashing? Gordon the Gecko lives inside the clock on my patio, a nicer gecko I've yet to meet.

Google will be thou salvation and thy answers ! ?

pegman · July 24, 2018

Trump now giving away $12,000,000,000.00 of taxpayer cash for farm welfare cheques to cover for his blunder. Wait for when the auto sector gets hit in the fall. No way in hell consumers are going to buy cars and trucks at inflated prices when they know the tariffs are temporary. Trump will be known as the King of Federal Deficits. This guy loves to borrow but not paying back.

JeffreyO · July 24, 2018

On 7/22/2018 at 12:05 AM, bizboi said:

….and if theres any problems with the US economy in the next 500 years its Trumps fault right??? Oh and by the way “Obamacare” reference was hysterical!!! Funny how Democrats are proving to be the ones least likely to accept democracy!!

Wait, what? Estimates of initial economic impact occur 4-6 years after the initial presidency. Of course, there are factors beyond that.

For example, the deep dive of the economy before/during the early Obama years were a case of the banks using subprime loans and the presidency setting no rules on that, now Trump is rolling those back. Surely those will raise the economy until they collapse again, just not in his presidency...

pegman · July 24, 2018

1 hour ago, JeffreyO said:

Wait, what? Estimates of initial economic impact occur 4-6 years after the initial presidency. Of course, there are factors beyond that.

For example, the deep dive of the economy before/during the early Obama years were a case of the banks using subprime loans and the presidency setting no rules on that, now Trump is rolling those back. Surely those will raise the economy until they collapse again, just not in his presidency...

Yup, classic pump and dump taking place right now. Trump went bankrupt 6x. What could possibly go wrong?

https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/jun/21/hillary-clinton/yep-donald-trumps-companies-have-declared-bankrupt/

Credo · July 25, 2018

Administration announces $12 billion in aid to farmers hurt by Trump's trade war

WASHINGTON — The federal government will dole out up to $12 billion in "temporary relief" to struggling farmers who have been hurt by President Donald Trump's tariffs and trade war, the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced Tuesday.

Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue told reporters the total amount was "in line" with the estimated impact from retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural exports.

The aid, which will be awarded to soybean, cotton, dairy, corn and hog farmers, as well as others, is scheduled to go into effect around Labor Day, officials said. Lawmakers from both parties, however, ripped the program, with many bashing it as another negative consequence of the president's trade actions.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/administration-offer-billions-aid-farmers-hurt-trump-s-trade-war-n894066?cid=sm_npd_nn_fb_ma

Silurian · July 25, 2018

4 minutes ago, Credo said:

Administration announces $12 billion in aid to farmers hurt by Trump's trade war

WASHINGTON — The federal government will dole out up to $12 billion in "temporary relief" to struggling farmers who have been hurt by President Donald Trump's tariffs and trade war, the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced Tuesday.

Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue told reporters the total amount was "in line" with the estimated impact from retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural exports.

The aid, which will be awarded to soybean, cotton, dairy, corn and hog farmers, as well as others, is scheduled to go into effect around Labor Day, officials said. Lawmakers from both parties, however, ripped the program, with many bashing it as another negative consequence of the president's trade actions.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/administration-offer-billions-aid-farmers-hurt-trump-s-trade-war-n894066?cid=sm_npd_nn_fb_ma

They will need to change the party from Republican to Socialist Republican! $12 billion dollars are welfare relief to farmers due to a tariff plan that was pulled out of the Reality TV Con Artist's butt. Since there was absolutely no forethought gone into the trade war, Traitor Trump has to try to shore up his farmer base by buying them out with $12 billion dollars of assistance.

Fellow Republicans are spouting off but not backing their words with any actions. Once again, they are bending over and taking it from behind as they see their party yet again being torn apart by a con artist.

Republicans pan Trump's $12 billion tariff relief for farmers as Corporate Welfare

Quote

Trump’s trade policy “is becoming more and more like a Soviet-type of economy here,” Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) told reporters on Capitol Hill.

Srikcir · July 25, 2018

58 minutes ago, Silurian said:

$12 billion dollars are welfare relief to farmers

There is a deeper irony.

The $12 billion is a price subsidy to protect the farmers from lower farm product prices resulting from Trump's Tariff War:

1) This additional subsidy (current subsidies already in place providing fair trade) allegedly provides additional economic relief to farmers that runs counter to Trump's claim that higher tariffs are required for national security. This additional subsidy in effect establishes an economic policy that violates the US-created World Trade Organizations regulations that were legislatively agreed to by the US.
2) This kind of product subsidy is the very foundation of Trump's tariff war with Canada! Trump claims (contrary to Canada's position) that Canada is unfairly subsidizing the cost of its exports to the US (ie., softwood) to provide cheaper products into the American market than what American manufacturers can sell.
3) US farmers don't want subsidies! They need free trade for market access. One such example is the Trans-Pacific Partnership created by POTUS Obama that would have expanded their market access immediately to one-third the world's market. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/farmers-dont-need-subsidies-they-need-free-trade But Trump pulled out of TPP in one of his earliest Presidential Orders.

Trump's foreign trade policy is like the lifeguard that throws a person who can't swim into the deepest part of a pool. Then saves them by throwing in a life bouy (made in China).

Berkshire · July 25, 2018

1 hour ago, Credo said:

Administration announces $12 billion in aid to farmers hurt by Trump's trade war

WASHINGTON — The federal government will dole out up to $12 billion in "temporary relief" to struggling farmers who have been hurt by President Donald Trump's tariffs and trade war, the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced Tuesday.

Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue told reporters the total amount was "in line" with the estimated impact from retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural exports.

The aid, which will be awarded to soybean, cotton, dairy, corn and hog farmers, as well as others, is scheduled to go into effect around Labor Day, officials said. Lawmakers from both parties, however, ripped the program, with many bashing it as another negative consequence of the president's trade actions.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/administration-offer-billions-aid-farmers-hurt-trump-s-trade-war-n894066?cid=sm_npd_nn_fb_ma

The stupidity of Trump knows no bounds. So Trump is going to use taxpayer money to subsidize farmers that are hurt by HIS policies. Freakin welfare. Even Republicans are revolting....

[“You have a terrible policy that sends farmers to the poorhouse, and then you put them on welfare, and we borrow the money from other countries,” Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., told reporters in Washington Tuesday. “It’s hard to believe there isn’t an outright revolt right now in Congress.”

“What about the manufacturing sector? What about the energy sector? The oil and gas industries?” Murkowski said Tuesday. “Where do you draw the line? I’ve got some real concerns.]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/republicans-denounce-trump-plan-welfare-farmers-hit-tariffs-205952800.html

Srikcir · July 25, 2018

17 hours ago, Credo said:

Lawmakers from both parties, however, ripped the program, with many bashing it as another negative consequence of the president's trade actions.

Notably Senator (R) Ben Sasse Nebraska:

“This trade war is cutting the legs out from under farmers and the White House’s ‘plan’ is to spend $12 billion on gold crutches,"
"America’s farmers don’t want to be paid to lose — they want to win by feeding the world. This administration’s tariffs and bailouts aren’t going to make America great again, they’re just going to make it 1929 again,”

To make the $12 billion payment, Trump will have to borrow the funds from the U.S. Treasury through the Commodity Credit Corp. (that's more debt) There's nothing Congress can do about such action. But note that the seafood (ie., Alaska, New England) and energy sectors are not considered "farmers" and not eligible for the bailout.

Senator (R) Corker Tennessee summed it up best:

"the administration was offering welfare to farmers to solve a problem they themselves created."

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/24/keygop-senators-rip-trumps-incoherent-farm-bailout.html

Another Trump Zero Tolerance policy?

Kelsall · July 27, 2018

On 7/22/2018 at 4:16 PM, stevenl said:

Is that independent thinking or are you following Trump?

GDP 4.1%

Game, set, match.

Opl · July 30, 2018

"Workers, farmers, business people, and others who thought Trump would be their champion now find he is happy to sacrifice them in pursuit of his trade mania. The president believes that hitting other countries with tariffs will force them to open their markets or sell less here. Political leaders don't readily capitulate to the demands of a foreign president, particularly one as widely unpopular as Trump. They know that if they cave in this time, he will be back next week with more demands."

https://reason.com/archives/2018/07/26/why-trump-supporters-will-regret-his-tra

rickudon · July 30, 2018

Globalisation has allowed producers to produce their goods wherever it is cheapest to do so. Now, theoretically this means that the consumer benefits as what he buys is cheaper. But that only works if he has a decent income.

Globalisation has benefited first and foremost large companies and their shareholders,which is why inequality has increased in so many countries. Trying to coerce countries into allowing free trade will just make that worse. Tariffs are good if they help protect your producers to supply your internal market, particularly if you are a small country. But if you do this just to help bolster how much you make from your trading partners, do not expect it to go well.

Trump is not just bullying China and the EU, but many other smaller countries - including small African countries, because he considers their tariffs 'unfair'. But if US imports to your country would cripple your developing industries, what would you do?

Modest tariffs have a place, but punitive ones cause resentment, and 'free trade' does NOT benefit many smaller, developing countries.

Opl · July 31, 2018

"The U.S. Chamber crunched the numbers to determine how much it would cost American taxpayers to extend the same relative level of financial aid the administration has proposed for farmers to other U.S. industries that have been negatively affected by retaliatory tariffs. "

https://www.uschamber.com/series/above-the-fold/slippery-39-billion-slope-new-data-analysis-makes-case-trade-not-aid

JestSetter · July 31, 2018

I only trust Nobel laureate economists. Here is one. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-loses-trade-war-with-china-by-joseph-e--stiglitz-2018-07

Here is an excerpt:

Edited July 31, 2018 by JestSetter

JestSetter · July 31, 2018

On 7/28/2018 at 3:12 AM, Kelsall said:

GDP 4.1%

Game, set, match.

Not so fast!

Obama had 8 quarterly GDP growth rates of 2% and more AND 5 around 4%+ AND 1 around 5%: http://fortune.com/2017/08/30/donald-trump-springfield-mo-3-gdp/

Why are you taking all of the hype of Trump without checking to see if what he says is true? Do you believe the car salesman who says that the price of the car will be higher tomorrow?

bristolboy · July 31, 2018

On 7/28/2018 at 3:12 AM, Kelsall said:

GDP 4.1%

Game, set, match.

Nonsense. As much as 1 percent of that figure is due to forward sales of agricultural products, particularly soybeans to get ahead of the trade embargo. In addition the Trump administration has greatly increased the budget deficit. Naturally, that's going to have a stimulative effect on the economy. But it makes nothing but bad sense to increase budget deficits in an economy that has recovered from the Great Recession. In fact, not only is the budget deficit going to be much greater than the Trump administration predicted, but Nick Mulvaney's OMB now predicts that deficits are going to be even greater than those predicted by the Congressional Budget Office. Remember back when Mulvaney was criticizing the CBO for being too pessimistic about budget deficits?

Opl · August 2, 2018

" American-made cars are among the hardest hit products in the U.S.-China trade war, facing a 40% import tariff in China, and some automakers are weathering the storm by doubling down on Chinese operations. BMW expects a 5–10% bump in Chinese sales this year, despite tariffs, because it has shifted manufacturing to Asia"

https://www.axios.com/automakers-china-factory-electric-vehicles-bmw-tesla-volkswagen-9b97880f-dc1e-4f94-bfb2-0819a6f90ff7.html

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SURVEY: Tariffs -- Good or Bad?