Baht expected to strengthen by year-end

[elephant45]

every time i read these things the opposite seems to happen.

[MaxYakov]

18 hours ago, ratcatcher said:

At 32.5 baht per $US, the baht has strengthened The $US weakens. At least that's what I understand to be the case and I am not an economist..

IMHO, one doesn't have to be an economist to understand currency conversions. One might have to be an economist to understand why one currency weakens or strengthens w/r another (and which direction and how far in the future!). An Ouiji board, roulette wheel or tea leave reading my be an even better way than understanding economics (or trying to predict what kind of shenanigans Trump is going to be getting up to).

 

The one thing I know is that if the baht strengthens by 4 baht/dollar and I convert $1,500 USD/month to baht, I lose 6,000 baht in available disposable (pardon the expression) spending baht, which would have purchased a fair amount of ... whatever or whomever I'm into that month. Don't have to be an economist to know that. I was hoping it would make it to 34/USD before reversing its current weakening trend (33.27/USD Bangkok Bank best rate last few days).

Edited July 24, 2018 by MaxYakov

[Skeptic7]

43 minutes ago, elephant45 said:

every time i read these things the opposite seems to happen.

True dat...and hoping same this time! 

[canuckamuck]

The Thai Baht has been fairly steady seemingly against all odds for many years now. This is because although the man on the street sees instability and trouble boiling with every turn of the political circus. The really big money knows that authoritarianism works for Asians and particularly Thais, and that the Thais are unlikely to do anything to change the status quo.

[Bkkthebest]

19 hours ago, BestB said:

The baht would strengthen to Bt32.5 per US dollar from the current level of Bt33.5 per dollar by the end of the year, he said.

 

strengthen or weaken? From 33.5 to 32.5

If they put it as " The baht would strengthen against the US dollar from Bt33.5 to Bt32.5." I presume you would understand it clearer.

[Bangkok Barry]

He forgot to factor in the effect of the street riots when political campaigning gets underway.

[spidermike007]

On 7/23/2018 at 1:22 PM, BestB said:

The baht would strengthen to Bt32.5 per US dollar from the current level of Bt33.5 per dollar by the end of the year, he said.

 

strengthen or weaken? From 33.5 to 32.5

That is strengthen. If you get less baht per pound of dollar, the baht is stronger. But, I do not see this happening. I predict it will drop to 34.50 by years end.

[MaxYakov]

13 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

That is strengthen. If you get less baht per pound of dollar, the baht is stronger. But, I do not see this happening. I predict it will drop to 34.50 by years end.

What do you base your prediction on and is it on the pound or the dollar? It would be nice and would help my cash flow if it went > 34 per USD. It fell slightly today from 33.27 to 33.18 (Bangkok Bank TT USD rate)

Edited July 25, 2018 by MaxYakov

[spidermike007]

47 minutes ago, MaxYakov said:

What do you base your prediction on and is it on the pound or the dollar? It would be nice and would help my cash flow if it went > 34 per USD. It fell slightly today from 33.27 to 33.18 (Bangkok Bank TT USD rate)

Additional interest rates by the fed. More outflows from emerging markets. Continued weakness in the Thai economy due to extreme incompetence. Continued fallout over the Phuket tragedy, which is getting alot of press in China and is probably leading to other critiques of Thai travel. 

 

Lastly, I believe the central bank already believes the baht is still overinflated. And to boost exports, with the tariffs and other negative factors impacting Thailand, they will make an effort to keep the baht stable, or to depreciate it a bit more.