UK voters should make final Brexit decision if talks with EU collapse: poll

[tebee]

40 minutes ago, Grouse said:

....

 

Raab clarifies everything ????

Rabb clarifies the he and the rest of the Government have no idea whatsoever !

 

I've not seen the #3Blokes vids you've indirectly pointed me at - they are "interesting"...

 

 

[Orac]

Things not going swimmingly at WTO apparently

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-09/u-s-is-said-to-mull-blocking-u-k-from-global-procurement-pact


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[Guest]

I like this series of Brexit videos. Explaining different deal and situations of Brexit in neutral terms. 

 

One point, which has not been talked here:

UK is copying EU schedule, which is probably going to be challenged by other countries around the world. This is because EU had a lot of negotiation power, which other countries had to follow. UK no longer have that power by itself. 

 

Trade After Hard Brexit: WTO Rules Explained

 

[melvinmelvin]

21 minutes ago, Orac said:

Things not going swimmingly at WTO apparently

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-09/u-s-is-said-to-mull-blocking-u-k-from-global-procurement-pact


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well, UK trade negotiators must learn to swim better, not tricky, WTO is on the beach of Lac Leman.

 

surprises me no end that UK has not, long ago, started to sort out her WTO stuff,

as far as I can remember she hasn't even asked

EU if she may do so during the period leading up to Brexit, would be kinda hard for EU to refuse that

 

[melvinmelvin]

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/09/ignorance-is-bliss-for-the-brexit-secretary#comments

 

Raab clarifies everything ????

somebody on this thread talked about omni shambles / not a bad description

 

seems to be a total lack of glue in this Brexit effort

no glue in the party having the PM

no glue in parliament

no glue in cabinet

 

chicken running around shouting individually

 

glueless effort

 

[Stupooey]

20 hours ago, 7by7 said:

What about Wales?

 

Wales voted Remain as well; by a, slightly, larger margin than England.

 

I wondered about the reason for that myself, and came to the conclusion that the Welsh vote was skewed by the comparatively high number of English-born residents (22% of the population). Many of these are retirees, who would be expected to have mainly voted Leave.

[Orac]

well, UK trade negotiators must learn to swim better, not tricky, WTO is on the beach of Lac Leman.
 
surprises me no end that UK has not, long ago, started to sort out her WTO stuff,
as far as I can remember she hasn't even asked
EU if she may do so during the period leading up to Brexit, would be kinda hard for EU to refuse that
 

There are 20 official objections on our WTO submission regarding tariff quotas as well so far.

https://iegpolicy.agribusinessintelligence.informa.com/PL217932/WTO-members-pile-into-UKEU-proposal-for-splitting-tariff-quotas-after-Brexit



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[tebee]

14 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

somebody on this thread talked about omni shambles / not a bad description

 

seems to be a total lack of glue in this Brexit effort

no glue in the party having the PM

no glue in parliament

no glue in cabinet

 

chicken running around shouting individually

 

glueless effort

 

This is the problem - we are heading towards a major constitutional change which will affect almost every aspect of life in the UK, without any idea of how to implement it and without any consensus about how we should proceed or even the direction we should be heading.

 

Worse still, because of this, we have not started to implement the procedures that will be needed in 6 months time or construct the infrastructure to cope with it.

 

At the moment the train is headed  in the direction of a chaotic nodeal brexit, but we are woefully unprepared for that. The only likely available alternative destinations are a brexit in name only or just abandon the whole silly idea.     

Edited October 10, 2018 by tebee

[Stupooey]

16 hours ago, billd766 said:

 

Neither is the one which is closing.

 

At least the TPP will not be laying down any laws that the UK MUST obey.

 

The TPP consists of  Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam as the USA has withdrawn.

 

If /when we sign up with them and wish to do a deal with Canada for example it will not take 10 years as it has in the EU.

 

We will not cease trading with the EU, nor they with us.

 

Think positively like a Brexiteer, instead of negatively like a Remainer.

 

Surely the TPP is an attempt to form a trading alliance between countries on the Pacific Rim (the name Trans Pacific Partnership rather gives it away), which makes logistical sense. A country on the other side of the world joining would not. Perhaps Abe's lingua was firmly planted in his buccal cavity.

[Stupooey]

16 hours ago, billd766 said:

 

Be like Saul on the road to Tarsus and join us Brexiteers. Think positive.

 

If you mean Saul on the road to Damascus, I would need to be blinded for more than three days to see the benefits of Brexit!

[Stupooey]

16 hours ago, vinny41 said:

17,410,742 people voted to leave in the EU eu_referendum the largest number of people in any Vote in the UK Every household received a leaflet from the Goverment that clearly stated if you vote leave the UK would be leaving both the single market and the Custom Union, If Labour was to state that under a Labour Goverment the UK would stay in the single market and custom Union or hold a 2nd  referendum with an option to remain on the voting paper they stand to lose potential 5.1 million Labour voters 

that voted to leave.

 

Any comment about the Leave vote being the largest ever UK vote is rather put into perspective when you realise that the Remain vote was the second largest. 

Regarding the Single Market and the Customs Union, the Government leaflet didn't reject membership per se, it just pointed out the downside of taking advantage of them from outside the EU. I actually believe the leaflet did more harm than good to the Remain cause, as it ensured which way the anti-Government vote would go.

[tebee]

Interesting theory.

 

 

[RuamRudy]

12 minutes ago, tebee said:

Interesting theory.

 

 

As Nicola Sturgeon said at the close of SNP conference, "Never has so much been lost by so many, to satisfy so few."

[billd766]

2 hours ago, Orac said:

Things not going swimmingly at WTO apparently

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-09/u-s-is-said-to-mull-blocking-u-k-from-global-procurement-pact


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Nothing like helping out your friends and allies is there? And this is nothing like it either.

 

What a change from the end of August.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/aug/30/trump-world-trade-organization-tariffs-stock-market

 

Donald Trump has threatened to pull the United States out of the World Trade Organization if it doesn’t “shape up” and treat the US better. The US president issued the threat against the international trade body during an interview with Bloomberg news.

“If they don’t shape up, I would withdraw from the WTO,” Trump said, making public a proposal he has reportedly made to top aides in the past.

According to Axios, Trump expressed consternation that the US was still a part of the global trade body.

A source told Axios the president had often made comments like: “I don’t know why we’re in it. The WTO is designed by the rest of the world to screw the United States.”

The treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, later dismissed the idea as “an exaggeration”, while the commerce secretary, Wilbur Ross, said in July he considered talk of withdrawing from the WTO “a little premature”.

Trump’s administration has sought help from the WTO over retaliatory tariffs from China, the European Union, Canada, Mexico and Turkey, arguing the trade organization’s rules made the measures illegal.

[billd766]

55 minutes ago, Stupooey said:

 

Surely the TPP is an attempt to form a trading alliance between countries on the Pacific Rim (the name Trans Pacific Partnership rather gives it away), which makes logistical sense. A country on the other side of the world joining would not. Perhaps Abe's lingua was firmly planted in his buccal cavity.

 

You do realise that the UK and the EU both deal with members of the TPP on a daily basis don't you?

 

The UK dealt with many of those countries before we joined the EU and there is no reason to suppose that we won't deal with them after Brexit.

[billd766]

35 minutes ago, Stupooey said:

 

Any comment about the Leave vote being the largest ever UK vote is rather put into perspective when you realise that the Remain vote was the second largest. 

Regarding the Single Market and the Customs Union, the Government leaflet didn't reject membership per se, it just pointed out the downside of taking advantage of them from outside the EU. I actually believe the leaflet did more harm than good to the Remain cause, as it ensured which way the anti-Government vote would go.

 

"Any comment about the Leave vote being the largest ever UK vote is rather put into perspective when you realise that the Remain vote was the second largest."

 

That is just the same as saying the Labour party got the second largest number of votes at the last election.

 

So why aren't they in power now?

[billd766]

56 minutes ago, Stupooey said:

 

If you mean Saul on the road to Damascus, I would need to be blinded for more than three days to see the benefits of Brexit!

 

You are correct and I am wrong.

 

I never get those old fairy tales correct.  

 

[My Thai Life]

"The one good thing about Brexit? Leaving the EU’s disgraceful farming system"

 

One or two remain posters have said how great the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy is for protecting the environment. As usual it was just a bit of unsubstantiated emotionalism. Here’s something a bit more substantial about how damaging the CAP is for the environment (from The Guardian no less). Add to this Merkel's collusion over the German car makers’ emissions scam and see what a great job the EU isn't doing in this area.

 

 

“This is the farm subsidy system that spends €50bn (£44bn) a year on achieving none of its objectives. It is among the most powerful drivers of environmental destruction in the northern hemisphere. Because payments are made only for land that’s in “agricultural condition”, the system creates a perverse incentive to clear wildlife habitats, even in places unsuitable for farming, to produce the empty ground that qualifies for public money. These payments have led to the destruction of hundreds of thousands of hectares of magnificent wild placesacross Europe.”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/10/brexit-leaving-eu-farming-agriculture

 

[mommysboy]

44 minutes ago, billd766 said:

 

Nothing like helping out your friends and allies is there? And this is nothing like it either.

 

What a change from the end of August.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/aug/30/trump-world-trade-organization-tariffs-stock-market

 

Donald Trump has threatened to pull the United States out of the World Trade Organization if it doesn’t “shape up” and treat the US better. The US president issued the threat against the international trade body during an interview with Bloomberg news.

“If they don’t shape up, I would withdraw from the WTO,” Trump said, making public a proposal he has reportedly made to top aides in the past.

According to Axios, Trump expressed consternation that the US was still a part of the global trade body.

A source told Axios the president had often made comments like: “I don’t know why we’re in it. The WTO is designed by the rest of the world to screw the United States.”

The treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, later dismissed the idea as “an exaggeration”, while the commerce secretary, Wilbur Ross, said in July he considered talk of withdrawing from the WTO “a little premature”.

Trump’s administration has sought help from the WTO over retaliatory tariffs from China, the European Union, Canada, Mexico and Turkey, arguing the trade organization’s rules made the measures illegal.

 

It should be a wake up call to you and the other hard liners on this forum.  

 

The chances are Scotland will already be lost to the Union.  N.Ireland could easily follow.  The Brexit plan proposed is absolute folly and does not have a mandate from the people.

 

Hard Brexiteers- that's synonymous with Tory England- put their faith in a nostalgic return to the golden days of colonial trade, using outdated economic strategies, and hatchet and crowbar politics.

 

 

[Orac]

 
Nothing like helping out your friends and allies is there? And this is nothing like it either.
 
What a change from the end of August.
 
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/aug/30/trump-world-trade-organization-tariffs-stock-market
 
Donald Trump has threatened to pull the United States out of the World Trade Organization if it doesn’t “shape up” and treat the US better. The US president issued the threat against the international trade body during an interview with Bloomberg news.
“If they don’t shape up, I would withdraw from the WTO,” Trump said, making public a proposal he has reportedly made to top aides in the past.
According to Axios, Trump expressed consternation that the US was still a part of the global trade body.
A source told Axios the president had often made comments like: “I don’t know why we’re in it. The WTO is designed by the rest of the world to screw the United States.”
The treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, later dismissed the idea as “an exaggeration”, while the commerce secretary, Wilbur Ross, said in July he considered talk of withdrawing from the WTO “a little premature”.
Trump’s administration has sought help from the WTO over retaliatory tariffs from China, the European Union, Canada, Mexico and Turkey, arguing the trade organization’s rules made the measures illegal.

The whole WTO system is currently under threat and in a bit of a mess at the moment just at the wrong time as far as the UK is concerned both by the rise of China and the more aggressive positioning of the US under Trump - don’t forget that Wilbur Ross has already publicly stated that Brexit gives the US an ideal opportunity to take trade from the UK.

Though the rules do suggest that everyone has to agree to schedules and follow the rules this article by someone whose father is probably better known in Thailand is one of the best explainers I have seen on U.K./WTO situation suggesting that some things can be stretched providing that goodwill is preserved.

https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/09/12/happening-tariff-quotas-uk-wto/



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[mommysboy]

2 hours ago, Stupooey said:

 

I wondered about the reason for that myself, and came to the conclusion that the Welsh vote was skewed by the comparatively high number of English-born residents (22% of the population). Many of these are retirees, who would be expected to have mainly voted Leave.

Maybe, but a peculiar phenomenon about Brexit is that substantial numbers of traditional Labour voters in former industrial cities voted Leave.

[billd766]

10 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

 

It should be a wake up call to you and the other hard liners on this forum.  

 

The chances are Scotland will already be lost to the Union.  N.Ireland could easily follow.  The Brexit plan proposed is absolute folly and does not have a mandate from the people.

 

Hard Brexiteers- that's synonymous with Tory England- put their faith in a nostalgic return to the golden days of colonial trade, using outdated economic strategies, and hatchet and crowbar politics.

 

 

 

quote from you.

 

Hard Brexiteers- that's synonymous with Tory England- put their faith in a nostalgic return to the golden days of colonial trade, using outdated economic strategies, and hatchet and crowbar politics.

 

If what you say is correct then why are the EU still trading with Australia, New Zealand etc?

 

Why are you so certain that the UK will revert back to the old days?

 

Typical Remainer who cannot look past the "glory days" of the EU.

[kwilco]

As international cooperation is eroded by the likes of Trump and Brexit, Britain is months from becoming a fully paid up fascist state.
The civil and economic unrest brought about by Brexit will enable the government to introduce all sorts of draconian measures impinging on civil rights.
In true Nazi style certain groups within the population will be singled out for repression. Blame will be attributed  to mysterious foreign forces (trade), the EU and remainers....vigilantes will roam the streets.
The internet and media will, be brazenly used to influence, manipulate and monitor the population. If you think it is already, just wait till restrictions are lifted.
The police will militarized and drones will hover aound the streets...all in the name of keeping the peace... 

Remember Hitler didn't immediately go to war, it took a few years to organise that.

Edited October 10, 2018 by kwilco

[kwilco]

1 hour ago, billd766 said:

 

quote from you.

 

Hard Brexiteers- that's synonymous with Tory England- put their faith in a nostalgic return to the golden days of colonial trade, using outdated economic strategies, and hatchet and crowbar politics.

 

If what you say is correct then why are the EU still trading with Australia, New Zealand etc?

 

Why are you so certain that the UK will revert back to the old days?

 

Typical Remainer who cannot look past the "glory days" of the EU.

Still? You need to look at the history of old colonial trade deals and how they transferred to the EU.

UK withdrew from the old exploitative colonial deals and helped commonwealth countries get deals with EU. Post Brexit the UK has no leverage or attraction for commonwealth countries to sign back up with UK when they already have a better deal with the EU.

Edited October 10, 2018 by kwilco

[transam]

7 minutes ago, kwilco said:

As international cooperation is eroded by the likes of Trump and Brexit, Britain is months from becoming a fully paid up fascist state.
The civil and economic unrest brought about by Brexit will enable the government to introduce all sorts of draconian measures impinging on civil rights.
In true Nazi style certain groups within the population will be singled out for repression. Blame will be attributed  to mysterious foreign forces (trade), the EU and remainers....vigilantes will roam the streets.
The internet and media will, be brazenly used to influence, manipulate and monitor the population. If you think it is already, just wait till restrictions are lifted.
The police will militarized and drones will hover aound the streets...all in the name of keeping the peace... 

Remember Hitler didn't immediately go to war, it took a few years to organise that.

But Indian home deliveries will not be touched I hope....????

[dunroaming]

12 minutes ago, kwilco said:

As international cooperation is eroded by the likes of Trump and Brexit, Britain is months from becoming a fully paid up fascist state.
The civil and economic unrest brought about by Brexit will enable the government to introduce all sorts of draconian measures impinging on civil rights.
In true Nazi style certain groups within the population will be singled out for repression. Blame will be attributed  to mysterious foreign forces (trade), the EU and remainers....vigilantes will roam the streets.
The internet and media will, be brazenly used to influence, manipulate and monitor the population. If you think it is already, just wait till restrictions are lifted.
The police will militarized and drones will hover aound the streets...all in the name of keeping the peace... 

Remember Hitler didn't immediately go to war, it took a few years to organise that.

Interesting post. 

[Orac]

As international cooperation is eroded by the likes of Trump and Brexit, Britain is months from becoming a fully paid up fascist state.
The civil and economic unrest brought about by Brexit will enable the government to introduce all sorts of draconian measures impinging on civil rights.
In true Nazi style certain groups within the population will be singled out for repression. Blame will be attributed  to mysterious foreign forces (trade), the EU and remainers....vigilantes will roam the streets.
The internet and media will, be brazenly used to influence, manipulate and monitor the population. If you think it is already, just wait till restrictions are lifted.
The police will militarized and drones will hover aound the streets...all in the name of keeping the peace... 
Remember Hitler didn't immediately go to war, it took a few years to organise that.

For any potential modern day Capt Mainwarings out there there should be plenty of opportunities.

https://www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/jobs.cgi?jcode=1603914



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[Grouse]

2 hours ago, billd766 said:

 

"Any comment about the Leave vote being the largest ever UK vote is rather put into perspective when you realise that the Remain vote was the second largest."

 

That is just the same as saying the Labour party got the second largest number of votes at the last election.

 

So why aren't they in power now?

General elections are not matters of constitutional change and therefore a simple majority is fine.

 

For constitutional matters, the decision must be clear to avoid civil war. Thus it would be usual to require a super majority of some type.

[sandyf]

19 hours ago, billd766 said:

 

Sandy, yes it is. See my my post #4235 to Mommysboy.

 

The UK will not cease trading with the EU on Brexit day though a lot of things will have to be changed. Neither the UK nor the EU can afford to do that despite the bluster from politics on both sides.

 

At the very least the member countries of the TPP will not insist on laying down laws that the UK MUST obey or else.

 

Should we for example want to make a trade deal with Canada it will not take 10 years ass it has in the EU. The UK will be able to negotiate its own trade deals with worrying if nanny EU will let us or one country will block it.

 

Be like Saul on the road to Tarsus and join us Brexiteers. Think positive.

I never suggested that trade with the EU would stop, proximity will always make it the UK's preferred trade partner.

Trade with the TPP countries is available now, why would companies that cheese not change their mind.

As for Canada why would anyone think that things would be any easier for the UK than the EU. Although I accept that the autocratic regime may speed up the decision making. The EU have still to get final approval on the new legal arrangements.

https://theconversation.com/the-uncertain-future-of-the-canadian-european-trade-deal-100228

 

I used to do business with Europe before the SM. I personally took a batch of orthopedic ovens to a customer in the south of France in an estate car. You would not believe the running around at Dover before I could get on the boat, and then again at the other end. The SM took all that hassle away.

Modern technology may make what needs to done easier but it does not remove what needs to be done and it certainly does not make people understand what needs to be done.

A return to shipping agents will kill off a lot of exporting.

[vinny41]

8 hours ago, mommysboy said:

People simply want a much better option.  Whatever they should or should not have known is immaterial.  And quite frankly it's a bit rich considering the pledged made and the continual polyphonic message coming out of even senior cabinet ministers.

 

It won't just be Labour voting down whatever the Government comes back with- it will also be DUP, Scots Nats, SDP, and quite possibly a good number of Tories.

 

The electorate wants much more than the miserable deal that looks likely. The Scots and N.I are both mightily opposed to current offers.  Even Tory England is divided.

 

I doubt Labour will be jeopardising up to 5 million voters. We might with the same thinking surmise that Tories could lose the same amount.

 

A second referendum would likely be on the nature of the deal. I can't see why anyone would object to that, given a Dog's Brexit looks to be on the cards.

 

Anyone who cares about democracy, will surely agree that what the people want is the primary thing here.

 

 

No issue with having a 2nd referendum on the deal but the only options on the voting paper should be

1) do you want to leave the eu without a deal

2) do you want to leave with a deal

We have already have a referendum on remain or leave no need to ask the same question again

"A decision was made to leave the EU. Two-thirds of Labour MPs represent constituencies that voted to leave; one-third represent constituencies that voted to remain. This is obviously a difficult decision, but as democrats we in the Labour party have to accept the result."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/25/labour-betray-leave-voters-brexit-keir-starmer-second-referendum

Jeremy Corbyn faces losing 19 MPs if Labour tries to block Brexit – shock poll claims
LABOUR will lose a swathe of MPs at the next general election

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1021087/brexit-news-jeremy-corbyn-labour-marginal-constituencies-global-britain-brexit-poll