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UK voters should make final Brexit decision if talks with EU collapse: poll


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Posted
5 minutes ago, tebee said:

40% 1 brexit no deal

5%   2 brexit deal (good or not good)

25% 3 art. 50 action and Brexit called off, UK remains in EU as before

30% 4 prolongation of the art 50 negotiating phase

I'd go for

 

< 20%

> 40%

0%

40%

 

ish!

Posted
2 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

You keep on saying this, and others keep on saying the opposite. I'll let you and your adversaries punch that one out.

 

I am not an expert on British Parliamentary history or the history of referenda in the UK. And I suspect you are not either. Do you know of any precedent for a 2nd referendum prior to the enactment of a 1st referendum? If so, please let us know.

 

There's ample scope for litigation just in the two points above, never mind the rest of the brexit smorgasbord should it come to a 2nd referendum. Which it won't.

 

 

There has only ever been 3 so not much room for  precedents - mind you referendum 3 is reversing referendum 1, but rather a long time after the enactment of a 1st referendum

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Posted
1 minute ago, tebee said:

There has only ever been 3 so not much room for  precedents

Precisely, and no precedent for a 2nd referendum prior to the enacting of the 1st, or within such a short period of time.

 

Anyone who thinks this could be done without major legal challenges is living in an unreal world in my opinion. And of course I'm happy for others not to share my opinion.

 

This is a hypothetical debate anyway, as there will not be second referendum.

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Posted

People have in the main focused on the negative economic impacts of leaving. These are comparatively easy to assess. People often use the analogy of a divorce. Well we all know about the spouse we are splitting from, but we don't know about our future spouse(s). 

 

There has been little analysis of the positive effects of leaving because they're completely unquantifiable until the post-leave relationships, and our economic policies are clear.

 

Corbyn is a natural leaver because of his view of the relationship between the State and the economy. I don't think he would have the credibiity or the conviction necessary to make a good leader for an attempt to revive Remain.

 

Besides, wasn't there a recent General Election where both major parties positioned themselves for Leave?

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Posted
23 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

People have in the main focused on the negative economic impacts of leaving. These are comparatively easy to assess. People often use the analogy of a divorce. Well we all know about the spouse we are splitting from, but we don't know about our future spouse(s). 

 

There has been little analysis of the positive effects of leaving because they're completely unquantifiable until the post-leave relationships, and our economic policies are clear.

 

Corbyn is a natural leaver because of his view of the relationship between the State and the economy. I don't think he would have the credibiity or the conviction necessary to make a good leader for an attempt to revive Remain.

 

Besides, wasn't there a recent General Election where both major parties positioned themselves for Leave?

Besides, wasn't there a recent General Election where both major parties positioned themselves for Leave?”

 

There was, and coming up soon is a Labour National conference in which Labour policies will be debated and changed/set.

Labour need to put some polical space between themselves and the Tories and fill the political vacuum surrounding ‘Remain’.

 

May is for the chop!

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Posted
12 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Besides, wasn't there a recent General Election where both major parties positioned themselves for Leave?”

 

There was, and coming up soon is a Labour National conference in which Labour policies will be debated and changed/set.

Labour need to put some polical space between themselves and the Tories and fill the political vacuum surrounding ‘Remain’.

 

May is for the chop!

Labour needs to put some political space between them and Corbyn, Abbott and McDonnal.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, tebee said:

The UK Gov has backed itself into a position where a. is extremely difficult for them politically.

No one can doubt the fact that the government is in a difficult position, but given that the main political parties are both split on this issue, actually fragmented might be a better term than "split", this is hardly surprising. It looks increasingly difficult to get a majority for any specific option in the House of Commons, despite its overwhelming backing for the leave position.

 

There's been a lot of criticism of May in all of this, only to be expected of course, but I've never seen any leader in such a difficult position in my life. Ivan Rogers says she would have been better off triggering A50 after some degree of consensus had been reached, but I honestly don't believe any meaningful level of consensus would have been reached, after all, it still hasn't.

 

Both remainers and hard leavers seem to think this kind of stalemate is playing into their hands. But the fact remains that the referendum produced a leave vote, and this simple fact isn't going to change.

 

 

Edited by My Thai Life
  • Like 2
Posted
3 hours ago, tebee said:

There has only ever been 3 so not much room for  precedents - mind you referendum 3 is reversing referendum 1, but rather a long time after the enactment of a 1st referendum

Two of these three produced decisive majorities - 67-33 in favour of staying in Europe (1975) and 68-32 against changing the voting system (2011) - so there was never any reason for a re-run. There have though been several regional referenda, and perhaps the closest parallel was the 1979 Scottish Assembly Referendum, which resulted in a vote of 52% to 48% in favour of establishing an Assembly. However, the relevant Act required (sensibly in my view) that 40% of the electorate had to vote in favour before it was enacted, and as this figure was not reached it was never implemented. It was not until 1997 that Scotland had another opportunity to vote on the issue, and this time the vote was 74-26 in favour of establishing a Scottish Parliament.

The other close parallel (although outside the UK) is the Irish referenda of 2008 and 2009 to ratify the Lisbon Treaty, which I have alluded to previously in the thread. In this case, it was initially rejected (53-47), but it was subsequently discovered that the main reason for voting against was that people did not understand what they were voting for. This shortcoming was addressed, and the following year the newly-educated population voted in favour by a margin of 67-33.

Incidentally, the concept of the referendum has long been considered contrary to the spirit of the British Constitution. In 1945, then Prime Minister Clement Atlee referred to it as a "device so alien to all our traditions...which has only too often been the instrument of Nazism and Fascism", and even Margaret Thatcher described a referendum as "a device of dictators and demagogues". As you can tell I am no lover of referenda, but if it takes one to settle an indecisive one, then so be it.

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Posted
4 hours ago, bristolboy said:

What constitutional and legal nightmares would there be? The referendum was advisory. It had no legal force. As for a legal nightmare, what would that be? If the EU allows cancellation of the article 50 process, what is the problem. As for the 2nd referendum, just stipulate that if no proposal gets a majority, the top 2 get voted on. Seems simple enough. As for a political nightmare, that seems to be the way Brexit is currently heading. Keep in mind that parliament is going to have to approve whatever form of Brexit the government negotiates.

Edit: Actually, a more elegant proposal already exists. A vote for first and second choices. That way, the proposal that gets the least votes is eliminated and the second choices of voters who supported it are distributed accordingly.

Without getting into the 'it was only an advisory referendum' argument for the umpteenth time on these threads...., the main problem (as far as MPs are concerned) is that the vast majority of constituencies voted to leave!

 

Consequently, their MPs know they are likely to lose their seats if they try to stop brexit in an obvious way. 

 

Which (IMO) is why they knew they had no alternative other than to support the activation of article 50 - even though they, personally, had fought on the remain side!

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Posted

You've made a very good post Stupooey. But running the referendum a 2nd time because in your opinion the 1st wasn't well-organised enough is never going to happen.

 

So many of the remainers here position themselves as all-knowing when it comes to economic, political and constitutional issues.

 

The best time for them to have published their wisdom would have been before the referendum, when there was some chance of influencing the shape of the referendum and its outcome.

 

"Closing the stable door after the horse has bolted", or "crying over spilt milk" is not going to change anything, though it may help you all to let off a bit of steam.

 

 

 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, CanterbrigianBangkoker said:

 

 

I find it thoroughly depressing that near half the voting population would rather we remain subjugated. They've surely lost all reverence of liberty and understanding of the importance of national pride...or they have no understanding of their own nation's history, or, perhaps both. 

Working together is much better than working alone....

 

Liberty and national pride?  What a lot of nonsense.  Why should any country have national pride?  That is simply to control the population and an excuse for wars and hatred for other countries and people. What have the UK got to be proud of to such an extent to look down on Europe or other countries..... our Empire and the disgusting way we invaded and took over other countries to rob them of their wealth and resources perhaps?  

 

Have the vote again.  No problem.  What are you afraid of... perhaps that people now know some of the facts, people know they were lied to, and the stupid people that wasted their votes by protest votes or not voting will now act like adults and vote for what they really want.

 

If they have a re vote... and the result is leave again, then that will be the end of it.  If its stay, then it means people want to really stay.  Its just conformation of it and stops us making a huge mistake and stops the bickering and uncertainty.  

Posted
18 hours ago, mommysboy said:

 

I don't think anyone, not even his rivals, would regard Corbyn as thick.

 

I'd say he is the only real statesman on offer! 

 

 

 

 

Unfortunately, having been out of the UK for so long, I know little about Corbyn.  Even so, I agree that he's unlikely to be 'thick as two short planks' (as stated by another poster) bearing in mind he managed to become elected the leader of the Labour party!

 

From the little I'd heard about Corbyn, I'd thought he was probably a fairly honest, genuine socialist - until he backed off from supporting leave, even though he'd previously been extremely critical of the eu and was 'seen' as a leaver.

 

I assume (very possibly incorrectly?) that this was because his fellow MPs were trying to oust him as leader, and so he preferred to stay in the background to reduce his chances of losing his position - rather than voice his genuine beliefs.

Posted
4 minutes ago, Sir Dude said:

This whole mess is of Brussels's own making as they should have tossed David Cameron a bone or two when he went to them and wanted co-operation on a few things to avoid this very situation...and what happened? The EU elites laughed and sneered at him as they said "Non."

 

The inflexibility and arrogance of the EU elite will be it's undoing, along with it's failure to confront Islam and immigration plus protect European culture and identity. Sooner or later people will start revolting...which some say has already started. The UK voted to leave...and having seen the true colours of the EU/Brussels collective in all it's indifferent and sneering glory, who in their right mind would want to be ruled by them. UK will be OK on it's own...freedom always has a price folks.

Because democracy came to a shuddering halt on the morning of the referendum result?!

 

I have news for you.

 

It did not.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Sir Dude said:

This whole mess is of Brussels's own making as they should have tossed David Cameron a bone or two when he went to them and wanted co-operation on a few things to avoid this very situation...and what happened? The EU elites laughed and sneered at him as they said "Non."

 

The inflexibility and arrogance of the EU elite will be it's undoing, along with it's failure to confront Islam and immigration plus protect European culture and identity. Sooner or later people will start revolting...which some say has already started. The UK voted to leave...and having seen the true colours of the EU/Brussels collective in all it's indifferent and sneering glory, who in their right mind would want to be ruled by them. UK will be OK on it's own...freedom always has a price folks.

You squeezed your Islamophobia into this, like how?

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Posted
15 minutes ago, rixalex said:

The argument goes then that in spite of declaring prior to the referendum that the country would enact the will of the people based on simply which decision got the most votes, in or out; now, on reflection, it's been decided that having the most votes isn't enough, you have to win by a certain arbitary margin that we will decide upon.

What this is, in effect, is playing a game under under one set of rules, and then, when the game is finished, changing the rules because you don't like the result.

You play that trick once and then how can you expect anyone to take you seriously when you propose having another game? What rule changes might you be making after that game, should the result not please you? Might just as well ditch the pretence of fair democratic values and get on with authoritarianism.



Sent from my SM-G610F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

I don't expect any government would want to admit that attempting to enact 'the will of the people' is not working as it was anticipated - albeit that would now be the honest declaration by TM.  So, she soldiers on in utter disarray trying to square the circle and negotiate a withdrawal deal within a few months that could benefit both the UK and the EU, and thus comply with the referendum vote and her declarations of a better Britain.

 

A more realistic course, IMO, is to halt the Art 50 withdrawal process while negotiations continue, and if that fails to reach an agreement that would benefit both the UK and EU, then parliament's meaningful vote on the publicized outcome should raise the question of whether the people should be asked if they still want to leave.

 

That's democracy.  

 

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

People have in the main focused on the negative economic impacts of leaving. These are comparatively easy to assess. People often use the analogy of a divorce. Well we all know about the spouse we are splitting from, but we don't know about our future spouse(s). 

 

There has been little analysis of the positive effects of leaving because they're completely unquantifiable until the post-leave relationships, and our economic policies are clear.

 

Corbyn is a natural leaver because of his view of the relationship between the State and the economy. I don't think he would have the credibiity or the conviction necessary to make a good leader for an attempt to revive Remain.

 

Besides, wasn't there a recent General Election where both major parties positioned themselves for Leave?

No. The two main parties feared the wrath of the great unwashed. They FAILED in their responsibility to act in the BEST INTERESTS of their constituents and the country.

 

of course forecasts can be made; we don't live in the dark ages.

 

Corbyn is a useless Trotskyist w***er. He should be fired either metaphorically or literally. He, more than any other, is failing our country by continuing to breath. ⛏

Edited by Grouse
  • Confused 1
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Grouse said:

No. The two main parties feared the wrath of the great unwashed. They FAILED in their responsibility to act in the BEST INTERESTS of their constituents and the country.

 

of course forecasts can be made; we don't live in the dark ages.

> For whatever reason, the major parties backed leave at the election. (And for whatever reason, the electorate voted leave.)

 

> Of course forecasts can be made, but much easier to make forecasts based on current cash flows isn't it. And that's where all the copy and paste is coming from from the forum's leavers. 

 

> Forecasting for an entirely new economic model, or at least one that the UK hasn't followed for 50 years or so, ie a no deal scenario, is possibly more difficult than you might imagine, and would arguably hinder the ongoing "negotiations" anyway.

 

The outcome is by no means a foregone conclusion, so we're all going to have to live with the uncertainty for quite a bit longer. Well not all of us. Many of us are insulated from the outcome one way or the other.

Edited by My Thai Life
Posted
17 minutes ago, Grouse said:

No. The two main parties feared the wrath of the great unwashed. They FAILED in their responsibility to act in the BEST INTERESTS of their constituents and the country.

 

of course forecasts can be made; we don't live in the dark ages.

 

Corbyn is a useless Trotskyist w***er. He should be fired either metaphorically or literally. He, more than any other, is failing our country by continuing to breath. ⛏

That’s a curious post.

 

Having identifies failures of the political parties to address the ‘best interests of their constituents and the country’ you then spil your bile on Corbyn who has presented policies addressing the best interests of the many (not just the few)  and for the country.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Cantab? Genuinely? You don't sound like it to me. The history of our continent should guide you.

Born and bred. What makes you question that? The history of our continent should guide me into believing that being forcibly governed from an increasingly centralised hub of control is the best course of action? Having less say in our own affairs and less control from our age-old parliament is the right thing for us, as a nation? Fewer and fewer Italians, French, Germans, Spaniards, Hungarians, Poles and many many more would disagree. Homogenisation, centralised consolidation of power and demagoguery have been tried and tested, under a few different guises. The result has been invariably bad. Surely, the history of our continent shows us this more than anything else? Why would you want to repeat it?

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