UK voters should make final Brexit decision if talks with EU collapse: poll

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, rixalex said:

I'm not calling you bitter "for the purpose of dismaying you", I'm calling you bitter because that's exactly how you sound.

This is way off topic, but I'm curious. Let's hope this question as well as your answer will be here for long enough for you to write it and me to read it. 

 

Please explain. 

[SteveB2]

Interesting... (see graphic) Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_integration

Everything up to the 'common market' sounds like a great idea.

 

[Scott]

Foreign language post removed. 

 

[aright]

2 hours ago, adammike said:

It wasn't meant as compliment to you or the express.

?

[SheungWan]

7 hours ago, Grouse said:

Mea culpa!

The problem with Labour is that it is morphing from a party with many principles but essentially representing the working man into a Corbyn cult.

Many reasonable centrists are being forced out by Corbyns Trot fans. The party is moving further left.

With our FPTP system, the center is becoming a vacuum

?

Corbyn does not want to lose the UKIP voters he picked up at the last election so it is reasonably easy to see through Labour right now as far as Brexit is concerned. And add that to the Hard Left anti-EU position. Not much point Remainers holding much faith in Labour for the time being. The action continues in the Tory Party while Labour has firmly immobilised itself with a self-driven stake through its own foot.

[kwilco]

It should be quite obvious now that any kind of Brexit will not be supported by a majority but will result in a myriad of squabbling right-wing factions who between them couldn't organise a p-up in a brewery.

Brexit is not in by any definition a majority, view it is a mismatched conglomerate of the disparate desperate and dispicable ...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eurosceptics-shelve-their-rival-brexit-blueprint-5rxnblpql

 

[rixalex]

This is way off topic, but I'm curious. Let's hope this question as well as your answer will be here for long enough for you to write it and me to read it. 
 
Please explain. 

Explain what?

Sent from my SM-G610F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[Chomper Higgot]

3 hours ago, SheungWan said:

Corbyn does not want to lose the UKIP voters he picked up at the last election so it is reasonably easy to see through Labour right now as far as Brexit is concerned. And add that to the Hard Left anti-EU position. Not much point Remainers holding much faith in Labour for the time being. The action continues in the Tory Party while Labour has firmly immobilised itself with a self-driven stake through its own foot.

Oops! 

 

At risk of setting Brexiteers off on another battle with the principles of mathematics:

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/08/unions-poll-massive-backing-second-eu-brexit-referendum

 

The consensus across multiple surveys is building.

[melvinmelvin]

2 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Oops! 

 

At risk of setting Brexiteers off on another battle with the principles of mathematics:

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/08/unions-poll-massive-backing-second-eu-brexit-referendum

 

The consensus across multiple surveys is building.

 

Will be interesting to see how the PM responds to this.

 

[Scott]

A post has been removed.   The thread isn't about Sweden.  

 

[RuamRudy]

This cropped up on my Twitter feed this morning - does this explain why the Boris Johnson divorce story suddenly became front page news now, despite his more recent pecado being public knowledge for weeks?

 

 

Edited September 9, 2018 by RuamRudy

[billd766]

4 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Oops! 

 

At risk of setting Brexiteers off on another battle with the principles of mathematics:

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/08/unions-poll-massive-backing-second-eu-brexit-referendum

 

The consensus across multiple surveys is building.

 

I found the article a little boring but I did note that the survey was

 

quote " of more than 2,700 members of Unite, Unison and the GMB by YouGov, for the People’s Vote campaign, also finds that a clear majority of members of the three unions now back staying in the EU, believing Brexitwill be bad for jobs and living standards."

 

The membership of the GMB is a general trade union in the United Kingdom which has more than631,000 members. Unite has 1.42 million members and Unison has 1.3 million. That gives a total of around 3 million so more than 2,700 members is so insignificant as to be a waste of time.

 

The People's Vote Campaign is led by the Labour MP,  Chuka Umunna who is completely at odds with the Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn.

 

And you think that this is a wonderful thing?

 

How can more that 2,700 people from over 3,000,000 mean a majority in favour?

[Chomper Higgot]

2 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

Will be interesting to see how the PM responds to this.

 

It will be interesting to see the Labour Party response at the Party Conference later this month.

[Chomper Higgot]

1 minute ago, billd766 said:

 

I found the article a little boring but I did note that the survey was

 

quote " of more than 2,700 members of Unite, Unison and the GMB by YouGov, for the People’s Vote campaign, also finds that a clear majority of members of the three unions now back staying in the EU, believing Brexitwill be bad for jobs and living standards."

 

The membership of the GMB is a general trade union in the United Kingdom which has more than631,000 members. Unite has 1.42 million members and Unison has 1.3 million. That gives a total of around 3 million so more than 2,700 members is so insignificant as to be a waste of time.

 

The People's Vote Campaign is led by the Labour MP,  Chuka Umunna who is completely at odds with the Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn.

 

And you think that this is a wonderful thing?

 

How can more that 2,700 people from over 3,000,000 mean a majority in favour?

I did say ‘at the risk of setting Brexiteers off on another battle with the principles of mathematics’.

 

If you lack an understanding of statistics, statistical sampling and statistical confidence margin/interval its not my responsibility to fill that gap in your education.

 

If you would like to fill the gap, let me know and I’ll recommend some reference books for you to teach yourself from.

 

 

[billd766]

3 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

I did say ‘at the risk of setting Brexiteers off on another battle with the principles of mathematics’.

 

If you lack an understanding of statistics, statistical sampling and statistical confidence margin/interval its not my responsibility to fill that gap in your education.

 

If you would like to fill the gap, let me know and I’ll recommend some reference books for you to teach yourself from.

 

 

 

So you believe that for every person who was surveyed, al 2,700 of them represent over 3,000,000 other people or to put it simply so that you can understand. Each person surveyed represents 1,111 other people?

 

That is supposed to impress me?

 

I suspect that you need to remove your head from another part of your anatomy and try looking at real life.

[Srikcir]

6 minutes ago, billd766 said:

How can more that 2,700 people from over 3,000,000 mean a majority in favour?

Through Statistical Sampling.

For example, for a population of 3,000,000; a confidence factor of 95%; and a 5% margin of error;

the sample size is 385. 

https://www.surveymonkey.com/mp/sample-size-calculator/ 

But the above calculated sample size assumes 100% response rate. That's okay for inert objects but not for people. So one must account for what percent of those asked to participate in the survey will do so.

For example if the responded sample size is 385 and the anticipated response rate is 20%, the number of people approached for the survey will be 1,925.

https://www.checkmarket.com/sample-size-calculator/

 

 

 

 

 

[melvinmelvin]

23 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

This cropped up on my Twitter feed this morning - does this explain why the Boris Johnson divorce story suddenly became front page news now, despite his more recent pecado being public knowledge for weeks?

 

 

 

is his bid expected?

or is it now out in the wild open?

 

to be launched at Tory party conf?

 

(what a sad bunch of dheads the tories are)

 

[dick dasterdly]

18 minutes ago, billd766 said:

 

I found the article a little boring but I did note that the survey was

 

quote " of more than 2,700 members of Unite, Unison and the GMB by YouGov, for the People’s Vote campaign, also finds that a clear majority of members of the three unions now back staying in the EU, believing Brexitwill be bad for jobs and living standards."

 

The membership of the GMB is a general trade union in the United Kingdom which has more than631,000 members. Unite has 1.42 million members and Unison has 1.3 million. That gives a total of around 3 million so more than 2,700 members is so insignificant as to be a waste of time.

 

The People's Vote Campaign is led by the Labour MP,  Chuka Umunna who is completely at odds with the Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn.

 

And you think that this is a wonderful thing?

 

How can more that 2,700 people from over 3,000,000 mean a majority in favour?

'Lies, damn lies and statistics' has been a common expression/joke for a very long time.  It's probably time to add 'polls' to that list! ?

[RuamRudy]

6 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

is his bid expected?

or is it now out in the wild open?

 

to be launched at Tory party conf?

 

(what a sad bunch of dheads the tories are)

 

I guess the expose about his private life will help the old school question his adherence or otherwise to 'conservative values', were they ever in any doubt.

And for the consumption of Brexit supporters, there was also the revelation that he 'realises that he has f@&*ed up', and that his pro-Brexit stance was never ideological, but a cynical attempt to take over what he thought was going to be the winning side.

 

I admit that I like a convoluted explanation for everything so I would probably put my money on him either being on the brink of pulling the pin, or retreating like a scalded cat from being about to do so. The latter seems less plausible though - he has never really demonstrated common sense or a concern about how his actions might be viewed.

[Srikcir]

4 minutes ago, billd766 said:

Each person surveyed represents 1,111 other people?

Correct, if the population is "homogeneous," ie., uniform, identical unvaried, consistent in character.

If the population is suspected not to be homogeneous, then the population to be tested must be stratified into homogeneous groups by whatever suspected difference might be to test any causality to the connection between a cause and its result or consequence, ie., by skill, pay level, gender, religion, etc.

Test for causality can be incorporated into an initial survey to determine if subdivision of population must be done to assure that it is homogeneous.

[RuamRudy]

3 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

Correct, if the population is "homogeneous," ie., uniform, identical unvaried, consistent in character.

If the population is suspected not to be homogeneous, then the population to be tested must be stratified into homogeneous groups by whatever suspected difference might be to test any causality to the connection between a cause and its result or consequence, ie., by skill, pay level, gender, religion, etc.

Test for causality can be incorporated into an initial survey to determine if subdivision of population must be done to assure that it is homogeneous.

I read a nice, simple analogy recently - if made properly and mixed well enough, a chef doesn't need to taste an entire pot of soup to know that his spoonfull represents the whole pot.

[melvinmelvin]

16 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

I guess the expose about his private life will help the old school question his adherence or otherwise to 'conservative values', were they ever in any doubt.

And for the consumption of Brexit supporters, there was also the revelation that he 'realises that he has f@&*ed up', and that his pro-Brexit stance was never ideological, but a cynical attempt to take over what he thought was going to be the winning side.

 

I admit that I like a convoluted explanation for everything so I would probably put my money on him either being on the brink of pulling the pin, or retreating like a scalded cat from being about to do so. The latter seems less plausible though - he has never really demonstrated common sense or a concern about how his actions might be viewed.

right,

makes sense

 

anyway, cannot think of any good reason to replace TM now,

unless it was for a desperate bid to change the show - arrange a new referendum - pull out of the Brexit process

 

[aright]

1 hour ago, RuamRudy said:

This cropped up on my Twitter feed this morning - does this explain why the Boris Johnson divorce story suddenly became front page news now, despite his more recent pecado being public knowledge for weeks?

 

 

I think this is common practice when running for office overtly or covertly with baggage. It's called "pricing in" 

[RuamRudy]

Just now, aright said:

I think this is common practice when running for office overtly or covertly with baggage. It's called "pricing in" 

You think he leaked those stories himself? I am definitely too naive for all this House of Cards intrigue - you've now got me wondering whether it was it actually the SNP who leaked the Alex Salmond investigation details in order to get them out of the way...

[aright]

22 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

You think he leaked those stories himself? I am definitely too naive for all this House of Cards intrigue - you've now got me wondering whether it was it actually the SNP who leaked the Alex Salmond investigation details in order to get them out of the way...

That story is as plausible as yours. I have no axe to grind here he is not my candidate or cup of tea but he is box office material and has tremendous support from grass root Conservatives and if you read between the Remainer lines he wasn't guilty of seizing, raping or ravishing any women they were  all willing. As an employer I personally feel it is the performance of  my employees duties which are of concern to me not their(as long as legal) private lives.

I am not taking his side, he has political and social shortcomings, just trying to be fair.

Edited September 9, 2018 by aright

[Chomper Higgot]

1 hour ago, billd766 said:

 

So you believe that for every person who was surveyed, al 2,700 of them represent over 3,000,000 other people or to put it simply so that you can understand. Each person surveyed represents 1,111 other people?

 

That is supposed to impress me?

 

I suspect that you need to remove your head from another part of your anatomy and try looking at real life.

I’m certain of two things:

 

1. A random sample of 2700 from a population of 3,000,000 will comfortably provide a Confidence Level of 99% and a Confidence interval of 3%.

 

2. Your ignorance of statistics is more profound than I at first suspected.

 

 

Brexitters arguing with the principles of mathematics is taking their denial of reality to new heights of ludicrousness.

[Chomper Higgot]

1 hour ago, dick dasterdly said:

'Lies, damn lies and statistics' has been a common expression/joke for a very long time.  It's probably time to add 'polls' to that list! ?

And like much common sense it’s hogwash.

 

If you don’t trust statistics don’t fly in an aircraft, don’t travel in a car, don’t cross a suspension bridge, don’t ride in an elevator, don’t take any medicines.

 

The safety of all of these and very many more aspects of modern life is reliant upon statistics, significantly on the very same statistical analysis of samples used in opinion polls.

 

Nobody uses common sense to build commercial aircraft.

[melvinmelvin]

11 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

I’m certain of two things:

 

1. A random sample of 2700 from a population of 3,000,000 will comfortably provide a Confidence Level of 99% and a Confidence interval of 3%.

 

2. Your ignorance of statistics is more profound than I at first suspected.

 

 

Brexitters arguing with the principles of mathematics is taking their denial of reality to new heights of ludicrousness.

don't hold your breath

 

explaining sampling, confidence, intervals, casualty to people who do not know statistics or math is impossible

people just will not believe you - regardless of what you say

 

[dick dasterdly]

10 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

And like much common sense it’s hogwash.

 

If you don’t trust statistics don’t fly in an aircraft, don’t travel in a car, don’t cross a suspension bridge, don’t ride in an elevator, don’t take any medicines.

 

The safety of all of these and very many more aspects of modern life is reliant upon statistics, significantly on the very same statistical analysis of samples used in opinion polls.

 

Nobody uses common sense to build commercial aircraft.

I'm pretty sure the common expression/joke about 'lies, damn lies and statistics' is largely related to politics and business (edit - and media) using these to manipulate opinion in 'their' favour.

 

 e.g. I suspect few doubt actuarial tables.

Edited September 9, 2018 by dick dasterdly

[Chomper Higgot]

3 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

I'm pretty sure the common expression/joke about 'lies, damn lies and statistics' is largely related to politics and business (edit - and media) using these to manipulate opinion in 'their' favour.

 

 e.g. I suspect few doubt actuarial tables.

 

But of course, I could be wrong in that respect.

This latest survey is one of many that are demonstrating the same trend - opinion moving against Brexit and in favour of the electorate having a final say.

 

But yes I certainly take your point that the line ‘Statistics and damned lies’ is often used by politicians, usually when they don’t like what the statistics are telling them.

 

As an aside: 

 

The very first statistics lecture I attended the lecturer started with the pronouncement:

‘Failing this subject will be the single biggest cause of students being sent down, those of you who fail and are sent down might commit to memory the phrase ‘statistics and damned lies’, it might offer you comfort in later years.