Gen Chatchai is confident current flooding is not a serious problem

[Eric Loh]

5 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

The upper curve rule is a theoretical limit rather than a physical one, it wouldn't be the first time in history that management exceeded its own guidelines although in this case we may never know the reason why.

If it’s only theoretical, why need to set up war rooms to monitor the dams. 

[simoh1490]

1 minute ago, Eric Loh said:

If it’s only theoretical, why need to set up war rooms to monitor the dams. 

Why not, that's good practice when you can see a potential crisis coming? 

[Eric Loh]

9 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Why not, that's good practice when you can see a potential crisis coming? 

Exactly, the crisis is that water has reached the upper curve limit. 

[Vacuum]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Gen Chatchai is confident current flooding is not a serious problem

If you say so.

 

Quote

Rain chaos in Pattaya as district chief on scene of tour bus that fell down a hole

 

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PEOPLE LIVING on the banks of major rivers in Thailand have been warned they face a serious risk of flooding.

 

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Nong Khai school ordered closed until Wednesday after Maekhong bursts its banks

 

[simoh1490]

1 minute ago, Eric Loh said:

Exactly, the crisis is that water has reached the upper curve limit. 

Agreed, and, your point is?

[sammieuk1]

I'm also confident no general will get wet in the making of this statement?

[robblok]

1 hour ago, JAG said:

I venture to suggest that it is a very severe problem to those farmers whose paddy fields are to be used as water catchment areas. They can look forward to losing their crops, and their houses being flooded.

They should be well compensated, last year they were compensated for this so I hope / assume this year will be the same. They are talking about paddy fields not houses under water. Usually houses in those area's are build higher.

Anyway much more should be done just monkey cheeks is not enough.. its just a cheep solution (that possibly works as there has been no 2011 repeat so far). Its a big shame that nothing came of YL her plans and nothing came of Prayut his plans. Seems the higher ups accept the flooding as long as they don't reach Bangkok.

[gunderhill]

I want another  365  opinions though from the other generals, just so I feel really  safe about this.

How  long will it be before it doesn't  flood general??

[Sonhia]

For the 'high-so', flooding is not a serious matter, but for those on the ground, it is a real threat!

 

Nature should never be underestimated...

[Eric Loh]

18 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Agreed, and, your point is?

Not theoretical as you implied. Very much a physical problem. 

[simoh1490]

1 minute ago, Eric Loh said:

Not theoretical as you implied. Very much a physical problem. 

Not so, the upper curve rule is exactly that, it's a rule that should be followed. But if it isn't followed it's not as though water will suddenly come cascading over the top of the dam, it's a flag, a trigger point for action, a date in the calendar. The rule curves exist as a basis of water management, the balance the inflows against outflows during the dry seasons and to try and avoid flooding.

 

Here, read this, perhaps it will help you understand: 

 

" Rule curves are established as an attempt to balance various water needs such as flood control, irrigation, and environmental benefits such as fish and wildlife management. The processes and challenges associated with amending rule curves to balance multiuse needs are complicated"

 

 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10402381.2013.829893

 

"Through simulation of the water budget and optimization, a rule curve was developed for reservoir operation for achieving the maximum exploitable reservoir withdrawal in rainy periods. The results show that it is possible to use the excess water in periods of large inflows with no damage to water supply during dry periods".

 

http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2318-03312016000300493

[hotchilli]

6 hours ago, Thailand said:

Wouldn't good water management be the way forward with the flood waters being redirected to drought areas?

But that would mean replacing Generals with common people!

[robblok]

2 hours ago, Srikcir said:

Science provides the data and analysis by those who understand the science for decision-makers to use in flood management. But it doesn't guarantee that decisions aren't made with social and/or political considerations. Case in point is where dam and reservoir water levels are allowed to exceed the Upper Curve Limit, in some case greater than 100% before management plans mitigating action.

That is because the dams have two conflicting purposes.

 

- preventing flooding.. that means keeping the dams as empty as possible and dumping water whenever

- retaining water for farming.. that means getting as much water in as possible

 

As long as they do this they will have to accept flooding, if they want to prevent flooding then they should accept there is less water for farmers in the dry season. If they want a lot of water for farmers they should accept that there will be flooding too.

 

Trying for both goals and is real hard, choosing one of the two would mean that goal can be reached each and every time.

[robblok]

1 hour ago, simoh1490 said:

Not so, the upper curve rule is exactly that, it's a rule that should be followed. But if it isn't followed it's not as though water will suddenly come cascading over the top of the dam, it's a flag, a trigger point for action, a date in the calendar. The rule curves exist as a basis of water management, the balance the inflows against outflows during the dry seasons and to try and avoid flooding.

 

Here, read this, perhaps it will help you understand: 

 

" Rule curves are established as an attempt to balance various water needs such as flood control, irrigation, and environmental benefits such as fish and wildlife management. The processes and challenges associated with amending rule curves to balance multiuse needs are complicated"

 

 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10402381.2013.829893

 

"Through simulation of the water budget and optimization, a rule curve was developed for reservoir operation for achieving the maximum exploitable reservoir withdrawal in rainy periods. The results show that it is possible to use the excess water in periods of large inflows with no damage to water supply during dry periods".

 

http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2318-03312016000300493

But that is the problem here the balancing act, if they go for more safety.. farmers suffer, if they want to keep as much water as possible other people suffer. If they want less flooding all they need to do is take a bigger safety margin (bad for farmers), if they want more water for farmers.. accept then that there will be more flooding.

 

You choose one of the two that has the highest priority.. now they are trying for both and failing. 

[simoh1490]

Posters don't care about those things Rob, they want to bash the Generals and they won't allow facts to get in their way.

[robblok]

16 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Posters don't care about those things Rob, they want to bash the Generals and they won't allow facts to get in their way.

I care about keeping my house dry, in the back of my mind there is always a repeat of 2011.. but in the 40 year history of this village it only flooded in 2011.. so my chances are ok unless they mess it up badly like in 2011. 

 

Some politicians chose for farmers.. overruled the dams managers and 2011 became worse then it should have been. I just hope they don't make the same mistake again. 

 

The only ting that changed since that time is the extra monkey cheeks, maybe its enough  maybe not.. Ill will se e in October.

[Borzandy]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

flooding is not a serious problem

I believe it's not serious for a Gen, but for the simple people.....

[Eric Loh]

31 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Posters don't care about those things Rob, they want to bash the Generals and they won't allow facts to get in their way.

Facts like 9 provinces in the east are flooded & the west bracing for severe flooding. Phetchaburi has 3 floods in 3 consecutive years and left the people dewildered that the dam can be overfilled. Never happened to them before. Who to blame but the generals in power. 

[simoh1490]

2 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Facts like 9 provinces in the east are flooded & the west bracing for severe flooding. Phetchaburi has 3 floods in 3 consecutive years and left the people dewildered that the dam can be overfilled. Never happened to them before. Who to blame but the generals in power. 

I would expect YOU to blame the generals in power for most things, including your ingrown toenails and the poor wax job at the car wash.

[Eric Loh]

10 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

I would expect YOU to blame the generals in power for most things, including your ingrown toenails and the poor wax job at the car wash.

You seem to have a soft spot for the generals. Bless you for ignoring all their incompetences and atrocities. I am sure you are wearing your army T-shirt with “I love Prayut” print. 

[simoh1490]

3 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

You seem to have a soft spot for the generals. Bless you for ignoring all their incompetences and atrocities. I am sure you are wearing your army T-shirt with “I love Prayut” print. 

Not really, I do however tend to look for more likely answers as to why something happened instead of simply reaching into an answer box that contains only one answer.

[robblok]

22 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Facts like 9 provinces in the east are flooded & the west bracing for severe flooding. Phetchaburi has 3 floods in 3 consecutive years and left the people dewildered that the dam can be overfilled. Never happened to them before. Who to blame but the generals in power. 

You mean like something like 2011 also never happened before EVER in Thailand yet you don't blame YL.

 

Bias Eric as usual.

 

Anyway they should just keep a larger safety margin.. but I bet you will be moaning then when farmers don't have enough water.

[robblok]

2 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Not really, I do however tend to look for more likely answers as to why something happened instead of simply reaching into an answer box that contains only one answer.

Why it is happening is clear to me, as i posted a few times, not going to repeat that again.

 

I would really like it if they kept a larger safety margin, but the farmers would not. 

 

I still think that they should build some more large scale projects because none have been build. The monkey cheeks are working as since 2011 there has been no flooding here anymore. I hope they will work this year too. But what amazes me is that there are certain spots that overflow every time. 

 

Each year you see the same sand bags appearing, I really don't understand why they don't put a concrete embankment there. Is it a money problem, don't the people there want to lose the space that such a concrete embankment takes up ?. I am talking about a certain bend in the river that I see on pictures every year.

 

Here where I am they put some extra sluices and now the low lying area's don't flood (at least not as much as it used to). I also believe they have heightened some roads so they would hold back water so a 2011 wont happen again (might be tied to the monkey cheeks). 

 

I see so much wasted money, like on the rice scam and on the subs, if they had just used that for flood prevention things would look better. I don't think they can prevent it all, but I am sure much more can be done. 

 

I just don't get it.. I mean can they skim less from the construction of dams / waterworks  then the other large scale projects ? Why do all the other projects go on but this gets cancelled all the time.

[Eric Loh]

8 minutes ago, robblok said:

You mean like something like 2011 also never happened before EVER in Thailand yet you don't blame YL.

 

Bias Eric as usual.

 

Anyway they should just keep a larger safety margin.. but I bet you will be moaning then when farmers don't have enough water.

She got the blame and charged too. Meanwhile we been told not to blame the generals and don’t even mention charging the junta. Double standard Rob?

[robblok]

13 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

She got the blame and charged too. Meanwhile we been told not to blame the generals and don’t even mention charging the junta. Double standard Rob?

I am talking about you.. not about what others did. I Seem to recall you don't think she was responsible. So I am talking about your double standards. You either blame both YL and the generals or you don't blame either.

 

YL was in power during the worst EVER flooding, in your post you seemed to complain about something that never happened before and blamed the generals for it.  2011 was far worse but you kept saying you did not blame YL.

 

So be honest.. do you blame them both or will you find an other excuse not to blame YL and hold your double standards.

 

I feel both generals and YL are to blame mainly because they keep a small safety margin for the dams so farmers have more water. But they YL and generals are between a rock and a hard place.. no flooding great happy people.. but if there is not enough water they will get complaints from farmers.. so they take the risks and then end u p with flooding. 

 

IMHO they should priorities and explain people why the dams flood them because they want to keep them full for the farmers. Then people should either accept it.. or the farmers should accept less water for their needs. 

 

Maybe some bigger lakes with dams can be build if they can with some accuracy forcast where its needed (I have no clue if that can be done)

[Ossy]

2 hours ago, robblok said:

is the extra monkey cheeks,

Pray tell, Rob . . . what the hell are these? Ahh! . . . is that the streetwise name for those water-retention areas, like those that caused such a rumpus, last year, when it was evident that reservoir water management wasn't all that it should have been?

[robblok]

1 minute ago, Ossy said:

Pray tell, Rob . . . what the hell are these? Ahh! . . . is that the streetwise name for those water-retention areas, like those that caused such a rumpus, last year, when it was evident that reservoir water management wasn't all that it should have been?

Its a streetwise name for the water retention places .. believe gam ling (is what its called in Thai). So they translated the Thai to English. From what i know this seems to be working a bit. I was in the 2011 flood zone and since then we had no problems anymore. I am not saying that this is the reason.. but there must have been some changes as even the low lying areas here in Bang Bua Thong that i seen have not flooded since 2011. That does not mean I don't worry.. i still do.

[Ossy]

28 minutes ago, robblok said:

Its a streetwise name for the water retention places .. believe gam ling (is what its called in Thai). So they translated the Thai to English. From what i know this seems to be working a bit. I was in the 2011 flood zone and since then we had no problems anymore. I am not saying that this is the reason.. but there must have been some changes as even the low lying areas here in Bang Bua Thong that i seen have not flooded since 2011. That does not mean I don't worry.. i still do.

Thank-you and stay dry.

[simoh1490]

4 hours ago, robblok said:

Why it is happening is clear to me, as i posted a few times, not going to repeat that again.

 

I would really like it if they kept a larger safety margin, but the farmers would not. 

 

I still think that they should build some more large scale projects because none have been build. The monkey cheeks are working as since 2011 there has been no flooding here anymore. I hope they will work this year too. But what amazes me is that there are certain spots that overflow every time. 

 

Each year you see the same sand bags appearing, I really don't understand why they don't put a concrete embankment there. Is it a money problem, don't the people there want to lose the space that such a concrete embankment takes up ?. I am talking about a certain bend in the river that I see on pictures every year.

 

Here where I am they put some extra sluices and now the low lying area's don't flood (at least not as much as it used to). I also believe they have heightened some roads so they would hold back water so a 2011 wont happen again (might be tied to the monkey cheeks). 

 

I see so much wasted money, like on the rice scam and on the subs, if they had just used that for flood prevention things would look better. I don't think they can prevent it all, but I am sure much more can be done. 

 

I just don't get it.. I mean can they skim less from the construction of dams / waterworks  then the other large scale projects ? Why do all the other projects go on but this gets cancelled all the time.

FWIW we agree on what you wrote, it's a bit like budget forecasting, miss your target by five dollars and all of a sudden joe public cries overrun, the military is buying toys whilst the poor suffer. So it is with water management, avoiding flooding means the risk of not enough water for next years crops and guess what, it's the military's fault again - when it floods, that's the military's fault also.

[mfd101]

The military COULD of course - as any government could - show some leadership by actually setting out very clearly, for the education of the people, what the options are & their consequences. And they could say: We have chosen the following option or combination of options for the following reasons. The effects will be X&Y and the costs will be such'nsuch. Get used to it.

 

But, as one of my unlamented bosses in the Australian Public Service used to say to me with some frequency: You're being rational again!