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Sterling hits two-week peak on smooth Brexit hopes; Asian shares seen jittery

By Swati Pandey

 

FILE PHOTO: British five pound banknotes.November 14, 2017. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File Photo

 

SYDNEY (Reuters) - The British pound jumped to a two-week high on Monday on hopes Britain was inching closer to a smooth Brexit, while Asian stocks will likely have a nervous start amid worries about shaky Sino-U.S. trade relations.

 

With just five months to go until the UK exits the EU, Britain's divorce talks are at an impasse, fuelling huge uncertainty among businesses and causing the value of sterling to see-saw on any news about a possible breakthrough in the negotiations.

 

A Sunday Times report that an all-UK customs deal will be written into the agreement governing Britain's withdrawal from the EU was enough to cheer investors who sent the pound <GBP=> to $1.3062, the highest since Oct. 22.

 

The currency has faltered in seven of the 10 months of this year so far, losing as much as 3.6 percent.

 

British Prime Minister Theresa May's office called the Sunday Times report speculatory but added that 95 percent of the withdrawal agreement was settled and negotiations were ongoing.

 

Elsewhere, investors will keep their eyes peeled for any headline on the Sino-U.S. trade war ahead of a meeting of the leaders of the world's two biggest economies later this month.

 

Chinese President Xi Jinping delivers a speech at the China International Import Expo later in the day, which could provide further clues on the subject.

 

Markets had climbed early on Friday on hopes the United States and China were mending their relations, but gains faded on news a tariff deal may not be imminent.

 

The outlook for global shares has also been clouded by the prospect of faster rate rises in the United States amid robust economic data in recent months. On Friday, the world's biggest economy reported solid jobs growth for October, with wages at 9-1/2-year highs, further boosting expectations for a December rate rise.

 

"The U.S. employment report supports our view that the Federal Reserve will raise rates three more times from now until mid-2019," Capital Economics said in a note.

 

"After that, we suspect that the cumulative effect of monetary policy tightening will start taking a toll on the US economy, forcing the Fed to end its tightening cycle and pulling Treasury yields, the US stock market and the dollar down."

 

Broadly, trading is expected to be rangebound ahead of U.S. congressional midterm elections on Tuesday. Opinion polls show strong chances that Democrats may win control of the House of Representatives in the elections after two years of wielding no practical political power in Washington, with President Donald Trump's Republican Party likely to keep the Senate.

 

A Reuters analysis of the past half century shows stocks fared better in the two calendar years after congressional elections when Republicans control Congress and the presidency than when Democrats controlled the two branches, as well as during times of gridlock.

 

In commodities, oil traders will keenly await the outcome of negotiations on possible waivers to U.S. sanctions on Iran.

 

"Any deals allowing oil importers to continue buying from Iran could see prices come under further pressure," ANZ said in a morning note to clients.

 

(Reporting by Swati Pandey; Editing by Peter Cooney)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2018-11-05

[phil2407]

Why are you comparing £ to $ - should be £ to baht as Thailand forum 

[overherebc]

42 minutes ago, phil2407 said:

Why are you comparing £ to $ - should be £ to baht as Thailand forum 

In reality the only people interested in £/baht rate internationaly are the Brits in Thailand. Me being one of them. In the bigger picture it's not that important.

[billd766]

55 minutes ago, phil2407 said:

Why are you comparing £ to $ - should be £ to baht as Thailand forum 

In case you had missed it this thread was posted in the World News and not just in Thai news.

 

Why not as they are both international currencies?

 

 

[BritManToo]

Eagerly looks at XE.com ........ 42.75 .........

Not really news as it was at 43.5 last month.

[wgdanson]

4 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Eagerly looks at XE.com ........ 42.75 .........

Not really news as it was at 43.5 last month.

Momentarily, on 11th.

Edited November 5, 2018 by wgdanson

[mercman24]

bangkok bank on the 4th nov 41.81 today 5th Nove 41.85 BIG DEAL

[worgeordie]

If only the Baht would weaken,that would

be real news,and a big surprise.

regards worgeordie

[FitnessHealthTravel]

6 hours ago, overherebc said:

In reality the only people interested in £/baht rate internationaly are the Brits in Thailand. Me being one of them. In the bigger picture it's not that important.

Actually it's important to business here.  Many Brits travel here or decide on other locations based on the exchange rate.  40% of our business comes from the U.K. so as far as we are concerned the stronger the £ the better for our business.  The US currency is irrelevant to our business as we don't attract Americans but I can see it would before other businesses here that target the U.S. It's all relative to where your business is coming from.  In my opinion.

[overherebc]

1 hour ago, FitnessHealthTravel said:

Actually it's important to business here.  Many Brits travel here or decide on other locations based on the exchange rate.  40% of our business comes from the U.K. so as far as we are concerned the stronger the £ the better for our business.  The US currency is irrelevant to our business as we don't attract Americans but I can see it would before other businesses here that target the U.S. It's all relative to where your business is coming from.  In my opinion.

Would be nice to have total confidence that the £ will rebound 'after Brexit.'

What will actually happen I've no idea. Will more countries in europe want their own --xit

 

 

 

Let's say you are selling up here and thinking of moving to somewhere in the EU. Sell for eg 5,000,000 and convert to £ at 43/44 to the pound.

Wait til after Brexit and sell, are you going to be converting at 55/56 or 35/37 to the £?

The Thai baht is doing well because of among other things export of cars to the Asean area and of course tourism, although the second seems to depend on conflicting reports, it's continually going up or it's going down?????

Wouldn't it be nice to know. ????

[nausea]

I'm bored. When it get's up to 68bt again I'll be interested. Not impossible I reckon, volatile situations produce volatile results. That's what's great about the Great Brexit Gamble. Not for the faint-hearted, that's for sure.

[Baerboxer]

On 11/5/2018 at 11:33 AM, phil2407 said:

Why are you comparing £ to $ - should be £ to baht as Thailand forum 

 

Maybe because it's in the "World News" section?