Extreme Brexit could be worse than financial crisis for UK: BoE

[tebee]

 

[sandyf]

23 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

So are you saying the EU don't want the UK to stay? Are you saying the UK doesn't pay a lot compared to the other states?

 

More anti EU propaganda, I am not saying anything about the EU we get enough of that from the brexiteers.

Contributions to the EU are the smallest item listed in the UK expenditure, yet described as "massive", and a mere fraction of what goes on debt interest which has absolutely no iota of benefit to the population, just gets ignored.

What I am saying is it is fairly obvious that there are many that would rather just pour the limited resources into brexit rather than additional help to services desperately in need. How much did the government spend on "advice" on the shipping contract, just one item.

The damage has been done, even if brexit were to be cancelled, "United" has been removed from the "Kingdom".

[evadgib]

10 hours ago, aright said:

I'm not crazy about Pizza but I am looking forward to my first post Brexit celebration meal.

 

A lovely USDA steak

Some great vegetables from Africa

Bread made from Canadian flour

New Zealand butter

Washed down with a full bodied Australian Shiraz

 

and the Bill will be 20-25% lower.

You'll be on Phad Thai Goong with the rest of us????

[evadgib]

8 hours ago, tebee said:

 

Scotland tried to do just that in 2014. No plan. No currency. Zilch & they're lecturing us?

Edited February 15, 2019 by evadgib

[dick dasterdly]

10 hours ago, aright said:

I'm not crazy about Pizza but I am looking forward to my first post Brexit celebration meal.

 

A lovely USDA steak

Some great vegetables from Africa

Bread made from Canadian flour

New Zealand butter

Washed down with a full bodied Australian Shiraz

 

and the Bill will be 20-25% lower.

 

 

 

 

 

 

18 minutes ago, evadgib said:

You'll be on Phad Thai Goong with the rest of us????

IMO, assuming he's living in the uk - he has a point.

 

Unsuprisingly (.....) after joining the common market and CAP, prices went up......

[thaibilly]

Pound pushing 40 now - to those expat Brexiteers cheering on the No Deal hope you're all ready and greased up to take 30 when the fire sale really starts. BTW if you are forced home by falling pound and immigration rules Blackpool is as cheap as it's really good chips. 

Edited February 15, 2019 by thaibilly

[tomacht8]

10 hours ago, aright said:

I'm not crazy about Pizza but I am looking forward to my first post Brexit celebration meal.

 

A lovely USDA steak

Some great vegetables from Africa

Bread made from Canadian flour

New Zealand butter

Washed down with a full bodied Australian Shiraz

 

and the Bill will be 20-25% lower.

 

 

 

 

 

I begrudge you.

20% cheaper?

Then the submerged British pound would have to rise again enormously. 

I love the Brexiteer economics.

[dick dasterdly]

2 minutes ago, thaibilly said:

Pound pushing 40 now - to those expat Brexiteers cheering on the No Deal hope you're all ready and greased up to take 30 when the fire sale really starts. 

Always good to see a new member - who for some reason isn't interested in Thailand - just brexit ????.

[dick dasterdly]

14 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

 

IMO, assuming he's living in the uk - he has a point.

 

Unsuprisingly (.....) after joining the common market and CAP, prices went up......

But of course remainers will ignore this.......

[thaibilly]

4 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

Always good to see a new member - who for some reason isn't interested in Thailand - just brexit ????.

I've lost my other account for the time being beautifulthiland99 who is currently in Jontiem bottom feeding condo sales for my wife. Seems it's game over for a lot of the lower income Brits. 

[welovesundaysatspace]

On 2/14/2019 at 10:08 AM, Laughing Gravy said:

So are you saying the EU don't want the UK to stay? 

Correct. If there’s one thing the EU must be scared about, and one thing the UK has in terms of negotiating power, it’s the right to cancel A50. The biggest nightmare for the EU is not a no-deal; a big club can easily manage that. The biggest nightmare is ending up with that failed democracy, that divided nation and all its lunatics wracking our countries and blocking our future the same way they did with the UK. 

 

The number one priority for the EU now must be to get the UK out, so it cannot use the A50 cancellation anymore. The second priority would be to let the UK leave with a deal to make things easier. 

 

So, I am almost inclined to argue in favor of giving in on the backstop. Making some concessions there and getting the deal through parliament would remove the biggest threat from the process, which is an A50 cancellation. After that, we would be in the same situation as now, I.e. the UK begging for a trade agreement, but without any negotiating power, and without anything to threaten with. 

 

And I actually think that’s the EU’s current negotiating strategy. They will probably make some concessions last minute to achieve exactly that. They are just holding back until the last minute so that there’s more pressure and less chance to add other things to the negotiation. 

[nauseus]

11 minutes ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

Correct. If there’s one thing the EU must be scared about, and one thing the UK has in terms of negotiating power, it’s the right to cancel A50. The biggest nightmare for the EU is not a no-deal; a big club can easily manage that. The biggest nightmare is ending up with that failed democracy, that divided nation and all its lunatics wracking our countries and blocking our future the same way they did with the UK. 

 

The number one priority for the EU now must be to get the UK out, so it cannot use the A50 cancellation anymore. The second priority would be to let the UK leave with a deal to make things easier. 

 

So, I am almost inclined to argue in favor of giving in on the backstop. Making some concessions there and getting the deal through parliament would remove the biggest threat from the process, which is an A50 cancellation. After that, we would be in the same situation as now, I.e. the UK begging for a trade agreement, but without any negotiating power, and without anything to threaten with. 

 

And I actually think that’s the EU’s current negotiating strategy. They will probably make some concessions last minute to achieve exactly that. They are just holding back until the last minute so that there’s more pressure and less chance to add other things to the negotiation. 

Cods in space. ????

[welovesundaysatspace]

8 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Cods in space. ????

Your lack of counter arguments, or anything substantial, shows me you must agree. 

[nauseus]

27 minutes ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

Your lack of counter arguments, or anything substantial, shows me you must agree. 

Of course it does.

[sandyf]

On 2/14/2019 at 1:39 PM, vogie said:

Because the majority voted to remain with the Union. Remember their once in a lifetime referendum, they chose to remain with the UK.

A simplistic and distorted point of view. Just like brexit they were faced with the government deal or a no deal scenario, and the 650 page government deal presented before the referendum was clearly not viable. Again like brexit, it cannot be assumed that 'no deal' is what people actually wanted.

May have been a different outcome, again like brexit, if the Scottish government had published their deal after the referendum.

[aright]

 

2 hours ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

Correct. If there’s one thing the EU must be scared about, and one thing the UK has in terms of negotiating power, it’s the right to cancel A50. The biggest nightmare for the EU is not a no-deal; a big club can easily manage that. The biggest nightmare is ending up with that failed democracy, that divided nation and all its lunatics wracking our countries and blocking our future the same way they did with the UK. 

 

The number one priority for the EU now must be to get the UK out, so it cannot use the A50 cancellation anymore. The second priority would be to let the UK leave with a deal to make things easier. 

 

So, I am almost inclined to argue in favor of giving in on the backstop. Making some concessions there and getting the deal through parliament would remove the biggest threat from the process, which is an A50 cancellation. After that, we would be in the same situation as now, I.e. the UK begging for a trade agreement, but without any negotiating power, and without anything to threaten with. 

 

And I actually think that’s the EU’s current negotiating strategy. They will probably make some concessions last minute to achieve exactly that. They are just holding back until the last minute so that there’s more pressure and less chance to add other things to the negotiation. 

 

I'm a prince in Lagos, Nigeria and I want you to help me move $500million out of the country.

 

[aright]

3 hours ago, tomacht8 said:

I begrudge you.

20% cheaper?

Then the submerged British pound would have to rise again enormously. 

I love the Brexiteer economics.

"What has been underplayed however was that the pound was massively inflated just prior to the referendum and would have dropped significantly even if there had been a remain vote. It just couldn't stay that high. If you look at an exchange chart for the years preceding Brexit or went on holiday and bought Euros at that time, you wouldn't be huffing and puffing in comparison with today's exchange rates. Sure they are marginally lower but measuring the drop from a historic high is a bit misleading to say the least."

Measuring a drop from a historic high is political point scoring not economic analysis. If you are a Remainer, sure, bang on about it but if you are an economist you would be looking at trends over a period not short term fluctuations.

https://www.quora.com/How-much-did-the-British-Pound-devalue-since-Brexit

 

 

[tomacht8]

24 minutes ago, aright said:

"What has been underplayed however was that the pound was massively inflated just prior to the referendum and would have dropped significantly even if there had been a remain vote. It just couldn't stay that high. If you look at an exchange chart for the years preceding Brexit or went on holiday and bought Euros at that time, you wouldn't be huffing and puffing in comparison with today's exchange rates. Sure they are marginally lower but measuring the drop from a historic high is a bit misleading to say the least."

Measuring a drop from a historic high is political point scoring not economic analysis. If you are a Remainer, sure, bang on about it but if you are an economist you would be looking at trends over a period not short term fluctuations.

https://www.quora.com/How-much-did-the-British-Pound-devalue-since-Brexit

 

 

555. Beware what you say here. All those who have been living in thailand for several years know the currency development of the pound exactly.

[tomacht8]

4 hours ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

Correct. If there’s one thing the EU must be scared about, and one thing the UK has in terms of negotiating power, it’s the right to cancel A50. The biggest nightmare for the EU is not a no-deal; a big club can easily manage that. The biggest nightmare is ending up with that failed democracy, that divided nation and all its lunatics wracking our countries and blocking our future the same way they did with the UK. 

 

The number one priority for the EU now must be to get the UK out, so it cannot use the A50 cancellation anymore. The second priority would be to let the UK leave with a deal to make things easier. 

 

So, I am almost inclined to argue in favor of giving in on the backstop. Making some concessions there and getting the deal through parliament would remove the biggest threat from the process, which is an A50 cancellation. After that, we would be in the same situation as now, I.e. the UK begging for a trade agreement, but without any negotiating power, and without anything to threaten with. 

 

And I actually think that’s the EU’s current negotiating strategy. They will probably make some concessions last minute to achieve exactly that. They are just holding back until the last minute so that there’s more pressure and less chance to add other things to the negotiation. 

A very interesting theory.

The EU calculates the scenarios there as well as the UK / Brexit.

The financial damage calculations of the departure of the UK are as well as the positive calculation.

 

What's on the plus side for the EU?

How many companies will / need to move their location to the EU in the short, medium and long term?

What tax revenues are expected?

Which capital flows can be expected?

Which investment projects are to be expected?

It is very easy to shop for something cheap. The bottleneck is today on the sales side. The supply is greater than the demand. Only those who can sell value-added and get the order from the market is the winner. 

 

The fact that the UK voluntarily gives up his unproblematic market access to the largest market also offers opportunities for the remaining 27 market partners.

No question.

 

These scenarios have certainly been calculated internally by the EU too.

 

 

Edited February 15, 2019 by tomacht8

[aright]

26 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

555. Beware what you say here. All those who have been living in thailand for several years know the currency development of the pound exactly.

I sympathize with all my friends living in Thailand who are having an out of money experience, and I know a few. Fortunately those of us who live in the UK don't pay our bills in thai baht and as far as I know money traders don't base their decisions on sterling/euro/dollar rates by consulting the thai baht first.

 

[tomacht8]

1 minute ago, aright said:

I sympathize with all my friends living in Thailand who are having an out of money experience, and I know a few. Fortunately those of us who live in the UK don't pay our bills in thai baht and as far as I know money traders don't base their decisions on sterling/euro/dollar rates by consulting the thai baht first.

 

Good for you.

Everything is in perfect order. So the British Pound is stable to all major currencies within the last 10, 5, 2 years?

Do not be ridiculous.

Maybe you should get some charts from your moneytrader friends first.

[aright]

1 minute ago, tomacht8 said:

Good for you.

Everything is in perfect order. So the British Pound is stable to all major currencies within the last 10, 5, 2 years?

Do not be ridiculous.

Maybe you should get some charts from your moneytrader friends first.

Perhaps you could point me to the post and sentence where I said that. 

[tomacht8]

19 minutes ago, aright said:

Perhaps you could point me to the post and sentence where I said that. 

Is this a trick of illogical conversation, according to the motto who asks ....leads?

 

Where are we going?

To the cinema.

What they showing?

Quo vadis. 

What does it mean?

Where are we going.

To the cinema.

......

Edited February 15, 2019 by tomacht8

[Krataiboy]

54 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

555. Beware what you say here. All those who have been living in thailand for several years know the currency development of the pound exactly.

They will also, one assumes, be familiar with the "currency development" of the baht, last seen exiting the roof at warp speed.

 

 

[melvinmelvin]

6 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

Is this a trick of illogical conversation, according to the motto who asks ....leads?

 

Where are we going?

To the cinema.

What they showing?

Quo vadis. 

What does it mean?

Where are we going.

To the cinema.

......

where is the cinema?

In Whych street

Yes, in which street?

Yes, right, in Whych street.

 

[melvinmelvin]

guys, a question

 

I am now looking again at TMs latest HoC performance

 

I wonder

 

when you look at TMs face/front,

on the bench to the right of her, there is a relatively tall and slim chap

who is he?

 

 

[aright]

1 hour ago, tomacht8 said:

Good for you.

Everything is in perfect order. So the British Pound is stable to all major currencies within the last 10, 5, 2 years?

Do not be ridiculous.

Maybe you should get some charts from your moneytrader friends first.

 

43 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

Is this a trick of illogical conversation, according to the motto who asks ....leads?

 

Where are we going?

To the cinema.

What they showing?

Quo vadis. 

What does it mean?

Where are we going.

To the cinema.

......

Not in logical thought it doesn't but I accept that you find that difficult to understand. First you make a statement then ask a question, then respond to a reply I haven't given by saying

"Do not be ridiculous.

Maybe you should get some charts from your money trader friends first."

You had already made up your mind as to what I would say and you were completely wrong.

But to answer your question completely no I don't think sterling has been stable over the 10 years perhaps you can name me some major currencies that have.

[vogie]

24 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

guys, a question

 

I am now looking again at TMs latest HoC performance

 

I wonder

 

when you look at TMs face/front,

on the bench to the right of her, there is a relatively tall and slim chap

who is he?

 

 

Hammond to the right, Lidington left?

[aright]

Yes David Lidington MP for Aylesbury . 

[owl sees all]

28 minutes ago, aright said:

Yes David Lidington MP for Aylesbury . 

Should have been on Question Time last night!