Extreme Brexit could be worse than financial crisis for UK: BoE

[aright]

I missed it, I was in the grip of the grape at the time but will catch up on I Player. Anything to report?

[evadgib]

4 minutes ago, aright said:

I missed it, I was in the grip of the grape at the time but will catch up on I Player. Anything to report?

Mogg was on form but overall it wasn't a particularly gripping episode.

HTH

Edited February 15, 2019 by evadgib

[Jack100]

Any new trade deals this week ?

That clock is ticking ....

[CG1 Blue]

6 hours ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

Correct. If there’s one thing the EU must be scared about, and one thing the UK has in terms of negotiating power, it’s the right to cancel A50. The biggest nightmare for the EU is not a no-deal; a big club can easily manage that. The biggest nightmare is ending up with that failed democracy, that divided nation and all its lunatics wracking our countries and blocking our future the same way they did with the UK. 

 

The number one priority for the EU now must be to get the UK out, so it cannot use the A50 cancellation anymore. The second priority would be to let the UK leave with a deal to make things easier. 

 

So, I am almost inclined to argue in favor of giving in on the backstop. Making some concessions there and getting the deal through parliament would remove the biggest threat from the process, which is an A50 cancellation. After that, we would be in the same situation as now, I.e. the UK begging for a trade agreement, but without any negotiating power, and without anything to threaten with. 

 

And I actually think that’s the EU’s current negotiating strategy. They will probably make some concessions last minute to achieve exactly that. They are just holding back until the last minute so that there’s more pressure and less chance to add other things to the negotiation. 

You could actually be right. Which is all the more reason why it was ridiculous to agree to pay £39bn to the EU without  a guaranteed trade deal. 

 

I disagree that the UK would have no negotiating power on a trade deal though. If the withdrawal agreement goes through your EU masters will be satisfied they achieved a sort of victory, and then give us a FTA because it's in both sides' interests. 

[aright]

1 minute ago, evadgib said:

Mogg was on form????

I just love Moggie. I know he isn't well liked by many would be if they could be individuals but he is an immense intellect, respected for his views on abortion although contrary to mine  and I have never seen him lost for words. 

[CG1 Blue]

3 hours ago, tomacht8 said:

555. Beware what you say here. All those who have been living in thailand for several years know the currency development of the pound exactly.

You're neglecting the fact that the THB has been growing in strength over the past 5 years or so. The recent correction of the pound (it was over valued) has added to the difficulties for UK expats in LOS, but it is not the main cause. 

[melvinmelvin]

18 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

You could actually be right. Which is all the more reason why it was ridiculous to agree to pay £39bn to the EU without  a guaranteed trade deal. 

 

I disagree that the UK would have no negotiating power on a trade deal though. If the withdrawal agreement goes through your EU masters will be satisfied they achieved a sort of victory, and then give us a FTA because it's in both sides' interests. 

don't make an issue of that

nobody is interested in that money any longer

 

39 b pound is small money in the UK and small money in the EU

 

events have overtaken interest in that sum long ago

 

now it just serves as a debate trigger

 

 

Edited February 15, 2019 by melvinmelvin

[aright]

Spanish prime minister calls snap election after budget fails to pass

• Spain will elect a new government after the Socialist Workers' Party failed to pass its 2019 budget.
• The vote will be held on the April 28th.
• The door could now open for a radical right-wing party to take seats in the Spanish Congress.

This could present a major problem for Spain and the EU.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/15/spanish-prime-minister-calls-snap-election-after-budget-fails-to-pass.html

 

[vogie]

"We voted to leave, we didn't vote for a deal"

 

Hasn't Fiona Bruce done a really good job in taking over from David Dimbleby, 3 or 4 shows in and she is putting her mark on the show already.

 

 

 

[melvinmelvin]

21 minutes ago, aright said:

Spanish prime minister calls snap election after budget fails to pass

• Spain will elect a new government after the Socialist Workers' Party failed to pass its 2019 budget.
• The vote will be held on the April 28th.
• The door could now open for a radical right-wing party to take seats in the Spanish Congress.

This could present a major problem for Spain and the EU.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/15/spanish-prime-minister-calls-snap-election-after-budget-fails-to-pass.html

 

 

and what would the possible bearings be on Spain and Gib?

and Castilla and the Catalan separatists?

 

 

Edited February 15, 2019 by melvinmelvin

[tomacht8]

59 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

You're neglecting the fact that the THB has been growing in strength over the past 5 years or so. The recent correction of the pound (it was over valued) has added to the difficulties for UK expats in LOS, but it is not the main cause. 

You Brexit boys are great.
Enclosed 5 charts (all 3 years viewing)

Coincidentally, the depreciation of the British pound begins exactly with the Brexit issue.
On Brexit day (R.Day) it looks like the Eiger north face. -22,1
The Euro Thaibaht course also falls, but much later due to the lack of clarity. -11,5
Compared to the pound, the euro has won since Brexit. +13,7
The GBP on the Singapore Dollar Chart shows structures similar to the GBP - Thai Chart. -14
That the Thai Baht is very strong against the Euro and GBP is clear, but Brexit has a very large share in the devaluation of the British pound. Big events are reflected in Charts.

 

Edited February 15, 2019 by tomacht8

[tomacht8]

2 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

You're neglecting the fact that the THB has been growing in strength over the past 5 years or so. The recent correction of the pound (it was over valued) has added to the difficulties for UK expats in LOS, but it is not the main cause. 

Finally, a chart for our friends from the UK who live in southern europe.
And I am sorry to hear that some / many were not allowed to take part in the referendum. There is probably some 10? - 15? Year rule.
Anyway.
There are already some 100,000 involved.
The British pound has plummeted to the euro since the Brexit issue.
It's not just about the Thai residents.
- 12,1%
Since the buns for UK pensioners and UK tourists have become a bit more expensive.

Edited February 15, 2019 by tomacht8

[Krataiboy]

2 hours ago, vogie said:

"We voted to leave, we didn't vote for a deal"

 

Hasn't Fiona Bruce done a really good job in taking over from David Dimbleby, 3 or 4 shows in and she is putting her mark on the show already.

 

. . . as only to be expected from yet another well-heeled, cut-glass-accented Establishment shill.

 

With a salary of half a milion quid a year, and an estimated net worth of around three million dollars, don't expect to see Fiona manning the BBC Equal Pay picket lines any time soon.  

 

 

Edited February 15, 2019 by Krataiboy

[CG1 Blue]

2 hours ago, tomacht8 said:

You Brexit boys are great.
Enclosed 5 charts (all 3 years viewing)

Coincidentally, the depreciation of the British pound begins exactly with the Brexit issue.
On Brexit day (R.Day) it looks like the Eiger north face. -22,1
The Euro Thaibaht course also falls, but much later due to the lack of clarity. -11,5
Compared to the pound, the euro has won since Brexit. +13,7
The GBP on the Singapore Dollar Chart shows structures similar to the GBP - Thai Chart. -14
That the Thai Baht is very strong against the Euro and GBP is clear, but Brexit has a very large share in the devaluation of the British pound. Big events are reflected in Charts.

 

I agree the pound fell after the referendum - I don't dispute that. The pound was over valued and was due a fall.  The Leave vote fast forwarded that fall, and made it more severe.  I don't deny that. There is 'uncertainty' priced into the current GBP rate, and once certainty returns Sterling will be a bit stronger. 

But you're missing the THB performance globally, which I'm sure you know is measured versus the USD. 

 

Here is the THB since mid 2015:

 

 

Edited February 15, 2019 by CG1 Blue

[nauseus]

3 hours ago, tomacht8 said:

You Brexit boys are great.
Enclosed 5 charts (all 3 years viewing)

Coincidentally, the depreciation of the British pound begins exactly with the Brexit issue.
On Brexit day (R.Day) it looks like the Eiger north face. -22,1
The Euro Thaibaht course also falls, but much later due to the lack of clarity. -11,5
Compared to the pound, the euro has won since Brexit. +13,7
The GBP on the Singapore Dollar Chart shows structures similar to the GBP - Thai Chart. -14
That the Thai Baht is very strong against the Euro and GBP is clear, but Brexit has a very large share in the devaluation of the British pound. Big events are reflected in Charts.

 

And you have conveniently started your charts from early 2016. 

Edited February 15, 2019 by nauseus

[tomacht8]

2 minutes ago, nauseus said:

And you have conveniently started your charts from early 2016. 

From the referendum year 2016. It's clear.
What should I do with charts from the Greece Euro Crisis or the 30 Years War.
Historical charts are interesting for historians.
But the framework data is changing rapidly.
A three year period involving the considered Event makes sense.
That the pound stood much better when Nixon was discontinued; that is clear for me.
May you can do also post some Charts?
Do not be so lazy.

[tomacht8]

40 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

I agree the pound fell after the referendum - I don't dispute that. The pound was over valued and was due a fall.  The Leave vote fast forwarded that fall, and made it more severe.  I don't deny that. There is 'uncertainty' priced into the current GBP rate, and once certainty returns Sterling will be a bit stronger. 

But you're missing the THB performance globally, which I'm sure you know is measured versus the USD. 

 

Here is the THB since mid 2015:

 

 

Now draw a result.
Please interpret it!

[sanemax]

8 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

From the referendum year 2016. It's clear.
What should I do with charts from the Greece Euro Crisis or the 30 Years War.
Historical charts are interesting for historians.
But the framework data is changing rapidly.
A three year period involving the considered Event makes sense.
That the pound stood much better when Nixon was discontinued; that is clear for me.
May you can do also post some Charts?
Do not be so lazy.

The Pound went down to 44 Baht in 2013

[tebee]

Reality Bites.

 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-12/brexit-s-project-fear-has-just-become-reality

[tomacht8]

5 minutes ago, sanemax said:

The Pound went down to 44 Baht in 2013

And it come back?
Between 2013 and 2016?
Now u have under 40.
+ the price increases in Thailand (Inflation) since 2013.
Anyone who is not satisfied in the UK with the money and income should ask their government.
The UK has one of the highest per capita income in the EU.
Only with the distribution of the cake does it work internally in the UK not so well.

[sanemax]

4 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

And it come back?
Between 2013 and 2016?
Now u have under 40.
+ the price increases in Thailand (Inflation) since 2013.
Anyone who is not satisfied in the UK with the money and income should ask their government.
The UK has one of the highest per capita income in the EU.
Only with the distribution of the cake does it work internally in the UK not so well.

My point was the currencies do fluctuate and the Pound /Baht exchange rate is only relevant to retired Brits in Thailand

[tomacht8]

4 minutes ago, sanemax said:

My point was the currencies do fluctuate and the Pound /Baht exchange rate is only relevant to retired Brits in Thailand

Ok then we'll cut the purchase prices for rice, pineapple, coconut milk, inflown vegetables, skimps, sea fish, chili, garlic and sugar from a rather minor trading partner

Edited February 15, 2019 by tomacht8

[SheungWan]

17 minutes ago, sanemax said:

My point was the currencies do fluctuate and the Pound /Baht exchange rate is only relevant to retired Brits in Thailand

I'm reminded of Sgt Rock who predicted that Sterling was going to bounce back in October.....2016.

[SheungWan]

1 hour ago, Krataiboy said:

. . . as only to be expected from yet another well-heeled, cut-glass-accented Establishment shill.

With a salary of half a milion quid a year, and an estimated net worth of around three million dollars, don't expect to see Fiona manning the BBC Equal Pay picket lines any time soon.  

Coming from a Rees-Mogg fan near you.

[SheungWan]

28 minutes ago, sanemax said:

My point was the currencies do fluctuate and the Pound /Baht exchange rate is only relevant to retired Brits in Thailand

So talk us through GBPEUR.

[tomacht8]

12 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

I'm reminded of Sgt Rock who predicted that Sterling was going to bounce back in October.....2016.

I remember him well.
Was a real asset to the multiple Brexit forums.
Razor-sharp.

Now we only have to deal with the rearguard.

[SheungWan]

The Hard Brexiteers have never been able to make up their mind which story to tell about Sterling and Brexit. Sometimes the same Brexiteer will jump around whichever explanation suits them on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday etc. Its either:

1. Denial. Brexit has had no effect on Sterling, or

2. Semi-denial: yes, Brexit has had an effect, but Sterling will bounce back afterwards, or

3. Acceptance-but: Sterling was over-valued anyway and Brexit was just a trigger, or

4. We-don't care: Its good for Sterling and will stimulate exports, or

5. Limited-effect: It only affects expats so it doesn't matter.

Edited February 15, 2019 by SheungWan

[sanemax]

Just now, SheungWan said:

The Hard Brexiteers have never been able to make up their mind which story to tell about Sterling and Brexit. Sometimes the same Brexiteer will jump around whichever explanation suits them on Monday, Tuesday, wenesday etc. Its either:

1. Denial. Brexit has had no effect on Sterling, or

2. Semi-denial: yes, Brexit has had an effect, but Sterling will bounce back afterwards, or

3. Acceptance-but: Sterling was over-valued anyway and Brexit was just a trigger.

4. We-don't care: Its good for Sterling and will stimulate exports.

5. Limited-effect: It only affects expats so it doesn't matter.

Yes, different people have posted different things .

What is your point ?

That people have differing opinions ?

[tomacht8]

5 minutes ago, sanemax said:

Yes, different people have posted different things .

What is your point ?

That people have differing opinions ?

In this case, there are not any opinions.
There are only Facts.

[sanemax]

Just now, tomacht8 said:

In this case, there are not any opinions.
There are only Facts.

"Sterling will bounce back" , isnt  fact , its an opinion