Extreme Brexit could be worse than financial crisis for UK: BoE

[bomber]

51 minutes ago, nontabury said:

Obviously unbiased, as it’s from the E.u.

But I must admit there will be some redundancies, due to our leaving this so called onion.

 

 

pretty pathetic to be fair

[SheungWan]

4 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

what does overvalued mean?

currency guys sell/buy currency according to their fancies

same with banks dealing with foreign currency

price of quid? demand-supply

what is overvalued?

There is of course the Economist Big Mac Index which signifies whether a currency is out of sync with its purchasing power parity. 

[bomber]

3 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

It just means that if you look at all the fundamentals it should be lower. Same with shares. People are paid a lot of money to spot overvalued and undervalued companies. Demand for shares can inflate the share price beyond it's fundamental value. 

The pound probably stays relatively high because globally it is seen as a safe currency. 

are you for real, the pound a safe currency ????  you are on drugs,its not even a debate now.OMG this is getting funny now,you need help,if the pound is a safe currency please name the unsafe ones

[SheungWan]

3 minutes ago, bomber said:

pretty pathetic to be fair

There is a certain type of Brexiteer who childishly think that copying and pasting some big font slogan establishes an argument's credentials. Its just more variations of rubbish on the side of the campaign bus we saw in the referendum campaign.

[bomber]

2 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

There is a certain type of Brexiteer who childishly think that copying and pasting some big font slogan establishes an argument's credentials. Its just more variations of rubbish on the side of the campaign bus we saw in the referendum campaign.

benefit scroungers who never leave the UK will always be fooled.

[Chelseafan]

4 minutes ago, bomber said:

are you for real, the pound a safe currency ????  you are on drugs,its not even a debate now.OMG this is getting funny now,you need help,if the pound is a safe currency please name the unsafe ones

Rupee, Rouble, Most African currencies just to name a few.

 

[SheungWan]

3 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

It just means that if you look at all the fundamentals it should be lower. Same with shares. People are paid a lot of money to spot overvalued and undervalued companies. Demand for shares can inflate the share price beyond it's fundamental value. 

The pound probably stays relatively high because globally it is seen as a safe currency. 

All FX trades are zero-sum where those who are selling a currency have someone taking the other side of that trade. Now the issue for expats is that those whose assets are solely determined in Sterling are exposed to whichever way the currency goes. Put very simply, down with Hard Brexit and up with Soft Brexit. The question re Hard Brexit is how far and how long the downward pressure will prevail. In practice, the currency will dictate the practical implications of political views translated into personal economic practice. To summarise, it matters little whether you are a Leaver or Remainer expat in your opinions if your currency exposure is the same. Lesson to be learned? Watch what people do or don't do over and above what they say, assuming that they are and have been in a position to make decisions.

[bomber]

8 minutes ago, Chelseafan said:

Rupee, Rouble, Most African currencies just to name a few.

 

my point proven,hows about you naming some major currencies,  i await

[bomber]

3 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

All FX trades are zero-sum where those who are selling a currency have someone taking the other side of that trade. Now the issue for expats is that those whose assets are solely determined in Sterling are exposed to whichever way the currency goes. Put very simply, down with Hard Brexit and up with Soft Brexit. The question re Hard Brexit is how far and how long the downward pressure will prevail. In practice, the currency will dictate the practical implications of political views translated into personal economic practice. To summarise, it matters little whether you are a Leaver or Remainer expat in your opinions if your currency exposure is the same. Lesson to be learned? Watch what people do or don't do over and above what they say, assuming that they are and have been in a position to make decisions.

too many on here just think the pound will correct itself in a few years,they are like the people on other sites who said the pound would climb back to 50bt before xmas 2016,i said otherwise and was called the doom merchant,its now 40 or just under,and as nigel would say "not laffing now are they" ????????????????????

[bomber]

17 minutes ago, Chelseafan said:

Rupee, Rouble, Most African currencies just to name a few.

 

pound is not quite there YET,be patient

[SheungWan]

The argument about whether Sterling is a safe currency is not totally useful. Sterling certainly used to be a reserve currency and that influence has waned over the years. I would certainly say that for an expat with savings, overexposure to Sterling is probably not wise right now. The risk is too high. Does that make Sterling unsafe? Well yes to a certain degree and the risk of Hard Brexit doesn't help. 

Edited February 17, 2019 by SheungWan

[bomber]

8 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

The argument about whether Sterling is a safe currency is not totally useful. Sterling certainly used to be a reserve currency and that influence has waned over the years. I would certainly say that for an expat with savings, overexposure to Sterling is probably not wise right now. The risk is too high. Does that make Sterling unsafe? Well yes to a certain degree and the risk of Hard Brexit doesn't help. 

its never been a safe currency,its had its moments yes but these days the traders judge its value on the nations future outlook,maybe it shouldnd be like that but that is the way it is and wont change in my lifetime.

[SheungWan]

7 minutes ago, bomber said:

too many on here just think the pound will correct itself in a few years,they are like the people on other sites who said the pound would climb back to 50bt before xmas 2016,i said otherwise and was called the doom merchant,its now 40 or just under,and as nigel would say "not laffing now are they" ????????????????????

They are entitled to think that and maybe they will be right, but it looks too much a long shot from here. Better to look for that bounce back and sell on a soft Brexit outcome. Further out, the UK is looking somewhat disfunctional, so only limited windows for hedging out IMHO.

[Chelseafan]

35 minutes ago, bomber said:

my point proven,hows about you naming some major currencies,  i await

Pound still rates strong among most currencies...for now

 

https://fxssi.com/top-10-of-the-strongest-world-currencies-in-current-year

 

[Chelseafan]

31 minutes ago, bomber said:

its never been a safe currency,its had its moments yes but these days the traders judge its value on the nations future outlook,maybe it shouldnd be like that but that is the way it is and wont change in my lifetime.

It's pretty much always been a safe currency. What are you on about?

 

Granted it's lost some of its shine over the past years but I would bet than once the deal has been done we can start seeing $1.40+. Whats changed over the past 30 years or so is how much stronger some of the SE Asian currencies have become in particular the Singapore dollar and as most of us on here are concerned, the Thai Baht.

 

I'm no economist but I reckon the Baht is strong due to all the Chinese money coming in....Not good for exports though

 

 

Edited February 17, 2019 by Chelseafan

[melvinmelvin]

2 hours ago, nontabury said:

Obviously unbiased, as it’s from the E.u.

But I must admit there will be some redundancies, due to our leaving this so called onion.

 

 

 

reminds me of;

 

 

[yogi100]

52 minutes ago, Chelseafan said:

It's pretty much always been a safe currency. What are you on about?

 

Granted it's lost some of its shine over the past years but I would bet than once the deal has been done we can start seeing $1.40+. Whats changed over the past 30 years or so is how much stronger some of the SE Asian currencies have become in particular the Singapore dollar and as most of us on here are concerned, the Thai Baht.

 

I'm no economist but I reckon the Baht is strong due to all the Chinese money coming in....Not good for exports though

 

 

The strongest the GBP has been against the Baht in the last 35 years has been under the Labour Governments of Blair and Brown.

 

The weakest it's been has been under the Tory governments of Thatcher, CMD and May.

 

You ex pats should think on that and contrary to popular belief and the vilification that the press heaps on the sharing of wealth through taxation hope for another Labour government.

 

When the working people have more available cash the general economy improves because more cash gets spent. When a Tory govt strives to improve only the lot of the already rich the economy goes downhill.

 

According to Macmillan in the 1960s the British people had never had it so good. That was years before the EU had ever been heard of.

[Chelseafan]

3 minutes ago, yogi100 said:

The strongest the GBP has been against the Baht in the last 35 years has been under the Labour Governments of Blair and Brown.

 

The weakest it's been has been under the Tory governments of Thatcher, CMD and May.

 

You ex pats should think on that and contrary to popular belief and the vilification that the press heaps on the sharing of wealth through taxation hope for another Labour government.

 

When the working people have more available cash the general economy improves because more cash gets spent. When a Tory govt strives to improve only the lot of the already rich the economy goes downhill.

 

According to Macmillan in the 1960s the British people had never had it so good. That was years before the EU had ever been heard of.

I beg to differ. Labour usually come in on the back of Tory Fiscal policies that have generally strengthened the economy only then to <deleted> it all up again. From memory the  baht was the strongest around 1997/98 after the Asian crash and running around 90+ to the pound. Nothing to do our our government.

 

[yogi100]

2 minutes ago, Chelseafan said:

I beg to differ. Labour usually come in on the back of Tory Fiscal policies that have generally strengthened the economy only then to <deleted> it all up again. From memory the  baht was the strongest around 1997/98 after the Asian crash and running around 90+ to the pound. Nothing to do our our government.

 

 

Check the charts on the internet while Maggie was boss and after CMD took the helm. 

 

The GBP hit 90 baht for just a couple of days which was a flash in the pan. It was hardly 'running around 90+ to the pound'.

 

The fact remains that regardless of other circumstances the weakest the GBP has been for over the last third of a century has been under the Tory governments of Thatcher, CMD and May. It hardly bears out the supposition that the economy thrives under a Tory govt.

 

In spite of what the media try and kid us into believing economies are built around the working man and if he is not doing well his country's economy won't either.

 

A currency needs to circulate to remain strong. When the ordinary citizen is working and spending all is well. When he loses his work it all goes down the pan.

 

The importation of cheap labour also has an effect on the economy as when a manual worker loses his job to an Eastern European those earnings are sent off out of circulation to Poland and Romania etc.

 

And then the rest of us have to fork out to keep our man on the dole and quite often his family as well.

 

So the GBP loses it's former value on the world's market but businessmen benefit from the pool of cheap labour. Amazon and Starbucks do not fund any resulting shortages of cash. You and me do.

[Chelseafan]

10 minutes ago, yogi100 said:

 

Check the charts on the internet while Maggie was boss and after CMD took the helm. 

 

The GBP hit 90 baht for just a couple of days which was a flash in the pan. It was hardly 'running around 90+ to the pound'.

 

The fact remains that regardless of other circumstances the weakest the GBP has been for over the last third of a century has been under the Tory governments of Thatcher, CMD and May. It hardly bears out the supposition that the economy thrives under a Tory govt.

 

In spite of what the media try and kid us into believing economies are built around the working man and if he is not doing well his country's economy won't either.

 

A currency needs to circulate to remain strong. When the ordinary citizen is working and spending all is well. When he loses his work it all goes down the pan.

 

The importation of cheap labour also has an effect on the economy as when a manual worker loses his job to an Eastern European those earnings are sent off out of circulation to Poland and Romania etc.

 

And then the rest of us have to fork out to keep our man on the dole and quite often his family as well.

 

So the GBP loses it's former value on the world's market but businessmen benefit from the pool of cheap labour. Amazon and Starbucks do not fund any resulting shortages of cash. You and me do.

Your whole premise is based on how strong the baht is depending on whether a Tory or labour government is in power. Seriously!

And the baht was in the 70-90 range for over 5 years or so...I would dig out the data but honestly I can't be arsed!

 

 

Edited February 17, 2019 by Chelseafan

[CG1 Blue]

3 hours ago, bomber said:

are you for real, the pound a safe currency ????  you are on drugs,its not even a debate now.OMG this is getting funny now,you need help,if the pound is a safe currency please name the unsafe ones

When i read your replies I often think I must be on drugs. 

[nauseus]

4 hours ago, Chelseafan said:

I beg to differ. Labour usually come in on the back of Tory Fiscal policies that have generally strengthened the economy only then to <deleted> it all up again. From memory the  baht was the strongest around 1997/98 after the Asian crash and running around 90+ to the pound. Nothing to do our our government.

 

Correct on both points. Labour under Corbyn would borrow and push debt up again for a temporary feel-good factor but eventually bring about national bankruptcy. The Pound hit 90 Baht for one day early in 1998 and was 86+ for a few amazing days. 

[yodsak]

4 hours ago, Chelseafan said:

Your whole premise is based on how strong the baht is depending on whether a Tory or labour government is in power. Seriously!

And the baht was in the 70-90 range for over 5 years or so...I would dig out the data but honestly I can't be arsed!

 

 

 

 

there you go

[yodsak]

 hit 90 twice.  and over 80 for 1 mth only

[nauseus]

8 minutes ago, yodsak said:

 hit 90 twice.  and over 80 for 1 mth only

Ah. Happy days.

[yogi100]

5 hours ago, Chelseafan said:

Your whole premise is based on how strong the baht is depending on whether a Tory or labour government is in power. Seriously!

And the baht was in the 70-90 range for over 5 years or so...I would dig out the data but honestly I can't be arsed!

 

 

It hit 90 when the Asian economy crashed which was a one off!

It was never in the 70-90 range for over 5 years or so. It was in the lower 70s for a few years but never again went anywhere near the 80s let alone the 90s.

 

Data saying that it was in such a range for 5 years does not exist for you to try and dig out, that's why you can't be 'arsed'.

Edited February 18, 2019 by yogi100

[yodsak]

over 80 for 1 mth

1998 yearly average

Edited February 18, 2019 by yodsak

[billd766]

13 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

It was overvalued. Have a read of this. The key paragraph is here:

 

In February, the International Monetary Fund said the sterling was overvalued by somewhere between 5% and 15% in 2015. Just before the referendum, the IMF put the over-valuation slightly higher, saying that sterling was overvalued by between 5% and 20% in 2015. Other experts, like the former governor of the Bank of England and the IMF, have agreed that sterling was overvalued.

 

https://fullfact.org/economy/exchange-rates-and-imf/

 

Please stop confusing bomber with facts and link.

 

He actually works for the BoE and therefore you must take everything he posts as the absolute truth. ????

[yogi100]

1 hour ago, nauseus said:

Correct on both points. Labour under Corbyn would borrow and push debt up again for a temporary feel-good factor but eventually bring about national bankruptcy. The Pound hit 90 Baht for one day early in 1998 and was 86+ for a few amazing days. 

You can't compare Jeremy Corbyn with Tony Blair. Even the most ardent old style labour voters fear Corbyn getting into number 10.

 

Like many others I hate Blair for getting our boys killed for no reason in Iraq and Afghanistan but there is no question about his boosting our economy. His military ambitions and that crow of a wife of his led to his downfall.

[billd766]

40 minutes ago, yogi100 said:

It hit 90 when the Asian economy crashed which was a one off!

It was never in the 70-90 range for over 5 years or so. It was in the lower 70s for a few years but never again went anywhere near the 80s let alone the 90s.

 

Data saying that it was in such a range for 5 years does not exist for you to try and dig out, that's why you can't be 'arsed'.

Have a look here at the monthly forex rate GBP/THB from January 1990 until January 2019.

 

https://www.ofx.com/en-au/forex-news/historical-exchange-rates/yearly-average-rates/