BoT reports bright economic outlook

[webfact]

BoT reports bright economic outlook

 

 

BANGKOK, 4 December 2018 (NNT) – According to the Bank of Thailand (BoT), the overall Thai economy is performing well, evidenced by an increase in private consumption in October.

The central bank has reported that private consumption in October surged by 6.5% from 2.5% in the previous month, thanks to an increase in the sales of motor vehicles and other “durable” goods. 

The bank also reported an increase in the income of Thai farmers of 3.9%, attributing the hike to agricultural productivity. 

As for exports, the sales of Thai products to foreign countries grew 8.4% in October compared to the previous month’s negative 5.5%. 

With that said, the tourism sector continued to shrink. In October, the number of Chinese tourists plummeted by 19.8% year-on-year, but the BoT expects the sector to recover soon as the government has been issuing measures to regain the trust of Chinese visitors. 

All in all, the central bank expects this year’s economic expansion to be around 4%. 

As for next year, the bank predicts that the country’s GDP will grow at a rate of 4.2%, to be driven by private investments, the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) project, and domestic spending which will be triggered by the social welfare card scheme and tax refunds.

 

-- nnt 2018-12-04

[ukrules]

 

With that said, the tourism sector continued to shrink. In October, the number of Chinese tourists plummeted by 19.8% year-on-year, but the BoT expects the sector to recover soon as the government has been issuing measures to regain the trust of Chinese visitors. 

Free double entry visas ????

 

Sure, that'll fix it!

[jabis]

[ezzra]

What i would have liked to see, is old BOT predictions dating from say, 10 years ago and compare them to what actually occurred and how accurate they were... but i'm sure no one dares to publish those data..

[Srikcir]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

increase in the income of Thai farmers of 3.9%, attributing the hike to agricultural productivity

Clueless to what this means.

Anyone?

In Thailand there's a tendency to characterize "revenue" as "income" which revenue is not necessarily. For sustainable farming one needs "profit or net income."

"Agricultural productivity" is just as vague. To me it seems to mean production volume. The articles I read in Thai Visa regarding sale of rice will typically identify foreign sales volume and gross revenues, but rarely (if at all) any mention of profit.
In 2014 rice farmers said they needed a 40% profit margin for sustainable rice paddy farming.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Rice-farmers-seek-40-profit-margin-30235737.html

I don't read anywhere since then that that level of profitability has been reached in the global marketplace.

[overherebc]

Can I question the 'durable' bit with regard to cars?

[Cadbury]

9 hours ago, webfact said:

".......the number of Chinese tourists plummeted by 19.8% year-on-year, but the BoT expects the sector to recover soon"

There has been a lot of excuse making in recent times for the loss of Chinese tourists. These excuses include the economic slowdown in China and the boat capsizing off of Phuket; but perhaps the primary reason is being deliberately left unsaid.

I have an involvement in tourism in S.E. Asia and just last week I had a meeting with a director of a large Thai travel company. The subject of the drop in Chinese tourists came up and I mentioned the boat tragedy and the loss of life. But she said no, that only had a relatively minor impact.

She said the primary reason was the government decimation of the Chinese zero dollar tourist industry in Thailand. They shut down what they could and sold off assets likes boats and buses and everything they could get their hands on. In the government's mind there were good reasons for doing this. But surely they must have expected some negative change to inbound numbers? Or would they?

My colleague says the boat certainly had some impact but there is another reason.

Chinese travel agents are now worried about their reputations because of the problems like loss of life and injury due the the dangers in Thailand so they not recommending Thailand and instead re-directing their customers to other countries like Japan, Vietnam and Laos where they might have less chance of being killed on the road or drowning or being slashed by propellers or being biffed by security guards. 

The Thai government and the tourism industry have themselves to blame for the large drop in Chinese tourists, albeit zero dollar tourists. Now they are bleating because the numbers are down; do they want the zero dollar tourists back again or not? 

They don't seem to have a clue really what they want and are running around like headless chooks trying to recover the situation. 

[DrTuner]

Quote

As for exports, the sales of Thai products to foreign countries grew 8.4% in October compared to the previous month’s negative 5.5%.

0.945 * 1.084 = 1.02438 = 2.438%. Percentages are cool, you can fool the brain-dead easily.

[quandow]

These stories are SUCH crap! I need to stop wasting time reading them and take up a more personally beneficial hobby such as chewing tin foil or scraping my head with a cheese grater.

[impulse]

8 hours ago, Cadbury said:

The Thai government and the tourism industry have themselves to blame for the large drop in Chinese tourists, albeit zero dollar tourists. Now they are bleating because the numbers are down; do they want the zero dollar tourists back again or not? 

They don't seem to have a clue really what they want and are running around like headless chooks trying to recover the situation. 

 

Perhaps they know that the enterprising Chinese will quickly figure out another way to make money without using zero $$$ tours? 

 

Sometimes, you need to take a short term hit to insure long term viability.  Let's face it, the resource was (and has been) being beaten to death by the sheer numbers of feet stomping on it.  Maybe fewer feet leaving behind more $$$ each will insure that Thai kids growing up today will still have something tourists want to come and see.