PM May should renegotiate Brexit deal if loses vote in parliament: Johnson

[mommysboy]

1 minute ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

WTO terms is no-deal hard Brexit.  After leaving with no-deal you are free to trade under the lower standard of WTO until such time as you can negotiate better terms bilaterally... but if the exit was no-deal brexit - there likely won't be better terms than WTO with the EU for a while (and it would still be worse than what was negotiated).

MM is right in as much as EU/UK would have to agree a withdrawal deal.  That could include an agreement not to do a trade deal.  It's the only option left in reality.  

 

Why? Because Brexit demands that you UK regains sovereignty.  As you pointed out, doing any more advanced type of trade deal requires ceding independence, particularly where EU is concerned.

 

 

 

 

[tebee]

Any trade deal means ceding independence to a certain extent, if you want absolute independence look to the North Korean model.

[evadgib]

8 hours ago, 7by7 said:

 Perhaps you could provide us all with a link to the independent information you have seen which convinces you a convicted fraudster and known liar is to be believed over numerous media outlets from all parts of the political spectrum; left and right wing, Remain and Brexit.

 

Even the ultra pro Brexit, anti May Sun only puts attendees at Yaxley-Lennon's demonstration in the thousands rather than the tens of thousands he claims!

My opinion was formed from info found in the public domain. My thoughts on TR/SY-L aren't relevant but I know what a govt stitch up looks like & his stance has certainly drawn their attention. 

[melvinmelvin]

9 hours ago, Basil B said:

 

 

The door is closed...

I dont think the door is closed, its ajar,

during a few days after eu heads of states gave their political nod to the deal

several pms expressed in interviews that changes could be envisaged if uk parliament said no.

 

what barnier juncker tusk says doesnt really count if heads of states says dance, they dance

 

 

 

[melvinmelvin]

 

life is hard being a PM - struggle a long time to agree on a deal

ends up with a deal, in fact the best deal there is, it is so good that nobody wants it

life is not fair on politicians

 

just saw in a Swedish MSM that they consider Brexit is in the process of becoming a farce

moderate language - indeed

 

guess many voters are becoming fed up/tired with politicians,

entering the "contempt of politicians" state

 

[mommysboy]

6 hours ago, tebee said:

Any trade deal means ceding independence to a certain extent, if you want absolute independence look to the North Korean model.

Well, of course some trade deal would need to follow.  The NK model could appeal to JRM however.

[bristolboy]

13 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

I dont think the door is closed, its ajar,

during a few days after eu heads of states gave their political nod to the deal

several pms expressed in interviews that changes could be envisaged if uk parliament said no.

 

what barnier juncker tusk says doesnt really count if heads of states says dance, they dance

 

 

 

Don't see what they can offer the UK that is in any way substantive.

[dick dasterdly]

15 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

life is hard being a PM - struggle a long time to agree on a deal

ends up with a deal, in fact the best deal there is, it is so good that nobody wants it

life is not fair on politicians

 

just saw in a Swedish MSM that they consider Brexit is in the process of becoming a farce

moderate language - indeed

 

guess many voters are becoming fed up/tired with politicians,

entering the "contempt of politicians" state

 

"guess many voters are becoming fed up/tired with politicians,

entering the "contempt of politicians" state"

 

Agree entirely, and it's hardly suprising.....  I've had nothing but contempt for the vast majority of politicians for decades. ☹️

[sotsira]

Credit where credit is due, at least TM has finally come to her senses and cancelled yesterday's vote realising that the backstop being indefinite is unacceptable.

 

If an agreement is reached to remove it, then this could actually get through parliament when it's eventually voted on.

As long as she gets supported by her Tory members & the DUP.

I feel the rest of the opposition members will vote against her

whatever she brings to the table.

[melvinmelvin]

37 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Don't see what they can offer the UK that is in any way substantive.

you certainly have a point there

 

if one ripped out this backstop/customs union stuff

I would guess it would relatively easy to make the deal

so that there is a clear visible end to the relationship with eu,

ie not open ended as  it is now

 

could be more palatable

(not to DUPers but to the rest of UK)

 

[Basil B]

12 hours ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

Most of the trading world has trade agreements with their most important trading partners...  which is often their neighbours...

We that is logical, and you do not have to be some brain box to understand that, but the Brexiteers seem hell bent on redesigning the wheel.

 

Just wait until they find out the earth is not flat...

[metisdead]

An off topic deflection post has been removed. 

[melvinmelvin]

9 hours ago, sotsira said:

Credit where credit is due, at least TM has finally come to her senses and cancelled yesterday's vote realising that the backstop being indefinite is unacceptable.

 

If an agreement is reached to remove it, then this could actually get through parliament when it's eventually voted on.

As long as she gets supported by her Tory members & the DUP.

I feel the rest of the opposition members will vote against her

whatever she brings to the table.

2

Credit where credit is due, at least TM has finally come to her senses and cancelled yesterday's vote realising that the backstop being indefinite is unacceptable.

 

what kind of a country is UK, I find this quite incredible that this should happen in a "normal" European country

TM is an unelected backstager - made PM in an obscure Tory meeting

 

and she instructs parliament on what they can discuss when and make up their minds on when?

just bloody incredible - UK is not far from Thailand and ChanOcha - unelected dictator ruling the HoC

the deal is on the table

it has been presented

parliament now has all the underlying legal considerations

 

parliament is not sovereign

 

mama says cannot discuss

mama says cannot decide on deal

probably the most important issue for UK for years

 

and the dictator says - parliament can't make up their minds on this cause I am busy

 

UK is a disgrace - pretty close to a dictatorship

silly unelected woman curtails the parliament  in what they can make up their minds about

 

jeeez

 

how do you expect to be taken seriously?

 

 

 

[mommysboy]

20 hours ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

The sum of all the trade gains by being outside of the EU will not make up for the loss of some trade ground to the EU.   Trade is often driven by proximity and familiarity (or low cost - but generally if that is the case it would go to countries that are actually low cost).  The driving force behind leaving the EU has more to do with the four freedoms (i.e. the protecting of part of the economy - mainly labour services) -- but not accepting that when you take something off the table the other side will remove other things from the table as well.  The belief that the UK would be able to maintain the relationship with the EU completely without being a member of the EU - was never possible.  There really are only 3 basic models: CETA (trade agreement only), being a member of the EU or being completely out.  The agreement as it stands now was always going to be a transitory agreement in one direction or another.  (the Norway option is no option since it is basically taking what the UK has now - and giving up representation - but accepting everything that is decided in the EU).

 

Any trade agreement in itself is a surrender of some sovereignty, sovereignty in a world that is so interconnected is an illusion.

 

There really is nothing to renegotiate - and those that think they are are not being realistic...  Any 'movement' that looks like it is some change or renegotiation - is more than likely just going to be a PR move - nothing of substance.

Would you want Canada to sign up to a deal with the USA-for instance- that severely curtailed its ability to forge trading relationships with the rest of the world? That created a border in Canada that was porous? That allowed Canada to be flooded with people from 27 countries?

[stag4]

6 hours ago, Basil B said:

We that is logical, and you do not have to be some brain box to understand that, but the Brexiteers seem hell bent on redesigning the wheel.

 

Just wait until they find out the earth is not flat...

What part of not wanting to be in a political union do you not understand?

[stag4]

6 hours ago, Basil B said:

We that is logical, and you do not have to be some brain box to understand that, but the Brexiteers seem hell bent on redesigning the wheel.

 

Just wait until they find out the earth is not flat...

What part of not wanting to be in a political union do you not understand?

[bkkcanuck8]

4 hours ago, mommysboy said:

Would you want Canada to sign up to a deal with the USA-for instance- that severely curtailed its ability to forge trading relationships with the rest of the world? That created a border in Canada that was porous? That allowed Canada to be flooded with people from 27 countries?

The 27 nations are are all of a reasonable level for the most part (or at least the bulk of them).  The European Union is a union of states, and the free movement of labour is one of those freedoms.  I would have no problem with Canada joining the EU (though the charter would prevent that since Canada is not in Europe and to be in the EU you must).  The UK is not curtailed from trading relationships with the world as such -- it has just been transferred to the EU as a whole to negotiate trade with foreign countries.  The EU as a group has much more clout than one individual nation.  Canada use to have a 'porous' border with the US.  In fact you could just walk across the border at my great-grandparents farm and do shopping or something and walk back across the farm land to home... it was not taken that seriously.  Border towns have/had services (for smaller communities) shared across the border - busing of students; fire fighters; other emergency responders... which have to a certain extent been disrupted by border stupidity.  Last I checked more than half the population of Toronto is foreign born... and to be quite honest it is a much more interesting city than when I was young...  at that time Toronto was pretty boring and I was more interested in moving to Montreal when I graduated...

[tebee]

 

[vinny41]

22 minutes ago, tebee said:

 

@City_Livery_SM

A #hardBrexit will destroy the last 40 years of economic progress in the UK. We must #Remain in order to prosper. We must #StopBrexit. #PeoplesVote if necessary

Somewhat Bias i Think

[Grouse]

9 hours ago, stag4 said:

What part of not wanting to be in a political union do you not understand?

The part that means the pound now dropping to 40.97

[tebee]

 

[My Thai Life]

3 hours ago, Grouse said:

The part that means the pound now dropping to 40.97

I'd say it's the uncertainty around Brexit that's driving the f-x rates, rather than Brexit itself.

 

And a huge amount of that uncertainty has been driven by remainers seeking to subvert the referendum result, including May. Carney is another prominent remainer whose politically motivated and carefully timed pronouncements on behalf of the BoE have not exactly helped f-x rates. The CBI have a certain amount of culpability too.

 

Had we gone for the free trade approach offered by Tusk and Barnier, and initially favoured by May circa her Lancaster House speech, there would have been much less uncertainty, and therefore much greater f-x stability.

 

You've been around long enough to know that the major depreciation of sterling against the baht occurred well before Brexit, and that there will be a correction once we get some semblance of certainty - as far as there ever is certainty in politics.

[bristolboy]

4 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

 

 

You've been around long enough to know that the major depreciation of sterling against the baht occurred well before Brexit, and that there will be a correction once we get some semblance of certainty - as far as there ever is certainty in politics.

Simply untrue. There were 2 major depreciations of the pound vs. the baht and the second was during the period encompassing brexit.

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=THB&view=10Y

[My Thai Life]

10 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Simply untrue. There were 2 major depreciations of the pound vs. the baht and the second was during the period encompassing brexit.

I suggest you look at the 10 year or longer trend.

[bristolboy]

1 minute ago, My Thai Life said:

I suggest you look at the 10 year or longer trend.

Had you followed the link I provided you would find that it takes you to a page that lets you look at the GBP vs. TB for the last 10 years.

[bristolboy]

23 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

You've been around long enough to know that the major depreciation of sterling against the baht occurred well before Brexit, and that there will be a correction once we get some semblance of certainty - as far as there ever is certainty in politics.

Here's a link to a graph that shows the value of the GPB vs. a basket of currencies of its most important trading partners. It can go back as far as 1984.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-effective-exchange-rates/GBP-history#charts

[My Thai Life]

1 minute ago, bristolboy said:

Had you followed the link I provided you would find that it takes you to a page that lets you look at the GBP vs. TB for the last 10 years.

Actually, I used that URL prior to my OP to confim the accuracy of my statement.

[bristolboy]

22 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

Actually, I used that URL prior to my OP to confim the accuracy of my statement.

???

[My Thai Life]

Exactly.

 

Now plot the Euro against the baht over the same period.

[bristolboy]

9 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

Exactly.

 

Now plot the Euro against the baht over the same period.

I don't know what your point is about the GPB vs. the Baht is. But the fact is that the graph clearly shows a sharp and up to now lasting decline in the GBP at the time of Brexit.