Thailand forecast: 2019 and beyond

[Brunolem]

Regular TV forum readers can learn quite a few things about their host country, and where it is heading, providing that they can separate the wheat from the chaff, and add a grain of salt(y humor) to the mix.

 

With that in mind, let's forecast...

 

1. Visa and administrative annoyances: bad and getting worse

 

Unless you have 25,000 to 30,000 USD, euros or pounds, but not baht, to spare (retirement visa) or to spend (elite visa), the search for the ideal visa will sooner or later send you into a state of obsession, or depression.

 

2. Thai women: stable with no improvement in sight

 

Unless you are one of those Thaivisa members (there seems to be many of them) who has hit the jackpot and found the perfect Thai woman, who masters English, has got a fine education and a well paying job, can cook anything, is relentless in bed, and has a brother that will tend your garden and fix the plumbing of your house, you are in for a rough ride.

 

A Thai woman will make you age at twice the normal speed, and go broke even faster, that is if you are lucky enough to avoid being beaten to a pulp while she will empty your wallet!

 

3. Local weather: warm and getting warmer

 

Thanks to the "very stable genius" (TM) presiding over the Land of the Free (not that free anymore), we know that climate change is a "Chinese hoax" (TM).

And yet, for some unknown reason, climate is changing in the Land of Smiles, and not for the better.

We are actually going through one of the warmest "winters" on record, after having one of the shortest rain season, and every year the cards are reshuffled and we never know what weather we gonna get...a major inconvenient for the farmer and the sunbather, not so much for the beerdrinker (lots of them apparently) who spends his days at a roadside bar, taking full advantage of the toxic emissions coming from the relentless traffic.

 

4. Traffic, road condition and safety: worse and getting worser

 

Thailand is number one (in deathtoll) and intends to remain there!

 

5. Real estate: bad and not getting better

 

Overbuilt, overpriced...the country is covered with unsalable condos, and more are to come.

If only the Chinese were Russians, they would buy anything at any price...and also pay 300 baht for a 300 meter taxi ride, as in the Extreme City...but unfortunately they are not.

 

6. Tourism: more and moar and moooaaar

 

The quest for always more always ends with the search for the lowest common denominator.

With 1.4 billion potential visitors, China has the Thai authorities salivating, never mind the fact that quantity and quality are two different things...something that is not taught in local universities.

 

Meanwhile, the Chinese have their own lines at the airport, while the Westerners have their own deportation cell!

 

7. Air travel

 

Suvarnabhumi airport has finally got its X ray floor, where potential terrorists, a.k.a. passengers, are dutifully searched, according to the standards developed by the Cheney regime in the early years of this wonderful century.

 

Don Mueang for its part has been taken over by Air Asia, the company where a 100 baht ticket ends up costing you 300 baht (reminds me of Amazon practices)...if you happen to travel with another company, say Nok Air, be ready to be late, very late...

 

Having said all that, why would anyone in one's right mind even consider to move to Thailand, you ask?

 

The answer is quite simple: because it is even worse in most other places, notably in the West!

 

 

 

 

[AlexRRR]

Worse in most other places? I don't think soooooo, jaded lollypop living on a budget is what you sound like, stop and smell the roses once in a while for a small price you can buy a bottle of rose scent that they stick in oil burners keep it near by you always, and a jolly good new year to you..

 

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, AlexRRR said:

jaded lollypop living on a budget is what you sound like

 

If I was not on a budget, like most of us mere mortals, I would not live in Thailand, or anywhere else for that matter. 

 

I would constantly travel the world, in first class obviously, following the seasons, the events, or my desires. 

 

 

[mauGR1]

That was a nice summary of the woes that are just behind the corner.

I thought that i was a pessimist, but i'm glad to be in good company.

After many years though, i have been going native a bit, so i'll just say "mai pen rai".

[connda]

On 12/29/2018 at 8:24 AM, Brunolem said:

Meanwhile, the Chinese have their own lines at the airport, while the Westerners have their own deportation cell!

[theguyfromanotherforum]

Guys who hit the "jackpot" and got an educated woman are nothing like you described in the op.

 

Sounds more like a slave which is a typical mindset of most Westerners here, so no wonder they get taken to the cleaners.

[meechai]

On 12/29/2018 at 8:24 AM, Brunolem said:

With that in mind, let's forecast...

 

I did a few months back make my forecast

 

Back when the first embassy decided to no longer do income verification

I said more would follow & then Mandatory Health Insurance for a 1 year extension would be next

 

The post was deleted I guess it was deemed off topic?

Though I see now topics run many pages long about such things & even a survey or two ????

 

[steve73]

16 minutes ago, meechai said:

 

I did a few months back make my forecast

 

Back when the first embassy decided to no longer do income verification

I said more would follow & then Mandatory Health Insurance for a 1 year extension would be next

 

The post was deleted I guess it was deemed off topic?

Though I see now topics run many pages long about such things & even a survey or two ????

 

I suspect your post was deleted so as not to give the "children" any more ideas as to how the expat farangs could be further exploited (obviously deleted too slowly). 

 

I bet (assuming such activities were allowed) if I was to predict that next they'll be asking all foreigners to wear coloured uniforms suited to each day of the week, and that the cost of said clothing would be (say) 5000bt for each day, then this post would also get deleted..........  ???? 

[khunPer]

On 12/29/2018 at 2:24 AM, Brunolem said:

Unless you are one of those Thaivisa members (there seems to be many of them) who has hit the jackpot and found the perfect Thai woman...

–you forgot that she's from a fine Chinese family...????

 

However, in general I'm happy and "look at the bright side of life", so I don't share all of your predictions; perhaps because I don't live in the capital area...????

[Brunolem]

2 hours ago, theguyfromanotherforum said:

Guys who hit the "jackpot" and got an educated woman are nothing like you described in the op.

 

Sounds more like a slave which is a typical mindset of most Westerners here, so no wonder they get taken to the cleaners.

Let me quote myself:

 

"who masters English, has got a fine education and a well paying job, can cook anything, is relentless in bed" 

 

I can't see anything here that relates to slavery... unless you think that women shouldn't cook, even though they are generally better at that than their male companions... 

[mauGR1]

22 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Let me quote myself:

 

"who masters English, has got a fine education and a well paying job, can cook anything, is relentless in bed" 

 

I can't see anything here that relates to slavery... unless you think that women shouldn't cook, even though they are generally better at that than their male companions... 

Have to disagree on that, to let a woman cook my meals can be as dangerous as letting her driving my car, but maybe i'm in the minority.????

[1FinickyOne]

On 12/29/2018 at 8:24 AM, Brunolem said:

Unless you are one of those Thaivisa members (there seems to be many of them) who has hit the jackpot and found the perfect Thai woman, who masters English, has got a fine education and a well paying job, can cook anything, is relentless in bed, and has a brother that will tend your garden and fix the plumbing of your house, you are in for a rough ride.

An interesting OP and you have a lot of guts to prognosticate the future... 

 

As to the endless moan abt Thai ladies, I often wonder why there is little mention of what the guy might bring to the table... other than a pension and a complaint about sharing it??? So many guys here can barely go out to the supermarket alone. 

 

They want a lady with limited education to have a mastery of English and yet what % of the guys can converse in Thai... this is Thailand - learn Thai if you can. I often find it interesting that the same guys who call their wives 'stupid' are the ones whose wives learn English while they can barely say a few words of Thai...

 

On 12/29/2018 at 5:50 PM, Brunolem said:

I would constantly travel the world, in first class obviously, following the seasons, the events, or my desires. 

 

I travelled a lot when younger and more energetic and even then it was tiring... sure, first class would make it better but I would rather stay in one [or two] place lately.. but, to each his own...

 

I think many of your predictions are on their way to fulfilment... happy new year and best of luck next year.

[Brunolem]

10 hours ago, kenk24 said:

An interesting OP and you have a lot of guts to prognosticate the future... 

 

As to the endless moan abt Thai ladies, I often wonder why there is little mention of what the guy might bring to the table... other than a pension and a complaint about sharing it??? So many guys here can barely go out to the supermarket alone. 

 

They want a lady with limited education to have a mastery of English and yet what % of the guys can converse in Thai... this is Thailand - learn Thai if you can. I often find it interesting that the same guys who call their wives 'stupid' are the ones whose wives learn English while they can barely say a few words of Thai...

 

I travelled a lot when younger and more energetic and even then it was tiring... sure, first class would make it better but I would rather stay in one [or two] place lately.. but, to each his own...

 

I think many of your predictions are on their way to fulfilment... happy new year and best of luck next year.

These are not really my predictions, but rather deductions made from reading TV Forum in 2018.

 

Yet, I also think that they reflect quite accurately what can be expected.

 

Upon arriving in Thailand, long ago, I taught myself the Thai language, including reading and writing.

 

I didn't push too far after I realized that everytime they were talking about numbers, which is often, they were talking about money, and also that they were repeating the same things over and over again (when the village chief makes an announcement over the village radio, he gives the date of the day about ten times in a couple of minutes).

 

While many foreigners bring little to their Thai companion, the truth is that many Thais can't make a difference between a worthy and an unworthy foreigner...to them, your value is how much you put on the table every month, never mind if you are a drunkard or a surgeon...

[1FinickyOne]

I think money plays a part in choice of a partner in most cultures... How many parents in the west prefer that their daughters marry the sensitive unemployed poet instead of the graduate from medical school... 

 

People talk about money everywhere. I have often wondered who worries more about money, rich people or poor? 

 

I have certainly found my immersion into village life and culture fascinating. 

[1FinickyOne]

I think money plays a part in choice of a partner in most cultures... How many parents in the west prefer that their daughters marry the sensitive unemployed poet instead of the graduate from medical school... 

 

People talk about money everywhere. I have often wondered who worries more about money, rich people or poor? 

 

I have certainly found my immersion into village life and culture fascinating. 

[rumak]

I am sorry for all the guys that do not find living here enjoyable.    I had ups and downs for sure trying to find out how to have a good life here. Lots of challenges, good and bad experiences, all the things that make for an interesting life.   I do not blame thailand or the people one bit...because i still find

the people where i live to be friendly and kind and non-confrontational.  It all came down to ME, learning

what i wanted and how to adjust.  That is the same recipe anywhere in the world (wherever you go...there

you are).   To the entitled its all one blame game.  IF this and if that. 

When i want intellectual stimulation all i have to do is come to this forum.   I get all the confrontations i need right here .     oh yeah    happy new year

Edited January 1, 2019 by rumak

[spidermike007]

Interesting post, and one could spend quite some time on the prognostications. I would put it quite simply. If they are able to oust the army, and get rid of incompetents like Prayuth, and find capable leaders who are able to at least marginally consider the interests of the people, things could improve. If not, the gross mismanagement, hyperbolic nationalism, total lack of vision, and extreme myopia will continue. And that is not going to be good for the nation, the people, or the ex-pats living here.

[JLCrab]

"I wish they'd decide once and for all which gang of hooligans constitutes the government of this country!"

 

from movie Doctor Zhivago (1965)

[Brunolem]

15 hours ago, rumak said:

I am sorry for all the guys that do not find living here enjoyable.    I had ups and downs for sure trying to find out how to have a good life here. Lots of challenges, good and bad experiences, all the things that make for an interesting life.   I do not blame thailand or the people one bit...because i still find

the people where i live to be friendly and kind and non-confrontational.  It all came down to ME, learning

what i wanted and how to adjust.  That is the same recipe anywhere in the world (wherever you go...there

you are).   To the entitled its all one blame game.  IF this and if that. 

When i want intellectual stimulation all i have to do is come to this forum.   I get all the confrontations i need right here .     oh yeah    happy new year

It is not about being happy or not, but about other people, with power, letting you enjoy your happiness... or not! 

 

When such people seem hell bent on making your life more difficult (changing visa rules, making a specific kind of insurance mandatory...) with each passing year, they spoil your happiness and bring sadness.

 

For example, it is painful to see how Westerners are treated, compared with Chinese. 

 

Westerners have been here for decades, either staying or coming back year after year... many have become part of the "landscape". 

 

Then suddenly, there is a Chinese fad, like there was a Russian fad during the previous decade. 

 

And, mark my words, like the Russians, the Chinese will disappear someday, almost overnight, because such are the fads. 

 

Meanwhile, the always reliable Westerners will have been treated like s.. t! No special lines for them at the airport arrival... discrimination anyone? 

 

Edited January 2, 2019 by Brunolem

[marcusarelus]

2 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

It is not about being happy or not, but about other people, with power, letting you enjoy your happiness... or not! 

 

When such people seem hell bent on making your life more difficult (changing visa rules, making a specific kind of insurance mandatory...) with each passing year, they spoil your happiness and bring sadness.

 

For example, it is painful to see how Westerners are treated, compared with Chinese. 

 

Westerners have been here for decades, either staying or coming back year after year... many have become part of the "landscape". 

 

Then suddenly, there is a Chinese fad, like there was a Russian fad during the previous decade. 

 

And, mark my words, like the Russians, the Chinese will disappear someday, almost overnight, because such are the fads. 

 

Meanwhile, the always reliable Westerners will have been treated like s.. t! No special lines for them at the airport arrival... discrimination anyone? 

 

The Westerners left because their currencies crashed relative to the baht.  It is what it is.  Because a couple of embassies got lazy and decided to take longer breaks and do less work for the same money is not really Thailand's fault now is it?   The Russians left for the same reason money. 

 

I live here because I get more bang for my buck than Crackerville Florida.  If I get a better deal next week I'll be there.  Ho hum what's new?

 

 

 

[rumak]

48 minutes ago, marcusarelus said:

It is not about being happy or not, but about other people, with power, letting you enjoy your happiness... or not! 

I wonder if anyone on TV ever gave much thought to how the average Thai sees us.

Driving around with our girls,   drinking beer,  laughing and carousing like the world was made

just for us.   Why do they think we're all rich?   Maybe cause a bus driver here makes like 12000 baht a month while retired farangs with similar backgrounds are driving SUVs and getting upwords to 100k a month in retirement.   IF YOU WERE THEM.....wouldn't you be just a little pissed off ?  Of course, they don't understand that once every 90 days we have to fill out a little form just to stay here. 

The world ain't fair :  but if it was you would all be a lot less happy !  

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, rumak said:

I wonder if anyone on TV ever gave much thought to how the average Thai sees us.

Driving around with our girls,   drinking beer,  laughing and carousing like the world was made

just for us.   Why do they think we're all rich?   Maybe cause a bus driver here makes like 12000 baht a month while retired farangs with similar backgrounds are driving SUVs and getting upwords to 100k a month in retirement.   IF YOU WERE THEM.....wouldn't you be just a little pissed off ?  Of course, they don't understand that once every 90 days we have to fill out a little form just to stay here. 

The world ain't fair :  but if it was you would all be a lot less happy !  

The average Thai doesn't live in Pattaya and similar places, and isn't witness to the horrors you describe.

 

Westerners in (real) Thailand are much more low key than their tourist traps' counterparts.

 

Meanwhile, the average Thai hasn't the sligtest idea of what a Westerner is making per month...in 20 years in the Land of Smiles, I haven't been asked once about my professional background, even less about my monthly income.

 

Finally, don't forget that 100,000 baht (3,000 dollars) is a lot here, but isn't that much back home once the all the mandatory deductions done.

[rumak]

21 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

The average Thai doesn't live in Pattaya and similar places, and isn't witness to the horrors you describe.

 

Westerners in (real) Thailand are much more low key than their tourist traps' counterparts.

 

Meanwhile, the average Thai hasn't the sligtest idea of what a Westerner is making per month...in 20 years in the Land of Smiles, I haven't been asked once about my professional background, even less about my monthly income.

 

Finally, don't forget that 100,000 baht (3,000 dollars) is a lot here, but isn't that much back home once the all the mandatory deductions done.

friendly response :

1.  horrors mostly in places like Pattaya, true.  BUT...my gf comes from a small poor village 30km from khon Kaen.   There are 8 nice homes built there by local girls who went to work in "restaurants" in Pattaya.

2. yes, true.   but when i make the odd trip out to CM....i usually witness some form of behavior by farang ranging from silly to arrogant.  I cringe but have learned to keep my mouth shut. I think the local thais

do the same.

3.The world has changed a lot.  Even small town folk have internet and know a lot more than before.

  True that they don't know exactly what westerners make.....but often someone will "know of" some farang who gets a large pension (and of course has built a large house) 

4. Of course the money is not a lot in Europe or the States.   THAT'S WHY THEY'RE HERE.  And that's why they feel superior to bash what they call the poor, illiterate thais .  Along with complaining about "all things thai".   In their home country they would be sitting home at night with the telly. And also want to say that many years ago when i would return to the States i was often treated at immig. with a level of disrespect that I have never encountered here.  The "interrogation" based on nothing more than my appearance and being single was sickening.  That was true discrimination.

 

summary:  there are IMO a minority of long term escapees from our homeland who have settled into fairly nice lives here.  Generally I think they are the best example of people that thais like.  The immig rules have changed a little, but over my 25 years here ....not much !  I think its a real bargain to pay not even a hundred dollars a year to be allowed to live here.  Yes, I need 800k in the bank   boohoohoo.  Is there any Western country you know of that will let people from any country  (over 50) go live there year round if they can put that equivalent in a bank acct ??   Before you mention the "hassles" of 90 day let me say that for me it is no big deal.  If it is a problem for some here than by all means look for a better alternative.    to quote Forrest Gump :  "and that's all i have to say about that "

Time to cut some grass..................

[Brunolem]

6 minutes ago, rumak said:

friendly response :

1.  horrors mostly in places like Pattaya, true.  BUT...my gf comes from a small poor village 30km from khon Kaen.   There are 8 nice homes built there by local girls who went to work in "restaurants" in Pattaya.

2. yes, true.   but when i make the odd trip out to CM....i usually witness some form of behavior by farang ranging from silly to arrogant.  I cringe but have learned to keep my mouth shut. I think the local thais

do the same.

3.The world has changed a lot.  Even small town folk have internet and know a lot more than before.

  True that they don't know exactly what westerners make.....but often someone will "know of" some farang who gets a large pension (and of course has built a large house) 

4. Of course the money is not a lot in Europe or the States.   THAT'S WHY THEY'RE HERE.  And that's why they feel superior to bash what they call the poor, illiterate thais .  Along with complaining about "all things thai".   In their home country they would be sitting home at night with the telly. And also want to say that many years ago when i would return to the States i was often treated at immig. with a level of disrespect that I have never encountered here.  The "interrogation" based on nothing more than my appearance and being single was sickening.  That was true discrimination.

 

summary:  there are IMO a minority of long term escapees from our homeland who have settled into fairly nice lives here.  Generally I think they are the best example of people that thais like.  The immig rules have changed a little, but over my 25 years here ....not much !  I think its a real bargain to pay not even a hundred dollars a year to be allowed to live here.  Yes, I need 800k in the bank   boohoohoo.  Is there any Western country you know of that will let people from any country  (over 50) go live there year round if they can put that equivalent in a bank acct ??   Before you mention the "hassles" of 90 day let me say that for me it is no big deal.  If it is a problem for some here than by all means look for a better alternative.    to quote Forrest Gump :  "and that's all i have to say about that "

Time to cut some grass..................

I agree on most of what you say... 

 

When it's all said and done, Thailand still offers many advantages, even if they tend to shrink year after year. 

For example, when I open the TV newsletter and see the real estate ads, I am often left wondering... 

Not long ago, paying 100,000 baht per sqm was only for the ultra luxury condos in central Bangkok, but now it is commonplace everywhere... 

 

When it comes to the visa rules and requirements, the trouble is not so much in what they are, on paper, but in how they are adapted and interpreted from one place to another. 

 

When it comes to the 90 day report, one can wonder why, after so many years, it is still not possible to do it online... I mean, this is not that complicated!

Probably much less complicated than an airport control system, or the soon to come control of the high speed rail system. 

Foreigners do not live necessarily close to an immigration office... for me it is a more than 100 km roundtrip, plus a big city to cross because the office happens to be on the opposite side of where I come from. 

[rumak]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

When it's all said and done, Thailand still offers many advantages, even if they tend to shrink year after year. 

I think its us that are beginning to shrink  (LOL).  Sounds like you, as I, are getting older and yes, things like this become more of a hassle.  For me,  I don't have any place else that would be better.  Actually, I also have a 100 km round trip for the 90 day.  Gets tiresome, but when i go i think of it as a day trip and do some shopping ( but i don't have a big city to cross).

Again, i do remind myself that I am lucky to live here , and finally, after many moves and adventures, just

enjoying the peace that is still available some places in Thailand.  Once one gets past the play (and pay) and maybe mistakes.... settling down is pretty good.  Long ago I lived in the boonies without TV or internet... now that was tough.  So some things are better.

My daughter lives in Canada........40 bucks for a simple meal out.  Three hundred to take out a wisdom tooth,

Ouch!   Now that hurts.