Suan Dusit poll shows people worried elections may not even be held

[janclaes47]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

the survey found that 48.46 per cent ranked election uncertainty as their top worry, saying they were afraid it might not happen at all. 

Their concerns are completely unfounded, as of course elections will happen..............only not sure if it will be in their lifetime.

 

 

Edited January 21, 2019 by janclaes47

[unamazedloso]

just start blowing stuff up in bkk already please ppl... youll never over throw an army government unless your true thais who love their country act. Im sick of hearing how good thailand is so lets see people go about fixing it already. im sick of seeing the stooges on my phone. 

[HalfLight]

1 hour ago, Rugon said:

Really, I hope you don't work as a stockbroker or financial analyst. Take a look at all the BMW's and Benz's around the streets, even upcountry.

Ah, well, the borrowing to buy a BMW or a Benz (would anyone buy a Mercedes-Benz these days, they're a pile of junk) is not an indicator of the economy, I would argue quite the reverse. I 'm relating more to the Thai in the villages. And they've not been doing too well at all.

 

Of course the government is going to look after the pooyay, that's what they were set up to do in the first place during the latest coup. What on earth is going on in your head?

 

The joy of living in Bangkok is you think there be dragons at the city limits. But it's wrong. The world neither starts nor ends at Bangkok.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 21, 2019 by HalfLight

[HalfLight]

1 hour ago, TKDfella said:

I don't want to appear selfish but I wonder what a Thai revolution would mean for us expats?

Sod all, except there'd be quite a lot of uneducated people running around making a lot of noise.

 

Same as now.

 

 

 

[Oziex1]

1 hour ago, Rugon said:

Really, I hope you don't work as a stockbroker or financial analyst. Take a look at all the BMW's and Benz's around the streets, even upcountry.

The luxury enjoyed by the few is not a reliable indicator of the health of the economy. It's just business as usual for the well off and connected, while the rest scramble for the scraps.

[Eligius]

I think the 'election' will eventually (after likely further delays) be held - but it will not be free and fair, nor will the claimed result honestly reflect the truth.

 

As for violent revolution: there are other ways of (non-violently) withdrawing one's consent from an undesirable 'government'. The masses of the people really do hold the power in their hands. After all, they are the true 'holders of sovereignty' in the nation of Thailand!

 

 

 

Edited January 21, 2019 by Eligius

[metisdead]

A troll post has been removed. 

[MaxLee]

Just holding out for that RESET Button.... 

[ramr]

3 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Rest easy. Doubt there will be a revolution like the Arab spring as wiser heads at the top of the food chain will purge the power crazy fraternity of generals and their allies in the privy council. Happening as we speak. 

 

If that's true, it won't be because of any altruistic concern for their own country or the bulk of its people.  It'll be because the generals are seen as overplaying their hands and threatening to ruin the gravy train for all the elites by creating the conditions for a no-holds-barred civil war.

 

Whatever apparent reforms or progress we'll see, it'll be as little as they think they can get away with to vent the pressure and bring things back down to a simmer.

 

But one day there will be an unforeseen external occurrence or they will miscalculate the public mood (not as likely, methinks, as there is more than one elite group and thus will tend to check and balance each other).  Or maybe one of their token show reforms or pieces of legislation will get out of their hands and take on a life of its own, with unintended and undeniable (even to Thais) consequences.  Likely some convergence/combination of all of it.

 

The Pandora's Box they desperately wish not to open is real knowledge of the outside world for the average Thai.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 21, 2019 by ramr
Clarity

[Eligius]

27 minutes ago, ramr said:

 

If that's true, it won't be because of any altruistic concern for their own country or the bulk of its people.  It'll be because the generals are seen as overplaying their hands and threatening to ruin the gravy train for all the elites by creating the conditions for a no-holds-barred civil war.

 

Whatever apparent reforms or progress we'll see, it'll be as little as they think they can get away with to vent the pressure and bring things back down to a simmer.

 

But one day there will be an unforeseen external occurrence or they will miscalculate the public mood (not as likely, methinks, as there is more than one elite group and thus will tend to check and balance each other).  Or maybe one of their token show reforms or pieces of legislation will get out of their hands and take on a life of its own, with unintended and undeniable (even to Thais) consequences.  Likely some convergence/combination of all of it.

 

The Pandora's Box they desperately wish not to open is real knowledge of the outside world for the average Thai.

 

 

 

 

Great post, Ramr.

'The Pandora's Box they desperately wish not to open is real knowledge of the outside world for the average Thai.' 

Yes, knowledge is power - or can be (if it is used) ....

 

Edited January 21, 2019 by Eligius

[JAG]

5 hours ago, HalfLight said:

The economy has been suffering for years already, despite the fairy-tales told by Somkid & Co. I can't remember seeing Thailand in more dire straits or when more people were walking about looking miserable, or when the classic signs of the accelerating disintegration of a society were more plentiful (petty and violent crime mainly).

 

When the Thai people decide they've had enough, I suppose blood will flow, but they've been propagandised into cowering for so long I doubt they'll ever do something about it, I suspect that ATM machine is now empty.

 

 

 

Whilst I am far from enthusiastic about any form of revolution or popular action to overthrow the junta - it will have to be far reaching to be effective - I am increasingly resigned to it being inevitable.

 

There will have to be some sort of catalyst which sparks a reaction, quite what that will be I don't know, but it will have to set off a reaction both amongst the politically aware and frustrated younger people, and those (working class both in Bangkok and the province's who have been disenfranchised and are now economically disadvantaged, to the extent of being left without any real hope, over the last few years of Junta rule. If (when) both these groups are roused then it will happen. The "establishment" reaction will be fierce, but their effective reach (military) is really limited to Bangkok and it's environs. If it does come to fighting there, then it will be messy but I am not sure that it will last very long. The Thai military - largely conscript and drawn from the class which they will be asked to fight, will not have the stomach for it. Yes the various "Praetorian Guards' will fight, but they're not enough to ensure the survival of the regime.

 

The short term economic effects, in Bangkok, will be grave, but the mid and long term results will depend upon what sort of civil governance emerges from the ruins. Away from Bangkok, in the more distant regions, I suspect it will be rather more a spectator event. I say that because just about everything in this country is concentrated in Bangkok, and it's immediate vicinity.

 

Edited January 21, 2019 by JAG

[MaxLee]

Time to move on folks,....

 

next topic....

[orchidfan]

6 hours ago, HalfLight said:

Indeed, and it's sometimes difficult to tell whether genius or stupidity is at work. Past history would suggest the latter. Sometimes one has to conclude that the real accomplishment of Thais and Thailand is to uniformly bugger up everything.

 

Consistency of a type I suppose.

 

 

 

ISO 9001 status for consistency!

[HalfLight]

2 hours ago, Eligius said:

I think the 'election' will eventually (after likely further delays) be held - but it will not be free and fair, nor will the claimed result honestly reflect the truth.

 

As for violent revolution: there are other ways of (non-violently) withdrawing one's consent from an undesirable 'government'. The masses of the people really do hold the power in their hands. After all, they are the true 'holders of sovereignty' in the nation of Thailand!

 

 

 

 I fully agree - in principle. But, having the power and exercising the power are two different things, they;ve always had the power, they have never exercise dit. Well, not since 1932 anyway, and that was a pantomime.

[TKDfella]

6 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Rest easy. Doubt there will be a revolution like the Arab spring as wiser heads at the top of the food chain will purge the power crazy fraternity of generals and their allies in the privy council. Happening as we speak. 

Oh yes, I'm with you on this one but I had a hidden line there...embassies Ha! If I get as much help from mine as I did in another eastern country I'd better buy a tank now and dig in...metaphorically speaking of course, Ha!

[HalfLight]

6 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Rest easy. Doubt there will be a revolution like the Arab spring as wiser heads at the top of the food chain will purge the power crazy fraternity of generals and their allies in the privy council. Happening as we speak. 

I would really love to think you're right but...

 

Hasn't someone just put another general on the PC? And didn't someone just make Apirak Army Chief?

 

You might be right, (and I really do hope you are) but events suggest you aren't.

 

 

 

[ramr]

3 hours ago, MaxLee said:

Time to move on folks,....

 

next topic....

I've seen far more pages in threads here devoted to far more trivial matters.  

[Eric Loh]

55 minutes ago, HalfLight said:

I would really love to think you're right but...

 

Hasn't someone just put another general on the PC? And didn't someone just make Apirak Army Chief?

 

You might be right, (and I really do hope you are) but events suggest you aren't.

 

 

 

 Appointing the Army chief from the King's guard is a break from tradition of the past decade. Spent time for some re-education can instill anyone who's the boss. Even the haircut must conformed. Moving the 1st army units will help ease traffic along Chaeng Wattana and Phahonyotin if that was the reason. Now it's further to stage coup. Just thinking on my idle time. 

[HalfLight]

12 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

 Appointing the Army chief from the King's guard is a break from tradition of the past decade. Spent time for some re-education can instill anyone who's the boss. Even the haircut must conformed. Moving the 1st army units will help ease traffic along Chaeng Wattana and Phahonyotin if that was the reason. Now it's further to stage coup. Just thinking on my idle time. 

Here's hoping you're right. For my part, I have had an intuition for some time that the new head boy isn't what Prayuth/Prawit/Prem think he is. I don't know if I'm right or wrong, because I lack the knowledge detail, but that's what my intuition tells me.

 

I guess we'll see. Interesting that he announced the coronation date, by which I mean the date is interesting and Chanocha appears not to have had the memo beforehand. I wonder if he was consulted... that would be an interesting detail to have either way.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 21, 2019 by HalfLight

[DrTuner]

7 hours ago, unamazedloso said:

just start blowing stuff up in bkk already please ppl... youll never over throw an army government unless your true thais who love their country act. Im sick of hearing how good thailand is so lets see people go about fixing it already. im sick of seeing the stooges on my phone. 

Last time the "government" shat their pants was when a caravan of tractors started coming down from Isaan. So get 'em kubotas tanked and start putputting to the swampy crotch of Thailand. Pitchforks optional.

[tomta]

8 hours ago, Rugon said:

Really, I hope you don't work as a stockbroker or financial analyst. Take a look at all the BMW's and Benz's around the streets, even upcountry.

There is really no such thing as the economy. You need to ask this question. Whose economy?

[tomta]

1 hour ago, HalfLight said:

Here's hoping you're right. For my part, I have had an intuition for some time that the new head boy isn't what Prayuth/Prawit/Prem think he is. I don't know if I'm right or wrong, because I lack the knowledge detail, but that's what my intuition tells me.

 

I guess we'll see. Interesting that he announced the coronation date, by which I mean the date is interesting and Chanocha appears not to have had the memo beforehand. I wonder if he was consulted... that would be an interesting detail to have either way.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Throwing small hand grenades just for fun? There is a history.

[HalfLight]

Just now, tomta said:

Throwing small hand grenades just for fun? There is a history.

So tell us what it is, wonderboy, don't be a shrinking violet.

 

 

 

[marcusarelus]

9 minutes ago, tomta said:

There is really no such thing as the economy. You need to ask this question. Whose economy?

Thailand has a headline inflation rate of 3.02 percent and an account surplus of 0.7 percent of the country's GDP. The Thai economy is expected to post 4.1% growth in 2018.

agriculture: 8.4%

industry: 39.2%

services: 52.4%

 

[tomta]

15 minutes ago, HalfLight said:

So tell us what it is, wonderboy, don't be a shrinking violet.

 

 

 

We are both shrinking violets, HalfLight, and I think you know that well. You talked in coded language about head boys/ I responded in the same sort of coded language. One of Thailand's many problems - indeed the root of its problems -is that attempts at intelligent conversation descend always into gibberish because simple honest truths cannot be stated. 

[HalfLight]

5 minutes ago, tomta said:

We are both shrinking violets, HalfLight, and I think you know that well. You talked in coded language about head boys/ I responded in the same sort of coded language. One of Thailand's many problems - indeed the root of its problems -is that attempts at intelligent conversation descend always into gibberish because simple honest truths cannot be stated. 

 

Right. Got that. How does that observation explain or add detail to the comment 'there is history'? Tha's what is important after all...

 

I'm a shrinking violet? Ohh. I hadn't thought so... There are many on TVF who would have a name for me, but I don't think Shrinking Violet is very close to the top of that list. Mind you, most of them couldn't spell shrinking or violet I don't expect, so perhaps it doesn't matter anyway. I'm just a WYSIWYG kind of a guy...

 

 

 

Edited January 21, 2019 by HalfLight

[JAG]

10 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Rest easy. Doubt there will be a revolution like the Arab spring as wiser heads at the top of the food chain will purge the power crazy fraternity of generals and their allies in the privy council. Happening as we speak. 

I have to say, Eric, that I don't share your optimism there! Those at the top of the food chain could well be manoeuvring to put in place a "second generation Junta government" which will be less (relatively) tolerant and restrained than the present bunch.

[DrTuner]

3 hours ago, HalfLight said:

Here's hoping you're right. For my part, I have had an intuition for some time that the new head boy isn't what Prayuth/Prawit/Prem think he is. I don't know if I'm right or wrong, because I lack the knowledge detail, but that's what my intuition tells me.

Check out some articles from 16-17 June 2018 that mention $30bn. Munich is nice, especially when you got boatload of cash.

[HalfLight]

2 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Check out some articles from 16-17 June 2018 that mention $30bn. Munich is nice, especially when you got boatload of cash.

Would that include the amounts paid by the big T? or were the amounts paid by big T specifically the downsides of bad 'investments'?

 

Do you have links?

Edited January 21, 2019 by HalfLight

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, JAG said:

I have to say, Eric, that I don't share your optimism there! Those at the top of the food chain could well be manoeuvring to put in place a "second generation Junta government" which will be less (relatively) tolerant and restrained than the present bunch.

You could be right just that the last decade was generous for the Queens Guard generals with patronage from the queen bee and that impotent one. The only person who could have change the fortune was incapacitated. Now matters are different with the changing of the order who view the rising power of the military as a threat. But who knows what install for Thailand future with so many greedy hands waiting to be feasted.