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Thai Baht VS American Dollar


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17 hours ago, kenk24 said:

when the rate was 55 baht to the dollar people were telling me not to buy baht as next week it will go to 60... 

 

the most important part of the equation is the purchasing power that you have for the baht... 

An interesting aside...it only ever stayed in the 50s for a grand total of (approx) 28 days. (image below) It was down to high 30s within 2 months, then moved from mid-30s to low-40s for quite some time. 

 

Those were the best days of my life! :thumbsup:Besides getting a glorious exchange rate...everything here was DIRT CHEAP. Good times...damn good times. 

 

Now dirt isn't even cheap here...

 

Screenshot_20190208-084836_crop_576x1308.thumb.jpg.c2118b549711fb5a9090046a8c1c9f65.jpg

Edited by Skeptic7
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1 hour ago, Skeptic7 said:

Now dirt isn't even cheap here...

thanks for the chart... good days indeed... and yes, very true... I was pricing some land outside of CM last year and when converted to my home currency and measures, it came to $175,000 an acre... pricey indeed. 

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16 hours ago, Thaidream said:

Read a few predictions indicating about a 20% loss in the value of  Dollar/Pound/Euro.. In a year, I am planning on a value of 29 Baht. to the Dollar.

Foreign inflow will remain strong except for one caveat- this next election- if it goes off without any instability and the  winner is able to form a stable government- the Baht remains strong. If there is instability; protesters in the street and changes of Government- all bets are of.

 

What happened to the value of the Baht during the last period with elections, street demonstrations, etc.?

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19 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Don't buy gold as an investment, but rather as an insurance. 

 

Avoid jewelry because you pay more for the work involved, and then you get a heavy discount when selling back. 

 

The best are gold coins, easy to keep, transport and sell if needed. 

 

As for the USD vs THB, if you live in Thailand and want to play it safe, better hold THB and avoid surprises. 

 

It is impossible to say how things will evolve, because there are no real financial markets anymore. 

 

When institutions like the Swiss National Bank (SNB) print Swiss Francs hands over fists, in order to lower its value against the USD, then use this "fake" money to buy everything they can put their hands on in the US stock market, what does it say about the dollar or the stock market? Nothing! It is just the reflection of the madness of men... 

Agree with everything you say but with one caveat.

 

Here in Thailand, the gold shops aren’t even interested in buying any coins or (foreign) bars. Out of curiosity myself, I visited about 10 different gold shops in various parts of BKK with a GAE, a Brittania and a Valcambi bar.  The only offer I got was for the Valcambi (at only one shop) and their offer was 20% below spot and they wanted to crack the plastic case open in order to test it.  Even Hua Seng Heng wouldn’t buy any of it unless I was selling 1kg or more.  To me, it doesn’t make sense as I would prefer 9999 gold but things appear to be different here.

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1 hour ago, Airalee said:

Agree with everything you say but with one caveat.

 

Here in Thailand, the gold shops aren’t even interested in buying any coins or (foreign) bars. Out of curiosity myself, I visited about 10 different gold shops in various parts of BKK with a GAE, a Brittania and a Valcambi bar.  The only offer I got was for the Valcambi (at only one shop) and their offer was 20% below spot and they wanted to crack the plastic case open in order to test it.  Even Hua Seng Heng wouldn’t buy any of it unless I was selling 1kg or more.  To me, it doesn’t make sense as I would prefer 9999 gold but things appear to be different here.

It is true that gold shops are more interested with jewelry, which is their core business. 

 

If the purpose is to buy gold to sell it back later in Thailand, then it may be better to buy items produced by the shops. 

 

But, if the purpose is to have gold as an insurance, and keep it, then coins are better. 

 

Assuming that you had to leave Thailand for whatever reason, gold coins would be easy to transport and more likely to be accepted anywhere than Thai jewels. 

 

After all, Canadian Maple Leaf, Krugerrand, Chinese Panda and the likes are well known coins, carrying more trust than exotic jewelry... 

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22 hours ago, arithai12 said:

The key word is "eventually". Of course it will go up and down, in small terms, but I think we can forget the good times when one Euro was 50 Baht.

The Baht is NOT overvalued, it is strong because of the fundamentals of the Thai economy and because of the large influx of foreign currency. Check the current account for Thailand, check the number of tourists.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-31/no-stopping-baht-as-em-asia-s-best-performance-extends-into-2019

This certainly backs you up.

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43 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

It is true that gold shops are more interested with jewelry, which is their core business. 

 

If the purpose is to buy gold to sell it back later in Thailand, then it may be better to buy items produced by the shops. 

 

But, if the purpose is to have gold as an insurance, and keep it, then coins are better. 

 

Assuming that you had to leave Thailand for whatever reason, gold coins would be easy to transport and more likely to be accepted anywhere than Thai jewels. 

 

After all, Canadian Maple Leaf, Krugerrand, Chinese Panda and the likes are well known coins, carrying more trust than exotic jewelry... 

Again...agree.  On the worldwide market, good delivery gold (which Thai gold is not) is absolutely the way to go.  If I tried to take Thai Gold to the US, I’d get melt value.  I just found it strange to be lowballed so much or just flat out have no interest in government issued coins.  I even sent my Thai gf into one shop by herself to see if it was some sort of bias against foreigners but she came across the same thing.  Even though I live in Thailand, I have no interest in Thai gold...even in its bar form.  So, I think we are both in agreement on what kind of gold to own here.  

 

Are there other countries that handle gold in the same way as Thailand?

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4 hours ago, JimmyJ said:

 

What happened to the value of the Baht during the last period with elections, street demonstrations, etc.?

Sadly, the baht is a bullet proof currency it seems. Droughts, floods, coups, violent and deadly protests, buildings set ablaze, airport and major intersections shut down, corruption, govt instability and on it goes...yet the almighty baht perseveres and even gains strength. 

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2 hours ago, Airalee said:

Again...agree.  On the worldwide market, good delivery gold (which Thai gold is not) is absolutely the way to go.  If I tried to take Thai Gold to the US, I’d get melt value.  I just found it strange to be lowballed so much or just flat out have no interest in government issued coins.  I even sent my Thai gf into one shop by herself to see if it was some sort of bias against foreigners but she came across the same thing.  Even though I live in Thailand, I have no interest in Thai gold...even in its bar form.  So, I think we are both in agreement on what kind of gold to own here.  

 

Are there other countries that handle gold in the same way as Thailand?

Laos appears to have similar shops, which is not surprising. 

 

There is also Dubai which is famous for its gold souk, but I don't know how they deal with coins. 

 

India is also well into gold, but in most of Asia they seem to mix saving/insurance with pleasure and prefer gold they can show, rather than coins kept in a safe. 

 

There is one Indian guy who got famous because he had a jacket made of plain gold. 

 

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Gold and Silver are great investments if you hold them physically. If you're  like so many fools that hold paper Gold well if the paper is soft you can use as toilet paper when it becomes worthless. That day is coming. Ask yourself one question why is it that almost every country in the world is buying or repatriating there gold holdings. Because they smell something bad coming their way.

 

Best place  that is closest to Thailand is Singapore. Not only can you buy it but store it as well. Find a storage facility that allows direct access to your metals. At anytime! This is very important.  There are not a lot around but they are the best. Hong Kong would be another place to buy and store. Note if you buy in Singapore you need to be aware of certain rules about bringing  gold and silver into Singapore. Singapore  will allow all metals in but only pure metal will avoid the tax. So if you own say US Gold eagles you'll be taxed on them because they have a blend of silver and copper added for strength.  On the other hand if you bring in Gold Maple leaves the purest Gold in the world no tax, no blended metals.  And generally speaking there cheaper the US Eagles not by much but less is less.

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"Paper gold" is a promissory note.  Gold coins and gold bars are gold.  These are priced in USD/ounce, currently 1318.  A 1-ounce Canadian Male Leaf will cost more than the spot prices ($1,318) simply because of the labor involved in shaping it.  A gold-bar will cost close of $1,318/ounce because it has less labor.

 

All gold has to be taken delivery of, which is a cost.  There is also cost of storage/security.

If you assume those costs are nil, then gold which is a great investment would have made of 3,000% over a 50 year period.

If you add in the costs of delivery and storage/security, that great investment would be less.

Over that 50 year period, the S&P 500 (with dividends reinvested) returned 11,000% 

 

Over a 40 year period, gold which is a great investment, made 322% (less storage/security & delivery).

Over the same period S&P 500 (with dividends reinvested) would have returned 7,684% 

 

Over a 30 year period, gold which is a great investment made 240% (less storage/security & delivery).

Over the same period S&P 500 (with dividends reinvested) would have returned 1,655%

 

Over a 20 year period. gold which is a great investment made 365% (less storage/security & delivery).

Over the same period S&P 500 (with dividends reinvested) would have returned 209%

 

Over a 10 year period, gold which is a great investment made 33% (less storage/security & delivery).

Over the same period S&P 500 (with dividends reinvested) would have returned 277%

 

Yes, gold is a great investment.  It also has bling.

 

 

 

 

 

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For those of looking to get rich not-so-quick, say a 5-year period, gold which is a great investment made all of 2% (less storage/security & delivery).  Over the same period S&P 500 (with dividends reinvested) made 61%

 

Fortunately, for those of you who want to hold them physically APMEX®  Investments You Hold has free shipping* of this great investment.

A 1 ounce 1 oz Gold Maple Leaf is sold at $1,372

Don't delay, call now.

 

*Only in America!

 

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On 2/6/2019 at 10:38 PM, Ulic said:

While I would love to see the baht weaken, with all the foreign tourist and retirees, lady sponsors bringing/sending foreign currency, Thailands foreign currency account balance is exceptionally strong. So unless the Junta buys more submarines, tanks, planes, and highspeed trains I don't see the baht devaluing. The strength of the baht is about the Thailands foreign currency account balance, not the strength of its economy per se. As with all predictions up or down in the stock market or currency market, they will all come true. The real question is when and by how much. If/when tourism drops significantly and foreign currencies dry up, the value of the baht will fall. Many say tourism is down significantly now. When this is reflected in the foreign currency account balance, the baht will weaken. 

36/37 baht to the $$  is a fair exchange, 40 is too much, 30/31 is to low...........36/37 everyone wins.

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1 hour ago, mshs said:

For those of looking to get rich not-so-quick, say a 5-year period, gold which is a great investment made all of 2% (less storage/security & delivery).  Over the same period S&P 500 (with dividends reinvested) made 61%

 

Fortunately, for those of you who want to hold them physically APMEX®  Investments You Hold has free shipping* of this great investment.

A 1 ounce 1 oz Gold Maple Leaf is sold at $1,372

Don't delay, call now.

 

*Only in America!

 

We have little over two KG's of gold in both jewelry and some 2 oz bars, some of this was bought back in 2010.............missed a good sale in 2012 when it was 1900, but didn't have that much.  I have a Mexican 50 Peso coin........stamped .999  a friend of mine sold it too me for $700 when gold was $1100............I never saw a 50peso coin before and thought it was an ounce, it it stamped it says 37.5gr so I guess thats about 1 & 1/4 troy ounces??  

Edited by TunnelRat69
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3 hours ago, mshs said:

 

 

Yes, gold is a great investment.  It also has bling.

 

 

 

 

 

While everyone above is using the word "insurance", you come up with "investment" to trash gold. 

 

And of course, you use the SP index at the apex of the biggest bubble ever inflated by the central banks and their Wall Street shills. 

 

Why don't we revisit your calculations in a couple of years from now, once gravity and reality will have reasserted themselves? 

 

There is a lot of pain coming, and it is not for those who hold gold coins. 

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42 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

While everyone above is using the word "insurance", you come up with "investment" to trash gold. 

 

And of course, you use the SP index at the apex of the biggest bubble ever inflated by the central banks and their Wall Street shills. 

 

Why don't we revisit your calculations in a couple of years from now, once gravity and reality will have reasserted themselves? 

 

There is a lot of pain coming, and it is not for those who hold gold coins. 

I do not wish for pain or a lot of pain for anyone.

But it is what it is.  Not what it should be, what could be or what it will be.Capture.thumb.PNG.fc5f3f72f3b8a360bf8717f5c7a29b01.PNG

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12 minutes ago, mshs said:

I do not wish for pain or a lot of pain for anyone.

But it is what it is.  Not what it should be, what could be or what it will be.Capture.thumb.PNG.fc5f3f72f3b8a360bf8717f5c7a29b01.PNG

Yet wrong comparison again... investment and insurance are two different things. 

 

With the monetary policies, and frauds, of the past decades, it is no wonder that stocks have performed like Ben Johnson, doped to their eyeballs by free money rushing in the markets directly from the central banks wide open spigots. 

 

So, we have invented the perpetual wealth creation machine, and it happens to be a printing press! 

 

If only Guttenberg had known... 

 

Once again, no one is saying "invest in gold" but rather "be careful and cover your a.. with some gold"... nothing to lose, a lot to gain... 

 

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On 2/7/2019 at 5:21 PM, roquefort said:

There are better ways to hold gold than ETFs which are just paper instruments. You have no guarantee that they are backed by actual gold bullion.

 

PM me for details.

I agree with roquefort. 

 

Metal is metal and paper is paper. Paper is worth what people think it is, largely the same for gold. BUT, the only paper instrument that has held sway over people for thousands of years is the bible, which I don't care a whit for. Precious metals and gems on the other hand have fascinated and moved people for many more thousands of years. 

Gold is best held primarily as physical metal, coins, small bars, etc. privately and accessibly. It is part of any balanced portfolio as it serves as a hedge against currency. Simply put, one should talk about the value of currency in gold instead of the value of gold in dollars. A subtle but important difference. 

 

Gold  and platinum in particular are very finite resources and mining yields are going down relatively rapidly, making the cost of extraction and the price of the metal higher. There is little hope that something like fracking is going to change that short of mining asteroids! 

 

I personally like gold jewelry bought in Thailand because it's where I live, there are no gov records of it, it's easy to exchange with minimal fees, it's easy to transport on your person without raising eyebrows in security lines, and easy to keep safely near where you stay with a little thought and some guile. 

 

Consider buying and holding bars or coins in gold or silver in a foreign vault. I personally like Singapore. https://www.silverbullion.com.sg/

The only way to become less ignorant about metals is to research it. I did it after I was raped by the stock market in 2008 and it changed the way I see the world and how I manage my retirement funds. You need a Plan B and a Plan C to survive the likely financial turmoil that seems inevitable. 

PM me if you want more info. 

 

Most people simply parrot what they've heard about how dangerous metals are, you have be an expert, etc. If you want to trade in metals there is truth to that. If you want to simply diversify your portfolio then it means you are starting to see the bigger picture.

Banks are a malicious and highly deceitful dead end and not worthy of anybody's trust. Stocks are way too expensive now and balanced on a knife edge that is simply not sustainable with the current level of sovereign/private/global debt. Bonds are just more paper debt instruments, private or sovereign. Real estate is a good long term investment but you can't move it, hide it in your back yard, or dispose of it quickly anywhere you happen to be. 

 

I could go on but few would care to read it much less think about it. Most western Governments, especially the USA, have vociferously discouraged or outlawed private ownership of metals for generations so that's not surprising. Yet every gov on earth is, secretly or not, stocking up on gold.

China welcomes bringing gold into the country but strictly forbids its exit, except as jewelry. It encourages its citizens to buy and hold gold. It's buying up gold mines wherever it can. Why do you think that is.?

 

A major reset is due soon.

Smart animals smell the smoke and move before the fire reaches them. Follow your nose and instincts which led you to make your post. 

Educate yourself. 

 

 

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5 hours ago, mshs said:

"Paper gold" is a promissory note.  Gold coins and gold bars are gold.  These are priced in USD/ounce, currently 1318.  A 1-ounce Canadian Male Leaf will cost more than the spot prices ($1,318) simply because of the labor involved in shaping it.  A gold-bar will cost close of $1,318/ounce because it has less labor.

 

All gold has to be taken delivery of, which is a cost.  There is also cost of storage/security.

If you assume those costs are nil, then gold which is a great investment would have made of 3,000% over a 50 year period.

If you add in the costs of delivery and storage/security, that great investment would be less.

Over that 50 year period, the S&P 500 (with dividends reinvested) returned 11,000% 

 

Over a 40 year period, gold which is a great investment, made 322% (less storage/security & delivery).

Over the same period S&P 500 (with dividends reinvested) would have returned 7,684% 

 

Over a 30 year period, gold which is a great investment made 240% (less storage/security & delivery).

Over the same period S&P 500 (with dividends reinvested) would have returned 1,655%

 

Over a 20 year period. gold which is a great investment made 365% (less storage/security & delivery).

Over the same period S&P 500 (with dividends reinvested) would have returned 209%

 

Over a 10 year period, gold which is a great investment made 33% (less storage/security & delivery).

Over the same period S&P 500 (with dividends reinvested) would have returned 277%

 

Yes, gold is a great investment.  It also has bling.

 

 

 

 

 

Your comments starting with 'over the last x years.' ... may be true. But I think today we are not talking about accumulating wealth but about preserving it. While different game, different rules. That's my mantra anyway. 

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25 minutes ago, RocketDog said:

 

 

 You need a Plan B and a Plan C to survive the likely financial turmoil that seems inevitable. 

PM me if you want more info. 

 

Most western Governments, especially the USA, have vociferously discouraged or outlawed private ownership of metals for generations so that's not surprising. Yet every gov on earth is, secretly or not, stocking up on gold.

 

Western governments disparage gold because they have barely any left. 

 

Look how difficult it was for Germany to bring back a part of its holdings left in the good hands of the US! 

 

None of these countries is willing to have its reserves audited, and for good reason... it's either gone or what is left doesn't belong to them. 

 

Only two countries have been seriously stockpiling: Russia and China, and they are not shy about it. 

 

They see the storm coming and the demise of fiat/fake money, starting with the whole powerful USD. 

 

To rebuild a new system, a large pile of gold will help inspire trust. 

 

The West, for its part, will probably go full totalitarian, confiscating once again all precious metals and making it illegal to own it (hello FDR), while at the same time printing with total abandon worthless currencies that the hapless masses will be forced to accept. 

 

Nothing new here, History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes... 

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5 hours ago, TunnelRat69 said:

We have little over two KG's of gold in both jewelry and some 2 oz bars, some of this was bought back in 2010.............missed a good sale in 2012 when it was 1900, but didn't have that much.  I have a Mexican 50 Peso coin........stamped .999  a friend of mine sold it too me for $700 when gold was $1100............I never saw a 50peso coin before and thought it was an ounce, it it stamped it says 37.5gr so I guess thats about 1 & 1/4 troy ounces??  

Minted in Mexico City, the Mexican Gold Peso coins contain 90% pure Gold and 10% copper.

https://www.apmex.com/category/13206/gold-50-pesos-1947-prior

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1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

Western governments disparage gold because they have barely any left. 

 

Look how difficult it was for Germany to bring back a part of its holdings left in the good hands of the US! 

 

None of these countries is willing to have its reserves audited, and for good reason... it's either gone or what is left doesn't belong to them. 

 

Only two countries have been seriously stockpiling: Russia and China, and they are not shy about it. 

 

They see the storm coming and the demise of fiat/fake money, starting with the whole powerful USD. 

 

To rebuild a new system, a large pile of gold will help inspire trust. 

 

The West, for its part, will probably go full totalitarian, confiscating once again all precious metals and making it illegal to own it (hello FDR), while at the same time printing with total abandon worthless currencies that the hapless masses will be forced to accept. 

 

Nothing new here, History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes... 

the usual dreams of the goldbugs all based on assumptions drawn out of thin air. :smile:

Edited by Naam
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On 2/8/2019 at 9:04 AM, Skeptic7 said:

An interesting aside...it only ever stayed in the 50s for a grand total of (approx) 28 days. (image below) It was down to high 30s within 2 months, then moved from mid-30s to low-40s for quite some time. 

 

Those were the best days of my life! :thumbsup:Besides getting a glorious exchange rate...everything here was DIRT CHEAP. Good times...damn good times. 

 

Now dirt isn't even cheap here...

JAN. 12, 1998

Asia's largest investment bank outside Japan, Peregrine Investments Holdings, was forced to shut down today, the first major casualty of the economic and currency crisis that has swept through the region since summer.

i arrived the same day at Don Mueang and saw it at the ticker. changed $2k at 55.35 (booth in arrival hall)!

 

 

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2 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Western governments disparage gold because they have barely any left. 

 

Look how difficult it was for Germany to bring back a part of its holdings left in the good hands of the US! 

 

None of these countries is willing to have its reserves audited, and for good reason... it's either gone or what is left doesn't belong to them. 

 

Only two countries have been seriously stockpiling: Russia and China, and they are not shy about it. 

 

They see the storm coming and the demise of fiat/fake money, starting with the whole powerful USD. 

 

To rebuild a new system, a large pile of gold will help inspire trust. 

 

The West, for its part, will probably go full totalitarian, confiscating once again all precious metals and making it illegal to own it (hello FDR), while at the same time printing with total abandon worthless currencies that the hapless masses will be forced to accept. 

 

Nothing new here, History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes... 

I totally agree. It's hard to know how much gold America has; its own or somebody else's ????. Whatever is does have has been leased, maybe to nultiple parties regardless of who actually owns it. Kinda like renting your neighbor's car when he leaves for vacation!

It also does everything it can to hold onto whatever it's 'storing '  for other countries.

It will take many years for Germany to repatriate all its gold. France only did it by sending a fleet of ships to New York, prompting Nixon to slam the gold window closed in August 1971. 

Even 20 trillion in sovereign debt and still people all over the world think the dollar is "good as gold". Well, except the Chinese who now realize that America's debt to them is actually a huge liability, not an asset. 

 

Also I agree that keeping metals in a bank is tantamount to inviting seizure or at the least making it inaccessible when you may need it the most. Much like cash and ATM machines in times of emergency. If you don't have it when the SHTF, you won't get it afterward. 

 

It is so easy for Americans to purchase gold in Canada (kitco.com) as well as store it there, a long or short drive away from the US. Kitco also allows you to purchase gold in their pool. It is not paper but simply bullion that has not been coined or barred. It can be sold from the pool anytime also, or delivered to the USA, with no notification of the American gov, once you pay a fabrication charge to turn it into coins or bars. A very easy way to own/store physical metals in another country.

 

By all means never store precious metals in America with a third party. Keep it yourself or get it gone offshore.  I recommend holding metals in at least 2 and preferably 3 counties. 

 

While 'investing' in metals may require knowledge and experience, buying and owning it doesn't require much. In my mind and for my purposes gold is not an investment for gain but for retention of wealth. 

 

Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean you're wrong. ????

 

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1 hour ago, Naam said:

the usual dreams of the goldbugs all based on assumptions drawn out of thin air. :smile:

Paper is drawn out of thin air. Precious metals are mined, and have historically been used to represent wealth. 

 

The idea of paper currency representing wealth has been a more recent ambitious deceit that started the rise of the banksters to the seats of power they hold today.

 

And it all started with them storing real gold for people and giving them paper receipts. 

 

Clever ruse, no? 

 

Still works beautifully today for many naive folks. 

Good luck with that. 

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7 minutes ago, RocketDog said:

 

Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean you're wrong. ????

 

There are many wellknown investors who recommend to buy gold today... on top of the Chinese and Russian central banks which are buying hands over fists. 

 

These are not paranoid people or entities. 

 

People like Bill Bonner or Doug Casey didn't become very wealthy legendary investors by peddling nonsense. 

 

There is also John Mauldin, who is as posed as they come, who has been buying gold coins on a weekly basis for years now. 

 

In fact, the issue in not gold, but rather fiat money. 

 

It is mindboggling that, despite the multiple historical episodes of too much money printing, and their inescapable consequences, there are still people who are convinced that this time is different, that wealth can be printed and that it is normal to have stock markets gaining 20% per year in economies barely growing at 2%.

 

Sooner than later, Voltaire will be proven right again... 

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