Strong baht a concern for Thai hotel sector

[webfact]

Strong baht a concern for Thai hotel sector

by Bill Barnett

 

 

Thailand’s baht performance against Asian currencies in 2018, was unmatched, with the exception of the Japanese yen.

 

Commenting on the trend financial news Bloomberg have highlighted that in 2019, a further 4% in growth this year have it sitting at the top of the table.

 

Oddly, one of the underlying factors stimulating the baht’s appreciation is the recovery in tourism arrivals which has a double-digit impact on the country’s GDP.

 

Full story: https://thethaiger.com/news/business/strong-baht-a-concern-for-thai-hotel-sector

 

 

-- © Copyright The Thaiger 2019-02-22

[BestB]

Not to worry with majority of hotels being deemed as “illegal” for not having and not being able to get a piece of paper , silly tourists will be paying whatever 4-5 star hotels want to charge or sleep on the street. 

[Just1Voice]

But if you listen to (and believe) TAT, the tourist are coming by the MILLIONS, and don't care about the cost. 

[RotBenz8888]

What concern, the tourists are coming here anyway, aren't they?

[fforest1]

8 minutes ago, BestB said:

Not to worry with majority of hotels being deemed as “illegal” for not having and not being able to get a piece of paper , silly tourists will be paying whatever 4-5 star hotels want to charge or sleep on the street. 

Correct.....Most hotels and guest houses in Thailand can never meet the requirements needed for a Hotel licence...Only the most expensive hotels can get the licence....

[fforest1]

5 minutes ago, Just1Voice said:

But if you listen to (and believe) TAT, the tourist are coming by the MILLIONS, and don't care about the cost. 

Quality tourist dont care about value for their money...

Only cheap charlies care about value for their money....

[shackleton]

seems only some people here on  Thai visa are worried about the numbers of tourists coming to Thailand

The Thai tourist board and others are pleased,  numbers  keep going up every year 

 

[Old Croc]

5 minutes ago, shackleton said:

seems only some people here on  Thai visa are worried about the numbers of tourists coming to Thailand

The Thai tourist board and others are pleased,  numbers  keep going up every year 

 

Few Thaivisa members are particularly concerned about tourist numbers one way or another. 

Their main worry is the worsening exchange rate they get for their overseas sourced funds.

[madmitch]

The headline and the article content seem to contradict each other!

 

Two years ago let's say a reasonable 4 star hotel room cost 4,500 baht. That was about £82 at that time.

 

Fast forward to today when that same hotel room cost 11% more at 5,000 baht. That's now £125! That's over a 50% increase for a British tourist!

 

Of course Britain has its own currency problems but tourists from all over the world are seeing disproportionate increases in real-term prices. 

 

I've had regular visitors to Thailand, Brits, Aussies and Swedes  telling me they won't be back as Thailand is now too expensive. 

 

 

[lipflipper]

With the Bank of Thailand manipulating the Baht to satisfy their Hi So clients from here and abroad the only people concerned with this fraud are the Expats on fixed incomes who are taking it up their collective keis...ters. Particularly the guys from Australia must be pulling their hair out as their dollar is heading south with no end in sight. Combined with Biggest Joke and his campaign to rid Thailand of Expats this manipulation of the Baht is just another nail in our coffin.

Sent from my CMR-AL19 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[DM07]

Aaaaah...doesn't matter!

Tourism is only a tiny- teenie fraction of the ever growing Thai- economy!

Who cares!?

[MadMuhammad]

39 minutes ago, lipflipper said:

With the Bank of Thailand manipulating the Baht to satisfy their Hi So clients from here and abroad the only people concerned with this fraud are the Expats on fixed incomes who are taking it up their collective keis...ters. Particularly the guys from Australia must be pulling their hair out as their dollar is heading south with no end in sight. Combined with Biggest Joke and his campaign to rid Thailand of Expats this manipulation of the Baht is just another nail in our coffin.

Sent from my CMR-AL19 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

I’m Aussie and I got lucky, I saw the writing on the wall early last year so I transferred more than 12 months living costs @ 24ish. 

Hoping to ride it out when it bottoms out at 20 mid year 

[ReMarKable]

2 hours ago, lipflipper said:

With the Bank of Thailand manipulating the Baht to satisfy their Hi So clients from here and abroad the only people concerned with this fraud are the Expats on fixed incomes who are taking it up their collective keis...ters. Particularly the guys from Australia must be pulling their hair out as their dollar is heading south with no end in sight. Combined with Biggest Joke and his campaign to rid Thailand of Expats this manipulation of the Baht is just another nail in our coffin.

Sent from my CMR-AL19 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

Think of all baht the banks will have in forced, locked savings due to new retirement requirements. How will all this money affect the baht?  Anyone know?  I only took macroeconomics.

[BestB]

56 minutes ago, ReMarKable said:

Think of all baht the banks will have in forced, locked savings due to new retirement requirements. How will all this money affect the baht?  Anyone know?  I only took macroeconomics.

You assuming retireees 800k is a driving force where in reality it’s nothing. Not only that money in a Thai bank does not affect baht , foreign currency in BOT does????

[ReMarKable]

okay so locked in deposits to banks, where before this was not true, would have no affect on the baht due to forced loans to bank of 400,000 for each retiree.  Then what does it affect?  Nothing?

[Mavideol]

strong baht affects everything not only the hotels/tourism business, what about the "poor" retirees receiving their pension in a foreign currency, when converting into baht not getting what they originally anticipated, please don't call them cheap charlies

[Mavideol]

4 hours ago, shackleton said:

seems only some people here on  Thai visa are worried about the numbers of tourists coming to Thailand

The Thai tourist board and others are pleased,  numbers  keep going up every year 

 

another believer,  (TAT) need believers that's why they keep proving/posting fake numbers

[malibukid]

2 hours ago, ReMarKable said:

Think of all baht the banks will have in forced, locked savings due to new retirement requirements. How will all this money affect the baht?  Anyone know?  I only took macroeconomics.

it should benefit the baht like any foreign reserve.

[Sealbash]

another believer,  (TAT) need believers that's why they keep proving/posting fake numbers

Where might I find factual numbers which contradict the numbers put out by TAT. No bar stool anecdotes required.


Sent from my iPad using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[Stargeezr]

I hope Thailand loses more of the tourists that it is lucky to get today. The baht has been too high for far too long, and I do know of many people who travel to Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia and other parts of Asia, as their holidays are not that much more to go see other countries.  I will go to Vietnam myself next year, as I am tired of spending 160 baht for breakfast here in Hua Hin, when I can get it as cheap at McDonalds in Canada where I live for the same price..

Geezer

[tabarin]

I can imagine they are worried as they all sit on land plots that are extremely over valued but still need to be earned back.
For me the advice to family & friends has been to not take a holiday here at all until exchange rates are better,
it is a waste of money and you get a better holiday in Europe for less. 

Edited February 22, 2019 by tabarin

[Khaeng Mak]

5 hours ago, MadMuhammad said:

I’m Aussie and I got lucky, I saw the writing on the wall early last year so I transferred more than 12 months living costs @ 24ish. 

Hoping to ride it out when it bottoms out at 20 mid year 

The AUD is heading well below 20 for certain.  It is near that level now and there has been no black swan event.  When that arrives and funds flee back into USD the aussie peso is headed for 13 to 15 range. Bookmark my post.

[Ulic]

1 hour ago, malibukid said:

it should benefit the baht like any foreign reserve.

It is in baht, not a foreign currency. Whatever effect it would have was over when the money was transferred to the bank unless it is transferred into a foreign currency account. It will help the banks in their appearance to de-leverage or allow them to loan out more. It may have the unintended consequence of lowering domestic consumption for a number of years as ex-pats tighten their belts so they can leave the 400K in the bank on a permanent basis which in effect raises the amount you need to stay in Thailand by 400K baht on a one-time basis. We shall see what comes to pass. If you want to know what is going to happen to the Thai baht focus on Thailands foreign currency account surplus. Is it going up, or down, how quickly, and what are the reasons, foreign exports, foreign imports, tourism (not numbers of people but how much foreign currency they bring and spend) ie. average Chinese stay is 4 days, they have the highest daily spend according to TAT but stay the shortest time.

[Ulic]

20 minutes ago, Khaeng Mak said:

The AUD is heading well below 20 for certain.  It is near that level now and there has been no black swan event.  When that arrives and funds flee back into USD the aussie peso is headed for 13 to 15 range. Bookmark my post.

Maybe, but if this happens it will be a black day for Thailand. Australian expats will return home and tourists will stop coming, opting for weaker currency countries like Philippines and Bali. As tourists and foreign currency accounts decline in Thailand the baht will fall in value.

[weegee]

This Baht Bubble is about to burst mid year....And yes, the Aussie Dollar is going to fall lower yet...count on it.

 

 

[BestB]

2 hours ago, ReMarKable said:

okay so locked in deposits to banks, where before this was not true, would have no affect on the baht due to forced loans to bank of 400,000 for each retiree.  Then what does it affect?  Nothing?

Private bank has nothing to do with baht value .

 

yoor 400 or 800 is nothing on a larger scale. There are 67 million people in Thailand , few thousand retireee do not make up for banks wealth 

[BestB]

5 minutes ago, weegee said:

This Baht Bubble is about to burst mid year....And yes, the Aussie Dollar is going to fall lower yet...count on it.

 

 

Aud might be due to Chinese stop buying coal, main export. They may stop to buy other things. I do not believe Thai baht will crash, I like to hope it will but being in surplus economy and few hundred billion in foreign reserves , I am afraid highly unlikely 

[BestB]

1 hour ago, Stargrazer9889 said:

I hope Thailand loses more of the tourists that it is lucky to get today. The baht has been too high for far too long, and I do know of many people who travel to Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia and other parts of Asia, as their holidays are not that much more to go see other countries.  I will go to Vietnam myself next year, as I am tired of spending 160 baht for breakfast here in Hua Hin, when I can get it as cheap at McDonalds in Canada where I live for the same price..

Geezer

People keep talking about other countries. Just fine back from Malaysia and ringgit is hardly crashed or cheap . 2.88 to 1 aud. 7.80 baht to 1 ringgit, previously was 8 baht to 1 ringgit.  Au was 4.5 from memory.

 

so surrounding countries are not what people keep posting about. Their currency just as strong as thb, almost 

[GreasyFingers]

39 minutes ago, Khaeng Mak said:

The AUD is heading well below 20 for certain.  It is near that level now and there has been no black swan event.  When that arrives and funds flee back into USD the aussie peso is headed for 13 to 15 range. Bookmark my post.

A you trying to make me feel good. I always used 26B:1AUD to bring money over when it went above that. I was absolutely dirty when I had to bring in 5M baht to buy the house and land at 23.6.

Now if you are right, and I can get the wife to sell everything, I will have more AUD than I have dreamed of.

Sorry, not doubting you, just trying to look on the funny side if you are right.

[FarangDoingHisThing69]

At this point, I would recommend someone hold 100,000 baht in a forgotten Bangkok Bank account and see what plays out. Who knows, maybe the government will peg it to 1$/Baht one day. I've seen more insane things happen.