Thailand’s export growth drop predicted, SCB’s EIC

[webfact]

Thailand’s export growth drop predicted, SCB’s EIC

 

 

Thailand’s export growth this year may be flat after Thailand’s outbound shipments in May recorded the sharpest drop in 34 months.

 

After the Commerce Ministry on Friday released the figures of Thai exports in May which dropped 5.8 percent year-on-year, contracting for seven consecutive months and the sharpest drop in 34 months, economists are now revising their export projections without ruling out the possibility of export contraction this year.

 

The trade war between the US and China has taken a toll on Thai outbound shipments as Thailand’s customs-cleared outbound shipments fell by 5.8 percent to USD21.01 billion in May for seven months in a row. Thai exports dropped 2.6 percent in April and 4.9 percent in March.

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thailands-export-growth-drop-predicted-scbs-eic/

 

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2019-06-24

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[observer90210]

And worse is yet to come when foreign tourists will also get fed up with the overrated THB...the ideal exchange rate should be something like

1 US$ = 37 THB...

[mikebell]

Surely the only foreign tourists left are Chinese?  The only European tourists who come are family/friends of those left marooned by the strong baht and/or predatory wives.

[uli65]

I like this very good news, waiting long time for the thai export collaps, now hoping fort he Baht will drop soon.

[Cadbury]

Chickens of the Prayut military government coming home to roost I suspect. Plus the baht factor.

Thai exports sliding into serious negativity despite the countless jaunts PM Prayut has made to foreign countries to try and drum up export trade. Seems like only yesterday that Prayut and his cronies were bragging about how well Thai exports were going.

Contrast that with their neighbour Vietnam which has an average export growth rate of 17.9% for the period Jan 1998 to May 2019.

[LazySlipper]

38 minutes ago, uli65 said:

I like this very good news, waiting long time for the thai export collaps, now hoping fort he Baht will drop soon.

Unfortunately don't keep your hopes up. I thinks that the Thai PM has every intention of keeping the Bht strong as it gives him much buying power for his military toys. 

[marcusarelus]

1 hour ago, LazySlipper said:

Unfortunately don't keep your hopes up. I thinks that the Thai PM has every intention of keeping the Bht strong as it gives him much buying power for his military toys. 

How would he keep it strong?  Pay the Brits to argue about Brexit or bribe the American Fed?  

[geoffbezoz]

1 hour ago, LazySlipper said:

Unfortunately don't keep your hopes up. I thinks that the Thai PM has every intention of keeping the Bht strong as it gives him much buying power for his military toys. 

Or alternatively, provides a much enhanced FX rate for him and his  pals, the Elite and certain others to move their biliions of baht out of Thailand to a safe haven for when "judgement" day finally arrives.

Edited June 24, 2019 by geoffbezoz

[30la]

Do you like playing with currency? Ok you have reached a goal, European and American tourists are no longer so numerous!
Unfortunately you did not think that with these games you have made your production too expensive for western countries!
Perhaps you can increase exports to India and China!

[Burma Bill]

2 hours ago, uli65 said:

I like this very good news, waiting long time for the thai export collaps, now hoping fort he Baht will drop soon.

Yes indeed. The strong baht is making their exports expensive - nothing to do with the USA - China trade dispute. Foreign companies can buy cheaper elsewhere in ASEAN and I am surprised the Thais do not realize this.

[30la]

3 minutes ago, Burma Bill said:

Yes indeed. The strong baht is making their exports expensive - nothing to do with the USA - China trade dispute. Foreign companies can buy cheaper elsewhere in ASEAN and I am surprised the Thais do not realize this.

Don't forget, the Thai people are an absolutely proud people, they know everything and don't ask anyone for help, this costs many companies so much money and some will go bankrupt!

[Eric Loh]

2 hours ago, uli65 said:

I like this very good news, waiting long time for the thai export collaps, now hoping fort he Baht will drop soon.

Actually the weak export help Baht appreciation as long as the tourism industry remained strong to keep the demand for Baht robust. The Baht against other Asian currencies like the Yuan is not as steep as against USD. The Asians may compensate for the decline in western tourists. Thailand also don't rely on oil & other commodities like Malaysia or Australia. 

[marcusarelus]

49 minutes ago, Father Fintan Stack said:

The smart money is already moving to Vietnam... in droves.

 

Tourists are following now too.

 

Thai export-heavy manufacturing industry has lost market share to low-cost neighbours like Vietnam, productivity has steadily declined and the nation has one of the oldest populations among developing countries. That's even before trade wars and a global slowdown are factored in. Lucrative free trade talks have languished under military rule of 2013.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/foreign-investors-wary-of-thai-economy

 

 

[Srikcir]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

economists are now revising their export projections without ruling out the possibility of export contraction this year.

Somkid might want to reconsider any nomination by Prayut for Minister of Commerce or Finance.

Keep his former DPM Economic Analysis position - it's safer from blame.

[Cadbury]

1 hour ago, Father Fintan Stack said:

The smart money is already moving to Vietnam... in droves.

 

Tourists are following now too.

 

Serious Thai investment money is also moving to Vietnam which could be seen as a lack of faith in the Thai government and the Thai economy. 

Military governments are recognised as being failures when it comes to financial and economic management. 

 

[Eric Loh]

Even the fallout from the disruption in supply chain due to the trade tariff war between China and USA didn't benefit Thailand much. Most analysts will mentioned Vietnam followed by Philippines and Malaysia. It is the political uncertainty that bother investors. 

[RichardColeman]

100% to get worse. Most of the current exports would have been ordered well before now and soon will be on drip feed due to high baht levels

[Chelseafan]

4 hours ago, Cadbury said:

Chickens of the Prayut military government coming home to roost I suspect. Plus the baht factor.

Thai exports sliding into serious negativity despite the countless jaunts PM Prayut has made to foreign countries to try and drum up export trade. Seems like only yesterday that Prayut and his cronies were bragging about how well Thai exports were going.

Contrast that with their neighbour Vietnam which has an average export growth rate of 17.9% for the period Jan 1998 to May 2019.

Yep. I've moved all my business from Thailand to Vietnam especially as the EU removed the GSP a few years ago.

If the Government doesn't do something soon there are going to be a lot of factories going out of business over the next few years.

 

[marcusarelus]

2 hours ago, Cadbury said:

Serious Thai investment money is also moving to Vietnam which could be seen as a lack of faith in the Thai government and the Thai economy. 

Military governments are recognised as being failures when it comes to financial and economic management. 

 

If the military government fell out of favor with the powers that be it would be out in a heartbeat.  128 people in Asia on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index lost a combined US$137 billion in 2018 and half the big bucks fellas lost a bunch in 2019.  I'd look for a change unless it changes quick.

Edited June 24, 2019 by marcusarelus

[lipflipper]

And as long as the Mega rich Thais along with their payed for pals at the Bank of Thailand keep the Baht artificially strong for their own benefit the export sector is going to keep going down the toilet. But so what? Let the middle class and lower class hard working Thai people suffer because of this. I hope to God the bottom falls out from under their ars..ses very soon.

Sent from my CMR-AL19 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[Mavideol]

6 hours ago, mikebell said:

Surely the only foreign tourists left are Chinese?  The only European tourists who come are family/friends of those left marooned by the strong baht and/or predatory wives.

agree but add to that some Indians as well and none of them are big spenders... baht exchange rates are out of the normal expectations and as observer90210 says... more yet to come

[Cadbury]

1 hour ago, Chelseafan said:

Yep. I've moved all my business from Thailand to Vietnam especially as the EU removed the GSP a few years ago.

If the Government doesn't do something soon there are going to be a lot of factories going out of business over the next few years.

 

Yes, agreed. And a bumbling Thai government with an ineffective leader won't stop the drain. The fact that Vietnam now has a Free Trade Agreement with the EU while Thailand is still struggling to achieve one only increases the likelihood of the drift of manufacturing business away from Thailand. 

I suspect greater productivity and higher skills factors of Vietnamese workers might be another enticing factor. The Thai education system may also be part off the problem.

With the country sliding into a downward spiral of economic decline there seems little future for PM Prayut's much acclaimed Eastern Economic Corridor. 

 

[chilli42]

Well no shit Sherlock.  Continue the monetary policies that keep the Baht artificially high and more of the same will be coming.  It’s go absolutely zero to do with the US/China trade war ... that should open opportunities for Thailand to export more.  Oh wait, I forgot, Vietnam is where companies go to feed their global supply chain.  

[marcusarelus]

4 hours ago, lipflipper said:

And as long as the Mega rich Thais along with their payed for pals at the Bank of Thailand keep the Baht artificially strong for their own benefit the export sector is going to keep going down the toilet. But so what? Let the middle class and lower class hard working Thai people suffer because of this. I hope to God the bottom falls out from under their ars..ses very soon.

Sent from my CMR-AL19 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

They lose money if the baht is strong see above.  They want it weaker.  But they don't have enough money to make it move.  Thai poor people never bought many imports so it doesn't effect them one way or the other.  

[marcusarelus]

9 minutes ago, chilli42 said:

Well no shit Sherlock.  Continue the monetary policies that keep the Baht artificially high and more of the same will be coming.  It’s go absolutely zero to do with the US/China trade war ... that should open opportunities for Thailand to export more.  Oh wait, I forgot, Vietnam is where companies go to feed their global supply chain.  

You really think there are people in Thailand who can manipulate British politicians and the American Fed?  Sure...

[marcusarelus]

2 hours ago, Cadbury said:

Yes, agreed. And a bumbling Thai government with an ineffective leader won't stop the drain. The fact that Vietnam now has a Free Trade Agreement with the EU while Thailand is still struggling to achieve one only increases the likelihood of the drift of manufacturing business away from Thailand. 

I suspect greater productivity and higher skills factors of Vietnamese workers might be another enticing factor. The Thai education system may also be part off the problem.

With the country sliding into a downward spiral of economic decline there seems little future for PM Prayut's much acclaimed Eastern Economic Corridor. 

 

https://countryeconomy.com/countries/compare/vietnam/thailand

[Cake Monster]

10 hours ago, LazySlipper said:

Unfortunately don't keep your hopes up. I thinks that the Thai PM has every intention of keeping the Bht strong as it gives him much buying power for his military toys. 

And more buying power for all the money sent abroad to buy property in London Etc