Consumer mood drops to lowest in almost 2 years on political concerns and trade war fears

[snoop1130]

Consumer mood drops to lowest in almost 2 years on political concerns and trade war fears

By The Nation

 

 

The consumer confidence index (CCI) has slid for a fourth straight month to its lowest in almost two years, led by concerns over Thailand’s political uncertainties, a forecasting group said on Thursday.

 

The CCI for June came in at 63.4 points, extending a decline from the 64.8 posted in May. The result is the most downbeat recorded by the Centre for Economic and Business Forecasting of the Chamber of Commerce University since October 2017.

 

The centre’s director, Thanawat Phonwichai, also said that people’s confidence in finding a new job dropped from 73.3 points in May to 72.2 this month. Confidence about consumers’ future income prospects fell from 95 points in May to 93.5 in June.

 

The declines in the key components of the index are seen as a response to consumers’ worries over the country’s economy, with the likelihood of fallout from the trade war between China and the US, alongside concerns over the new government’s stability, Thanawat said.

 

Source: http://www.nationthailand.com/business/30372274

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand  2019-07-04

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[wreckingcountry]

Not spending money because no confidence in the future after the fake election ! A slow downward spiral


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[Nowisee]

I'm not spending money because it's just more stuff I have to sell, give away or take with me when I move.  
Forget that new truck, new motorcycle, new computer, new camera len(s), new bicycle, new glasses, new tennis shoes, etc.
I'll be in farangland soon, just pick them up there and for less.

 

 

[Briggsy]

@Nowisee

 

Me too. Fridge anybody?

[BuckBee]

I could be interested in your fridge ????

 

Don't think it so much confidence but more the consumer running out of money and run out of credit options too .

Thailands lined all it's ducks up in all sectors for maximum damage .

[Matzzon]

Yeah, but the baht is still getting stronger, right? We don´t do currency manipulation! 

Edited July 4, 2019 by Matzzon

[StayinThailand2much]

I could be interested in your fridge [emoji846]
 
Don't think it so much confidence but more the consumer running out of money and run out of credit options too .
Thailands lined all it's ducks up in all sectors for maximum damage .

What money? Most Thais are up to their ears in debt.

Sent from my SM-J415F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[Cadbury]

2 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The consumer confidence index (CCI) has slid for a fourth straight month to its lowest in almost two years,

The consumer scepticism, trust and doubt index is heading south and has been for some time. Driven by a phoney election and a continuation of the same old greedy military rule.

[sotsira]

50 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

Yeah, but the baht is still getting stronger, right? We don´t do currency manipulation! 

Considering Thailand's export market amounts to 65% of it's GDP

why would you think it's manipulating a strong baht?

 

Their export products become more expensive so if you think

it's beneficial to the Thai economy please explain.

[Matzzon]

24 minutes ago, sotsira said:

Considering Thailand's export market amounts to 65% of it's GDP

why would you think it's manipulating a strong baht?

 

Their export products become more expensive so if you think

it's beneficial to the Thai economy please explain.

No, I do definately not think it´s beneficial to the Thai economy. I have 2 questions to you instead.

Why has the Thai baht been going up against almost all currencies in the world the last 2-3 years?

Why do you think that anything that happens in this country, have a logical explaination when the word logic is an alien concept even for Veerathai?

[HeyHeyHey]

Everything of good quality and brand name goods are more expensive than in the west.

 

While you get no consumer protection at all.

 

Often even no basic warranty.

 

So we shop overseas.

[ThomasThBKK]

It's going up because they have a greater inflow of money than outflow, many people investing here and more exports than imports. A large trade surplus.

 

BOT got burned hard in the last crisis, they aren't fan of EQ. You could definately say the Baht is less manipulated than most other currencies.

Also they hold a megaton of USD and other reserves which makes the Baht valuable.

[Isaan sailor]

Confidence down because Baht way up.  Apparently the lure of hot money inflows from an unnamed foreign source—has more value to BoT than the entire export industry, tourist industry, and the expat community combined.

[worgeordie]

As I drive around Chiang Mai,notice how many empty

big billboards there are,if advertising is down,companies

must be feeling the pinch,notice the same in other parts

of Thailand ?

regards worgeordie

[Isaan sailor]

12 hours ago, ThomasThBKK said:

It's going up because they have a greater inflow of money than outflow, many people investing here and more exports than imports. A large trade surplus.

 

BOT got burned hard in the last crisis, they aren't fan of EQ. You could definately say the Baht is less manipulated than most other currencies.

Also they hold a megaton of USD and other reserves which makes the Baht valuable.

Thailand is drunk on hot money inflows from this unnamed foreign source.  This has gone on for two years.  Only now, people can connect the dots...

[nickstav]

Wait until the credit bomb explodes. 

[Eric Loh]

10 minutes ago, worgeordie said:

As I drive around Chiang Mai,notice how many empty

big billboards there are,if advertising is down,companies

must be feeling the pinch,notice the same in other parts

of Thailand ?

regards worgeordie

I supply chemicals to manufacturers and felt the pinch since mid '18. All along the supply chain, companies and suppliers are feeling the downturn badly. It snowball down to the workers who will not get their yearly wage increase and bonus. The average workers are affected the worst being squeezed by raising costs and wage restrain. They buy less and the shops suffer from lack of customers. The circle repeats. This may be the worst year of my 12 years old business even worst than '08 financial crisis and '11 big flood. 

[Curt1591]

15 hours ago, Nowisee said:

I'm not spending money because it's just more stuff I have to sell, give away or take with me when I move.  
Forget that new truck, new motorcycle, new computer, new camera len(s), new bicycle, new glasses, new tennis shoes, etc.
I'll be in farangland soon, just pick them up there and for less.

 

 

"I'll be in farangland soon, just pick them up there and for less."

If by "farangland", you are referring to the US, the cheapest place for electronics, this is where any trade war will have the biggest effect. The lack of tariffs, imposed by most other countries, is why the stuff has always been cheaper in the States. 

[sotsira]

13 hours ago, Matzzon said:

No, I do definately not think it´s beneficial to the Thai economy. I have 2 questions to you instead.

Why has the Thai baht been going up against almost all currencies in the world the last 2-3 years?

Why do you think that anything that happens in this country, have a logical explaination when the word logic is an alien concept even for Veerathai?

In answer to your question.

The Thai Baht has been increasing in value due to a surplus of inflowing currencies due to a surplus of exporting goods against

imported goods.

Thailand has a strong economy, it shipped $250Billion worth of goods around the world in 2018. That's a 9.8% increase since 2014 and a 5.8% increase from 2017, which subsequently increases the value of the Baht.

 

[Nowisee]

1 hour ago, Curt1591 said:

"I'll be in farangland soon, just pick them up there and for less."

If by "farangland", you are referring to the US, the cheapest place for electronics, this is where any trade war will have the biggest effect. The lack of tariffs, imposed by most other countries, is why the stuff has always been cheaper in the States. 

 

B&H consistently beats Big Camera on prices.  B&H often has big sales on cameras/lenses, extended warranty offers and liberal return policy.  

My last camera was bought at Big Camera.  The last lens I bought was from US.   

 

As for a laptop or phone, Thailand has usually been within $50 and so I've just bought here from Apple Thailand.  

 

But, you're correct, as time goes on the US just might see more increases on chinese products, maybe an advantage to Thailand for some electronics. 

The baht at 30.71 is not helping.

 

 

Edited July 5, 2019 by Nowisee

[ThomasThBKK]

2 hours ago, Curt1591 said:

"I'll be in farangland soon, just pick them up there and for less."

If by "farangland", you are referring to the US, the cheapest place for electronics, this is where any trade war will have the biggest effect. The lack of tariffs, imposed by most other countries, is why the stuff has always been cheaper in the States. 

 

 

VAT is also a big part of this, especially for electronics.

19% in germany for example, US sales tax can be avoided easily.

[Matzzon]

1 hour ago, sotsira said:

In answer to your question.

The Thai Baht has been increasing in value due to a surplus of inflowing currencies due to a surplus of exporting goods against

imported goods.

Thailand has a strong economy, it shipped $250Billion worth of goods around the world in 2018. That's a 9.8% increase since 2014 and a 5.8% increase from 2017, which subsequently increases the value of the Baht.

 

So, if the baht goes up when there is an increase in export. Which we already know, thank you for the extensive short lecture. Wouldn´t you say, that if they see a fall in export and it does not meet up to the expectations, the baht would fall if the export falls?

By the way, it was 2 questions.

Edited July 5, 2019 by Matzzon

[malibukid]

3 hours ago, worgeordie said:

As I drive around Chiang Mai,notice how many empty

big billboards there are,if advertising is down,companies

must be feeling the pinch,notice the same in other parts

of Thailand ?

regards worgeordie

i have watched the decline of quality items in markets and shops in CM.  people are not spending on quality here like they did 10 years ago. sad.

Edited July 5, 2019 by malibukid

[sotsira]

31 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

So, if the baht goes up when there is an increase in export. Which we already know, thank you for the extensive short lecture. Wouldn´t you say, that if they see a fall in export and it does not meet up to the expectations, the baht would fall if the export falls?

By the way, it was 2 questions.

 

The Thai economy registered 2.8% growth in the first quarter of 2019. The overall economic expansion for the Thai economy in 2019 is projected in the range of 3.3 – 3.8%. Thailand’s exports grew by 2.2% in the first quarter of 2019.

There would need to be some dramatic downturn for the Baht to devalue

or BoT to lower interest rates as a way to keep the export prices competitive.

 

As for your questioning of Thai logic, you would have to consider that what logic is to you could be completely different to someone else.