Forecast For The Baht

[Naam]

The US government is quite happy with a weak dollar. All their debts are discounted...

GOOD LORD! what horrible sin did i commit that you make me suffer by forcing me to read postings like this? don't i pray everyday? don't i give alms to the poor? didn't i stop beating up my wife and torturing the servants many years ago?

[ray23]

Darn if that isn't scarry, and worse then that, true

[lannarebirth]

My prediction, which is worthless: the baht will bounce back to 40:1 when the forex speculators stop playing chess with Asian currencies, and the baht stops being a measy little pawn in this multi-trillion game. And no, we're not talking about a pittance such as $25,000 or even a million pounds....think billions of pounds. Taksin would only be a small player if he could bet his entire fortune against the hedge funds. But, if he played it right, he could make big money. Am I just confused again, or am I at the top of the field?

My prediction is worthless too, but it is, dollar will stay steady to slightly stronger against baht and increase against GBP. GBP will fall dramatically against baht and less so against $USD.

[sonicdragon]

Get real and think about it. The US government is quite happy with a weak dollar. All their debts are discounted.

Ummm. OK, I've gotten "real" and thought about it - perhaps you can explain that one to me ?

A weak dollar is good for the USA.

I didn't say that a weak dollar was bad for the USA. I was commenting on dollar bearishness in general.

Edited March 18, 2007 by sonicdragon

[ray23]

well I don't know about the debts, but in theory now you should be able to get more buying power with the baht then dollar when buying US goods.

[ramidin]

As the baht hit a new nine year high today , Sontee Limtongkun, publishing mogul , owner of the Manager and Astv and argueably the most knowledgeable and influential journalist in Thailand today , on his tv program Guardian of the Nation this evening stated that he believed that the baht will rise to 32 to the dollar by May this year .

After that it will start to fall and by January 2008 will be back at around 40 to the dollar.

Do people agree this is the most likely scenario for the baht over the coming months and year ?

Price on www.oanda.com on Sunday 18th March:

Median price = 32.64000 / 33.14000 (bid/ask)

Minimum price = 32.64000 / 33.14000

Maximum price = 32.64000 / 33.14000

Sorry, Sontho was three months out, it just hit 32!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

F me when does the new finance minister start>>>>>

[Maestro]

Price on www.oanda.com on Sunday 18th March:

Median price = 32.64000 / 33.14000 (bid/ask)

Minimum price = 32.64000 / 33.14000

Maximum price = 32.64000 / 33.14000

Sorry, Sontho was three months out, it just hit 32!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I doubt he talked about the offshore rate, which is of interest only to speculators, but about the onshore rate, which is of interest to importers and exporters in Thailand.

--

Maestro

[sonicdragon]

well I don't know about the debts, but in theory now you should be able to get more buying power with the baht then dollar when buying US goods.

When you have foreign currency debt, those debts become larger in domestic currency when your currency depreciates. Government debt does not get "discounted" as Gary A says. The point is rather moot though, because despite that error, Gary A also doesn't seem to realise that the US government does not have any foreign currency debt. The private sector does of course, but he wasn't talking about that.