UK after brexit...GBP v THAI BAHT

[Scouse123]

The smart guys who know more than the lot of us and have no interest in politics apart from the financial benefits it brings them are betting on this scenario and it makes sense as they have already committed billions to it.

 

They believe! ............,.,.AND these guys are smarter than the lot of us as they have the dosh and the influence and are on the pulse.

 

Boris Johnson will probably win and become leader. He will NOT have the necessary support in parliament. He will NOT get the EU to change their minds on the withdrawal because too many in parliament will not support a ' clean break deal ' and so the EU will continue to have leverage. The Labour party will fold, break ranks and go for a second referendum because they cannot force a general election in which they would probably lose.

 

They further believe this will cause, no matter all the hype and crap, that Brexit will once again be pushed back leading to either a second EU referendum or a general election. If it's an EU second referendum, Britain will be in the doldrums for years as half the UK will remain unhappy at the result, for or against.

 

The thoughts are also that the GBP is now at a complete bottom and cannot/ should not go any lower.

 

The actual feeling is, it is too low already and remains artificially low because of the Brexit fiasco.

[natway09]

I believe with the lightening speed that the UK Government is working on Brexit (with apologies to Mrs May) you need not concern yourself for 4 years 555

[Percy P]

20 hours ago, geoffbezoz said:

Back to the historic  all time low. 8 baht = 1 GBP

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_baht

Never seen it at 8 Baht.when fiirst came to Thailand it 40 years ago it was 45B. One $ 25B never mind economize by 7/11 beer 51 B instead of bar beer @ 150B

Edited July 10, 2019 by Percy P

[bert bloggs]

19 hours ago, FritsSikkink said:

Your biggest worry shouldn't be Brexit but if Scotland will be still in the UK. They have been sponsoring the UK for decades and when they will be independent, the pound will nose dive. 

And Dianne Abbott will be the next Miss World .

[dode57k]

There are peaks and troughs with every currency. However, any short term gains after brexit or a devaluing of the baht are only that.."short term" look at the history of the pound since around 1917. The long term trend is a DOWN against all currencies. The pound is <deleted>. As is Britain. Brexiteers and optimists, stop deluding yourselves and face reality

[bert bloggs]

53 minutes ago, FritsSikkink said:

They already have a currency, how little some people know.

yes the pound ????

[natway09]

If they finally leave without a deal the GBP will be great no more for at least 10 years if ever at all again

The House of Commons is strangling the UK by their dithering

[ResandePohm]

20 hours ago, JamJar said:

How did you lose money? By not transferring money when the exchange rate was more favourable?

 

The consensus is that the Bank of England may actually cut the Interest rate in the event of a 'no deal'. So perhaps a further drop in the value of the £.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/18ee4744-0c4e-11e9-acdc-4d9976f1533b

Economists are forecasting that the GBP which is currently at 38 baht will fall further. It has already fallen 22% since the referendum but is now being forecast to drop to 25.6 baht over the next 4 years. This will undoubtedly be catastrfic for many Brits here.

[BritManToo]

6 minutes ago, ResandePohm said:

Economists are forecasting that the GBP which is currently at 38 baht will fall further. It has already fallen 22% since the referendum but is now being forecast to drop to 25.6 baht over the next 4 years. This will undoubtedly be catastrfic for many Brits here.

More remainer nonsense, it's unlikely to fall more than any other western currency.

Why keep playing this same old song? us white guys are all getting flushed down the currency toilet together.

Edited July 10, 2019 by BritManToo

[Percy P]

19 hours ago, FritsSikkink said:

Your biggest worry shouldn't be Brexit but if Scotland will be still in the UK. They have been sponsoring the UK for decades and when they will be independent, the pound will nose dive. 

Rubbish. It wasn't Scotland itself that extracted the oil from the sea was it And its not Scottish Oil it British Oil. 

Edited July 10, 2019 by Percy P
Mistake

[ResandePohm]

1 minute ago, Percy P said:

Rubbish. It wasn't Scotland itself that extracted the oil from the sea was it. And it not Scottish Oil it British Oil. 

Wow the Brexiteers are in denial and just want to blame the Remainers.

 

[Brunolem]

10 minutes ago, ResandePohm said:

Economists are forecasting that the GBP which is currently at 38 baht will fall further. It has already fallen 22% since the referendum but is now being forecast to drop to 25.6 baht over the next 4 years. This will undoubtedly be catastrfic for many Brits here.

The former British empire is on its last legs, the coda part before the music stops. 

 

It can't even have a prime minister and an ambassador to the US with proper haircuts! 

 

Having said that, all Western economies, plus Japan, have entered a currency race to the bottom. 

 

In their search for the lowest common denominator, they will soon reach parity, 1 USD = 1 euro = 1 GBP =... 1 baht? Who knows were lies the bottom... 

[bkk6060]

It is going under 30 as is the US dollar.

Lots of people will be running home to mommy.

[sammieuk1]

The rate will be 55tb=£1 by Christmas I know this because every Brexit flat cap that's 52% said we will be better off out than in just waiting now umm still waiting ???? 

[puipuitom]

Don't worry. Boris the Liar will win the PM and go to the EU to re-negociate. As the EU will not move anything, he will return back and blame the EU. Brexit no deal will not pass in the HoC, so... Boris washes his hands no-quilt and claim not he, but... "all the others" let Brexit fail. 

Morst important: Boris finally gets what he wants: the PM-ship (when possible for life), whatever the consequences for the Single Kingdom ( Ireland and Scotland will leave the UNITED Kingdom  in one year) 

[1FinickyOne]

22 hours ago, nomad2019 said:

so seeking help from experts here

nobody knows the future.

 

probably more important is the buying power of your money... not just the exchange rate.

[Traubert]

1 hour ago, puipuitom said:

Don't worry. Boris the Liar will win the PM and go to the EU to re-negociate. As the EU will not move anything, he will return back and blame the EU. Brexit no deal will not pass in the HoC, so... Boris washes his hands no-quilt and claim not he, but... "all the others" let Brexit fail. 

Morst important: Boris finally gets what he wants: the PM-ship (when possible for life), whatever the consequences for the Single Kingdom ( Ireland and Scotland will leave the UNITED Kingdom  in one year) 

I do believe that Ireland made their position on UK membership clear back in 1923.

[allanos]

As Kenk24 says, no one can predict the future. This applies to the so-called experts as much as the OP. If the experts knew what was coming down the turnpike, Lehman Brothers would still be with us and the 2008 financial crisis would perhaps have been still-born.  One or two people called it correctly, and made billions of dollars; the majority of us paid the penalty, in some shape or form.

 

The OP claims to have lost a lot of money in Thailand, but doesn't quantify it or put what it means into some decent context (i have not the slightest insight regarding currencies and money affairs,   i have lost a lot of money in LOS due to being " thick " ).

 

Having no knowledge, or even being dumb, is no excuse.  There is a fortune of information on the internet, easily accesssable in order to "wise up".

 

"Lots" of money is relative. Where does GBPTHB come into the picture? Did he lose lots of money on the ponies, or with a bargirl in Soi 6?  If he lost the money owing to the onset of the poor GBPTHB exchange rate, and it directly affected his cash or currency assets, he is down maybe 25%.

 

If one has 20m Baht tucked away under the mattress, the loss equates to 5m Baht.  That is hefty.  If it was 20 000 Baht under the mattress, his notional loss is 5 000 Baht, or around 160 pounds perhaps.  It is not serious money.

 

Best thing we can all do is have some hedges in place.  An insurance policy or two. If you are long the markets, take out some put options and cash-in when the market crashes.  Buy gold and silver, either physically or  as etf's, and sit on it as a store of value, should the economy take a hit.  Buy BTC perhaps; it was over $ 12000.00 this morning, and has taken on a bullish tone in the recent short term and may be poised for a breakout.

 

One thing I am convinced about is that if one has a decent hedging strategy going forward, you can sleep more soundly at night.

[ResandePohm]

41 minutes ago, kenk24 said:

nobody knows the future.

 

probably more important is the buying power of your money... not just the exchange rate.

If you are importing your GBP to purchase with then your buying power is going to decline accordingly

[Fairynuff]

On 7/9/2019 at 8:42 PM, Kwasaki said:

IMHO brexit has some affects of course and there are few English traitors here in Thailand IMHO and those people that target brexit here only think exchange rate and never planned there future for seismic events. ????

 

Looking at expert financial future reviews the £ is gonna be at a 37 low and a 41 high for a long time to come unless Thailand takes a hit like it did in mid 2005. 

Personally I believe the Uk will prosper in time, maybe not in my time and believe the EU will collapse.

 

You can’t beat a good bit of stand up comedy

[Brunolem]

Meanwhile, the UK is going full Venezuela... 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/no-deal-brexit-british-are-stockpiling-food-medicine-and-clothes-2019-7

[expatfromwyoming]

19 minutes ago, Fairynuff said:

expert

That is a drip under pressure

[nauseus]

On 7/9/2019 at 8:12 PM, geoffbezoz said:

Back to the historic  all time low. 8 baht = 1 GBP

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_baht

When was that then? 

[nauseus]

16 hours ago, nomad2019 said:

 

cant see anything mentioning that

Because it's BS.

[nauseus]

15 hours ago, Kinnock said:

Both currencies are likely to fall in my view.

 

UK because business will suffer because of obstacles to exports and increased cost of imports (I know the Brexit supporters will not agree, but it is inevitable) and the Baht is over-valued and will fall due to rising domestic debt and falling economic importance.

 

Not always practical - but buying a third currency or perhaps gold may be wise?  And try to use GBP from pensions or local wages in UK and locally earned THB in Thailand if possible - as its the currency transaction that hit us. 

 

Best situation for people loving in Thailand with savings or earnings in UK is Brexit is overturned in a second referendum and THB falls to a more realistic level - but think this is unlikely.

 

Unlikely. But with inflation I need more loving expenses. ????

[nauseus]

12 hours ago, wordchild said:

there is a research piece on the THB from Goldman just out this morning, sorry i cant link. They have an interesting angle on the recent (unusual) strength in the baht. They argue that most of the recent strength is due to higher gold prices. They make the point that Thailand is one of the largest gold trading centres in Asia and ,given the rise in the gold price, many of Thailand's gold traders are sitting on large profits. when this has happened in the past these traders  tend to sell or hedge their gold positions from US dollars back into the Thai baht. Hence there has been large switching activity from USD into baht from this source and this has caused the recent spike.  That's the Goldman view anyways.

Whatever the cause, the recent strength of the baht does look to have been a bit unusual and it maybe that it starts to unwind a bit from here.

No real correlation to support that theory to any great degree.

[Hackney35]

On 7/9/2019 at 3:02 PM, FritsSikkink said:

Your biggest worry shouldn't be Brexit but if Scotland will be still in the UK. They have been sponsoring the UK for decades and when they will be independent, the pound will nose dive. 

Hahah this is a joke right? Scotland is a net receiver of public cash from Westminster, just cos it has some (dwindling) North Sea reserves doesn’t necessarily make it self sufficient financially.

I’d happily see a hard border setup and let the dour Scots try to pay for their own benefit claimants and hospitals. 

Scottish debt in a fully independent Scotland would be junk bond rated by the agencies for sure. 

[nauseus]

9 hours ago, SheungWan said:

Funny how the Hard Brexiteers always predicting how Sterling is going to bounce back but the pound then swoons at each and every mention of a no-deal Brexit. Putting 2 and 2 together just seems beyond them.

Sent from my SM-N935F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

If we could actually get out first then you might be able to complain. 

[FritsSikkink]

11 minutes ago, Hackney35 said:

Hahah this is a joke right? Scotland is a net receiver of public cash from Westminster, just cos it has some (dwindling) North Sea reserves doesn’t necessarily make it self sufficient financially.

I’d happily see a hard border setup and let the dour Scots try to pay for their own benefit claimants and hospitals. 

Scottish debt in a fully independent Scotland would be junk bond rated by the agencies for sure. 

Another one who believes the English BS story, Scotland is subsidizing the UK big time.

You really believe your ancestors invaded all these countries so they could spend loads of money to improve their way of living?

Edited July 10, 2019 by FritsSikkink

[sanemax]

5 minutes ago, FritsSikkink said:

Another one who believes the English BS story, Scotland is subsidizing the UK big time.

Could you provide the figures to back that up ?

Scotland does produce oil, but Scotland also gets the oil money spent on itself through higher gov spending in Scotland