Explainer: Is it too late to hold an election before Brexit? Yes, probably

[snoop1130]

Explainer: Is it too late to hold an election before Brexit? Yes, probably

 

FILE PHOTO: A sign marking a polling station is seen in Kensington, London, Britain June 8, 2017. REUTERS/Stefan Wermuth

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said he will take Britain out of the European Union on Oct. 31 with or without an exit deal. His opponents say they will try to stop a no-deal exit even if that means forcing an early election.

 

Lawmakers who want to stop no deal are threatening to bring the government down with a vote of no confidence. That would likely trigger an election, but could that happen before Brexit?

 

HOW CAN AN ELECTION BE CALLED?

 

The next election is scheduled in 2022. An early election is possible if a majority of lawmakers in Britain’s 650-seat parliament vote to hold one.

 

WHO DECIDES WHEN THE ELECTION IS HELD?

 

Boris Johnson.

 

There are legal restrictions setting out a minimum period before an election can take place after the government loses a no-confidence vote, but not on the maximum period before one needs to be held.

 

The House of Commons Library, the parliamentary authority on process and procedure, says election law “gives the prime minister broad legal discretion about when an early general election should take place”.

 

COULD JOHNSON WAIT UNTIL AFTER BREXIT TO HOLD AN ELECTION?

 

Yes. British law states the country will cease to be a member of the European Union on Oct. 31, regardless of whether an exit deal has been agreed with the EU. It is within Johnson’s power to set a date in early November.

 

WHAT DOES THE LAW SAY?

 

In 2011, Britain introduced new laws setting out a fixed schedule for an election every five years, with provisions for holding an early election.

 

Under these laws, after losing a no-confidence vote the prime minister or his political rivals have 14 days to prove they can govern by winning a vote in parliament. If no government has proven itself during that period, the prime minister moves to dissolve parliament and sets an election date no sooner than 25 working days after parliament is dissolved.

 

Dissolution does not have to happen immediately and the date for an election can be more than 25 days from dissolution.

 

WHEN IS THE EARLIEST AN ELECTION COULD HAPPEN?

 

This sets out the fastest possible timeline for an election:

 

Sept. 3 - Opposition Labour Party propose no-confidence motion.

 

Sept. 4 - No-confidence motion is voted upon, government loses.

 

Sept. 18 - 14-day period ends without an alternative government.

 

Sept. 19 - Government chooses election date.

 

Sept. 20 - Parliament is dissolved.

 

Oct. 25 - Earliest possible polling day if Johnson ignores convention that elections take place on a Thursday.

 

Oct. 31 - Earliest possible polling day if Johnson sticks to convention that elections take place on a Thursday.

 

As Johnson is assumed to be against holding an election that could get in the way of his pledge to leave the EU on Oct. 31, he is unlikely to ditch the convention of Thursday elections.

 

It is also considered unlikely that he chooses to hold an election on Oct. 31 - Brexit day.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-08-06

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[Basil B]

Another interesting move is:

Quote

A group of politicians has started a legal action aimed at preventing Boris Johnson shutting down parliament to force through a no-deal Brexit.

The group of 24 parliamentarians include Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson, SNP MP Joanna Cherry and independent MP Heidi Allen.

They lodged legal papers at the Court of Session in Edinburgh last week.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49251511

 

Will MP's vote again to take control of the Parliamentary Time Table and block Brexit?

Voting last time was close and the Tories have lost another seat, JRM is leader of the house will he be any better at controlling the Tory rebels than leadsom?

Johnson has cleared out most of the former cabinet some of which may well now rebel.

 

[Basil B]

4 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

This sets out the fastest possible timeline for an election:

 

Sept. 3 - Opposition Labour Party propose no-confidence motion.

 

Sept. 4 - No-confidence motion is voted upon, government loses.

 

Sept. 18 - 14-day period ends without an alternative government.

 

Sept. 19 - Government chooses election date.

 

Sept. 20 - Parliament is dissolved.

 

Oct. 25 - Earliest possible polling day if Johnson ignores convention that elections take place on a Thursday.

 

Oct. 31 - Earliest possible polling day if Johnson sticks to convention that elections take place on a Thursday.

Not exactly correct...

Corbyn could table a motion of no confidence on Sept 3 and assuming Johnson is defeated, he could actually call an election on Sept 4th rather than try to form a new government, therefore the Election could be as early as Sept 29th, As this is a Sunday it would be highly unlikely, so the next Thursday would be October 3rd.

If Corbyn were not to move a motion of no confidence then Johnson could call for a motion of confidence, he could (the government could) request the Speaker to recall Parliament, (as I see it there is no minimum notice so lets say next Tuesday 13th Aug), actually I can not see why a confidence vote can not be taken on the same day it is tabled, therefore as the 7th Sept is a Saturday then Thursday 12th Sept.

Edited August 6, 2019 by Basil B

[bristolboy]

Even if this is the case, and an election were scheduled for later than oct 31, the EU could still leave the door open for the UK to return if a referendum were to be passed in favor of doing so. It could even extend free trade until such a vote was taken.

[Basil B]

21 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Even if this is the case, and an election were scheduled for later than oct 31, the EU could still leave the door open for the UK to return if a referendum were to be passed in favor of doing so. It could even extend free trade until such a vote was taken.

I am not sure, would like to think so, one thing for sure Boris will get a good kicking when an election is held.

[Loiner]

Yes it’s too late. Your new Remainer plots are all too late too.


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[melvinmelvin]

would an election make a significant difference as far as Brexit is concerned? I doubt it.

 

[AlexRich]

I wouldn’t be in the least surprised if we end up revoking Article 50 to prevent a no deal outcome ... the failure to meet in the middle means that both sides are going for extreme outcomes. If a couple of Tory MPs defect in September it will all look so different. 

[pegman]

If a non-confidence vote were to be lost could Labour try to form a government with Liberal Dem, Tory remainder & small party  support? Labour could promise a new referendum if the others granted their support.

[AlexRich]

1 hour ago, pegman said:

If a non-confidence vote were to be lost could Labour try to form a government with Liberal Dem, Tory remainder & small party  support? Labour could promise a new referendum if the others granted their support.

There is murmurs of a Government of National unity, whose sole purpose would be to extend article 50 and put down a second referendum ... followed by a General Election.

 

Dominic Cumming’s comments are more propaganda than fact ... in September he’ll be eating his words.

[Laughing Gravy]

I see remainers here really are desperate and clinging onto fantasy as it has been reoported here and over the last two weeks that they can't stop the democratic referendum of 2016. So what remainers really want is not to stop no deal but to change the 2016 referendum result. laughable in the name of democracy. You would get my understanding if you said once we have left the EU and had a good few years to see the outcome.

 

The non Brits who pose as Brits here embarrass yourself as remainers. The Europeans who are envious of the UK and enjoy telling us how much we need the EU. Japan, USA< china, Australia etc etc who are not in the EU blows your theory out of the water.

 

The Brits who are remainers on here I pity you whether you like it or not for not having the courage, strength or national identity to believe and support your country. The negativity and lack of supporting democracy astounds me and it is that mindset that has helped with the uncertainty with the markets.

 

Those who are happy to be dominated by a council have no gumption or pride in their country's history and ability and should go and become an EU citizen that they seem to love so much.

 

I wont be replying so don't bother.

 

 

[bristolboy]

45 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

I see remainers here really are desperate and clinging onto fantasy as it has been reoported here and over the last two weeks that they can't stop the democratic referendum of 2016. So what remainers really want is not to stop no deal but to change the 2016 referendum result. laughable in the name of democracy. You would get my understanding if you said once we have left the EU and had a good few years to see the outcome.

 

The non Brits who pose as Brits here embarrass yourself as remainers. The Europeans who are envious of the UK and enjoy telling us how much we need the EU. Japan, USA< china, Australia etc etc who are not in the EU blows your theory out of the water.

 

The Brits who are remainers on here I pity you whether you like it or not for not having the courage, strength or national identity to believe and support your country. The negativity and lack of supporting democracy astounds me and it is that mindset that has helped with the uncertainty with the markets.

 

Those who are happy to be dominated by a council have no gumption or pride in their country's history and ability and should go and become an EU citizen that they seem to love so much.

 

I wont be replying so don't bother.

 

 

"The Brits who are remainers on here I pity you whether you like it or not for not having the courage, strength or national identity to believe and support your country. The negativity and lack of supporting democracy astounds me and it is that mindset that has helped with the uncertainty with the markets."

Because it's never the fault of Brexiters

 

[bannork]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/05/government-national-unity-no-deal-margaret-beckett-referendum

[baboon]

12 minutes ago, bannork said:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/05/government-national-unity-no-deal-margaret-beckett-referendum

It's a pipe dream. There will be some huffing and puffing in parliament, but No Deal it will be, worse luck.

Edited August 6, 2019 by baboon

[bannork]

1 hour ago, baboon said:

It's a pipe dream. There will be some huffing and puffing in parliament, but No Deal it will be, worse luck.

Time will tell. No Deal is simply too stupid to let pass.

[alanrchase]

If this was happening in Asia, Brits would all be having a laugh at the antics of "third world politics".

[JonnyF]

Why would Johnson deliberately set an election date in October before we've left? All he has to do is set an election date for mid November. We'll be out by then so there will be no point voting for the Lib Dems, no point voting for the Brexit party and no point voting for Corbyn who has shown himself to be devoid of the stones to get anything done or even to form a position. 

 

Nope, this one's a non starter. Time for the losers to try and find another way to overturn the democratic vote. Maybe Dominic Grieve can go back to his plan of blocking the tax payers money being spent on education and housing for the poorest in society in the event of no deal. That will really help the country... 

[JonnyF]

1 hour ago, alanrchase said:

If this was happening in Asia, Brits would all be having a laugh at the antics of "third world politics".

True.

 

Thankfully it's temporary as we have solid systems in place. At the next General Election all these Remainers in Leave seats who are trying to overturn the referendum result will be on the scrap heap. Their political careers finished. If they don't believe in politicians listening to the electorate then SE Asia might be a good place for them.

[bannork]

21 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Why would Johnson deliberately set an election date in October before we've left? All he has to do is set an election date for mid November. We'll be out by then so there will be no point voting for the Lib Dems, no point voting for the Brexit party and no point voting for Corbyn who has shown himself to be devoid of the stones to get anything done or even to form a position. 

 

Nope, this one's a non starter. Time for the losers to try and find another way to overturn the democratic vote. Maybe Dominic Grieve can go back to his plan of blocking the tax payers money being spent on education and housing for the poorest in society in the event of no deal. That will really help the country... 

If Johnson loses a no confidence vote MPs have 14 days to form a government. That's when Tory rebels could vote for a new PM, a Remainer, someone from outside the party who would set a new referendum date and postpone leaving. Johnson could refuse to resign in which case the courts might have to be involved 

[Grusa]

I fail to understand why the politicians have chosen to derail what should have been an orderly process, wrecking the train in the process. 

 

I have to assume that it is the usual:- greedy, lying pigs with their snouts firmly in the trough...... om both sides of the Channel.

 

Follow the money, folks. Someone is coining it in, big time. And Europe just wants our 30bn, on any excuse. If they really wanted us to stay, they would make it at least a little bit attractive to do so.

 

Boris, just do it, for gods' sakes, and let us  all settle down and get on with life. And if all you MPs lose your seats, well you all deserve the dustbin of history anyway. There is no longer any honour in Parliaments, anywhere.

[rgraham]

This mess should be a Benny Hill series!

[AlexRich]

58 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Why would Johnson deliberately set an election date in October before we've left? All he has to do is set an election date for mid November. We'll be out by then so there will be no point voting for the Lib Dems, no point voting for the Brexit party and no point voting for Corbyn who has shown himself to be devoid of the stones to get anything done or even to form a position. 

 

Nope, this one's a non starter. Time for the losers to try and find another way to overturn the democratic vote. Maybe Dominic Grieve can go back to his plan of blocking the tax payers money being spent on education and housing for the poorest in society in the event of no deal. That will really help the country... 

Heard it all before. Since the referendum the Brexiteer predictions on here have been consistently wrong. Recently recall an argument with one about how it was impossible, by law, not to leave on 31 March 2019 ... and how his superior knowledge and legal understanding trumped mine. Not a sound from him since. 

 

If you believe that a government that will soon lose its majority (due to defections) can by pass parliament and engineer “no deal” good luck ... but you’ll look pretty foolish when it doesn’t happen. 

[AlexRich]

8 minutes ago, Grusa said:

I fail to understand why the politicians have chosen to derail what should have been an orderly process, wrecking the train in the process. 

 

I have to assume that it is the usual:- greedy, lying pigs with their snouts firmly in the trough...... om both sides of the Channel.

 

Follow the money, folks. Someone is coining it in, big time. And Europe just wants our 30bn, on any excuse. If they really wanted us to stay, they would make it at least a little bit attractive to do so.

 

Boris, just do it, for gods' sakes, and let us  all settle down and get on with life. And if all you MPs lose your seats, well you all deserve the dustbin of history anyway. There is no longer any honour in Parliaments, anywhere.

It’s not within Boris Johnson’s gift to give ... which few leavers seem I’m to understand. 

[Handsome Gardener]

5 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

 

I wont be replying so don't bother.

 

As he snatches his handbag up and minces off …...

[Handsome Gardener]

1 hour ago, JonnyF said:

Why would Johnson deliberately set an election date in October before we've left? All he has to do is set an election date for mid November. We'll be out by then so there will be no point voting for the Lib Dems, no point voting for the Brexit party and no point voting for Corbyn who has shown himself to be devoid of the stones to get anything done or even to form a position. 

 

Nope, this one's a non starter. Time for the losers to try and find another way to overturn the democratic vote. Maybe Dominic Grieve can go back to his plan of blocking the tax payers money being spent on education and housing for the poorest in society in the event of no deal. That will really help the country... 

and the £2.1 BILLION that Boris is spending on no-deal preparations/propaganda ?

 

OK to divert that little lot from the needy ?

[Grusa]

18 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

It’s not within Boris Johnson’s gift to give ... which few leavers seem I’m to understand. 

If not his, then whose? The Queen, methinks!

[vogie]

3 minutes ago, Handsome Gardener said:

and the £2.1 BILLION that Boris is spending on no-deal preparations/propaganda ?

 

OK to divert that little lot from the needy ?

The UKs contribution to the EU went up by £2.6 billion last year because of the UKs growing economy, I find it very strange that not one remainer has ever mentioned this.

I am sure that would have helped the needy also.

[welovesundaysatspace]

43 minutes ago, Handsome Gardener said:

and the £2.1 BILLION that Boris is spending on no-deal preparations/propaganda ?

I wonder why that’s needed if it’s all “Project Fear” ???? 

 

[Basil B]

9 hours ago, AlexRich said:

I wouldn’t be in the least surprised if we end up revoking Article 50 to prevent a no deal outcome ... the failure to meet in the middle means that both sides are going for extreme outcomes. If a couple of Tory MPs defect in September it will all look so different. 

I would say more probably a larger group will resign the whip... 

 

It is estimated 75% of Tory MP's represent constituencies that voted leave so therefore the remaining  25% represent constituencies that voted remain, 25% of 320 = 80, could form a sizable party of their own.

[JonnyF]

1 hour ago, AlexRich said:

Heard it all before. Since the referendum the Brexiteer predictions on here have been consistently wrong. Recently recall an argument with one about how it was impossible, by law, not to leave on 31 March 2019 ... and how his superior knowledge and legal understanding trumped mine. Not a sound from him since. 

 

If you believe that a government that will soon lose its majority (due to defections) can by pass parliament and engineer “no deal” good luck ... but you’ll look pretty foolish when it doesn’t happen. 

Nothing to engineer. It's already in legislation. The difference now is that the weak, mealy mouthed, duplicitous disaster that was Theresa May has gone so there is nobody left to ask for an extension.

 

The losers are running out of options and will have to accept the democratic will of the people sooner or later. 

 

By the way, all talk of a 'deal' referred to a trade deal until Theresa tried to lock us in for several more years and changed the meaning of a 'deal' to mean a withdrawal deal. The EU seriously expect us to pay 39 Billion to lock ourselves into the customs union indefinitely? Yeah OK Mr Barnier, that sounds great. Don't call us, we'll call you.