EU's Juncker tells Britain: no-deal Brexit will hurt you the most

[sandyf]

20 minutes ago, Jip99 said:

 

 

No, but - as always - market tolerance is a huge factor.

It cannot be denied that tariffs are an incentive for fraud.

[puipuitom]

1 hour ago, Victornoir said:

20% tax on German cars for 66 million people = 20% tax on Japanese cars assembled in UK for 500 million.

 

Volkswagen, Renault, Fiat and others dreamed of it, Boris will do it.

Therefore, prayers in the EU changed: "God.. give us our daily bread and.. thanks for Boris and his Brexit."

 

Heard at many terasses and restaurants: "waiter, one coke, 4 straws please". 

[bristolboy]

2 minutes ago, Bluespunk said:

I notice some, rarely used for posting, but useful for emoji trolling identities being broken out...

A valuable resource for the inarticulate.

[sandyf]

1 minute ago, Jip99 said:

 

 

Everything is relative.

Couldn't agree more.

It will be relatively easy for European business to make up the lost turnover and relatively difficult for the UK.

[puipuitom]

1 hour ago, CNXexpat said:

But the Japanese car makers are planning to leave the UK or left already. So the Brits have to pay 20% (or less or more) customs for all cars, except and McLaren which only a few people can afford. So the customs will effect 99,99% of the Brits. 

Rolls Royce, Bentley are German owned car manufacturers,.

[Jip99]

3 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Couldn't agree more.

It will be relatively easy for European business to make up the lost turnover and relatively difficult for the UK.

 

 

I can live with that.

 

Do you really think that people will not buy from the UK ?

[puipuitom]

1 hour ago, tebee said:

No and no.  This is the wonder of the single market(+CU) the most advanced FTA in the world.

...and why some of us think it is madness to leave it . 

The heavily fortified and unpassable border between the EU member states Belgium and Netherlands… Same between EVERY two EU member states. ONLY at ports leaving from the EU towards the UK there is a check for illegal passengers, but NOT for merchandise. Till of course 1 Nov 00:00:00 h

 

But for the moment: at NO INTER-EU BORDER anything is checked, not on lorries, nor in private cars or persons. Even forbidden ( only for a temporary action) Read EU regulations . ONLY and ONLY for outgoing towards the UK seen illegal migrants. Just look at the first the best video about the (un)loading in these ports. Brexiteers… not the slightest ideas about the present reality.

 

[puipuitom]

31 minutes ago, superal said:

Did you hear that Macron wants the official language of the EU parliament changed from English to French ? What a plonker ???? 

Just search in google with "official language EU after brexit" and see, who is the real "plonker". A real Brexiteer… 

[AlexRich]

4 hours ago, Jip99 said:

 

 

The EU exports more to the UK than the UK exports to the EU.

But the pain is spread over a population almost ten times bigger, so the UK takes the biggest amount of pain by far, the pain spread across the EU will be unwelcome but much easier to absorb. The economic impact on the UK is on a greater magnitude.

 

 

 

[CNXexpat]

8 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

Rolls Royce, Bentley are German owned car manufacturers,.

True. But they build their cars in the UK and plan to stay there.

[puipuitom]

1 hour ago, Chelseafan said:

So you're saying NO lorries get checked at Dover/Calais and No Lorries get checked at Irish ports ?

 

But for the moment: at NO INTER-EU BORDER anything is checked, not on lorries, nor in private cars. ONLY and ONLY for outgoing towards the UK seen illegal migrants. Just look at the first the best video about the (un)loading in these ports. Brexiteers… not the slightest ideas about the present reality. ( stuck at the early 70's when the UK was not an EU member state ). Advise: learn to check with Google or so, e.g. with "inter EU border checks ". 

[bristolboy]

9 minutes ago, CNXexpat said:

True. But they build their cars in the UK and plan to stay there.

So I guess that means that if Brexit happens, from then on Britons will all be buying Bentleys and Rolls.

[Loiner]

And THAT'is why, when for Nothern Ireland a different regime is valid as for South Ireland, there MUST be a border check in between. 

Not so. There is no MUST about it.
The UK has thousands of daily import shipments at scores of ports and not every one of them is checked. It’s all a paper/IT process. Physical checks are random, probability driven, intelligence led or however Customs decides but not mandatory.
I don’t believe it’s any different at any of the EU borders, so won’t be with Ireland.

[superal]

14 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Couldn't agree more.

It will be relatively easy for European business to make up the lost turnover and relatively difficult for the UK.

The UK will be 10 billion Euros better off per year just standing still . That figure is the net balance per annum 2017 figures . That of course means the EU will be minus 10 billion Euros . I know where my bet would go for a success .   If the EU were able to make up the loss of UK trade why are they not already doing it ?   However I think that trading will continue as it is albeit with some border delays which can be factored in but if that word " Tariffs " comes in then it will be the start of tit for tat etc .

[puipuitom]

1 hour ago, bristolboy said:

Brexiters mostly don't seem to get it that tariffs aren't going to be the biggest problem for the UK. It's the fact that once the UK is out of the free trade area, it's going to hurt manufacturing in the UK. The reason a lot of foreign companies set up manufacturing facilities in the UK was that

1) labor is less protected in the UK than in the industrially developed nations of the continent

2)that because the UK was in the EU that allowed for an unobstructed supply chain. 

And not just manufacturing. I note that Brexiters seem to focus almost exclusively on goods rather than services. But services are a much bigger part of the UK economy and the UK enjoys a big surplus there.  And in the event of a hard Brexit will be much more restricted in the EU. Screws on the City will be tightened in the event of a hard brexit. 

 

Financial Services Companies Find Stable Home in the Netherlands ...

https://investinholland.com › Blog

3 jun. 2019 - Among the list include top financial services firms like Azimo, MarketAxess, ... a new venue in Amsterdam to ensure the company is well-positioned in light of Brexit. ... 

 

[CNXexpat]

11 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

So I guess that means that if Brexit happens, from then on Britons will all be buying Bentleys and Rolls.

Yes, and Jaguar and McLaren. Because they are produced in the UK, so no customs. Easy to effort for everybody opposite the imported cars ????

[bristolboy]

19 minutes ago, superal said:

The UK will be 10 billion Euros better off per year just standing still . That figure is the net balance per annum 2017 figures . That of course means the EU will be minus 10 billion Euros . I know where my bet would go for a success .   If the EU were able to make up the loss of UK trade why are they not already doing it ?   However I think that trading will continue as it is albeit with some border delays which can be factored in but if that word " Tariffs " comes in then it will be the start of tit for tat etc .

Wow! 10 Billion whole euros. Why that's not even nearly 1% of Germany's GDP. It's more like a rounding error. Somehow I think the EU can survive the loss of the UK's contribution.

[Matzzon]

1 hour ago, bristolboy said:

Whatever the state of mind may be, he spoke an obvious truth. 

Yes, in your opinion due to that you are brittish and see your problem as the ones of the more severe kind. Another person that is going to be affected by the economy and market within the EU might be of another opinion.

 

But whatever, there is always worst for a brit.

[puipuitom]

32 minutes ago, CNXexpat said:

True. But they build their cars in the UK and plan to stay there.

You hope...   Of course the value of RR and Bently form a big part in overall earning in British industry…. 

Bye-the-way: how many parts are imported from continental EU ? I agree, the skilled hands of the workers mean here more than the quality of the components.

[tebee]

30 minutes ago, Loiner said:

 

Not so. There is no MUST about it.
The UK has thousands of daily import shipments at scores of ports and not every one of them is checked. It’s all a paper/IT process. Physical checks are random, probability driven, intelligence led or however Customs decides but not mandatory.
I don’t believe it’s any different at any of the EU borders, so won’t be with Ireland.

 

But you can't have zero checks otherwise there is no incentive for compliance - yes of course this load of cheap Chinese kids toys aren't painted in lead based paint or of course this load of mobile phones is only valued at £500.

You always need physical infrastructure at a border as you always need to do some checks 

[puipuitom]

31 minutes ago, superal said:

The UK will be 10 billion Euros better off per year just standing still . That figure is the net balance per annum 2017 figures . That of course means the EU will be minus 10 billion Euros . I know where my bet would go for a success .   If the EU were able to make up the loss of UK trade why are they not already doing it ?   However I think that trading will continue as it is albeit with some border delays which can be factored in but if that word " Tariffs " comes in then it will be the start of tit for tat etc .

a) when the UK leaves the EU, import duty will be levied on all, what enters the EU. This is MUCH more than the about GBP 8 Bn/yr ( see HoC library CBP 7881 of 24 June '19 )  the UK pays now as "contribution". Remind also WHAT is exported ( but the EU can buy elsewere) and WHAT is imported ( but difficult to replace) from the EU into the UK.

b) Looking to the fall of the GBP the last 2 weeks... this results in an about GBP 22 Bn less income and about the same in higher purchasing costs. So a loss of a 44 Bn on year basis over the trading value of 2018.… Compare this with the UK contribution… 

[bristolboy]

5 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

You hope...   Of course the value of RR and Bently form a big part in overall earning in British industry…. 

Bye-the-way: how many parts are imported from continental EU ? I agree, the skilled hands of the workers mean here more than the quality of the components.

 

For Folls Royce 8% of its parts are made in the UK. I couldn't find a percentage for Bentley, but clearly it's considerable.

Rolls-Royce Says Production Could Be Crippled By Brexit Issues

The automaker’s just-in-time production system means it doesn’t typically hold parts for more than 24 hours and this method of production could be harmed by Brexit, whether or not the UK reaches a deal with the European Union...

Only 8 per cent of Rolls-Royce parts are produced in the UK. As such, the company imports roughly 32,000 parts from more than 600 global suppliers to build its vehicles.

https://www.carscoops.com/2019/01/rolls-royce-says-production-crippled-brexit-issues/

 

Bentley's return to profit at risk under no-deal Brexit

Like other automakers, Bentley is taking steps to prepare, including building up stocks of imported parts to 10 days from two days and building a higher proportion of cars for some non-European markets in the next few months.

https://www.autonews.com/manufacturing/bentleys-return-profit-risk-under-no-deal-brexit

[tebee]

1 hour ago, nauseus said:

Your added "gizmos" are the answer. 

 

SM - all single market (EU) rules and conditions.

CU - common tariffs / no separate FTA's / ECJ authority.

 

 

I always find it ironic when brexiters decry the Sm - it was a British invention, designed to give the UK a big advantage in those areas it excels in - finance and services. Most normal FTAs don't include provisions for services  they are strictly for goods, something that post Thatcher UK is not very good at.

 

We could live with being outside the CU, like Switzerland, but that doesn't solve the NI problem.  

 

So you want to go back from the FTA on steroids  that the SM is, to a simple goods based FTA, even though it would damage those parts of the economy the UK is good at, while helping the EU with those parts it is good at ?

[puipuitom]

10 minutes ago, tebee said:

But you can't have zero checks otherwise there is no incentive for compliance - yes of course this load of cheap Chinese kids toys aren't painted in lead based paint or of course this load of mobile phones is only valued at £500.

You always need physical infrastructure at a border as you always need to do some checks 

Do not mix up outer EU border (ports) and inter-EU transports.

In Rotterdam and Antwerp less as 1% of the incoming containers from outside the EU are checked ( and much less visually inspected). And of course ex Columbia a lot intensive as coming from Canada. Containers arriving on the "big ferries" like from Asia, entering e.g. Rotterdam, there customs cleared ( and NOT in the final destination ports as then also this transport costs are included in the CFR ( cost freight) over which import duty is levied) and transported further to… Hull, New Castle, Edinburgh, Aberdeen... Stockholm, Riga etc

[bristolboy]

1 minute ago, puipuitom said:

Do not mix up outer EU border (ports) and inter-EU transports.

In Rotterdam and Antwerp less as 1% of the incoming containers from outside the EU are checked ( and much less visually inspected). And of course ex Columbia a lot intensive as coming from Canada. Containers arriving on the "big ferries" like from Asia, entering e.g. Rotterdam, there customs cleared ( and NOT in the final destination ports as then also this transport costs are included in the CFR ( cost freight) over which import duty is levied) and transported further to… Hull, New Castle, Edinburgh, Aberdeen... Stockholm, Riga etc

But they will be subject to the inevitable delays that are part of the importation process. Whereas intra-EU shipments will not be.

[Chelseafan]

58 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

But for the moment: at NO INTER-EU BORDER anything is checked, not on lorries, nor in private cars. ONLY and ONLY for outgoing towards the UK seen illegal migrants. Just look at the first the best video about the (un)loading in these ports. Brexiteers… not the slightest ideas about the present reality. ( stuck at the early 70's when the UK was not an EU member state ). Advise: learn to check with Google or so, e.g. with "inter EU border checks ". 

I would advise your learn to check Google again with "Inter EU border checks" as this only applies to Schengen. The UK is not part of Schengen

 

My lorries are pulled for screening all the time at Dover. My consignments from Thailand that arrive into any UK port are randomly inspected.

 

[puipuitom]

59 minutes ago, Loiner said:

Not so. There is no MUST about it.

The UK has thousands of daily import shipments at scores of ports and not every one of them is checked. It’s all a paper/IT process. Physical checks are random, probability driven, intelligence led or however Customs decides but not mandatory.
I don’t believe it’s any different at any of the EU borders, so won’t be with Ireland.

 

And everybody is 100,0000 % honest about what is written on the documents = exactly the content of the containers….

2) You mix up goods arriving at the EU outer border (ports) and inter-EU transports. I presume the UK will NOT accept a container from Colombia or so, without ANY visual check straight over the border into NI etc.

You have ANY experience in logistics from outside the EU ? I presume as nearly all Brexiteers; Zero,nothing. I am since 1977 in that business. I would not risk for my (grand)children ANY open outer EU border.

[Chelseafan]

1 hour ago, puipuitom said:

The heavily fortified and unpassable border between the EU member states Belgium and Netherlands… Same between EVERY two EU member states. ONLY at ports leaving from the EU towards the UK there is a check for illegal passengers, but NOT for merchandise. Till of course 1 Nov 00:00:00 h

 

But for the moment: at NO INTER-EU BORDER anything is checked, not on lorries, nor in private cars or persons. Even forbidden ( only for a temporary action) Read EU regulations . ONLY and ONLY for outgoing towards the UK seen illegal migrants. Just look at the first the best video about the (un)loading in these ports. Brexiteers… not the slightest ideas about the present reality.

 

Sorry, you're wrong about the UK. Goods (not just migrants) can be inspected and off loaded coming into and out of the UK through an EU destination (Calais being the major one). I'm not saying every lorry is checked.

 

 

[tebee]

2 minutes ago, Chelseafan said:

I would advise your learn to check Google again with "Inter EU border checks" as this only applies to Schengen. The UK is not part of Schengen

 

My lorries are pulled for screening all the time at Dover. My consignments from Thailand that arrive into any UK port are randomly inspected.

 

Schengen has absolutely nothing to do with whether a lorry will be checked or not  as it has nothing to do with the movement of goods, but is solely concerned with the movement of people.

 

Indeed, lorries are checked entering Switzerland, which is part of  Schengen, simply because it is not part of the CU.

Stuff from Thailand will be checked because  Thailand is not part of the EU!

 

However lorries going Dover-Calais are not checked and just give a simple declaration of what they are carrying. 

[bristolboy]

56 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

 

 

 

Financial Services Companies Find Stable Home in the Netherlands ...

 

https://investinholland.com › Blog

 

3 jun. 2019 - Among the list include top financial services firms like Azimo, MarketAxess, ... a new venue in Amsterdam to ensure the company is well-positioned in light of Brexit. ... 

 

But it hasn't happened in a big way yet. Over time, through attrition, most likely it will.