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Is the closure of your favorite bar or restaurant imminent?


Leaver

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On 9/20/2021 at 7:09 AM, scubascuba3 said:

He should have stopped paying rent when covid started, that was the big mistake, it was clear to me it had an unknown end date

 

I think it would be unrealistic for The Nightwish Group to walk away, completely.  However, where I agree with you is, they should have handed back the keys for the bars that had the highest rents with the Thai landlords that were not prepared to offer any covid discounts.  

 

I have no doubt that some greedy Thai landlords are holding tenants to ransom here.  For many, there was / is a point where it actually becomes financially beneficial to walk away.  I would suggest some have held on past that point, to their own detriment.  

 

Those holding onto a lease that is diminishing as time goes on, with no sign of tourists coming back here any time soon, are just prolonging their misery.  

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On 9/20/2021 at 3:49 AM, peeglen said:

They'll pay. I appreciate the man's sense of humour and his bitterness, but he (and the foreign investors) will pay because of sunk cost fallacy and having nowhere else to go. 

 

I agree, however, the investors in the Retox Bar decided it best to close.  Time will tell who made the right decision.  

 

The Nightwish Group have several investors.  It only takes one to walk away, and that increases the liability of all the others.  Some may take on the other shares, but may be not.  

 

On 9/20/2021 at 3:49 AM, peeglen said:

They've invested so much in promoting and building up Soi 6 that they won't walk away.

 

Something I'm sure the Thai landlords are taking advantage of.  

 

On 9/20/2021 at 3:49 AM, peeglen said:

If they do, the shops will sit empty for a spell and new tenants will move in when (and if ever) the business climate is right. 

 

Of course, they will not sit empty for ever, but in my opinion, the business climate will not be favourable for investment, regardless of the location, for quite some time.  Possibly looking at ell into 2023.  

 

On 9/20/2021 at 3:49 AM, peeglen said:

The comment about the tenancy "contracts" reflects a bit of optimism, because this man isn't inexperienced.  Go to court with a wealthy, connected Thai land owner and let us know how it goes; not well would be my guess.

 

Yes.  Thailand is such a great place to do business.  ????  

 

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8 hours ago, Leaver said:

Word starting to spread that all the bars in Soi Made in Thailand are finished.  

 

The land will no doubt be redeveloped.  

Why do you think Pattaya is successful at attracting  new investment like this Leaver ? What are they seeing that you are not ?

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2 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

Good question, kinyara.  

 

It's not that I am not seeing it, it's just whether or not such investment will be successful, or not, in the future.  Only time will tell.

 

I have often said that tin roof beer bars day's are numbered here.  Main reason is, they are ground floor.  The land owner is wasting the strata. (the air above the tin roof)

 

What's the point of having 50 beer bars under a tin roof, when you can build a condo block or hotel that has 30 floors with 10 condo's / hotel rooms per floor, so 300 rentals or sales? 

 

Another reason was, who is going to pay 90 baht to sit in the heat, dust, traffic noise, mosquitos, beggars, and hawkers, whilst listening to loud <deleted> music by a young Thai DJ, and paying to take a leak in filthy toilets, when for the same price, or cheaper, you can go to a nice gentleman's club, for example?  

 

The use of the land changes.  They can now build and sell condo's with water views to wealthy Bangkokians, for example.  

 

However, on the point of investment, let's just imagine a big Chinese company bought the land where Soi Made in Thailand sits.  The land would be in a Thai company's name, but controlled through the usual methods. 

 

Imagine they built something like The Base, or a large hotel.  Say they do a deal with all the Chinese tour companies for their customers to stay there, or rent the condo's to Chinese holiday makers on the equivalent of the AirBnB platform in China, like what happens at The Base and elsewhere.

 

The Thai land owner gets their money for the sale of the parcel of land, obviously.  

 

A Chinese architect will probably be used to design the building.

 

A Thai construction company will probably be used, but many of them use Burmese laborers.  

 

A lot of the construction materials will be made in Thailand, but a lot also made in China.  For all we know, for such a project, tiles, taps etc may be shipped from China by the company, similar to the way they did in Sihanoukville in Cambodia for the casinos.  

 

Once completed, there's some work for some 300 baht a day Thai's, but many of the cleaners may be Burmese as well.

 

The rental transactions are all done in China.  That money never even hits Thailand.  

 

So, what really has been "invested" in Pattaya / Thailand in this case?  

 

Whilst the above is a hypothetical for Soi Made in Thailand, we have already seen it with the tourism industry in Thailand.  Chinese owned hotels, boats, buses, restaurants etc.  They even built a fake Thai Temple for Chinese tourists.  Remember that one?

 

Getting back to general "investment" in Pattaya.  In years gone by we have seen many starry eyed newbies open a bar, only to go broke 12 to 18 months later.  In many cases, these guys have over capitalized, building it bigger, newer, shinier etc, only to see the market was not prepared to pay 100 baht a beer, for example.  

 

So, there's sound investment, then there is a waste of time and money.  

 

Time will tell for many new businesses and refurbs around Soi LK Metro, Pothole, Baukhao and Tree Town, and whilst this area may do well in the future, it comes at the expense of bars and nightclubs going broke in other areas. 

 

In my opinion, Walking Street will not be able to compete.  Their rents are too high, which is reflected in their pricing, with most of the market is no longer prepared to pay, or can afford to pay, with a viable alternative a short distance away.  

 

So, whilst there may be investment in one area, what about the lost investment in another area, or do you think there are enough tourists, particularly western tourists,  to keep building endless bars, hotels, shopping malls, restaurants, gogo's, gentleman's clubs etc?  

 

 

Let's see who has actually bought the Made In Thailand plot and what the plans are. If the tenants have been given the order to clear out their stuff I guess it won't be long before that's revealed. I've got absolutely no idea what's going to fill/replace all the vacant premises, it's the biggest blank canvas I've ever seen,  but the MIT land deal is an interesting prime site move.  I thought there was far too many poorly occupied bar complexes before the meltdown, from what I've read MIT wasn't doing that well, so I can't see the demand for more.

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On 10/30/2021 at 7:21 PM, kinyara said:

Let's see who has actually bought the Made In Thailand plot and what the plans are. If the tenants have been given the order to clear out their stuff I guess it won't be long before that's revealed. I've got absolutely no idea what's going to fill/replace all the vacant premises, it's the biggest blank canvas I've ever seen,  but the MIT land deal is an interesting prime site move.  I thought there was far too many poorly occupied bar complexes before the meltdown, from what I've read MIT wasn't doing that well, so I can't see the demand for more.

 

Yes, it's an interesting parcel on land, with an easy and cheap site clean up, for as you say, a blank canvas.  

 

If the Thai landlord had cheaper rents, perhaps all the bars in there would have been tenanted, hence, no demand for Tree Town.

 

Anyway,  it will be interesting to see what development takes place there.  

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41 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Always figured allowing beer bars to rent on land was a stop gap for the owners, greedily waiting for land prices to rise exponentially as availability is squeezed. A few years of no rent has pushed the idea of selling along. Is Treetown safe?

Why refer to them as greedy, I'm sure many that retired here have benefitted or continue to benefit from the increase in property ownership and investments in their home country. No doubt they'd be regarded as shrewd and successful investors whereas a Thai doing the same is referred to as greedy. 

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10 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

I think it applies, wanting yet more is always considered as greedy. Perhaps you need to look elsewhere for the early morning argument. 

I'm not looking for an argument, it's a common narrative that comes up regularly and it seems to me a double standard based purely on nothing more than nationality, Westerner = successful, Thai = greedy.

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18 minutes ago, kinyara said:

I'm not looking for an argument, it's a common narrative that comes up regularly and it seems to me a double standard based purely on nothing more than nationality, Westerner = successful, Thai = greedy.

I know it was recently Halloween, but the discrimination skeleton is not hiding in every closet....I never mentioned any nationality, you conjured it up. 

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If you buy a land, it is usually (almost always) in order to make a profit later. In many cases, people did buy lands so many years ago for the next generations. Nothing wrong with selling when the price increased significantly. It's not about greed but common sense. If you are sitting on a land valued at a few hundred millions, it makes sense to sell it and allow you and your family to become financially comfortable/wealthy.

 

Otherwise, you mean anyone investing in anything is greedy? It doesn't make sense, that would mean everyone is greedy as we all invest in something at some point in our life. And we don't do it for the world's welfare, we do it for our own gain. Just my opinion...

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On 10/29/2021 at 12:09 AM, Leaver said:

Word starting to spread that all the bars in Soi Made in Thailand are finished.  

 

The land will no doubt be redeveloped.  

Another nail in Pattaya's coffin. In a few years there will be nothing left of the Pattaya heaven we had in 2006-2012. Won't be worth flying 13,000 miles.

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7 hours ago, Henryford said:

Another nail in Pattaya's coffin. In a few years there will be nothing left of the Pattaya heaven we had in 2006-2012. Won't be worth flying 13,000 miles.

One mans heaven is anothers hell.....

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3 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

I don't know the man personally, but my post was not attacking his character.  I found that Youtube clip to be humorous, and judging by the comments, so did many others.

 

This doesn't detract from the fact one of his Thai landlords put their hands out for over a million baht key money when they know everything has been closed here for months.  

 

I haven't always agreed with his business decisions.  For example, the music is so loud in all of his 25 bars that myself and my expats friends, as well as visiting friends, basically go straight upstairs, so his company misses out on a "session" of drinking with the girls, and the going upstairs.  

 

I also thought it strange he never diversified.  He consolidated his position on Soi 6, with nothing else.  Although that has changed recently with the acquisition of a gym etc.

 

In my opinion, Bryan placed all his faith on Soi 6's reputation, but then went and changed the complexion of that very reputation by changing the designs of the bars, and the vibe inside all of the bars. Eg. opening them all up, and super loud music in all of them. 

 

There's a joke going around some circles of expats here where they have nick named Soi 6 as Soi McDonalds, because all the bars on the soi are now the same.  Indeed, I have heard this nick name in a few different conversations.  I can see how the name would have come about.

 

If you have one, two, or possibly three bars, and make them all the same, for what you believe was a successful business model in the first bar, fair play.  However, if you have 25 bars all on one soi and make them all the same, then, in my opinion, you are not offering something for everyone, therefore, you will surely lose one or more segments of the market.  In the case of myself, and my friends, he hasn't lost us as customers, only due to the nature of "hospitality" on Soi 6, but he has certainly lost revenue from us, as we no longer spend time in his bars drinking, due to the ridiculously loud volume of music.  At 90 to 100 baht a beer in his bars, that can be a consider loss of revenue.

 

For the record (no pun intended) neither myself, or my friends, could care less what style of music is played by the young managers.  We don't care if it's opera or heavy metal, or anything in between, basically, because we are there to party with the girls.  However, when the music is that loud the staff can't even hear your drink order from a few feet away and you are yelling it, so they have to turn their head and you directly yell it in their ear for any chance for the order to be heard, then what chance is there you can party with your friends and the girls, buying plenty of drinks, and lady drinks, before going upstairs? 

 

I know he slowly accumulated investors and bars, but as the company gained investment, he may have set up a more sustainable future for the company by slowly accumulating bars in a particular run down and cheap soi that was in a good location that offered shop fronts down stair and rooms upstairs.  Eg. Soi Pothole, or maybe Soi Post Office or similar. 

 

Owning 25 bars on Soi Pothole, for example, not only means vastly cheaper rents over longer leases, put his company would practically own the soi, to the point Soi Pothole gets renamed Soi Nightwish.  Due to cheaper rents, the company could have offered cheaper prices, particularly important in a price sensitive and highly competitive environment such as Pattaya, and gone in direct competition with Soi 6.  The struggling bar owners left on Soi 6 would have been left paying their high rents and bleeding money, whilst Nightwish turned a dead soi into their own soi and thrived.

 

I wish Bryan and The Nightwish Group well in the future.  I'm not sure why the vibe of all of his bars only seems to target guys in their 20's with a nightclub style and volume of music, which tends to exclude guys 40's and up, which is a big part of the market. 

 

I would have thought out of 25 bars at least one or two could have ben left enclosed, and one or two having a middle aged bar manager playing music to suit the bar's customer age group, and at an appropriate level for a bar.  I'm sure these bars would have been popular, probably more so than his other 20 bars or so being run in the Nightwish McDonalds style.  ????  

 

I am sure myself and my friends have the finances, and drinking pace, to go toe to toe with the with younger guys as far as spending money in the bar, yet, his business model, across every single bar his company owns on the Soi 6, seems to repel us.  

They opened two bars on soi pothole, orange and blue bar on the right half way down, both flopped, one or both closed or sold already

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32 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

They opened two bars on soi pothole, orange and blue bar on the right half way down, both flopped, one or both closed or sold already

 

Yes, I know that, but I believe that was due to the company (Bryan) deciding to go "all in" on Soi 6.  

 

25 bars on Soi 6, with high very high rents, or 25 bars on Soi Pothole, for example.  Which location and rents would have stood the company in a better position long into the future, regardless of covid?   

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4 minutes ago, Leaver said:

 

Yes, I know that, but I believe that was due to the company (Bryan) deciding to go "all in" on Soi 6.  

 

25 bars on Soi 6, with high very high rents, or 25 bars on Soi Pothole, for example.  Which location and rents would have stood the company in a better position long into the future, regardless of covid?   

He closed them because they were empty always apart from fuglies, people were boycotting them and going to other bars instead, personally I'd prefer pothole to have a majority of massage shops

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21 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

He closed them because they were empty always apart from fuglies, people were boycotting them and going to other bars instead, personally I'd prefer pothole to have a majority of massage shops

Soi Pothole was just an example.  Soi Post Office was another example I gave.

 

Point being is, 25 bars could have been bought for cheap, with cheaper rents, and longer leases, on a struggling soi, but with a good location, and the Nightwish company could have made it their own soi, whilst watching Soi 6 struggle to pay their rent and compete with them.

 

It would have given the Nighwish company a lot more flexibility, especially price wise. 

 

Instead, they are stuck on the wheel of passing higher rents onto customers, all the while whilst Soi 6 style bars are popping up around the Baukhao, LK Metro, Pothole Tree Town area.       

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On 11/2/2021 at 7:14 AM, kinyara said:

I'm not looking for an argument, it's a common narrative that comes up regularly and it seems to me a double standard based purely on nothing more than nationality, Westerner = successful, Thai = greedy.

 

There are many accounts from foreign business owners that have taken the risk and rented a property, worked hard, built up their business, and right at the time when they should be reaping the rewards of their risk and hard work, a new lease falls due and the greedy Thai landlord ups the rent, thinking it's all about location location, not a good business owner.  

 

On many occasions over the years I have been talking with business owners when they have commented that their Thai landlord is driving past and how they wish their business wasn't busy at the time because it will mean a rent increase shortly.

 

Rather than seeing their tenant's business is doing well, so there will be no problems paying the rent, or having their property vacated, they are looking to screw them with a rent rise.  

 

It's like musical chairs here for cheaper rent here, because business owners are basically slaves to their Thai landlord.  

 

There's adjustments for inflation, and then there's greed.    

 

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14 minutes ago, Leaver said:

 

I have no problem with a Thai landlord selling their parcel of land to whoever, for whatever price, whenever they want. It's their land. 

 

However, when Thai landlords keep upping the rents here, pushing and pushing the consumer market, until it breaks, then there is a problem.  Those rent increases flow on to the consumer, which is mainly tourists, but also expats.  

 

I think it got to that point in the high season before covid.  It was dead here.   

 

Once a market is lost, it's very difficult to get it back. Once again, Pattaya could well go down the same path as the Nokia phone company.  They had a huge market share, but ultimately went broke.

 

In my opinion, Pattaya / Thailand is outpricing itself in the South East Asia tourism market.  It has placed itself in an unusual position where it's still too cheap and nasty for those with a lot of money, and becoming too expensive for those with not much money. 

 

A market correction was needed here, pre covid. 

 

The fact that many cheap bars have been built in Tree Town, despite for sale and for rent signs everywhere across the city, tells me Thai landlords are still way out of touch with reality.  

 

 

I agree with you regarding rental costs, I know many owners have chased their tenants out of a decent deals since they believed they could get more. In this case, yes greed was applied. 

 

I actually know of some places in Bkk (not Pattaya) where landlords have been very understanding during Covid. Now that things are changing, I expect full rates or more being charged.

 

Struggling businesses will probably suffer even more now.

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10 minutes ago, BKKTRAVELER said:

Struggling businesses will probably suffer even more now.

 

Yes.  Unfortunately, there will be a period where the rent returns to full price, yet tourism is far from being back into full swing. 

 

Tourism may not get to the point where it can sustain pre covid rents until well into 2022, possibly beyond. 

 

Good luck explaining that to a Thai landlord.  

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