Economist pessimistic about second half outlook

[webfact]

Economist pessimistic about second half outlook

By The Nation

 

 

Productivity in the agricultural sector will continue to decline during the third and fourth quarters of this year due to the flooding caused by tropical storm Podul, according to Rangsit University’s Economic and Business Research Centre - Institute of Economics.

 

Asst Prof Anusorn Tamajai, the Centre’s director, said that agricultural productivity has already shrunk by 1.1 per cent in the second quarter and the flooding will drive up prices of crops and food during the remaining part of the year.

 

“The economic impact and the quality of life of the people as a result of floods and droughts are much higher than they should be and this reflects the country’s failed water management policy,” he said. “With the increasingly harsh effects of global warming, nature is warning us that we must help to better protect the environment. The government must also have serious environmental policies. Easing the environmental standards to attract foreign investment without considering the long-term impacts will turn out to be a big burden to society in the future.”

 

He added that measures designed to help those suffering may be hampered by the decentralized administrative structure of the country.

 

“The less decentralized fiscal power means that local government organizations are therefore slower to respond to the suffering of people in areas affected by natural disasters. They are less efficient and there are inadequate equipment and tools,” he added. “A public assistance budget should be allocated. Repairing roads and public buildings of the government may have to wait for the 2020 budget, which will be approved late and will be available in February next year.”

 

Asst Prof Anusorn noted that the Thai economy continued to face many tough internal factors.

 

“The impact of the trade war has become stronger, and it is beginning to affect consumer products. The US and China have raised taxes as announced on September 1, covering products worth US$187 billion (made up of US-imposed tax on $112 billion worth of goods and China’s tit-for-tat tax on $75 billion),” he said.

 

“There are concerns about the employment in the Thai export sector and the impact on the trade partners of Thailand that rely heavily on exports to China.

 

As a result, these Thai trading partners including South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Australia and Hong Kong have been ordering fewer intermediate products and raw materials from Thailand,’ he said, adding that these countries account for 25-26 per cent of Thailand’s total export value.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30375682

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2019-09-02

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[timendres]

26 minutes ago, webfact said:

“The economic impact and the quality of life of the people as a result of floods and droughts are much higher than they should be and this reflects the country’s failed water management policy,”

More and more, it looks like Thailand would seriously benefit from professors running this country.

[Chang_paarp]

Someone was very quick in getting their opinion into the press. 

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Productivity in the agricultural sector will continue to decline during the third and fourth quarters of this year due to the flooding caused by tropical storm Podul, according to Rangsit University’s Economic and Business Research Centre - Institute of Economics.

 

His opinion seems very sound and based on actual research and good technical knowledge.

[mok199]

Hanging on that high bhat like grim death...

[wreckingcountry]

Ah the incompetent decisions made by Juntas economic place men not gonna get the blame .. it’s the hurricane and chinese

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

 

[Isaan sailor]

Good to read a Thai economist confirm what the canaries in the coal mine (expats on T.V.) have been posting for months, if not years.  Thai Baht sky high now.  And it sure looks like foreign (ChiCom) hot money inflows from bond sales have taken their toll on the Thai economy.  And the sooner Bank of Thailand realises this—the sooner this insanity will end.

[soalbundy]

40 minutes ago, mok199 said:

Hanging on that high bhat like grim death...

it climbed again today

[soalbundy]

39 minutes ago, wreckingcountry said:

Ah the incompetent decisions made by Juntas economic place men not gonna get the blame .. it’s the hurricane and chinese

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

 

It's the drought and the Chinese, the hurricane was just another slap

[Jimbo in Thailand]

6 hours ago, timendres said:

More and more, it looks like Thailand would seriously benefit from [farang] professors running this country.

There, fixed it for you timeendres!  ????

[Thomas J]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

roductivity in the agricultural sector will continue to decline during the third and fourth quarters of this year due to the flooding caused by tropical storm Podul, according to Rangsit University’s Economic and Business Research Centre - Institute of Economics.

There was a story about an Economic Professor who had accurately predicted the economy 78 times.  When asked his secret he said "Well I predict a lot"  If any of these braniacs really knew what the direction of the economy was they would be raking in millions in the stock market rather than teaching theory in college.  Winston Churchill once said that a politician had the ability to tell what was going to happen next week, next month, and next year and after being elected be able to tell why not of it happened.  The same is true of Economists. 

[Srikcir]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

“The less decentralized fiscal power means that local government organizations are therefore slower to respond to the suffering of people in areas affected by natural disasters. They are less efficient and there are inadequate equipment and tools,”

The opposite is typically true.

The national government is usually the least aware of local conditions affected by natural disasters and relies on local leadership to help the national government to effectively direct its resources to assure local government has adequate resources for disaster assistance in advance.

 

Frankly, it sounds more like (if the cited situation is true) that the Prayut et al national government had disenfranchised local governments for whatever reason from advanced federal assistance perhaps to force a dependency position from local governments.

 

But that explanation is contrary to Prayut's pre-2019 election wherein he implanted the army's Internal Security Operations Command (ISOC - the same army group responsible for fighting the southern Muslim insurgency!) into local Thai governments with political authority to oversee and maintain a close relationship between the national government and local governments. From that perspective either ISOC has failed its responsibility to both the national government and local governments, or it has refused cooperation. Leaving now a newly elected government perhaps unfamiliar in part of ISOC's role with local governments and scrambling to repair coordination between the national government and local governments during a natural disaster.

[RichardColeman]

I'm pretty sure that it is Farang rain that is to blame.

[Jano22]

Strange. Yesterday i read i BP that the economy will rebound in the second half.