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[snoop1130]

Brexit-worn Britain looks on track for recession - PMI

By Andy Bruce

 

FILE PHOTO: People walk through the Canary Wharf financial district of London, Britain, December 7, 2018. REUTERS/Simon Dawson

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s economy is in serious danger of entering its first recession since the financial crisis as business confidence wilts in the Brexit chaos, a closely watched business survey showed on Wednesday.

 

Growth in Britain’s dominant services sector slowed to a crawl in August and business expectations were at their lowest in more than three years, according to the IHS Markit/CIPS UK Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).

 

Its headline reading fell to 50.6 from 51.4 in July — barely above the 50 barrier between growth and contraction. A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to a reading of 51.0.

 

The survey added to questions over Britain’s ability to bounce back from an economic contraction in the second quarter when a hangover from the stockpiling boom before the original Brexit deadline in March hit output.

 

PMI compiler IHS Markit said the overall economy looked on track to shrink again in the July-September period at a quarterly rate of 0.1% — a result that would officially herald a recession.

Signs the economy is fading will raise the stakes in the political crisis gripping Britain.

 

Prime Minister Boris Johnson will try to call a snap election on Wednesday after lawmakers seeking to prevent him taking Britain out of the European Union without a divorce deal dealt him a humbling parliamentary defeat.

 

“A lot will hinge on the events today in Westminster, but the bottom line is that risk of a ‘no deal’ Brexit on 31 October is unlikely to fade completely after this week. This will continue to keep the pressure on underlying growth,” ING economist James Smith said.

 

August marked the eighth month running in which the British composite PMI, covering both the manufacturing and services sectors, has underperformed the euro zone equivalent.

 

The British PMI’s gauge of optimism in the services sector fell to its lowest level since July 2016, the month just after the Brexit vote, while growth in new orders slowed sharply.

 

Some economists say surveys like the PMIs tend to overstate the extent of upturns and downturns, but they are nonetheless closely watched by the Bank of England as early indicators of moves in the wider economy.

 

“The PMIs are excessively influenced by business sentiment and have given a misleadingly weak steer during the past 12 months of heightened political uncertainty,” said Samuel Tombs, economist at consultancy Pantheon Economics.

 

BoE Governor Mark Carney and other members of the Monetary Policy Committee are due to answer questions from lawmakers at 1315 GMT.

 

JPMorgan said the weakening data could prompt the BoE to consider whether it might need to cut interest rates in scenarios other than a no-deal Brexit, such as an extension of the Brexit deadline with no clarity on what happens next.

 

“We do not yet expect the BoE to signal a significant shift in tone while the question of the timing and outcome of a snap election is still up in the air. But the odds of a BoE cut this year — even if no-deal is avoided — are going up,” said JPMorgan economist Allan Monks in a note to clients.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-09-04

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[bkk6060]

Golly, I certainly hope this is not true.

I only hope the best for the British government and its people.

Let´s hope everything works out for the best.

[Loiner]

Reuter’s and economists trying to talk up a recession now. Is there end to their Project Fear? All in support of the Remainer lies of Armageddon.


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[zorrow424]

26 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

Golly, I certainly hope this is not true.

I only hope the best for the British government and its people.

Let´s hope everything works out for the best.

Now this is remarkable with Germany,France too teetering on the edge

[Scot123]

6 minutes ago, Loiner said:

Reuter’s and economists trying to talk up a recession now. Is there end to their Project Fear? All in support of the Remainer lies of Armageddon.


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The blame for the situation is Cameron, May and the rest of the treasonous elite remainders who have caused the uncertainty and prayed for desaster for the country instead of getting on with leaving the EU as the people voted for. 

[beautifulthailand99]

9 minutes ago, Scot123 said:

The blame for the situation is Cameron, May and the rest of the treasonous elite remainders who have caused the uncertainty and prayed for desaster for the country instead of getting on with leaving the EU as the people voted for. 

Let's just agree with Cameron and leave it at that. On that we agree 1 million percent. ????

[Basil B]

Predictable...

 

When you have a bunch of clowns for a Government do you expect anything else other than a circus???, Give Mogg a top hat and a whip and he can be the ring master...

Edited September 4, 2019 by Basil B

[RuamRudy]

2 hours ago, Basil B said:

Predictable...

 

When you have a bunch of clowns for a Government do you expect anything else other than a circus???, Give Mogg a top hat and a whip and he can be the ring master...

Mogg will be too busy reaping the fruits of his efforts, as pater brought him up to do, to worry about continuing to entertain the proles. He will leave that to the clown in No 10.

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

3 hours ago, Scot123 said:

The blame for the situation is Cameron, May and the rest of the treasonous elite remainders who have caused the uncertainty and prayed for desaster for the country instead of getting on with leaving the EU as the people voted for. 

It’s always somebody else’s fault.

[nauseus]

Not sure why the UK is especially highlighted here but not surprised either, I suppose.

 

Economic data for many countries are worsening. The EU is not even mentioned but there are big problems brewing there and all around the world.

[Snackbar]

The sheeple believe the click bait and don’t consider the prevailing propaganda. The UK is divided 52/48. The 48% (The Guardian, The BBC) are shouting a lot louder to make their point relevant. 

 

This prediction reflects the fall in the service sector and stagnant growth in manufacturing, ignores retail and government spending, both increasing July - Sept. UK’s car production ceased in July (-10%)

[Denim]

14 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

I only hope the best for the British government and its people.

 

The people yes .............. the politicians should be swinging from lamposts.

[Laughing Gravy]

 

 

What an incredible shambles this is. Up and down the UK millions commute, sit in traffic, catch trains, work, juggle school with work, cope with mortgages and pay taxes. Companies often struggle, invest, research, compete. Those millions paying taxes pay for the salaries, upkeep, waste, incompetence and corruption of that vile body of self-seeking, low calibre, vain MPs.

 

Their recent history of revolving doors, fees for lobbyists, cash for questions, brown envelopes, perjury, expenses and moat cleaning had already cast a foul odour about them. We have had 3 years of incompetent in-fightinhg in trying to overturn a referendum commissioned by themselves! We even had the spectacle of a jailed Labour MP being released from prison, complete with anklet, to cast a single vote that was enough to carry a HofC vote. Now we have the ludicrous situation where they will not allow a government to govern, they will not allow an election to be held, and they cannot perform government themselves.

 

They seem to have forgotten who pays for their vanity and to whom they are supposed to be accountable. I trust the electorate will mark which MPs denied them their say.

[rudi49jr]

1 hour ago, Snackbar said:

The UK is divided 52/48

I wouldn’t put any money on that any more if a new (and clear) referendum were being held today. Or tomorrow. 

[superal]

18 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

 

 

What an incredible shambles this is. Up and down the UK millions commute, sit in traffic, catch trains, work, juggle school with work, cope with mortgages and pay taxes. Companies often struggle, invest, research, compete. Those millions paying taxes pay for the salaries, upkeep, waste, incompetence and corruption of that vile body of self-seeking, low calibre, vain MPs.

 

Their recent history of revolving doors, fees for lobbyists, cash for questions, brown envelopes, perjury, expenses and moat cleaning had already cast a foul odour about them. We have had 3 years of incompetent in-fightinhg in trying to overturn a referendum commissioned by themselves! We even had the spectacle of a jailed Labour MP being released from prison, complete with anklet, to cast a single vote that was enough to carry a HofC vote. Now we have the ludicrous situation where they will not allow a government to govern, they will not allow an election to be held, and they cannot perform government themselves.

 

They seem to have forgotten who pays for their vanity and to whom they are supposed to be accountable. I trust the electorate will mark which MPs denied them their say.

Just when we thought that BJ was going to get us over the line he has been tripped up by traitors from his own party and others . Those opposing BJ are to me, also to others who voted remain , not fit to be in parliament . If they cannot understand the strategy of BJ negotiations it is unbelievable . 

So where does that leave us now with a " no deal " off the table ?  Answer is back to square one and the only deal on offer from the delighted EU council will be the TM deal .  OK so an election to follow will bring to the fore a coalition of the Tories and Farages Brexit party who have stated that they will not contest any Tory stronghold seat so as not to let in the Labour party or Liberal Dems  . Now that amalgamation will be the only way that the Tories will gain power with a decent working majority . What I am not sure of is the condition for coalition made by Farage when he said that the UK will leave without any talks with the EU. So is it possible that a new government could overturn the " no deal " bill ? 

BJ has another headache with the matter of his deselection of his parties renegades that features some prominent Tories from dependable strongholds . If they were to be ostracised they could well switch parties or go independent .         You could not write this unbelievable debacle . 

 

[Proboscis]

15 hours ago, Loiner said:

Reuter’s and economists trying to talk up a recession now. Is there end to their Project Fear? All in support of the Remainer lies of Armageddon.


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When Reuters talks about the possibility of Germany actually being in a recession (defined by two consecutive quarters of zero or below zero growth),  that is considered news. But when anyone says that the UK is about to go into a downturn, by a certain brand of brexiteer that is considered "project fear."

 

The most likely outcome for the UK if there were a no-deal exit from the EU is a lengthy recession or depression. This is in part because the UK will have decided to exit at a time when the world economy is highly likely to go into recession. It is also in part because of not having any trade deals with anyone other than a few south sea islands and PNG. 

 

This is not project fear but reality. I am not a UK citizen but I speak as someone with investments there that are devaluing. That is reality.

[nauseus]

3 hours ago, Victornoir said:

Yes, yes, other countries are suffering and the EU is going to collapse...
In the meantime, it is you who make us laugh. We come here to the show.

Well if I'm right, there's not much to laugh about. 

 

But if you are entertained, wonderful.

[nauseus]

16 hours ago, Loiner said:

Reuter’s and economists trying to talk up a recession now. Is there end to their Project Fear? All in support of the Remainer lies of Armageddon.


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The recession comments are valid I think, and widespread. They are not limited to the UK. The problem is global.  

[Baerboxer]

19 hours ago, Loiner said:

Reuter’s and economists trying to talk up a recession now. Is there end to their Project Fear? All in support of the Remainer lies of Armageddon.


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All project fear. Britain will be a magical land of milk and honey once they leave the EU. All Brexiters know this. That's what they do, drink beer and know things!

[Baerboxer]

3 hours ago, Proboscis said:

When Reuters talks about the possibility of Germany actually being in a recession (defined by two consecutive quarters of zero or below zero growth),  that is considered news. But when anyone says that the UK is about to go into a downturn, by a certain brand of brexiteer that is considered "project fear."

 

The most likely outcome for the UK if there were a no-deal exit from the EU is a lengthy recession or depression. This is in part because the UK will have decided to exit at a time when the world economy is highly likely to go into recession. It is also in part because of not having any trade deals with anyone other than a few south sea islands and PNG. 

 

This is not project fear but reality. I am not a UK citizen but I speak as someone with investments there that are devaluing. That is reality.

 

Intelligent and balanced post, thank you. But wasted on the Brexiters. They know best!

[dunroaming]

19 hours ago, Loiner said:

Reuter’s and economists trying to talk up a recession now. Is there end to their Project Fear? All in support of the Remainer lies of Armageddon.


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Keep telling yourself it's all project fear.  The chant does sound pretty pathetic now but I guess that is all you have as a response.

[adammike]

3 hours ago, superal said:

Just when we thought that BJ was going to get us over the line he has been tripped up by traitors from his own party and others . Those opposing BJ are to me, also to others who voted remain , not fit to be in parliament . If they cannot understand the strategy of BJ negotiations it is unbelievable . 

So where does that leave us now with a " no deal " off the table ?  Answer is back to square one and the only deal on offer from the delighted EU council will be the TM deal .  OK so an election to follow will bring to the fore a coalition of the Tories and Farages Brexit party who have stated that they will not contest any Tory stronghold seat so as not to let in the Labour party or Liberal Dems  . Now that amalgamation will be the only way that the Tories will gain power with a decent working majority . What I am not sure of is the condition for coalition made by Farage when he said that the UK will leave without any talks with the EU. So is it possible that a new government could overturn the " no deal " bill ? 

BJ has another headache with the matter of his deselection of his parties renegades that features some prominent Tories from dependable strongholds . If they were to be ostracised they could well switch parties or go independent .         You could not write this unbelievable debacle . 

 

Jacob Rees Mogs sister who is a MEP for the brexit party was on the TV last night and said the Brexit party would put up candidates for 625 seats in any upcoming GE,asked if the brexit party would enter into a pact with the Tory's dodged the question a bit by claiming "it's above my pay grade".There's not going to be a GE anytime soon do you really think Labour,Lib-Dems,SNP and the other party's in opposition are going to miss this once in a lifetime opportunity to mess with the Tory's party's head.

They have got Boris right where they want him and that's in the Spotlight where his waffle and lies will show the British people just how low he is.Lets see how long he lasts,No GE for at least six months or till he quits or gets fired that's what normally happens with him 

[shy coconut]

19 hours ago, Scot123 said:

The blame for the situation is Cameron, May and the rest of the treasonous elite remainders who have caused the uncertainty and prayed for desaster for the country instead of getting on with leaving the EU as the people voted for. 

Cameron was the test who opened this can of worms in the 1st place, offering the noisy

lions in his party a referendum to shut them up and get unity in the con party.

 

 

Well that worked out well didn't it ......

 

[adammike]

7 minutes ago, shy coconut said:

Cameron was the test who opened this can of worms in the 1st place, offering the noisy

lions in his party a referendum to shut them up and get unity in the con party.

 

 

Well that worked out well didn't it ......

 

He was also responsible for the 5 year fixed term parliament act, that means two thirds of the MPs have to vote to have a GE.Thats working out well for Boris.

[puipuitom]

20 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

Golly, I certainly hope this is not true.

I only hope the best for the British government and its people.

Let´s hope everything works out for the best.

Hope, believe, think…. are of ZERO interest. Figures, data, .. THAT's important. All exactly as about every finance and business person already is telling for over 3 years.

[puipuitom]

50 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

Keep telling yourself it's all project fear.  The chant does sound pretty pathetic now but I guess that is all you have as a response.

Ask the British pensionario's in TH: GBP from € 1,40 to now € 1,10 in just 3 1/2 year... all Project Fear… to be forced to LEAVE Thailand.

In 2-3 years a Brit on pension in TH will be as seldom as an Indian with a feather ornament in Manhatten.

[dunroaming]

11 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

Ask the British pensionario's in TH: GBP from € 1,40 to now € 1,10 in just 3 1/2 year... all Project Fear… to be forced to LEAVE Thailand.

In 2-3 years a Brit on pension in TH will be as seldom as an Indian with a feather ornament in Manhatten.

Funny!  But in reality I believe that the pound will recover, it is just a matter of when.  With a deal that translates into a "soft" Brexit it will bounce back quickly whereas with no-deal there would be a further dip and a slower recovery.  That is part of the reason to make sure that a deal is struck.

[superal]

1 hour ago, adammike said:

Jacob Rees Mogs sister who is a MEP for the brexit party was on the TV last night and said the Brexit party would put up candidates for 625 seats in any upcoming GE,asked if the brexit party would enter into a pact with the Tory's dodged the question a bit by claiming "it's above my pay grade".There's not going to be a GE anytime soon do you really think Labour,Lib-Dems,SNP and the other party's in opposition are going to miss this once in a lifetime opportunity to mess with the Tory's party's head.

They have got Boris right where they want him and that's in the Spotlight where his waffle and lies will show the British people just how low he is.Lets see how long he lasts,No GE for at least six months or till he quits or gets fired that's what normally happens with him 

Watched an interview with Farage this morning and he said he will make a pact with BJ and not contest any Tory seats . Together they will form a formidable g/e victory with a decent working majority in the H/O/C. However BJ has to agree with the Farage criteria which is to leave the EU with a clean cut , no conditions 

no deal . Got a feeling this is the only way out for BJ but there are so many twists and turns in this saga and its not over till the fat lady sings . Labour and JC ( womens blouse says BJ ) are gonna get a pounding in the H/O/C when they oppose a G/E .

[dunroaming]

6 minutes ago, superal said:

Watched an interview with Farage this morning and he said he will make a pact with BJ and not contest any Tory seats . Together they will form a formidable g/e victory with a decent working majority in the H/O/C. However BJ has to agree with the Farage criteria which is to leave the EU with a clean cut , no conditions 

no deal . Got a feeling this is the only way out for BJ but there are so many twists and turns in this saga and its not over till the fat lady sings . Labour and JC ( womens blouse says BJ ) are gonna get a pounding in the H/O/C when they oppose a G/E .

Farage has said for some time he would stand aside if BJ committed to leaving with no-deal.  Given that the bill is going through the Lords forbidding no deal that plan will probably be off of the table.  Farage is desperate to get into bed with Johnson but the ERG is unlikely to want that to happen.

[elliss]

21 hours ago, Basil B said:

Predictable...

 

When you have a bunch of clowns for a Government do you expect anything else other than a circus???, Give Mogg a top hat and a whip and he can be the ring master...

     Add a monocle,  and he would really look the part,

     the star attraction,  the clown of clowns,  Boris..

 

Edited September 5, 2019 by elliss