AUD / THB

[wavodavo]

22 hours ago, Bluetongue said:

RBA has cut how many times since 2012. Even though I dont doubt their superior intelligence, it is quite obvious that their tactic does not work, ie increase inflation and employment. Yet they keep at it,  it's the central banks of developed nations  in a racing death spiral to the bottom. Australia still has a way to go. Yet you get out in the real world over there and indeed in Europe and things are pretty much fine I reckon. Who fken know what the agenda really is?

The trouble with our governments (all of them ) is that they worry to much about getting voted back in every 3 years.So they are too sh ..t scared to invest in any nation building projects that costs $billions because the opposition party will criticise them over the debt and they will lose.

[Lacessit]

6 hours ago, Mick501 said:

This is an article about the leadership challenge, it it not?  How is this relevant to the state of the economy?  Or are you just a raving lefty as your previous statement suggests, and haven't the least understanding of the workings of economies?

It's relevant because all the Coalition is doing is kicking various cans down the road. They are doing SFA expenditure on infrastructure, which would stimulate the economy. Their only policy is achieving a budget surplus, so they can say what good economic managers they are. They have no energy policy, water security is a shambles, and they dish out a fortune of taxpayer money to consultants, instead of listening to the public service they employ to give advice. Federal Government has a new nickname - The Dairy.

Australians are going to pay dearly for their choice in 2019. In fact, it's already starting.

Edited October 2, 2019 by Lacessit

[Lacessit]

5 hours ago, xylophone said:

This in the hope of stimulating the economy, which to all intents and purposes is damn near dead.

 

There comes a point when the reserve bank has no more ammunition left to fix the economy, with regards to reducing rates, because they are down at extremely low rates as it is and if the economy has not been stimulated by this latest cut, then others will do nothing either.

 

Sad to see the Aussie dollar in that state as I have quite a few Aussie mates here, however whatever happens over the Tasman also happens in NZ and our dollar is currently languishing at around 19 baht to the dollar and has been steadily declining for a while now.

 

I get a small pension from NZ, so that is affected and I also get a small pension from the UK, so that is also affected. Luckily enough I am getting about 3.25% on my term investments and also being paid a dividend of 4.5% on some shares I have, so it is not all doom and gloom in my case, however I should really rein in the spending – – perhaps buy cheaper wine?
 

I'd suggest you look at investing in peer-to-peer lending. 3.25% on term investments means you barely have your head above water when inflation and taxes are taken into account. Check out Ratesetter.com.au and TruePillars.com.

[Lacessit]

Perhaps I was lucky to bring across the 800K baht when the Aussie dollar was fetching 29 of them. I haven't touched that for 10 years.

I would never consider buying property in Thailand. I could have bought many years ago, but my reasoning relative to the exchange rate is that property is very like marriage - very easy to get into, hellish to get out of. As at least one other poster has found.

I can wear the current fall in the dollar, because living in Thailand is still far cheaper for me than trying to live in Oz.

[gearbox]

9 hours ago, Brickbat said:

AUD taking a bath. 

Anyway, it helps Aust companies stay more competitive . Thailand has started dishing out 1000 b per person to its people to stimulate the economy , but the strong baht will have serious consequences. 

Which companies? The ASX is 40% financials and the cut will make the financial stocks less profitable. We can manufacture only multi vitamins and supplements, and that's not a high value added industry. 

The cut's purpose is to keep the property bubble afloat, as there are 3 pillars of the Aussie economy - the "holes", the houses" and the PR sold via university degrees to fill in the houses. 

Budget for even lower dollar.

[xylophone]

11 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

I'd suggest you look at investing in peer-to-peer lending. 3.25% on term investments means you barely have your head above water when inflation and taxes are taken into account. Check out Ratesetter.com.au and TruePillars.com.

Thanks for the tip and actually I have a friend who is a senior executive in a peer-to-peer lending company in NZ, so I might investigate that further.

 

Having said that, I do have quite a large lump sum in a utilities company which pays a good dividend and I've had a 46% increase in the share price, so I'm not in dire straits yet!

 

Add to that the fact that I don't pay any tax (or 2% only) and I'm quite prepared to eat into my capital, which was always my intention, as in the final round up, what I have got and what I earn will see me live to well past 100, not that I really want to.

 

There will be hard times ahead for many I believe, and anyway it's about time I did a bit of belt tightening to try and rein in some of my extravagances!

[Lacessit]

1 minute ago, xylophone said:

Thanks for the tip and actually I have a friend who is a senior executive in a peer-to-peer lending company in NZ, so I might investigate that further.

 

Having said that, I do have quite a large lump sum in a utilities company which pays a good dividend and I've had a 46% increase in the share price, so I'm not in dire straits yet!

 

Add to that the fact that I don't pay any tax (or 2% only) and I'm quite prepared to eat into my capital, which was always my intention, as in the final round up, what I have got and what I earn will see me live to well past 100, not that I really want to.

 

There will be hard times ahead for many I believe, and anyway it's about time I did a bit of belt tightening to try and rein in some of my extravagances!

Shares are in for a rocky ride until the man in the White House leaves the scene, although a 46% buffer is a good one. Just have to sit it out and hope the dividends don't take too much of a haircut.

I do put in a tax return, but I haven't paid any tax for quite a few years and get the refunds on franking credits.

I have some funds in platinum and gold, because governments worldwide are in a race to the bottom with their paper currencies. Not an investment, a hedge.

[QPRFC]

The Australian government (including the previous 10 years) is comparable to Thailand in my opinion, the country is suffering, corrupt and is only going one way!

Glad I got out a few years ago, albeit a few years too late! 

[MarleyMarl]

9 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

I moved here 4 years ago come next month and was getting over 25 baht, according to my calculations that's 1,250,000 baht on $50,000AUD, so that's 250,000 baht out.

 

In real terms I think you could say the AUD has dropped about 20% in the last 3 years or 250,000 baht on my above figure of 1,250,000 which would give you 1 million baht in today's terms as opposed to that your statement, i.e. 33%

 

It's not all doom and gloom, i.e. unless your only income is the pension and if that's the case cutting back one's over indulgence would have to cease until things pick up again in a few years, a fair few years I hesitate to say.

 

If your a stock market investor in the ASX, a small pharmaceutical company I have kept my eye on since a while back returned me a nice earn this morning, although I did sell out a little early, but hey a few thousand (AUD) in the pocket is better than none I say.

 

Oh that company for those with a couple of extra bucks to put away for a rainy day, is MYX or Mayne Pharma, which has a long way to go....to get back up up up, but your own due diligence if your looking to buy in, happy trading ????

 

I moved here 10 years ago when it was $1 = 33 THB, luckily i earn mostly THB these days ???? and i get nice bang for buck exchanging it to AUD/NZD for business ventures over there.

 

 

[madmen]

Why do poster's keep talking about reversals when the Aud is clearly in a downtrend and heading to 15 bht its historical low and could take years to get there and no guarantees it will hold

 

Situation is dire with oz pensions hitting new lows every single month and now nearly

half of the minimum 65k Visa requirements (35k)

 

what Ozzie on a pension alone can afford health insurance on that? none of them can even afford retirement extension and yet keep kidding themselves how amazing their lives are here lol how is that possible?

 

The line has been crossed now and Thailand is no longer has any major advantage compared to oz

 

 

[hatewaitin]

19 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

I moved here 4 years ago come next month and was getting over 25 baht, according to my calculations that's 1,250,000 baht on $50,000AUD, so that's 250,000 baht out.

 

In real terms I think you could say the AUD has dropped about 20% in the last 3 years or 250,000 baht on my above figure of 1,250,000 which would give you 1 million baht in today's terms as opposed to that your statement, i.e. 33%

 

It's not all doom and gloom, i.e. unless your only income is the pension and if that's the case cutting back one's over indulgence would have to cease until things pick up again in a few years, a fair few years I hesitate to say.

 

If your a stock market investor in the ASX, a small pharmaceutical company I have kept my eye on since a while back returned me a nice earn this morning, although I did sell out a little early, but hey a few thousand (AUD) in the pocket is better than none I say.

 

Oh that company for those with a couple of extra bucks to put away for a rainy day, is MYX or Mayne Pharma, which has a long way to go....to get back up up up, but your own due diligence if your looking to buy in, happy trading ????

 

In 2014 was getting 32-33thb to AUD

[Lacessit]

4 hours ago, Mick501 said:

Already pointed out facts to you.  You change topics to conveniently

ignore them, like any good lefty.  Good news is that scoring one out of three on political questions more than qualifies you to lead the green/labor coalition.

 

oil reserves have been as they are for year, but Santos recent discovery will increase them.  Federal govt would have to invoke s51 of the constitution if they were to take control of the Murray darling system.  Something they only do rarely and out of necessity.  Management of that is largely in the hands of COAG.  That should help you educate yourself before further comment again demonstrates your lack of knowledge.

The lefty label is just so convenient when some-one with obvious right-wing credentials from the outset is trying to put a case for stagnation. It's called argument ad hominem. What facts? You are refusing to face them, such as the fact 30% of owner-occupied households in Australia are under mortgage stress. Why do you think the RBA is lowering interest rates? Because the Coalition pursuit of the holy grail of a budget surplus is forcing their hand.

Your oil reserve statement is a deflection. Crude oil is useless until it is refined into useable products such as jet fuel, diesel and petrol, which is Australia's Achilles heel in terms of fuel security. Years of inaction by -you guessed it- Liberal governments. About 50% of Australia's refining capacity has been shut down since 2010. Lack of investment, the mega-refineries offshore are progressively taking over.

The Liberals have zero policy and zero interest in putting aside any of Australia's assets to benefit Australians in times of trouble. Dig it up and ship it out is the mantra.

As I said before, water security in Australia is a mess. Apparently you think exercise of Federal powers to sort it out is a bridge too far for a timorous Federal government. Do nothing rules the day.

You probably don't realise you are being dudded like everyone else. Assuming you are in Thailand, your purchasing power just took a hit as a result of Coalition policy. If you are in Australia, anything imported just became more expensive.

FYI, I was a successful research scientist. Judging by the typos and weak arguments of your posts, I'd say my education level is somewhat better than yours. But stick to the Liberal BS if it makes you feel better.

[Laza 45]

RBA is cutting rates because the government has abandoned responsibility for economic growth

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/03/rba-is-cutting-rates-because-the-government-has-abandoned-responsibility-for-economic-growth?CMP=soc_567&fbclid=IwAR2nUlt1HV7-dP_N-BEfh8712YfcwwDkiI6Uo4vBiELw8_2hKnrgY0QgYqQ

[Mick501]

4 minutes ago, Laza 45 said:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/03/rba-is-cutting-rates-because-the-government-has-abandoned-responsibility-for-economic-growth?CMP=soc_567&fbclid=IwAR2nUlt1HV7-dP_N-BEfh8712YfcwwDkiI6Uo4vBiELw8_2hKnrgY0QgYqQ

Opinion of a lefty journo throwing the toys out of the cot cause they lost.   Economic conditions are not great anywhere in the western world since the GFC.  Indeed, many countries have negative rates on their bonds.  Quote an impartial source if you are trying to make a point.  But I doubt anyone that reads The Guardian is actually aware of impartial sources.

[Lacessit]

6 hours ago, Mick501 said:

Opinion of a lefty journo throwing the toys out of the cot cause they lost.   Economic conditions are not great anywhere in the western world since the GFC.  Indeed, many countries have negative rates on their bonds.  Quote an impartial source if you are trying to make a point.  But I doubt anyone that reads The Guardian is actually aware of impartial sources.

Lefty seems to be a favourite descriptor of yours. I read ABC news and The Age ( Melbourne ). Does that make me a lefty too?

Let me guess - you read The Australian and Fox News.

Edited October 3, 2019 by Lacessit

[Mick501]

1 hour ago, Lacessit said:

Lefty seems to be a favourite descriptor of yours. I read ABC news and The Age ( Melbourne ). Does that make me a lefty too?

Let me guess - you read The Australian and Fox News.

Your failure to understand sensible economic management marks you as a lefty, and yes, your news of choice only gives left opinions.    Not sure how you think returning the budget to surplus is a bad thing.  But you no doubt think there should be millions spent on a royal commission in to my spelling and occasionally lazy use of grammar.

 

theres a quote attributed variously to John Adams and to Churchill.  To the effect, "if you vote right when you're 25 you haven't got a heart.  If you vote left when you're 35 you haven't got a brain."

 

i dont tend tend to subscribe to that view, and think most left voters are either too busy or don't have the inclination to inform themselves on political issues.  I'm sure you were a great scientist and wouldn't have commented in that field about things you didn't understand.

[Mick501]

22 minutes ago, Wongkitlo said:

When Keating was Prime Minister I was paying $130 AUD for a 3 bedroom home in a leafy bayside suburb of Melbourne. Using what happened in the 90's doesn't seem a very convincing argument that the same thing will happen 30 years later.

Sent from my SM-J730F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

It's not my logic.  It's Keatings words at the time.   He stated to the effect that investment had significantly slowed, hence the reversal. But no doubt you know better.

[Wongkitlo]

It's not my logic.  It's Keatings words at the time.   He stated to the effect that investment had significantly slowed, hence the reversal. But no doubt you know better.

Yes but what has that have to do with negative gearing in 2019? The housing market has changed significantly since then.

Sent from my SM-J730F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[Scott]

Off-topic post reported and removed.   Please stay on topic.  

 

[Lacessit]

On 10/3/2019 at 7:09 PM, Mick501 said:

Your failure to understand sensible economic management marks you as a lefty, and yes, your news of choice only gives left opinions.    Not sure how you think returning the budget to surplus is a bad thing. 

A budget surplus means the government is garnering more in taxes than it is spending in services and infrastructure. That's fine in a healthy economy. In an economy teetering on the edge of recession, an ideological commitment to a surplus is lunacy.

These are not opinions, these are facts. Household debt levels in Australia are among the top three in the world. At the same time, federal government debt as a percentage of GDP is 20% - way below most other developed countries.

The RBA is trying to avoid recession with monetary policy. Cutting interest rates. It's being hamstrung by the fiscal policy of the Coalition, in pursuit of the surplus sacred cow.

I think I understand sensible economic management very well, considering the last time I owed any money to anyone was 1974.

[Mick501]

4 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

A budget surplus means the government is garnering more in taxes than it is spending in services and infrastructure. That's fine in a healthy economy. In an economy teetering on the edge of recession, an ideological commitment to a surplus is lunacy.

These are not opinions, these are facts. Household debt levels in Australia are among the top three in the world. At the same time, federal government debt as a percentage of GDP is 20% - way below most other developed countries.

The RBA is trying to avoid recession with monetary policy. Cutting interest rates. It's being hamstrung by the fiscal policy of the Coalition, in pursuit of the surplus sacred cow.

I think I understand sensible economic management very well, considering the last time I owed any money to anyone was 1974.

Then you will understand there is good debt (which can produce future growth) and bad debt (dead money).    Current deficit is around half the GDP thanks to legacy debt from labor thinking the mining boom would last forever.  It has reached a record high level, meaning record high interest payments (bad debt).

 

i am not carte blanche against debt, but at current levels it is exceedingly high, and at some point it has to be paid back.  As you know, I'm on the conservative side and think it's best to get the current debt to controllable levels before undertaking discretionary projects.  You on the other hand, don't even have the self awareness to know that  you are a raging lefty.   Yes, the RBA is trying to stimulate the economy.  You blame government policy.   So it must be easy for you then to show me the list of countries that apply your "sound economic management" and their economy growth is steaming ahead, right?

[Lacessit]

22 minutes ago, Mick501 said:

Then you will understand there is good debt (which can produce future growth) and bad debt (dead money).    Current deficit is around half the GDP thanks to legacy debt from labor thinking the mining boom would last forever.  It has reached a record high level, meaning record high interest payments (bad debt).

 

i am not carte blanche against debt, but at current levels it is exceedingly high, and at some point it has to be paid back.  As you know, I'm on the conservative side and think it's best to get the current debt to controllable levels before undertaking discretionary projects.  You on the other hand, don't even have the self awareness to know that  you are a raging lefty.   Yes, the RBA is trying to stimulate the economy.  You blame government policy.   So it must be easy for you then to show me the list of countries that apply your "sound economic management" and their economy growth is steaming ahead, right?

So, according to your conservative credentials, we must not even think about, for example, increasing the Newstart allowance. Which ignores the fact people with more money will spend more, thus stimulating the economy. You must have all the empathy of a western taipan.

I continue to be amused by your description of me as a raging lefty. Most people who know me think I am highly conservative.

It's not true debt has to be paid back. There have been many times in history when debtors have defaulted.

BTW, I am not responding to any of your questions, because you have not responded to any of mine.

 

Edited October 5, 2019 by Lacessit

[Mick501]

1 hour ago, Lacessit said:

So, according to your conservative credentials, we must not even think about, for example, increasing the Newstart allowance. Which ignores the fact people with more money will spend more, thus stimulating the economy. You must have all the empathy of a western taipan.

I continue to be amused by your description of me as a raging lefty. Most people who know me think I am highly conservative.

It's not true debt has to be paid back. There have been many times in history when debtors have defaulted.

BTW, I am not responding to any of your questions, because you have not responded to any of mine.

 

Calling you a lefty is not meant as offensive.  But it is amusing to me that you dont realise it, since every single policy you have raised and argument you have presented is straight out of the Left playbook.   All it means is that you do have a good heart and your first thought runs to what is the right thing to do.   There is nothing wrong with admitting it and being proud of it, and I certainly respect your right to believe in whatever you feel is right.

 

The difference between right and left is that the right thinks through the practicalities of that, and how to pay for it.  More realists than idealists.

 

fair enough that we don't answer each other questions.   Can't see either one of us really giving a damn about what the other thinks.   Take care mate.

[Lacessit]

1 hour ago, Mick501 said:

Calling you a lefty is not meant as offensive.  But it is amusing to me that you dont realise it, since every single policy you have raised and argument you have presented is straight out of the Left playbook.   All it means is that you do have a good heart and your first thought runs to what is the right thing to do.   There is nothing wrong with admitting it and being proud of it, and I certainly respect your right to believe in whatever you feel is right.

 

The difference between right and left is that the right thinks through the practicalities of that, and how to pay for it.  More realists than idealists.

 

fair enough that we don't answer each other questions.   Can't see either one of us really giving a damn about what the other thinks.   Take care mate.

It is somewhat ironic that as savers, we are both being sacrificed by current monetary and fiscal policy to the benefit of borrowers. You take care too.