THai baht stronger and stronger

[DaRoadrunner]

On 10/5/2019 at 2:39 PM, ravip said:

Incredible that some find it difficult to comprehend this...

Is it that only 'my home' country's economy should flourish?

It is not flourishing, it is inflation, and one day the bubble is going to pop big time.

[beechguy]

3 hours ago, GalaxyMan said:

Plain eat up with dumb.

Why? I haven't had any problems since Trump has been in office. Plenty of contract and job offers, business is good, taxes are better, more affordable health insurance is available, unemployment down to 3.5%, GDP up. Seems to me the only people having problems, are the ones with some kind of phobia.

[gamini]

On 10/5/2019 at 2:30 PM, FritsSikkink said:

It is called Thailand's economy is doing good.

In the UK, it is going badly. Possible recession soon. No deal brexit may see the Pound go down to about 29 baht

[GalaxyMan]

9 hours ago, beechguy said:

Why? I haven't had any problems since Trump has been in office. Plenty of contract and job offers, business is good, taxes are better, more affordable health insurance is available, unemployment down to 3.5%, GDP up. Seems to me the only people having problems, are the ones with some kind of phobia.

If you consider visceral disgust and loathing for a pathological liar, adulterer, and morally bankrupt scum as the President of the country a phobia, then I've got a phobia. ????

[toho]

21 hours ago, villerupt said:

don't forget the question please ...

anybody to explain clearly, without too much technical details, why the THB is so strong?

thx

To address some reasons:

1: In Asia economic growth, normally more demand = more money, stronger currency

2: UK Brexit soap opera: companies leave UK, stockholders sell shares; too many risks give downward pressure on LSTG

3: Europe continent: Germany in recession, no economic growth. European Central Bank with south european persons like Draghi and Lagarde printing billions of EUR; ECB promotes low interest rate hoping that consumers will spend their savings (which they do not always do); pension funds have to cut pensions; savings are taxed but get no interest. ECB promotes inflation. Currency war with USA and China in order to stay competitive. 

Europe is a financial mess. There should be 2 categories: currency for northern europe and one for the partying south european countries. There has Always been a difference in mentality between these two. 

[elgenon]

On 10/5/2019 at 1:55 AM, Puchaiyank said:

Thailand's economy is doing so well as for the past few years the government has taken strong positions on corruption, human trafficking, drug smuggling, slave labor, and illegal immigrants...and that is just in the ex-pat community...????

They pump money into the economy through infrastructure projects.

[GalaxyMan]

34 minutes ago, elgenon said:

They pump money into the economy through infrastructure projects.

Which only help/enrich a small handful of people.

[elgenon]

5 minutes ago, GalaxyMan said:

Which only help/enrich a small handful of people.

The government just wants the GDP number to look good.

[GalaxyMan]

7 minutes ago, elgenon said:

The government just wants the GDP number to look good.

They make up all the other numbers out of thin air, why not the GDP, too? ????

[kevinmartyn]

Some people have no brain! Having a strong baht is NOT good for Thai companies involved in exporting goods. (Ask any Thai business!.) Thailand is once again heading towards a 2008 crash!

 

It really is not flourishing! No matter what the "pipe dream" is!

[BestB]

11 minutes ago, kevinmartyn said:

Some people have no brain! Having a strong baht is NOT good for Thai companies involved in exporting goods. (Ask any Thai business!.) Thailand is once again heading towards a 2008 crash!

 

It really is not flourishing! No matter what the "pipe dream" is!

There was a crash in 2008? 

[Misab]

Why is it happening? Because when a country's currency rise so much that it hurts the country's economy the central bank will normally interfere and lower interest rate. This happened here a few months ago but with only 0.25 point which did not have any effect at all. 

Let's look at new Zealand at the same time they lower their interest rate by 0.50 point, and a month later they lover it by 0.75% and let the market know if it wasn't enough it would lower similar again next month. 

That's the kind of acting there is necessary to get the currency under control.

 

[wolf81]

On 10/6/2019 at 10:58 AM, villerupt said:

don't forget the question please ...

anybody to explain clearly, without too much technical details, why the THB is so strong?

thx

Perhaps the question should be why the Euro is so weak. My guess is that the ECB policy of printing money (Quantitative Easing) isn't helping. 

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/isabeltogoh/2019/09/12/what-to-expect-from-the-european-central-bank-decision/#1cf536123df9

[FatVern]

This was just in the Bangkok Post:

 

”

Once best known for crashing and sparking the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the baht is today seen as a haven by global investors. A trade surplus and annual foreign tourism receipts exceeding $60 billion underpin its resilience.

 

The currency has appreciated more than 6% against the dollar so far in 2019, the best performer in a basket of Asian economies tracked by Bloomberg.

 

It’s likely to stay resilient, said Masakatsu Fukaya, an emerging-market currency trader at Mizuho Bank in Tokyo. There could be more upward pressure if firms relocate production to Thailand to skirt US tariffs on China-made products, according to Fukaya.”

[Skeptic7]

Off the backs of near zero labor costs Kindomwide, yet Western prices near everywhere and millions of foreign currency pouring in monthly for decades...ANY economy and currency would be going thru da roof. ????

[beechguy]

13 hours ago, GalaxyMan said:

If you consider visceral disgust and loathing for a pathological liar, adulterer, and morally bankrupt scum as the President of the country a phobia, then I've got a phobia. ????

Then that's your problem, isn't it.

[madmen]

5 hours ago, FatVern said:

This was just in the Bangkok Post:

 

”

Once best known for crashing and sparking the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the baht is today seen as a haven by global investors. A trade surplus and annual foreign tourism receipts exceeding $60 billion underpin its resilience.

 

The currency has appreciated more than 6% against the dollar so far in 2019, the best performer in a basket of Asian economies tracked by Bloomberg.

 

It’s likely to stay resilient, said Masakatsu Fukaya, an emerging-market currency trader at Mizuho Bank in Tokyo. There could be more upward pressure if firms relocate production to Thailand to skirt US tariffs on China-made products, according to Fukaya.”

What does he know? did he even consult our TV well connected bar stool boys regarding men in black propping up the baht? nope didn't think so

[RocketDog]

On 10/6/2019 at 10:58 AM, villerupt said:

don't forget the question please ...

anybody to explain clearly, without too much technical details, why the THB is so strong?

thx

I'm going with the theory that rich Thai people are moving money to foreign banks and want 'more bang for their baht'.

 

I personally don't think the Thai economy has grown enough stronger or faster to call for such a strong baht.

 

But admittedly I do have a dog in this fight especially with the Orange Man putting the US dollar in the sh*t house more every day.

[Trentham]

2 minutes ago, RocketDog said:

I'm going with the theory that rich Thai people are moving money to foreign banks and want 'more bang for their baht'.

 

I personally don't think the Thai economy has grown enough stronger or faster to call for such a strong baht.

 

But admittedly I do have a dog in this fight especially with the Orange Man putting the US dollar in the sh*t house more every day.

I wonder if one of the richest Thais who mostly lives in Europe is moving his billions. I am not talking about Thaksin.

[GalaxyMan]

3 hours ago, Trentham said:

I wonder if one of the richest Thais who mostly lives in Europe is moving his billions. I am not talking about Thaksin.

I wonder how much the ruling 1% actually keeps in Thailand. They didn't get that filthy rich being stupid.

[parafareno]

damn this is so crazy....i dated lots of thai girls like 5 years ago when i was last in thailand...they all earned measley 300 usd....and now a bkk chick earns like 1100 usd?

that is ridiculous.........was she earing before like that or all all workers earning 1000 usd per month now?

[sanemax]

6 minutes ago, parafareno said:

damn this is so crazy....i dated lots of thai girls like 5 years ago when i was last in thailand...they all earned measley 300 usd....and now a bkk chick earns like 1100 usd?

that is ridiculous.........was she earing before like that or all all workers earning 1000 usd per month now?

Sorry, are you asking what the average wage in Bangkok is ?

And when you say "like five years ago"  , do you mean five years ago, or like five years ago, which is four/ six years ago ?

[parafareno]

4 minutes ago, sanemax said:

Sorry, are you asking what the average wage in Bangkok is ?

And when you say "like five years ago"  , do you mean five years ago, or like five years ago, which is four/ six years ago ?

6 years ago to be exact when i left thailand.....

[beechguy]

18 hours ago, RocketDog said:

I'm going with the theory that rich Thai people are moving money to foreign banks and want 'more bang for their baht'.

 

I personally don't think the Thai economy has grown enough stronger or faster to call for such a strong baht.

 

But admittedly I do have a dog in this fight especially with the Orange Man putting the US dollar in the sh*t house more every day.

More in the s**t house like this? https://www.dailyfx.com/us-dollar-index 

Or https://www.dailyfx.com/gbp-usd  or https://www.dailyfx.com/eur-usd

 

One thing I've learned, is not to pay attention to the ignorant on here.

[RocketDog]

2 hours ago, beechguy said:

More in the s**t house like this? https://www.dailyfx.com/us-dollar-index 

Or https://www.dailyfx.com/gbp-usd  or https://www.dailyfx.com/eur-usd

 

One thing I've learned, is not to pay attention to the ignorant on here.

Low interest rates devalue the dollar and raise inflation, causing cost of all goods to rise. Tariff wars raise prices on imported goods for consumers and decrease exports.

 

One thing I've learned is to not  base my view of an economy on government statistics. What you pay for the goods /services you receive is where your wallet feels the pain, and the pain is increasing.

[beechguy]

13 hours ago, RocketDog said:

Low interest rates devalue the dollar and raise inflation, causing cost of all goods to rise. Tariff wars raise prices on imported goods for consumers and decrease exports.

 

One thing I've learned is to not  base my view of an economy on government statistics. What you pay for the goods /services you receive is where your wallet feels the pain, and the pain is increasing.

I guess you can't read, those were market rates for the dollar index, and versus other currencies, not set by a government. The low interest rates aren't only in the U.S. look at Europe. The trade war should have happened years ago, especially when the Chinese were shipping inferior products, and stealing intellectual property. I would agree that the inflation rate isn't very accurate, when set by a government department, but that was happening over the decades, not the past three years. Again, excuse me for not accepting the ignorance on here.

[HeyHeyHey]

On 10/9/2019 at 3:02 AM, parafareno said:

damn this is so crazy....i dated lots of thai girls like 5 years ago when i was last in thailand...they all earned measley 300 usd....and now a bkk chick earns like 1100 usd?

that is ridiculous.........was she earing before like that or all all workers earning 1000 usd per month now?

Thai visa warriors have an alternative reality

 

Just because a gogo dancers pulls $3k a month doesn't mean others do

 

My gf's friend is in her 20's, uni education, speaks okay English, works for big company and gets 13,000 THB a month in Bangkok

[Bruce404]

On 10/6/2019 at 3:02 PM, Bruce404 said:

    I think Isaan Sailor makes a valid point: that appreciation of the Baht results from intentional human intervention by the central bank, implying it is not a result postulated by others on this forum to be a consequence of natural ups and downs of global markets, political events, trade wars, and other causes.  (Although I do not agree with all the reasons he suggests are motivating the policy.)

 

    I am no economist, although I read the magazine regularly, including its essays on global finance and currencies. With that disclaimer, it seems to me the slow but steady increase in value of the Baht in relation to other currencies (e.g., US$, Euro €, and Pound Sterling £) over many, many months must result from national policy set at the highest levels, for reasons that remain inscrutable.

 

    The appreciating Baht certainly hurts several major sectors of the Thai economy:   Manufacturing and agricultural exports become dearer in foreign markets.  The higher prices foreign tourists must pay to visit here make other countries more competitive to attract their holidays.  Imports become less costly, diverting sales by domestic manufacturers that serve primarily the domestic market.

 

    In theory, the only winners are those who earn income outside these sectors, or have accumulated assets they want to be worth more when moved overseas.

 

     Another explanation for the policy might be fear of being accused of currency manipulation by Trump, and thus put on his *hit list, as he has China.  But actual currency manipulators usually try to keep their currency undervalued in order to promote their own export industries, not overvalued as is happening in Thailand.  

 

     Certainly among the readership of ThaiVisa there must be accomplished PhD economists with expertise in the domains of international finance, exchange rates, central banking and monetary policy.  Hopefully, some of them will weigh in, anonymously, to educate us on why they think this is happening. (We need a Thai Paul Krugman.)

 

    I must retract, with apologies, some uninformed opinions posted on this thread on Sunday, 6 October, at 15:02 ICT.

    Then, I cast aspersions on the central bank that the slow but steady rise in the Baht relative to other currencies was the effect of its intentional monetary policy, rather than a consequence of market forces and secular trends.

    Now, as stated by a few knowledgeable others on this thread (and ignoring the ignoramuses), I am convinced that it is indeed market forces driving the Baht’s appreciation, by the demand by investors, speculators, those seeking safer havens for their assets, whoever, to buy the Baht in exchange for whatever currency they have. 

    As the trends in recent months have shown, those investors would now have made some profit upon converting their Baht to another currency which has lost value relative to the Baht (US Dollars, Euros, Pound Sterling) during the period.

    If anything, the Bank of Thailand has probably been doing as best it can to keep the Baht from appreciating even faster than it has, by applying whatever methods it has in its monetary toolkit.

    A brief explanation of this is in this Bloomberg news blurb of a World Bank economist commenting on the Baht:

Bank of Thailand Has Limited Scope to Curb Baht, World Bank Says (Bloomberg)

by Siraphob Thanthong-Knight

The Bank of Thailand has limited scope to tackle baht strength but the currency’s climb is a sign of investor confidence in the country’s economic fundamentals, according to the World Bank.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-08/bank-of-thailand-has-limited-scope-to-curb-baht-world-bank-says

 

Edited October 10, 2019 by Bruce404