Now UK coming out of EU with no deal. what is going to happen to sterling??

[john west]

Hi and  the multi million question.
What is going to happen to Sterling after the UK it seems crashing out of the EU without a deal and most of us have not got a pot of gold.
IMHO I think against the very strong Baht it will weaken further, but who knows and no expert and us ex pats are really struggling and yes indeed the Thais are feeling the pinch as well, well everyone is to be frank.
Even the so called measures by the Treasury of Thailand the other week has it seems no effect whatsoever.
Worrying times for those on frozen state pensions and the very poor exchange rates.
What are your views?
 

[anterian]

I saw this coming several years ago so shifted half of the money I had on deposit in the UK to Thailand. This means that I currently have enough Baht in the bank here to survive for several years, by which time the Pound will have recovered or I will be dead.

[petermik]

I asked this same question to a fortune teller in soi Bukhaow (Pattaya) market the other day and she said (pigeon english of course) initially it will sink to 35 baht but late december will bounce to 40 and continue rising during the course of next year to a high of 54.......with this news I happily gave her a 20 baht tip

[Jip99]

5 minutes ago, anterian said:

I saw this coming several years ago so shifted half of the money I had on deposit in the UK to Thailand. This means that I currently have enough Baht in the bank here to survive for several years, by which time the Pound will have recovered or I will be dead.

 

I saw a different opportunity..

 

I now only transfer the minimum amount I need each month from Sterling to Baht.

 

I have taken the opportunity to spend more time visiting the UK - and Europe.

[BritManToo]

22 minutes ago, john west said:

What are your views?

I don't think it will happen.

There'll be another extension/delay.

[Jip99]

Just now, petermik said:

I asked this same question to a fortune teller in soi Bukhaow (Pattaya) market the other day and she said (pigeon english of course) initially it will sink to 35 baht but late december will bounce to 40 and continue rising during the course of next year to a high of 54.......with this news I happily gave her a 20 baht tip

 

 

 

If she told me that, she would have been rewarded with a 100 Baht note... ????

[Golden Triangle]

I would say "Stand by for a severe rogering up the rear end financially" we have been let down big style by our so called politicians, they have totally ignored the wishes of the majority - and that ladies and gents comes from someone who voted to remain, the reason I voted that way is because I knew the damage that leaving could / would cause.

[petermik]

7 hours ago, Golden Triangle said:

I would say "Stand by for a severe rogering up the rear end financially" we have been let down big style by our so called politicians, they have totally ignored the wishes of the majority - and that ladies and gents comes from someone who voted to remain, the reason I voted that way is because I knew the damage that leaving could / would cause.

Any remainers unhappy about LOSING the vote can move to one of the countries still in the EU after we leave.....enjoy

[Baerboxer]

No one can really predict. But likely the market has already priced much of this in. As such, initially there will be a drop but not massive and then a bounce back. How long that will take to bounce back, no one knows. But probably reasonably quickly.

 

The pound has been between 1.20 and 1.25 USD. Expect that range to narrow but doubt it will go below 1.20; it it does, not for too much time. 

 

No one knows but I guesstimate is no deal will mean 1.20-1.22 when things settle. After that who knows!

[Golden Triangle]

24 minutes ago, petermik said:

Any remainers unhappy about LOSING the vote can move to one of the countries still in the EU after we leave.....enjoy

I didn't say anything about being unhappy with the result of the referendum, I stated my position so you could see and understand my point of view, am I unhappy with the way it has been handled and our country being made the laughing stock of the world by our totally inept and ineffective politicians ?? The answer is a very big YES, so please don't try to label me us a <deleted>. R e m o a n e r. I have no idea why that word was deleted

Edited October 9, 2019 by Golden Triangle

[thonglorjimmy]

28 minutes ago, petermik said:

Any remainers unhappy about LOSING the vote can move to one of the countries still in the EU after we leave.....enjoy

And you're offering that advice from where exactly, the UK? - no I thought not.
I think we'll all eventually have to accept that there are no winners in this whole sorry episode.  

[gamini]

1 hour ago, petermik said:

I asked this same question to a fortune teller in soi Bukhaow (Pattaya) market the other day and she said (pigeon english of course) initially it will sink to 35 baht but late december will bounce to 40 and continue rising during the course of next year to a high of 54.......with this news I happily gave her a 20 baht tip

ha ha. No deal will bring the pound down to 29 Bt. It won't bounce back

[Kaopad999]

1 hour ago, BritManToo said:

I don't think it will happen.

There'll be another extension/delay.

Well, the longer the delays, the worse it will be. More time sitting on the fence = more uncertainty, and we should all know that markets don't like uncertainty. 

Deal or no deal, they just need to get on with it now and make a decision.  

[Kaopad999]

17 minutes ago, gamini said:

ha ha. No deal will bring the pound down to 29 Bt. It won't bounce back

You do not know for sure, because you are not a qualified fortune teller like the lady at the market on soi Bukhaow. So, hush hush! 

Edited October 9, 2019 by Kaopad999

[mstevens]

The pound will come back at some point.....the thing is, will it be in 3 months time, 3 years....or longer. 35 baht to the pound by year's end is not out of the question.

[yodsak]

  From Pound Sterling Live  8th Oct.  

 

[Estrada]

1 hour ago, petermik said:

Any remainers unhappy about LOSING the vote can move to one of the countries still in the EU after we leave.....enjoy

iT was just announced that there is going to be an extension to summer next year to allow time for a referendum when those remainers who were not allowed to vote in the last referendum (as the government did not give us voting papers), will be able to vote. Hopefully the Russians will stop brainwashing leavers through social media and the leave campaign will stop using Cambridge Analytica to illegally sway the vote by targeting voters with fake news. 73% did not vote to leave. The law on referendums requires at 55% majority which was not acheived by leave in the last referendum.

Edited October 9, 2019 by Estrada

[allanos]

Boris Johnson was a Remainer, or, at best, a fence-sitter.  I can only applaud him for attempting to carry out the (democratic) wishes of the majority of the people who voted "Leave" in the 2016 Referendum. Britain is still, after all, and despite the likes of Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, et al, a Democracy.

 

British politicians attempting to frustrate Brexit do so for their own narrow, and selfish, self-interests; they do not have the wishes of the British people, or the country, at heart, in spite of their protestations to the contrary.

 

Unfortunately, the value of the pound sterling is being held hostage to these same seditious politicians, both from the left and the right, who are trying to carve out some vainglorious niche for themselves within the political spectrum, and damn the rest! Take a look at the MP's who are playing musical chairs, unheeding of their constituents, holding on to their seats at all costs.  It is to be hoped that a coming General Election will give them their comeuppance.

 

Currently, the resulting uncertainty is the root cause of sterling's present value.  However, do the venal politicians care; not at all? And traders are having a field-day, given the fluctuations of the pound on the currency markets.

[Ketyo]

My step father is English. He left school aged 12 without any qualifications and worked in manual labouring jobs all his life. He has no training in economics and doesn't understand it.  He voted to leave because he wanted to take back control and didn't like all them foreigners coming in.

 

He has said that there may be a few bumps in the road after a no-deal Brexit but after that the pound will fly. He has said that Britain will be able to make trade deals with countries like Australia and New Zealand just as in colonial times, and those golden days will come back.

 

I don't know whether to listen to this old dock worker or the UK institute of fiscal studies, which says that the pound would go to near parity with the dollar.

 

 

Edited October 9, 2019 by Ketyo

[Samuel Smith]

1 hour ago, petermik said:

Any remainers unhappy about LOSING the vote can move to one of the countries still in the EU after we leave.....enjoy

I don't think that will be possible after hard brexit.  

 

Also British tourists to Europe might need visas, International DLs, health insurance etc.  Just like in the "good old days" ????

[AussieBob18]

10 minutes ago, allanos said:

Boris Johnson was a Remainer, or, at best, a fence-sitter.  I can only applaud him for attempting to carry out the (democratic) wishes of the majority of the people who voted "Leave" in the 2016 Referendum. Britain is still, after all, and despite the likes of Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, et al, a Democracy.

 

British politicians attempting to frustrate Brexit do so for their own narrow, and selfish, self-interests; they do not have the wishes of the British people, or the country, at heart, in spite of their protestations to the contrary.

 

Unfortunately, the value of the pound sterling is being held hostage to these same seditious politicians, both from the left and the right, who are trying to carve out some vainglorious niche for themselves within the political spectrum, and damn the rest! Take a look at the MP's who are playing musical chairs, unheeding of their constituents, holding on to their seats at all costs.  It is to be hoped that a coming General Election will give them their comeuppance.

 

Currently, the resulting uncertainty is the root cause of sterling's present value.  However, do the venal politicians care; not at all? And traders are having a field-day, given the fluctuations of the pound on the currency markets.

100% correct - all of it - but especially the politicians.

The best thing that could happen for the pound would be an election.

Then the People will decide as the main election issue will be Brexit.

Labor has refused to allow an election - BJ is going to force one or he will enact the no-deal exit and take it to the Courts.  If BJ is smart enough, if the no-deal is forced through, he should cancel UK's acceptance of the European Courts and demand a renogiation of the terms and conditions.  

But the Pound will definitely go higher again after UK leaves the EU - when is the issue and I predict within 6 months.

 

 

 

 

[Kinnock]

The UK Government has a useful Brexit site where you can subscribe for their daily business updates on implications and preparations.

 

One article from November 2018 is an assessment of the economic impacts - they provide several scenarios, none of them show a positive impact.

 

It is inevitable that the pound will fall further.  My guess is 30 THB to the Pound from exit for next 5+ years then a very slow recovery.

 

No deal means additional costs of £billions on any businesses that trade with Europe, which is the UK's biggest trading partner.  This is not scare-mongering, it is an inevitable result of the additional taxation processes, and the estimated costs of these extra burdens are detailed in the UK Gov risk assessment reports. 

 

I do believe that in the longer term the UK will be better out of the EU, and that the remains of EU post-Brexit will eventually fold due to its inability to be globally competitive, but none of us TV posters will still be around to see the benefits.

 

Edited October 9, 2019 by Kinnock

[whitemouse]

UK won't be crashing out of EU, another extension will be agreed upon,  until June 2020. And then another, and another..

 

There is no solution to Northern Ireland border.

[Enoon]

3 hours ago, BritManToo said:

I don't think it will happen.

There'll be another extension/delay.

 

'twill be a hoot.

 

Edited October 9, 2019 by Enoon

[AlexRich]

There’s quite a bit of confidence from the Leavers on here that you’ll get a short period where GBP drops before bouncing back. After the referendum essentially nothing changed, the UK was still in the EU ... sentiment was enough to send GBP crashing, and there has been little recovery. After a no deal this sheet gets real, you are out of the EU, with major economic disruptions and a different trading situation. Different and worse. You’ll all soon understand what no deal actually entails. It won’t be pretty.

[a10ams]

As long as Glasgow Rangers win the league, everything else is immaterial. ????????

[sanemax]

17 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

There’s quite a bit of confidence from the Leavers on here that you’ll get a short period where GBP drops before bouncing back. After the referendum essentially nothing changed, the UK was still in the EU ... sentiment was enough to send GBP crashing, and there has been little recovery. After a no deal this sheet gets real, you are out of the EU, with major economic disruptions and a different trading situation. Different and worse. You’ll all soon understand what no deal actually entails. It won’t be pretty.

Some economists have the opinion that the current weak Pound is due the markets factoring in the effects of Brexit and no further fall will happen, due to all the falls have  already happened .

   The only way is up for the Pound ...........................not that it bothers UK residents hardly at all  

[hugh2121]

2 hours ago, petermik said:

Any remainers unhappy about LOSING the vote can move to one of the countries still in the EU after we leave.....enjoy

At the coming general election, Conservatives will NOT have a majority and the balance of power will likely be held by the LibDems. This will result in, at least, a new referendum in which a huge majority will vote to Remain OR outright revocation of article 50. Either way we Remain and the pound will make a huge sigh of relief and recover a lot of lost ground. Maybe the fortune teller is switched on to UK politics.

[nickmondo]

I dont know where the OP gets his info.

The UK will not leave without a deal.

There will be an extension.

The lunatic known as Boris will lose his job when Parliament submit the vote of no confidence.

There will be an election, with a hung parliament, no majority.

There will be a second referendum, and Brexit will be cancelled.  I hope.

If not cancelled, there will be more extensions until a deal is agreed.

[nickmondo]

2 minutes ago, hugh2121 said:

At the coming general election, Conservatives will NOT have a majority and the balance of power will likely be held by the LibDems. This will result in, at least, a new referendum in which a huge majority will vote to Remain OR outright revocation of article 50. Either way we Remain and the pound will make a huge sigh of relief and recover a lot of lost ground. Maybe the fortune teller is switched on to UK politics.

agreed