Thai baht is likely to weaken, central bank deputy governor says

[GalaxyMan]

'Likely', just like the government is 'likely' to tell the truth one day about something.

[tlandtday]

Gee do you think it might actually have something to do with money laundering from guess which country?

[Isaan sailor]

35 minutes ago, potless said:

I hope it doesnt crash. Thais lose their income, debts to the banks dont get repaid, banks get in trouble. I have money in the bank. Ouch. Thoughts anyone?

Let it burn.

[saengd]

59 minutes ago, kingdong said:

75 -£1 sounds better

FOREX markets are quoting GBP at 42 for April, that should give you some clues.

[zaZa9]

Reduce the outrageous  import duties by half for 1 year and watch the baht 'settle' as the pent up demand for overseas products sees baht converted to $US and spent off shore.

[potless]

2 minutes ago, saengd said:

FOREX markets are quoting GBP at 42 for April, that should give you some clues.

Yes, I looked at a site yesterday that showed that. What I didnt like was their predictions for the next several years. Maybe the deputy governor used those predictions prior to his ultra vague statement.

[kiwikeith]

3 minutes ago, zaZa9 said:

Reduce the outrageous  import duties by half for 1 year and watch the baht 'settle' as the pent up demand for overseas products sees baht converted to $US and spent off shore.

exporters, will not take a hiding for to long, that is true worldwide, the hiso have cleaned up and now the currency has to correct, when the flag carrier-- Thai airways is going down the gurgler then something has to happen

If the currency does not correct then we might see a change of leaders again.

[saengd]

1 minute ago, potless said:

Yes, I looked at a site yesterday that showed that. What I didnt like was their predictions for the next several years. Maybe the deputy governor used those predictions prior to his ultra vague statement.

Yet that same site three weeks ago showed the April rate at 35, markets are beginning to bet that the Tories will win the election so expect those numbers to get better by the day, unless it looks like they won't win, in which case, tin hats and gas masks all round.

[racket]

If it’s 32.50 against the dollar I’m happy... but used to average about 34-35 baht. 

[Snow Leopard]

16 hours ago, Brigand said:

A mix of both, but the pound could well go up a noticeable amount after the election result if there is a Tory majority. A hung parliament or a Labour coalition will send it tumbling again. Once there is some certainty in the UK for the markets to be relaxed about and the baht starts to go where it belongs then the pound might well head back towards what it's really worth ... which is about 50-55 baht.  

I think Thailand is starting to feel the effects of a strong Baht. For national pride every Thai puffs out their chest. But an economy based on exports and tourism a strong Baht is disastrous. 

[potless]

5 minutes ago, saengd said:

Yet that same site three weeks ago showed the April rate at 35, markets are beginning to bet that the Tories will win the election so expect those numbers to get better by the day, unless it looks like they won't win, in which case, tin hats and gas masks all round.

With respect, I think that may have been a prediction for the Euro.

[BestB]

Baht does not need to weaken to help thai economy but needs to crash. All major currencies lost at least 30% against baht.  1-2% weakening is not going to rock the boat . But now to bring back buyers thailand not only needs weaker currency but also beat competitor prices 

[saengd]

9 minutes ago, potless said:

With respect, I think that may have been a prediction for the Euro.

With respect it was a prediction for GBP/THB where the longer range forecast was nearing 32.

[ivor bigun]

I was just having the car washed and a woman there started chatting ,we got around to the economy ,and she remarked how bad the govt was ,how the baht was overvalued and exports are going down , all ordinary Thais are not dumb.

[cheshiremusicman]

7 hours ago, MaxYakov said:

And HERE is the X-Rates USD graph showing around 30.30 on December 4th. Where can I get 30.30/USD? I can't get that at Bangkok Bank, that's for sure (because their profit/cut on the transaction).

 

Why not try 'TransferWise', they give exceptional rates and VERY quick transfers. The last time I used them (a few weeks ago) I received my money (in Thai Baht) in less than 24 hours, with a guaranteed rate for 24 hours, plus I got an apology for the DELAY in the transfer time - amazing service! 

[Grumpy John]

4 minutes ago, ivor bigun said:

I was just having the car washed and a woman there started chatting ,we got around to the economy ,and she remarked how bad the govt was ,how the baht was overvalued and exports are going down , all ordinary Thais are not dumb.

Don't worry to much, Thai's North and South are not happy with Prayut or the way the Political system works.  There are some rumblings of late.  My guess is it's only a matter of time before the dislike and resentment boil over again. 

[billd766]

14 hours ago, saengd said:

There is no GBP/THB pair per se, GBP/THB is calculated via GBP/USD....look at a five or ten year chart of GBP/THB and then the same period for GBP/USD. 

Really? So when I check TW exchange rates every day except Sunday and I log in GBP and THB I am not really getting what I am searching for.

[ouredd]

Yes the Thai baht is determined by the pound -dollar exchange rate.Always has been

[saengd]

16 minutes ago, billd766 said:

Really? So when I check TW exchange rates every day except Sunday and I log in GBP and THB I am not really getting what I am searching for.

There is no direct relationship between GBP and THB, the value of it is calculated from GBP/USD. Yes of course a rate for GBP/THB exists, the point is where that rate is derived from. There is almost nothing of significance that could happen in the Thai economy that would cause the value of THB to move against GBP without it also moving against USD first. Ditto there is nothing in the UK economy that could directly influence the value of THB without first influencing its position against USD. BUT, if the value of USD were to change, that would influence the value of THB against USD, and its value against GBP.

 

Remember, BOT operates a managed floating peg against USD, unless that peg is removed and THB allowed to float freely its value will always be determined by USD. GBP and USD on the otherhand are at the mercy of markets.

Edited December 5, 2019 by saengd

[JonnyF]

Interesting. The start of a slide?

 

Bangkok Bank normally gives me a conversion rate for the day at 9am (for transferring Thai Baht to a UK account). Today, they still haven't announced the rate. I haven't seen that since the days after the Brexit result.

 

39.80 now. Sliding every day from 39.02 on Sunday. Not dramatic, but nearly 1% in 4 days. I'm expecting quite a shift if the Tories get a majority next week. 

 

[saengd]

2 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Interesting. The start of a slide?

 

Bangkok Bank normally gives me a conversion rate for the day at 9am (for transferring Thai Baht to a UK account). Today, they still haven't announced the rate. I haven't seen that since the days after the Brexit result.

 

39.80 now. Sliding every day from 39.02 on Sunday. Not dramatic, but nearly 1% in 4 days. I'm expecting quite a shift if the Tories get a majority next week. 

 

No, the markets are betting the Tories will win the election so GBP is strengthening against USD, as a result GBP/THB is getting stronger. 

[Jack P]

Either the central bank devalues the currency by additional currency generation or it doesn’t. If it does not devalue then the baht remains a good buy for currency speculators.

[SuwadeeS]

Maybe the rich elite has enough exchanged Thai Baht into Euro and Dollar.

So, now can weaken the Thai Baht and they exchange back to make a lot of profit.

 

Would make logical sense.

[saengd]

2 minutes ago, Jack P said:

Either the central bank devalues the currency by additional currency generation or it doesn’t. If it does not devalue then the baht remains a good buy for currency speculators.

The Baht is a restricted currency, it is not fully convertible, banks outside of Thailand are limited as to how much THB they can hold and the Baht cannot be freely exported. Because of those things, BOT could increase the money in circulation with fear of any drop in its value.

 

Also, I think if the central bank were to devalue THB without first removing the floating peg, that would cause foreign investors to pour money into Thailand because that move alone would not have removed value from the Baht, it would only have increased the number of baht per Dollar/Pound.

[ross163103]

16 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

ready to take action against any rapid gains, either through intervention or additional steps, Mathee said.

They said they could keep it at 36-1 USD a few years back....didn't happen, not much faith in these people being able to do anything with the baht, it's out of their hands.

[Percy P]

17 hours ago, Brigand said:

A mix of both, but the pound could well go up a noticeable amount after the election result if there is a Tory majority. A hung parliament or a Labour coalition will send it tumbling again. Once there is some certainty in the UK for the markets to be relaxed about and the baht starts to go where it belongs then the pound might well head back towards what it's really worth ... which is about 50-55 baht.  

Correct.

[CH1961]

17 hours ago, Brigand said:

the pound might well head back towards what it's really worth ... which is about 50-55 baht. 

You are kidding, are you? 

Proud UK was yesterday, now England is a unimportant clown in the EC. 

You know ... leave the EC ... stay ... leave later ... vote again ????

[Percy P]

18 hours ago, brokenbone said:

take your time, im in no rush to get my moneys worth

Agree, take your time and hurry up.

[PGSan]

First, many apologies for introducing a little intellectual rigour(/rigor into this discussion!

 

An economist writes:

 

If, as claimed by some, the value of all currencies (other than the USF itself) is determined purely by its rate against the US dollar, how can we ever know that “the value of USD has changed”?

[As in the following quote:

     ‘if the value of USD were to change”]

 

The USD/USD rate is always exactly 1.00, it never changes.  Thus, by the above argument “the value of the USD” can never change.

 

Or is there a flaw in my reasoning?

[saengd]

5 minutes ago, PGSan said:

First, many apologies for introducing a little intellectual rigour(/rigor into this discussion!

 

An economist writes:

 

If, as claimed by some, the value of all currencies (other than the USF itself) is determined purely by its rate against the US dollar, how can we ever know that “the value of USD has changed”?

[As in the following quote:

     ‘if the value of USD were to change”]

 

The USD/USD rate is always exactly 1.00, it never changes.  Thus, by the above argument “the value of the USD” can never change.

 

Or is there a flaw in my reasoning?

Yes, just a very large one......the Dollar Index. The value of USD is not always stable at 100, it's value varies based on a number of factors, prior to 2014 it was regularly at 79 or lower.

 

https://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/dollarindexspot

 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index