If all expats left: Little impact on Thai economy

[Felt 35]

3 hours ago, saengd said:

Oooooo, superiority complex, ugly!

????Why, in most of the world you can be assured that what immigrants cost a state, education, health care etc.,.  are calculated now and then against the benefits immigrants bring in i.e. contribution to labor-market and more in taxes. Of course and as expat retiree in Thailand we dont contribute to the labor market but if Thailand had a well designed transparent  tax system we would most likely outweigh the burden we eventually are for health care.????

[BRUFC]

2 hours ago, Matzzon said:

Weakened in water????? Can you please give me some of that you are on.

 

 

You've asked politely so he may give you some. Be sure to dilute it though.

[sucit]

I think what would happen is rich resort owners would go out of business. A lot of the tourist transport boats and taxis would close. In short, a relatively small amount of people would suffer. 

 

I think Thai people would love it, at least the ones not directly tied to the industry, which is the vast majority. The beaches and parks would clean up. Places like Pattaya and Soi Cowboy would shut down. Huge positive and would immediately improve Thailand's image. 

 

In short, you would have a cleaner, less nefarious Thailand and most Thai people would be jumping for joy and a few rich Thais would lose their businesses. 

[zyphodb]

19 hours ago, Sticky Wicket said:

It would hit certain pockets of the country hard.

A lot of Issan has been funded over the years by expats.

When 'John' gives "Fon' 10,000 baht that money then splits off into various avenues and assists a lot of people.

Extrapolate that and you are talking about affecting a lot of lives

Yes, but not lives that anyone in power cares about...

[saengd]

6 hours ago, sucit said:

I think what would happen is rich resort owners would go out of business. A lot of the tourist transport boats and taxis would close. In short, a relatively small amount of people would suffer. 

 

I think Thai people would love it, at least the ones not directly tied to the industry, which is the vast majority. The beaches and parks would clean up. Places like Pattaya and Soi Cowboy would shut down. Huge positive and would immediately improve Thailand's image. 

 

In short, you would have a cleaner, less nefarious Thailand and most Thai people would be jumping for joy and a few rich Thais would lose their businesses. 

You vastly overrate the significance of Western tourist spending to the Thai economy, whilst you were sleeping Asia became wealthy and guess what, those Asians are now spending more than ever before. And those poor Thai people, the ones that have no money, over 12 million of them will take overseas holidays this year, up from 4 million just ten years ago, rich resorts and taxi's will do just fine if we all leave.

[legend49]

19 hours ago, DannyCarlton said:

Even given the dubious facts you have quoted, they don't support the conclusion you have drawn.

He seems to thing expats dont buy food, drink and entertainment, petrol, services to vehicles and housing list is endless; that was not factored into the statement.

[saengd]

1 minute ago, legend49 said:

He seems to thing expats dont buy food, drink and entertainment, petrol, services to vehicles and housing list is endless; that was not factored into the statement.

Perhaps you should read the OP again to better understand what he wrote. He allowed every western expat 1 million baht per year and then tripled it, is that not enough for groceries or are you an exceptionally big eater!

[30la]

Is not only about money!

[saengd]

2 minutes ago, 30la said:

Is not only about money!

This thread is, that's what the title and the OP say!

[Momofarang]

16 hours ago, brokenbone said:

its more important to look at the yearly injection into the economy,

i think its reasonable to assume a falang on average spend 50k per month,

600.000 per year, then multiply with how many there are for the yearly injection.

this is typically not investment, but pure spending,

unlike chinese that typically spend their money wisely on investment

 

You are correct in that the OP is flawed when he mixes up assets in banks with GDP, which is an indicator of activity. By spending our money here we tend to create demand which may be met either by local production or imports.

However I believe your figure of 50k is too low I'd expect it to be at least double that, in average. If it was 50 it would give us a clue to understand the current trend to push us out of the country.

[saengd]

Just now, Momofarang said:

You are correct in that the OP is flawed when he mixes up assets in banks with GDP, which is an indicator of activity. By spending our money here we tend to create demand which may be met either by local production or imports.

However I believe your figure of 50k is too low I'd expect it to be at least double that, in average. If it was 50 it would give us a clue to understand the current trend to push us out of the country.

The assumption in the OP is that the money in the bank each year, 3 million per Western expat, is recycled every year, until the point when they leave - that money is cash flow, it is not dormant static funds, it is money that is being spent in the Thai economy every year hence it is a GDP component.

[IAMHERE]

If this were true we'd of all been kicked out by now.

[Brayka]

Where you got that 200.000 number , not so long ago I read figures between 600.000 till 800.000  estimate by the Thai government. Not that it makes a real change in the economy, but it’s impact it’s a little higher!

[saengd]

Just now, Brayka said:

Where you got that 200.000 number , not so long ago I read figures between 600.000 till 800.000  estimate by the Thai government. Not that it makes a real change in the economy, but it’s impact it’s a little higher!

If you read the OP there is a link showing where the number of 200k comes from, if you have a different number and can provide a link for it I'd be interested to see it. But remember, the OP is talking about Western expats and retirees only, nothing else.

[Gracas]

It's not the amount of Baht that the expats spread around that would be missed. It's the pleasure and joy that they give to the Thai people. How would they ever recover.

[RocketDog]

20 hours ago, Denim said:

Yes, but if I leave the local female population will be devastated.

 

Everything will grind to a halt.

No, everything will keep grinding but you just won't be the grinder or grindee anymore. ????

[Yinn]

13 hours ago, Matzzon said:

You are very good at ppfffffft. I guess that is the normal word for you to use to replace that you actually are totally lost.

 

Pfffft

 

 

13 hours ago, Matzzon said:

 

Everyone? Yeah it´s you talking about everyone, when you state 99%. Very close to 100%, right? Or maybe there is more is your lost world. 

You lost. Not me.

 

13 hours ago, Matzzon said:

Also all the short repeating replies with the same meaning, shows clearly that this is different subjects that you do not want to go further into. That´s usually a sign of beeing afraid to develop a discussion and present something you really know as a fact.

Boring to help you understand everything because

1) you so wrong

2) you not listen

3) you like to argue.

[grifbel]

21 hours ago, Roy Baht said:

Western 200,000 expats in Thailand, that’s a mix of farang retirees and those working here

Read no further after this.  Your entire hypothesis is invalidated by false assumptions and definitions.  Retirees are not expats, but rather, temporary non-taxpaying foreign residents. The vast majority of these contribute only through personal consumption, on a very restricted budget. At the same time, they actually benefit from local social infrastructure without contributing to it, and are therefore a net economic cost to society.  However, the positive economic impact of real working expats such a those on full expat packages, Japanese and other foreign investors is huge.

[zaZa9]

20 hours ago, Matzzon said:

Ooh! Thanks! Great to know we have expats that thinks and count the same as the people at the top.

I thought about joining the debate , but when you see the stupidity on offer you just move on ...

[Yinn]

13 hours ago, Matzzon said:

You must be totally diluted! What I did was an argumentative reply to her first post, and then I get short half ar5ed replies created to avoid a discussion about the subjects, which I also confronted.

The big question is why you think you have a part in that. Do you somehow, like me, believe that Yinn can´t produce answers for herself? The difference is that you come running like a knight in shining armour, to defend. Like always, you were not very well read in, though. 

No, Traubert agree with me.

nobody agree with you.

Think.

[RocketDog]

19 hours ago, talahtnut said:

If the Dollar goes tits up, we may all have to leave.

Very true if all your assets are in green colored paper. 

On the other hand if you have some assets in foreign or Thai (!) currency or precious metals (such as Thai gold jewelry) you will fare much better. 

 

All good things come to an end and the days of 'King Dollar' are dwindling. 

 

Food for thought. All eggs in one basket issue. Asset hedging is only prudence. 

[moe666]

21 hours ago, Beggar said:

You are right. We expats are a burden for this country. Compared to tourists we don't spend a lot, block valuable rooms that could be occupied by such tourists and are a special burden for the immigration. I hope nobody of the government reads your post and thinks too much about it ????

Tourist will not be interested in my rooms to expensive

[saengd]

16 minutes ago, grifbel said:

Read no further after this.  Your entire hypothesis is invalidated by false assumptions and definitions.  Retirees are not expats, but rather, temporary non-taxpaying foreign residents. The vast majority of these contribute only through personal consumption, on a very restricted budget. At the same time, they actually benefit from local social infrastructure without contributing to it, and are therefore a net economic cost to society.  However, the positive economic impact of real working expats such a those on full expat packages, Japanese and other foreign investors is huge.

The average Western retiree in Thailand, classified as an expat for the purposes of this exercise, spends at a rate of at least three time that of the average Thai., in the example in the OP he/she spends at 5.5 times the average Thai person. Not only does the retiree pay VAT on most of that expense they also pay tax on bank savings and taxes associated with large purchases such as real estate, cars and motorbikes and household appliances. To suggest that Western retirees don't pay tax in Thailand is naive.

 

And the ratio of Western expats on full expat packages to western retirees must be very small since localization of the workforce has been going on since at least the mid 1990's!

[ChristianBlessing]

If the OP wishes to ask us to "...look at the math" he would do well to avoid fuzzy comments such as:

 

"Let’s say there are Western 200,000 expats..."
"Let’s be really generous and say that each farang expat..."
"OK, let’s triple the figure and say it’s 3% of GDP or even 5..."

 

State real, verifiable numbers and then we can do real math. Otherwise just post a single comment: "In my opinion, if all expats left: Little impact on Thai economy" and be done with it.

[saengd]

Just now, ChristianBlessing said:

If the OP wishes to ask us to "...look at the math" he would do well to avoid fuzzy comments such as:

 

"Let’s say there are Western 200,000 expats..."
"Let’s be really generous and say that each farang expat..."
"OK, let’s triple the figure and say it’s 3% of GDP or even 5..."

 

State real, verifiable numbers and then we can do real math. Otherwise just post a single comment: "In my opinion, if all expats left: Little impact on Thai economy" and be done with it.

I think the OP probably made his argument so broad brush and absolutely worst case in recognition of the large number of mathematically challenged readers on TVF, quite rightly so! But if you wanted to zero in on a more precise number, you should go for it, we'll all listen with interest.

[moe666]

21 hours ago, saengd said:

In that example Fon would just go to Pattaya and get 1,000 baht each from ten tourists, job done.

Good luck with her getting 10 a day in the current economy. As a girl told me one time, selling sex is hard work. If you notice I did not say having sex. Between the guys who do not want to pay after the fact, the drunks and you name it is hard work

[Elkski]

As we can see we would  get as many opinions as professional  economists  who tried.  Lack of good numbers and spending habits means this a butt guess at best.  I can say I'm seeing lots more independent Chinese couples and small groups all over.   At the airport 21st  the line for vat refunds was 150 m long and the number of boxes going home on luggage carts  was massive.  Yiu never see western people shipping so much loot home.  I just wish the Chinese were more friendly, didnt logjam sidewalks and airport walkways and didnt talk so loudly on the phone or with their  friends.    But I think they are here to stay.  But the pollution needs to be less than where they live.  

[saengd]

2 minutes ago, moe666 said:

Good luck with her getting 10 a day in the current economy. As a girl told me one time, selling sex is hard work. If you notice I did not say having sex. Between the guys who do not want to pay after the fact, the drunks and you name it is hard work

I think the poster talked about one month, not one day.

[rocketdave]

I tend to use taxis to get about here (Pattaya) and use the one same firm for years.

Yesterday coming back to my condo O joked with the driver about all his millionaire Chinese and Indian customers. His reply about both groups was less than polite, in fact he said if it wasn't for the expats he'd have no work, no income to pay for his car and licences etc. So all you miserable (add own title) out there stop knocking your own group of people, it shows a mental health problem at very least.

[newnative]

   Certainly the country would survive.  The impact would be most felt at the human level, with all the many Thais that depend on expats to support their small shops, businesses, and independent jobs.  A tourist here for a few days likely won't use a laundry or get a haircut but expats do throughout the year.  Ditto for gardeners, pool cleaners, car washes, repair shops, handymen, painters, maids, and many others.  Those that do get tourists depend on expats to get them through the low season.