China's coronavirus infections hit daily record, deaths climb to 304

[WaveHunter]

49 minutes ago, shadowofacloud said:

1. OK, I agree here. It is about the time-frame analyzed. If you consider the whole period, starting from 8 Dec, you can talk about exponential growth. The study you have quoted also took a partial time frame - starting on 10th Jan. However, the last 10 days or so, starting from when proper measurement, reporting and treatment began is mostly linear.

 

2. Stop playing on emotions, as this is simply pathetic. People died, die and will die, it is a simple fact of life. 60 people per day die on the roads of Thailand, tens of thousands of influenza every year. And the mortality rate discussed is based on the _current_ state of knowledge - whether is full or accurate is another question. But unless you can provide better data, the issue is closed.

 

And as far as having the full picture - we will most likely never have it. So the only reasonable thing to do is focus on the data available and extrapolate from there.

With all due respect, what you say is COMPLETE NONSENSE!  The number of new cases and confirmed deaths has been increasing exponentially and continues to do so in China...and at an extremely alarming rate, even surpassing SARS!

 

Here are the actual raw numbers as of Jan 31 (in yellow) and the projections based on current 40% increase per day in reported cases (which so far is holding), and a Serious Complication Rate (ICU bed required) which has been holding at 20%:

 

There is ABSOLUTELY no question that we are still in an exponential Log phase when you view the numbers graphed below!

 

If you look at the data on a log chart (as of January 28, you get this which shows that it is still flat-lin exponential and thus still in the logarithmic phase:

 

If you compare this to SARS on a corrected time-series basis, you can see that n-CoV is increasing in a MUCH more exponential pattern than SARS did:

 

Add to this that the virus has an R-Naught of around 2.0, but new virus modeling studies (not yet peer reviewed) indicate that it may be possibly as high as 4.1 (meaning that for every infected person, up to 4 healthy people will be infected), and you have a genuine health emergency that could very easily become a pandemic of epic proportions if people just put on a "happy face" and pretend there is nothing to worry about!

 

It's really time to stop all the nonsense of downplaying this virus, and take it seriously!

 

I have posted quite a bit on all of this in other threads and back up EVERYTHING with science-based factual sources!  Just check out my other posts and you'll find a lot of convincing data!

 

Truth is, I believe we will prevail in containing this virus as we have always done in the past...BUT it will be, and always has been the result of of people taking such outbreaks VERY seriously and not just burying their heads in the sand and putting on a "happy face" like there is nothing to be concerned about.

Edited February 2, 2020 by WaveHunter

[tomazbodner]

There's so much fake news in media now it's hard to know what's true and what's not.

- India researchers claim WARS (new nickname for this virus) was engineered and they found some parts inserted that only HIV had (https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1) - note this was refuted by the first researcher who bothered to respond. Whole paper is available for download, but not peer reviewed yet

- US senator Tom Cotton (R), claims that first case including patient zero weren't even at the Seafood market of Wuhan.

This image (on same thread) seems to show the same, however there isn't a proof they were first infected, nor is the whole story known to make conclusions.

 

- Then we have Trump team saying US could profit from corona virus (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51276323) With one Senator, Don Beyer (R) expressing a statement that I can only understand as his awe at Trump's team's loss of humanity

 

 

- And final one, South China Morning post reported this morning about Avian Flu outbreak just south of Hebei, in Hunan province (https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/china-reports-h5n1-bird-flu-outbreak-hunan-wuhan-coronavirus-12381796)

 

It surely is a busy Sunday... in the meantime - unrelated - if you're in Thailand and virus doesn't kill you, pollution might. Thailand currently has the worst air quality in the World. See I knew we could do it. Finally a Number #1! 3-4 more days before it starts improving slightly.

 

 

[metisdead]

A post containing unsubstantiated claims about the coronavirus infection rate has been removed.  Please post a link to back up your claims. 

[Skallywag]

1 hour ago, Tayaout said:

been following the number for over a week (there was like 400 cases in China and 0 outside) and it increases exponentially 

O deaths outside China means good control for now.  "exponentially" is a relative term, from 20 to 300 deaths in 7 days is certainly a quick rise.

If you doubled the 20 every day for 7 days you would get 2,540 which is one way to look at exponential growth. 

[Skallywag]

26 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

Here are the actual raw numbers as of Jan 31 (in yellow) and the projections based on current 40% increase per day in reported cases

The death rate is not increasing at 40% and none have died outside of China (so far).  

Some trying to be positive here, but agree every virus outbreak gets worse in our world.

People who have taken too many antibiotics in their lives are actually more likely to suffer or die as new antibiotic treatments may not be effective on them

 

[URMySunshine]

This may turn out to be a god sent boon to an authoritarian state to deepen and enrich it's total control over a population. 

 

 

[WaveHunter]

37 minutes ago, Skallywag said:

The death rate is not increasing at 40% and none have died outside of China (so far).  

Some trying to be positive here, but agree every virus outbreak gets worse in our world.

People who have taken too many antibiotics in their lives are actually more likely to suffer or die as new antibiotic treatments may not be effective on them

 

I did NOT say the death rate was increasing at 40% per day; I said the number of new confirmed cases was increasing at that rate!

 

At this stage of the outbreak, death rate is not even an important or verifiable statistic, and won't really be known until it all can be viewed from a historical perspective. 

 

Far more worrisome is how quickly the medical infrastructure will become overwhelmed by this if containment efforts are not effective (and so far they are proving far from effective!)

 

At the current 40% increase per day in reported cases (which so far is holding), and a Serious Complication Rate (ICU bed required) which has been holding at 20%, there will not be enough ICU beds to accommodate the seriously sick...in less than one month!  THAT IS THE REAL DANGER!

 

If projections for new cases remain exponential and given that the Serious Complication Rate is holding at 20%, here are what the results would be:

Consider that by day 18, there would be over 400,000 patients requiring ICU care.  To put this in perspective, consider the fact that the entire USA only has about 100,000 ICU beds! 

 

Whether this stays only in China or a serious pandemic occurs, it would simply overwhelm the medical infrastructure's ability to accommodate the seriously sick people in far less than a single month!

 

To me, that is a SERIOUS scenario of epic proportions! 

 

I am not saying it WILL happen, but the potential is very real, especially since this is a very contagious virus with a R-Naught of at least 2.0, and possibly as high as 4.1 (according to the latest, though yet peer reviewed virus modeling studies).

 

What this new R-naught number means is there is far more likelihood that this could become a global) pandemic than is presently believed, despite current success at containment in places like the USA.

 

I'm not being Mr. Doom and Gloom.  I believe we will prevail in controlling the outbreak through containment, but it will be the result of people taking this outbreak seriously and not merely putting on a "happy face" claiming that all is OK and everything is under control, because at present, it is not!

 

 

 

Edited February 2, 2020 by WaveHunter

[justin case]

look at the PATENT OFFICE for CORONA VIRUS !!!! no joke

[shadowofacloud]

53 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

With all due respect, what you say is COMPLETE NONSENSE!  The number of new cases and confirmed deaths has been increasing exponentially and continues to do so in China...and at an extremely alarming rate, even surpassing SARS!

Please, let's keep it civil. Take a look at my analysis below:

 

As you can see, the on the first chart (the percentage of new cases in relation to the value from previous day), we are actually in a downward trend (see dotted line).

 

The second chart is the number of cases in total. It obviously is rising (in a couple of minutes I will post the same chart corrected by the number deaths and recovered), but it is not dramatic. The last observation shows a bigger rise, but this may be an outlier - we do not know yet.

 

I will repeat, what I've said before - keep calm and carry on. We should be aware of the risks and watch the data, but at this stage, there is no need to be overly concerned. In my opinion.

 

Data taken from here: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Edited February 2, 2020 by shadowofacloud

[RichardColeman]

Wuhan Biotech ? Where's that logo from

[shadowofacloud]

Any one has a table with deaths/recovered per day since Jan 20? Cannot find it online.

[spiekerjozef]

Already almost half the amount of people dead compared to SARS but this new one in just a few weeks time.

Very worrying indeed.

[khunpa]

27 minutes ago, shadowofacloud said:

Please, let's keep it civil. Take a look at my analysis below:

 

As you can see, the on the first chart (the percentage of new cases in relation to the value from previous day), we are actually in a downward trend (see dotted line).

 

The second chart is the number of cases in total. It obviously is rising (in a couple of minutes I will post the same chart corrected by the number deaths and recovered), but it is not dramatic. The last observation shows a bigger rise, but this may be an outlier - we do not know yet.

 

I will repeat, what I've said before - keep calm and carry on. We should be aware of the risks and watch the data, but at this stage, there is no need to be overly concerned. In my opinion.

 

Data taken from here: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Here a new forecast study.

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext

 

 

[shadowofacloud]

4 minutes ago, khunpa said:

Here a new forecast study.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext

Thank you - read that earlier today. Some bits quite unnerving, but the bottom line cautiously optimistic:

 

Nevertheless, it might still be possible to secure containment of the spread of infection such that initial imported seeding cases or even early local transmission does not lead to a large epidemic in locations outside Wuhan. To possibly succeed, substantial, even draconian measures that limit population mobility should be seriously and immediately considered in affected areas, as should strategies to drastically reduce within-population contact rates through cancellation of mass gatherings, school closures, and instituting work-from-home arrangements, for example.

 

Draconian measures already in place in China, in my opinion.

 

[Basil B]

9 hours ago, GeorgeCross said:

American Senator hinting heavily it may have come from Wuhan Bio Lab - yikes

 

 

 

Here we go again...

Americans having a go a the the Chinese without any hard evidence, should keep it shut until they can prove it, it could have been manufactured by the Chinese but at this time the is no hard evidence.

[tomazbodner]

5 minutes ago, Basil B said:

Here we go again...

Americans having a go a the the Chinese without any hard evidence, should keep it shut until they can prove it, it could have been manufactured by the Chinese but at this time the is no hard evidence.

Well, with US profiting from this (or so Willbur Ross believes), it would as well be plausible that CIA released engineered virus in Wuhan. There's the same amount of evidence, which is - more or less NONE.

 

It is one thing for people to come up with conspiracy theories, but it's a completely different ballgame when politicians jump on the bandwagon and start saying stuff like this as if it is a matter of fact. Their words are picked up by media, and some people still believe that, because it was on TV or internet, it must be true.

[URMySunshine]

5 hours ago, shadowofacloud said:

Thank you - read that earlier today. Some bits quite unnerving, but the bottom line cautiously optimistic:

 

Nevertheless, it might still be possible to secure containment of the spread of infection such that initial imported seeding cases or even early local transmission does not lead to a large epidemic in locations outside Wuhan. To possibly succeed, substantial, even draconian measures that limit population mobility should be seriously and immediately considered in affected areas, as should strategies to drastically reduce within-population contact rates through cancellation of mass gatherings, school closures, and instituting work-from-home arrangements, for example.

 

Draconian measures already in place in China, in my opinion.

 

I think draconian isn't matter of opinion but a matter of fact !

[shadowofacloud]

Some more fiddling with stats:

 

Mortality rate actually falling.

 

My prediction for next set of data (Feb 02):  infected: 15973; new cases: 1673; deaths 340. Purely subjective, super basic statistics.

[Crazy Alex]

18 minutes ago, Basil B said:

Here we go again...

Americans having a go a the the Chinese without any hard evidence, should keep it shut until they can prove it, it could have been manufactured by the Chinese but at this time the is no hard evidence.

 

Wow, I never thought of the Lancet as a nationalist organization. According to Wikipedia:

 

The Lancet is a weekly peer-reviewed general medical journal. It is among the world's oldest, most prestigious, and best known general medical journals.^[1]

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lancet

 

I'm not sure how makes a leap to attacking Americans because they cite an organization like the Lancet. Perhaps you can articulate where the Lancet is going wrong with their scientific analysis on the issue? Or is there some track record they have as to why we should trust them over the people who stand to benefit the most from spreading disinformation?

[WaveHunter]

6 hours ago, shadowofacloud said:

Please, let's keep it civil. Take a look at my analysis below:

 

As you can see, the on the first chart (the percentage of new cases in relation to the value from previous day), we are actually in a downward trend (see dotted line).

 

The second chart is the number of cases in total. It obviously is rising (in a couple of minutes I will post the same chart corrected by the number deaths and recovered), but it is not dramatic. The last observation shows a bigger rise, but this may be an outlier - we do not know yet.

 

I will repeat, what I've said before - keep calm and carry on. We should be aware of the risks and watch the data, but at this stage, there is no need to be overly concerned. In my opinion.

 

Data taken from here: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

I am sorry if I sounded confrontational.  Not my intention. My apologies.  However, I strongly disagree with your interpretations of data, or your assessment of actual state of affairs concerning this crisis. 

 

Also keep in mind that ALL data being presented to the world right now is highly questionable since the source is the China’s central Government, The Communist Central Party.  It is heavily filtered for political reasons and hardly credible compared to what is really going on there right now.

 

The growth of total number of confirmed cases depicted in this graph tells the real story:

 

I double-checked my math for each delta (according to the raw data.  The day to day changes in new confirmed cases since the 25th of January range from 26% to 40% daily, and there was only one day that it dropped below 26%. 

 

The lowest delta I saw was 15% on Jan 30 and it was probably an anomaly because the next day it was back to 28% where it had been the day before on the 29th, but there has absolutely been no downward trend as of yet..

 

The last few days confirmed cases have been increasing at a daily rate of 28%.  

 

Just to note, early on I was using 40% because that's what it was on the day I was doing spreadsheet projections.  I should have been more conservative but irregardless, exponential increase is strongly in place.

 

Numbers aside, most of what I know about the current situation is coming from friends of mine living in Shenzhen who work in area hospitals as doctors and nurses.  Even though they are removed from the ground-zero of Wuhan, they are on the front lines because they work in area hospitals and they know what is really going on...and they are VERY scared!

 

Their view is that information coming from the Central government is heavily skewed in order to avoid internal public panic and to “save face” for how poorly the crisis has been managed to date.  The government-sanctioned perspective is entirely at odds with what they are actually experiencing inside of the hospitals!

 

Right now, anyone (including doctors, scientists, and journalist) who post to WeChat or other social media, criticizing how the government is handling this are being arrested under the “rumors Law” which carries a penalty of up to seven years in jail!  

 

Anecdotally, according to the doctors and nurse in Shenzhen that I know, the number of new confirmed cases continues to rise exponentially and though numbers may be all over the place, they are certain it continues to be an exponential increase, and that the Serious Complication Rate (cases serious enough to require ICU care) is indeed at around 20%.

 

If anything, the situation is even far worse than I'm describing because the hospitals are already being overwhelmed with new suspected cases to a degree that they are having trouble running test kits and even having a shortage of test kits, so confirmed cases are probably growing faster than I'm describing.

 

The significance is very clear.  If this exponential trend continues, it will be only a matter of weeks before the number of serious cases requiring ICU beds will exceed the supply.  The medical infrastructure will be overwhelmed, and that is when the mortality rate will then skyrocket!  THAT is the real danger, and it is only weeks away if the exponential trend continues.

 

If this were not a genuine crisis in the making, the Chinese would not feverishly be building new hospitals designed specifically to deal with n-CoV 24/7 around the clock at breakneck speed.  That simple fact is really at odds with the "happy-face" proclamations that all is under control and there is nothing to worry about.

 

 

What's more, new Virus modeling indicates the R0 may actually be closer to 4.1 which is almost twice as infectious as first described…so twice as infectious as first thought.  Note that this study has not yet been peer-reviewed but should still be taken seriously.

 

Remember that there are over 5 million people from Wuhan that escaped containment right at the beginning of Lunar New Year when the biggest migration of people in the world happens every year!  That means that many of those people who may have been infected may have travelled out of China before any destination airports were screening or quarantining incoming passengers.  

 

Many of those people, if infected, could still be asymptomatic yet capable of spreading the virus, so these 5 million people are a serious “Wild Card” right now, and we still won’t know the significance they will play for another week or two. 

 

You say there is no need to be concerned?  In light of all the above, I seriously disagree.

 

I am not being Mr. Doom and Gloom.  Fact is, I am confident that this viral outbreak will be contained as every other serious viral outbreak has been in our lifetimes, but it will not happen as long as governments, health organizations and the public continue to put on a “happy face” suggesting that all is OK and everything is under control…because right now that is far from true, and it is proving increasingly clear that this n-CoV virus is far different than viruses of the past.

 

 

 

Edited February 2, 2020 by WaveHunter

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Latest daily report from the Thai Dept. of Disease Control for Sat., Feb. 1:

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no29-010163.pdf

 

Apart from Thailand's 19 confirmed virus cases, the number of potential virus cases where the Thai authorities supposedly are waiting for lab test results back climbed further to 313 cases, up from single digits about two weeks back.

 

And, this was their recap on the current number of hospitalizations for people with the virus or suspected of having it: 264 people in hospitals:

 

Quote

Under treatment (Government hospitals: 136 cases, Private hospitals: 112 cases, and Bamrasnaradura Infectious Disease Institute: 15 cases,)

 

PS I know the details number falls 1 short of the total number. I can't explain that. Those are the numbers the Thai DDC is using, and they oftentimes don't add up in any comprehensible, logical way.

 

 

Also, a total of 382 people who have been under investigation for the virus, including 71 who have already returned home. Most of those, of course, were not confirmed as having the coronavirus, but instead of a wide variety of other illnesses, various flu's, colds, even a diagnosed case of tonsillitis.

 

As of the DDC's status report for the period ending Saturday, Thailand at 19 still had the most confirmed coronavirus cases outside of China, trailed closed by Singapore at 16.

 

 

 

[metisdead]

Off topic trolling posts and replies have been removed.  This has nothing to do with Republicans, or the impeachment of Donald Trump. 

[Salerno]

7 hours ago, Skallywag said:

O deaths outside China means good control for now.

You missed the news of the guy in the Phillipines.

[Basil B]

23 minutes ago, Crazy Alex said:

 

Wow, I never thought of the Lancet as a nationalist organization. According to Wikipedia:

 

The Lancet is a weekly peer-reviewed general medical journal. It is among the world's oldest, most prestigious, and best known general medical journals.^[1]

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lancet

 

I'm not sure how makes a leap to attacking Americans because they cite an organization like the Lancet. Perhaps you can articulate where the Lancet is going wrong with their scientific analysis on the issue? Or is there some track record they have as to why we should trust them over the people who stand to benefit the most from spreading disinformation?

The Lancet questioned the Chinese versions of events... they certainly did not even suggest it came from Wuhan Bio Lab.

 

I suggest this is a Republican defecting attention from issues closer to home.

[WaveHunter]

1 minute ago, Salerno said:

You missed the news of the guy in the Phillipines.

Yes, first confirmed case of death due to N-CoV outside of China.  And he was in his early 40's.  So much for this only affected people in their 60's or older.  

 

Not good news at all ????

 

[Tayaout]

4 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

Yes, first confirmed case of death due to N-CoV outside of China.  And he was in his early 40's.  So much for this only affected people in their 60's or older.  

 

Not good news at all ????

 

It was a Chinese coming from Wuhan so technically it's and "exported" death. He also had 2-3 infections already... 

Edited February 2, 2020 by Tayaout

[Salerno]

But he was from Wuhan.

Edited February 2, 2020 by Salerno
Snap 555

[WaveHunter]

7 hours ago, Skallywag said:

O deaths outside China means good control for now.  "exponentially" is a relative term, from 20 to 300 deaths in 7 days is certainly a quick rise.

If you doubled the 20 every day for 7 days you would get 2,540 which is one way to look at exponential growth. 

With all due respect, you are incorrect.  The first death outside of China from n-CoV has occurred today in the Philippines. ????

 

The man was in his early 40's and he had no pre existing illnesses, according to the official report from the Undersecretary of Health.  So much for this only affecting elderly people or those in compromised health.

 

Edited February 2, 2020 by WaveHunter

[Crazy Alex]

5 minutes ago, Basil B said:

The Lancet questioned the Chinese versions of events... they certainly did not even suggest it came from Wuhan Bio Lab.

 

I suggest this is a Republican defecting attention from issues closer to home.

I don't see where Tom Cotton suggested where the virus came from. Perhaps I missed something in the post you are reacting to.

 

As for "deflecting", I don't find that valid. A US Senator deals with many issues, both at home and abroad. To think he should simply shut up about a very serious health issue because you think he should be talking about ______________ instead doesn't seem rational to me.

[Dumbastheycome]

7 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

Go and read the directives under the  WHO PHEIC. One item in particular;

Countries should place emphasis on:

- reducing human infection, and prevention of secondary transmission and international spread;

There is not going to be a "patient 0" and we already know that this is human to human and fomite transission based. Potential vectors? Not relevant.  We do not even know what 

the source of SARS was  or what its  reservoir is, and yet that crisis was managed.  Like 

SARS, transmission is believed to occur during the second week of illness. Unlike SARS, the infections have occurred outside of health care settings, so  similar measures of control  will not be effective in stopping the spread of the disease. SARS was stopped because hospitals implemented  strict  infection  control protocols, not because of medication or a vaccine was  discovered. 

 

 

 

Can you give  reference to factual evidence SARS was stopped by protocols? Intervention and protocols most  certainly eventually had an effect in minimization of spread but it remains a mystery as to why it faded out other than the presumption that a mutation negative to itself resulted in halting further transmission. Medical intervention prevented a high  percentage of  deaths rather than prevented infection rates.

This  new  variant is related to  the SARS  virus but it can not be  assumed it  will  follow same path to disappearance in  risk. This new  virus is obviously easily transmitted  but  in terms of  fatal outcome is less lethal than  variants of influenza in the same at risk members of the  global population.

MERS is another Corona Virus that continues  to infect people to the extent of  known cases  reported to the WHO in the period of 2012 through to  2020 of 2056 cases and 862  associated  deaths which indicates a very  lethal outcome. Despite that fact it is no longer topical but remains quietly dangerous to people.

Are we reminded of it? No !

Instead we are subjected  to a new  wave of paranoia over a virus that is demonstrating a transmissable rate similar to influenza or  the common cold which to date statistically is no more lethal given timely medical intervention in serious cases.

The real concern is not the percentage of  fatalities as a result as it  is now which is  no more significant in real terms  than  current seasonal infections  as above but that it  unpredictably  mutates into a more lethal version. That is the core concern of virologists who can only observe outcome and advises limitation of spread which theoretically reduces possibility of transient mutation. 

There are many aspects involved in the global reaction that  IMO are being used strategically for a mixture of reasonable rationale, economic consideration and already sad manipulative political reason. 

There are at  least 500 Corona Virus variants identified as carried by Bats which are widely recognized as being the  primary source of SARS , MERS, and this new  variant that has transmuted to humans.

If people want to  be involved in paranoid considerations that implies that even by tomorrow morning  1 of them could have mutated into another pathogen potentially capable of total human annihilation ! Or  not.